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Joseph Stiglitz writes that keeping the dollar as the reserve currency is no longer the option. He tells us that it comes with some hidden costs such as a weaker global economy. Having developing countries keep hundreds of billions of dollars in the US in low interest earning reserves makes no sense considering the needs of developing countries, and the improved prospects for the USA and Europe in exports to a growing developing country economies. He points out that a new global reserve currency, with an orderly transition, may be the most important reform to ensure the longterm health of the world's economy. Its bad for the USA to keep exporting T-bills, says Stiglitz, as it does not create jobs. And its bad for all concerned as it lowers global economic growth. Especially he says when it is so unseemly for developing countries not to use the money to improve living standards in their own countries, with the help of exports from developed countries, that in the end improves global growth and the global future....

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The Economist magazine says Mr. Trump's claim that he could fix things because he is an outsider is now quickly proving to be false. The lack of experience works against the Trump administration as it stumbles from one crisis to another. The tweets that were used to turn voter sentiment against opponents now work the other way. There are other problems that are noted here but not emphasized to the extent they need to be. Mr. Trump, as Peggy Noonan, a Reagan aide, has pointed out in the WSJ, risks alienating the very blue collar vote, and older voters whose interests he claimed to defend. This happened with the Ryan Republican House health care bill as millions of poor Americans approaching retirement were one of the worst affected groups. The Economist points out that the next project to tackle tax reform has the same possible consequences for the Trump blue collar base, as it says Republican plans for tax reform are seen as regressive. Tax reform has eluded previous administrations, and requires more experience in building coalitions which the Trump administration lacks in its confrontational attitude towards Congressmen on both sides of the aisle who disagree with him. Improving the U.S. trade position, infrastructure investment are other areas that the administration plans to tackle, yet the first 100 days show that the lack of experience and the lack of a calm composed mind is hurting the Trump administration, to the point of policies that hurt the very voters who put their faith in the Trump administration to improve things. A similar process is unfolding in Britain as it faces a Brexit negotiation that the Economist points out has been badly handled by prime minister Theresa May, and could lead to worsening the economy if no deal is reached because the European Union sees that it is not in its interest to do so, and Ms. May realizes only later that she has taken nationalist sentiment a bit too far for a European economic arrangement to work and provide mutual benefit. A continent wide economic arrangement that it was the wisdom of past leaders from Britain, France and Germany to support for over six decades is not easily undone by one vote, or one government. ...

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Though she is not popular with Angela Merkel's wing of the CDU as shown in comments here in DW.com, Annalena Baerbock through her experience as Foreign Minister and her unconventional style, her habit of respect for the dignity of the many nation states in the UN, her natural empathy, may actually be a better choice today for the UN than a German career foreign service diplomat. Different issues are faced by the United Nations than the domestic and European centric issues faced in Berlin and in the approach to government in the Federal Republic. She has often been a keen listener and an eager student of international affairs in her interactions with other countries and cultures, and Baerbock may be an underappreciated asset of the Federal Republic of Germany in the early decades of the 21st century.

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Short time work programs, paid leave, aid to small business for employee retention with the government paying a big percentage of wages, and unemployment benefits till companies rehire employees with government paying for this, are all different ways in which the U.S. and Europe are coping with the coronavirus crisis.  In the U.S. 22 million have applied for unemployment benefits with the U.S. government picking up a substantial part of the wages till companies rehire these employees. In the UK the government has launched a program that gives 2500 pounds or $3100 to each worker each month upto 80% of the worker's pay. The money is sent to businesses for retaining employees. This could cover estimated 8.3 million workers in the UK at a cost of $52 billion. The U.S. has a similar program with the first phase $377 billion already distributed to small businesses which requires retention of employees for government forgiveness of these loans. The basic idea is retain employees who could stay at home or be in short work programs or work from home. The French government is paying the wages of 9.6 million workers, almost half of workers in the private sector by sending the money to 785,000 small businesses. In Germany the Kurzarbeit program covers 725,000 companies which supports the wages of employees in a downturn and is financed from a special fund. The cost for Germany, France and Spain is about $147 billion or 135 billion euros for such programs. The European Union will step in with a 100 billion euros loan package. ...

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Italy faces tighter restrictions and a national lockdown at Easter for the coronavirus, Italians who were the first to go into lockdown on March 10, 2020, now think they will be the last to exit lockdowns. The mood in Europe is of frustration with the slow vaccination drive and the failure to procure enough vaccine supplies and to approve vaccines in time. The US and Britain have vaccination drives that are moving rapidly leading to a reduction in cases and deaths. In Europe new cases are rising since mid February 2021, and there is the spread of the new variant first detected in the UK.  The variants make up 70% of new cases in France says Health Minister Olivier Veran. ICU's in France are 80% full. Elections in France in 2022 and in Germany in September 2021 are leading to government reluctance to impose tighter restrictions. The government strategy is now being questioned. Only 30% of Germans now have confidence in chancellor Merkel's ability to make competent decisions. The CDU's partner in the government, the SDU socialists have even less trust with SDU getting less than 10%. There are signs of a third wave of coronavirus in Germany resulting from variants of the virus, slow vaccinations, and reopenings. ...

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 Tom Suozzi is elected to the US House of Representatives from New York for the seat vacated by Rep. Santos. After Suozzi is sworn in Feb. 28 Republicans will have 219 seats to Democrats 213. The majority is so slim that when 3 Republicans opposed the impeachment of Homeland Secretary Mayorkas for immigration issues Speaker Johnson could get the impeachment passed only on the second try and that only by one vote. President Biden has called for a vote immediately in the House on an Ukraine aid bill after it passed in the US Senate 70-29 with 22 Republicans joining Democrats. 

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At 79 years, Wilbur Ross will be one of the oldest people serving in any administration, as he serves as Commerce Secretary in the Trump administration. Wilbur Ross is best known for the turnaround efforts in the steel industry. In 2002 he acquired LTV Corp, a third largest steel producer in the U.S. facing tough times and legacy costs, for $125 million in cash and $200 million in environmental liabilities. In 2005 he sold his International Steel Group to Arcelor Mittal for $4.5 billion, and is still an independent director on the Arcelor board. Ross's earlier experience was as a bankruptcy specialist at Rothschild Inc. in the 1970's working on restructurings at Texaco, TWA and Continental Airlines. Analyst Charles Bradford is cited in this report by WSJ's John Miller, who competed with Ross in restructuring proposals for failing assets, and describes Ross as working harder and being tougher to make the deals. Some of these restructurings involved cutting pensions and large layoffs. The entire U.S. steel industry faced problems from foreign competition and legacy costs at the time. This included representing bondholders for Taj Mahal Casino in Atlantic City. At the time Ross told creditors considering seizing the asset for a possible missed payment that it would be better to keep Trump in charge for Trump properties as they would be worth more with Trump inside. This led to Ross later providing critical backing for the Trump campaign and raising money from the business community. Mitt Romney had similiar work at Bain Capital in turnaround of failing companies, later turning to politics as Governor of Massachusetts, and 2012 Republican nominee for president. Both Romney and Ross have come under criticism for their role in cost cuts at companies involving layoffs and cutting worker benefits. ...

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Harris attended the Munich Security Conference 3 years in a row and met with world leaders in the last 2 years. She has also learned from working with Biden who was over a period of 30 years chairman or senior most member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. No other president comes close. Harris has as foreign policy adviser Phillip Brown who did his PhD. on French Gaullist security policy. Her close links and great understanding of India are also an asset as India is a key part of US policy in Asia with Japan and Australia, and is expected to be the third largest economy in the world over the next decade. This will help in setting economic policy along with foreign policy. Under Biden domestic policy worked hand in hand with foreign policy to achieve domestic policy goals of industrial strength and manufacturing in the US. Harris is likely to continue this policy approach. Harris is a close observer and learner of the conduct of economic policy under Biden, and can add in some ways to bring fresh look at foreign policy. ...

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China's central bank PBOC reduces interest rates to reduce borrowing costs of heavily indebted households. Households in China carry more debt than households in the US. Mortgage costs are a key part of the debt for households in China. It points to slowing of the economy in 2023.

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Seoul is one of the cities that is shrinking in size during the pandemic. House prices doubled during the period of the pandemic. An average price of a home just 2 years before the pandemic was 341 million won or $252,000 now it is 626 million won in 2022. More South Koreans are moving to wide open spaces with more room and clean air. Seoul's population has dropped below 10 million and could reach 7 million in 2050 as population moves out to smaller more livable towns and cities. Says one teacher who moved out there is a higher quality of life, homes are bigger, prices much lower, and children can go outside and play instead of being surrounded by crowded places. Places at kindergarden are free and extra curricular activities are far cheaper. Another development is also taking place. The model of young people getting a degree and working at alarge corporation in the center of Seoul is now fading as young people start their own ventures or business as entrepreneurs. They can then use the flexibility of locating in places outside Seoul to attract talented employees who no longer like life in the big city compared to the outdoors and larger spaces in smaller cities. ...

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Housing markets in US that went up with jump in demand during the pandemic, markets in Nashville, Austin, Phoenix, are now in downswing. Migration patterns turbocharged by the pandemic are now fading. Overbuilding, slowing in population growth and lack of affordability are creating  vacant office space, and unsold single family homes. From 2020 to 2022 Austin house prices jumped by 60% with very low borrowing costs,, now in 2024 they are down 11% from the peak in 2022. Demand  dropped with a surge in interest rates creating unaffordability. By 2023 home sales reached a 30 year low. even today Austin homes are seen as 35% overvalued as home prices increased at over twice the rate of per capita incomes of 22%.

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No other nation has such an amazing diviersity of languages, and equally amazing is the vitality of the free press in 11 major languages- Punjabi, Hindi, Gujarati, Marathi, Assamese, Oriya, in the north, and Tamil, Telugu, Malayalam, Karnataki in the south.

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After hurricane Helene only about 10% of FEMA workers are available for Hurricane Milton headed towards the Tampa Bay Area at 175 miles per hour.

Christopher Flavelle of NYT  points out FEMA desperately needs more funding and staff as it is responding simultaneously to many disasters. The full effects of climate change in more and more natural disasters all across the US have not been taken into account for the added funding and staffing needed. In this situation FEMA is spread thin causing other problems such as attrition and burnout and unfilled positions.

The Government Accountability Office report found in 2023 that 35% of FEMA's positions were unfilled, because of “rising disaster activity during the year, which increased burnout and employee attrition.”

There are also lot of people who are out of work in disaster areas who can be pulled in for disaster work.  

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How to know where inflation is headed is shown here in charts in the WSJ. One has to look at the charts for oil and energy costs, automobile costs which are about one fifth of the inflation, retail prices, travel costs, expectations that drive prices. As the pressures decrease for demand for goods in 2022 following a pandemic induced increase in demand the inflation is driven largely by energy and automobiles costs. Amazon is renting out the extra space that it does not need in warehouses is one report in WSJ today. Pharmaceutical companies such as J&J are also seeing an easing of demand as reported in WSJ. The bottlenecks at the port of Los Angeles are also easing with improved unloading of containers which eases flow of goods.

 

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UK joins Erasmus for 570 million pounds in 2027 one hundred thousand students benefit in first year. UK government says it will “create educational and training opportunities for British apprentices, further education students and adult learners, as well as those in higher education”. It is a new reset with the European Union and part of Labour's manifesto. This is one program that deserved support and has added great value to the community of Europe. It also opens up UK universities for EU students widening the impact to millions of students over a decade that understand the importance of the community of Europe. Shown here are students from UK at Humboldt University campus in Berlin.

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Why the lessons of Wuhan have not been understood correctly says this WSJ report. Merely putting lockdowns is not enough, systematic testing and quarantining of the affected persons is needed for controlling the outbreak. The outbreak in Wuhan was controlled by sending affected persons to makeshift hospitals and temporary quarantine centers. Two hospitals were quickly setup in Wuhan in 2-3 days to isolate affected people from the rest.

It is slow but this is being done as New York sets up a makeshift mobile hospital with 1000 beds at the Jacob Javits Convention Centre. And London sets up 4000 beds at a conference centre in the city.