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About 15% of Americans are below the official poverty line of $23,492 for family of four. In 1975 3.7% of Americans were in deep poverty, defined as being 50% below the offical poverty line. In 2012 the Census Bureau Population Survey shows 6.6% of Americans in deep poverty, close to doubling the percentage of people in deep poverty. States in the southern U.S. and midwest have some of the largest increase in deep poverty- Georgia's going from 5.3% in 2000 to 8.8% in 2012. Mississippi and Indiana show similiar increases. And in D.C. with high income levels the deep poverty rate is at 10.4%, affluent communities have high deep poverty rates in their midst, higher than rates in 2009.

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A study by the Project for Excellence in Journalism of the Pew Research center, looked at six major story lines that progressed for one week in July. What it found is that 83% of the reports in the local news media were basically repetitive and had no new information. Of the stories that contained new information, 95% came from old media, which then set the tone for narratives done by other media outlets. The study covered the Baltimore Sun, Washington Post, their websites, several smaller papers in the area, and new online news sites. Another finding was that on one story of budget cuts, the reporting done in 2009 was less than one third of that which was done for the budget cuts in 1991. This confirms the point made by traditional media that new online news outlets do little more than repetition and commentary.

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Robert Stavins of the environmental economics program at Harvard is cited in this NYT article by Coral Davenport. Stavin says that even with the change in policy favoring fossil under Trump administration the trend is towards using less fossil fuel and this trend is unlikely to change. This makes the claims of Trump that half a million jobs can be created with less regulation of the coal industry and shale oil industry, less likely. Industry is shifting away from coal for economic reasons and investors preferences, say experts. At the same time the progress away from fossil fuels is likely to be inadequate to avoid the worst effects of global warming, says Stavins. The change by industry is reflected in the decisions made by executives such as Nicholas Akins at American Electric Power, Ohio based electric power company. Akins tells NYT that he is making decisions for power generation 20, 30 and 40 years from now, and this assumes some form of carbon control. He says no question but that industry will move forward with cleaner energy and that means closing large coal facilities. The incoming Trump administration does not affect his policy. Another factor away from coal is dictated by economics- the availability of cheap natural gas from hydraulic fracturing. Incentives for renewable sources such as wind, solar, are not likely to change either say experts, because the solar panels and wind turbines are made in Republican and Democratic favoring districts and have support of Republicans in places like Arizona, Texas and Kansas. ...

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California Governor Schwarznegger points out that about 80 cents on every government dollar in California goes to public employees compensation and benefits. He says spending on state employees went up three times as fast as state revenues during the last decade. The result is crowding out of other programs such as higher education, parks and recreation. Because of large unfunded pension and retirement health-care benefit committments, California faces $550 billion of retirement debt. Costs of servicing that debt have grown at the rate of 15% for the last decade. The result is that California will spend more on retirement benefits than on higher education in 2010. Schwarznegger points to the fact that most employees in the private sector do not have $1 million in savings, but are in effect guaranteeing a retirement account of $1 million to state employees who retire at 55 years age- with a $3000 inflation protected check for the rest of their lives- as evidence that politicians in the State Assembly have made committments for the future that they cannot keep. And if they are kept they will leave little money for essential programs in education and public services....

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The story of Brazil's sugarcane plantation industry, and also of its ethanol producing region. A detailed account of the people who own these plantations and why they are reluctant to sell. The difficulties of getting into the sugarcane planation industry in brazil with its small owners and fragmented nature, and use of labor that violates Brazilian laws and international standards. These sgar cane plantations are located next to the mills because of the available infrastructure, and family owned sometimes handed down for generations, even hundreds of years, as Brazil was once a portuguese colony and a location for the slave trade which provided labor to the plantations. Note that most of the plantations use poorly paid labor and most of the work is done by hand, with the owners living in large ranchlike fazendas. Its probably another world for international investors not used to such a landscape. There are labor and environmental liabilities in owning some of these mills. Then most of these mills do not keep reliable accounting books and have tax and debt issues which cannot be easily resolved in Brazil's slow legal system. There are about 210 companies running 368 sugar and ethanol mills. The five largest companies generate only 17% os sales gives some idea of the fragmentation in the industry. There is also the perception that if large foreign companies like the ADM, Australia's CSR, Germany's Sudzucker AG, or even India's Bajaj Hindusthan, or others gain control over Brazil's ethanol industry Brazil's sugar producing regions would benefit less than if they get loans from large Brazilian or international banks and consolidate and modernize themselves, leading to political pressures in this direction. One such example is given here, one valuable sugar mill Vale de Rosario has been pursued by Bunge with an offer of $640 million for outright ownership, but Vale de rosario's board rejected the offer. Cargill looked at the possiblilty of owning 30% but was also turned away. Attempts at consolidation by Cosan, Brazil's largest sugar manufacturer, which made agreements with relatives owning 50.2 % of the shares in the company which has about a 100 relative clan with shares in the company over generations, also failed. The Biagi and Franco families which run the company made use of a defense under the cooperative's bylaws which allows the smallest shareholder to have 30 days to equal any takeover offer. The Biagis offered their own Santa Elisa mill to secure a $675 million credit line from Brazil's largest private bank Bradesco which was then used to buy out relatives who wanted the money. Now the Vale de Rosario and Santa Elisa mills have merged and are looking for international financing for the new company Santelisa Vale, which becomes the second largest after Cosan. Goldman Sachs plans to invest 200 million in Santelisa Vale.What this shows is the extraordinary lengths these family owned mills would go to to preserve their independent ways of operating and hand over to the next generation. Another difficulty is that industry experts are hard to recruit from these family owned companies as they have spent alifetime working there and remain loyal. With allthese obstacles the logic that the foreign companies can use Brazil to supply the world with ethanol from sugarcane does not take hold. Some of the attraction of sugarcane is that it contributes less to global warming than corn as a source for ethanol because sugarcane absorbs some of the CO2 when it is replanted. With a 51 cent per gallon tax credit subsidy on USA corn based ethanol and a 50 cent tariff on Brazilian ethanol imported into the USA, corn based ethanol can sustain in the US especially with the current high price of gasoline. Brazillian ethanol is more efficient to make from sugarcane and can be made to compete with gasoline even if gasoline prices drop. Instead there may be more years of unstable supply of ethanol from Brazil ahead which is what the Japanese in their negotiations for a supply of ethanol from Brazil have discovered since seeking such an agreeement since 2001. In the 1980's Brazilian sugar producers chasing high sugar prices lowered production of ethanol and left drivers without ethanol at the pumps. One company that is looking at another solution is Brenco, Brazilian Renewable Energy Company, a startup company backed by Ron Burkle and Vinod Khosla. It plans to put up its own green field sugar cane fields away from Sao Paulo state where the Brazilian sugar cane industry is presently concentrated. But this will take six year before the fields are ready for ethanol production. Henri Reichstul, a former head of Petroleo brasileiro, Brazil's national oil company, now leads Brenco. ...

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U.S. exports reached $2.34 trillion in 2014, increasing by $760 billion over the figure in 2009, according to the Commerce Department. Exports accounted for one third of the U.S. economic growth since 2009, say Pritzker and McNerney. Goods and services for exports supported 11.7 million U.S. jobs in 2014, and a Commerce Department 2010 paper shows these jobs pay 18% higher than jobs unrelated to exports. Commerce Department Secretary Pritzker, and McNerney, chairman of the President's Export Council, say free trade agreements and investment by private business is critical to supporting export promotion, but make no mention of the effect of the stronger dollar on future exports. In a period of a few months in 2015 the euro is approaching parity with the dollar and the yen is now 120 to the dollar, giving European and Japanese business a significant advantage, and raising questions about the strength of the U.S. recovery going forward.

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The Journal says Santorum needs to fit his economic point about helping manufacturing into a broader economic policy, and broaden his support base beyond the social conservative base. It says about Romney that he needs to find an authentic message that appeals to conservatives beyond catchphrases about repealing Obamacare. The problem it says is both candidates do not appeal to the whole Republican party. One candidate Romney lacks the fervor and firm convictions and the other Santorum has fervor and firm convictions about social issues, but can't do the same for economic issues and the other concerns of Republican voters.

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Two weeks after his election Donald Trump says the U.S. will not join the Trans Pacific Trade Agreement during his term in office. Barack Obama took seven years to negotiate the trade agreement which was opposed by trade unions, the auto industry and was unpopular in the midwestern U.S. because of the impact of trade in hollowing out the manufacturing sector. Here Frank Sieren of the DW.com points out that the agreement was not really about trade, as most of the gains of trade had already been realized according to experts. It was part of the "pivot to Asia" to maintain American dominance in the region, says Sieren. After China pulled together some Asian and European countries into its trade agreement, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the U.S. pushed for TPP as a counterweight to the China sponsored trade zone. China says it will try to integrate the countries in TPP into the trade zone it has sponsored. President Trump has said that the U.S. is better off negotiating agreements with each country and not getting into multilateral trade agreements. He fought the election campaign on the basis of the opposition to TPP and trade agreements that unfairly hurt American workers. This could have provided the 110,000 margin of victory in the states suffering from the hollowing out in manufacturing such as Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania. A similar hollowing out in Ontario favored Justin Trudeau's Liberals against the Conservatives in Canada's election. ...

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The WSJ's Juan Montes, in an exceptional report from Mexico City, tells the story behind a landmark achievement for Mexico- Pacto Por Mexico of Dec. 2, 2012. The major political parties of the right, centre and left forge an agreement for the way forward for Mexico- beyond monopolistic pricing and industry structures in Mexico that hurt consumers, to increase foreign investment and new technlogies to modernize the national oil company Pemex operations, change labor laws, and create a climate for higher growth. The pact is broad ranging, shows a grasp of the problems facing modern Mexico, and ranges from anti-monopoly laws to getting junk food out of schools considering Mexico's high obesity and diabetes rate. It covers 95 goals. It is hard to overstate the significance of this achievement for modern Mexico. Montes describes the initiative of the PRD leader Zambrones in rebranding his PRD party as a moderate left wing party open to new ideas. This happened after the departure of Lopez Obrador from the PRD to form his own party in September. Zambrano and PRD moderates brought up the idea based on what happened in a landmark deal in Spain in 1977, that helped transform Spain after decades of stagnation under the Franco dictatorship. Around July after the presidential election, PRD president Zambrano, and the PRD's Jesus Ortega, held meetings in Mexico City with Jose Murat, a senior PRI politician, and PRI president elect Nieto's top advisor, economist Luis Videgaray. The decision was made by president Nieto and economist Luis Videgaray to pursue the discussions for joint agreement on vital issues facing Mexico. The PAN party was brought into the discussions. By mid-September nine people from the PRD, PRI and PAN started work on a draft agreement at Murat's home. The ground rules were set for discussions to be private, to have agreement on all points or assume nothing had been agreed, and not let current events disturb the talks. The nine participants set up the broad principles, and then a group of three, one from each party was given the task of coming up with the right language for the pact. By the end of November a 34 page draft was put together. A night of intense work to 2 a.m. followed the inauguaration of president Nieto on Dec. 1, with the Pact ready for announcement on Dec. 2, 2012. The Pact is a landmark achievement in its potential for changing Mexico and creating decades of economic progress similiar to that envisioned by the Spanish parties for Spain in 1977. ...

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Jack Hough points to other important factors that affect the Dow Jones Industrial Averages and the S&P 500 Index. The quality of earnings, the relationship between wages and corporate earnings, and macroeconomic factors, all affect the level of the indexes. The historical average of wages relative to earnings would leave shares at 24 times earnings says Hough. This would mean a further decline of 40%. As U.S. companies earn more of these profits overseas compared to the past, they could sustain a higher level of earnings relative to wages says Hough, but this may not be the level at which they are today. In Hough's view the earnings numbers are made to look better than they actually are, which should be taken into account. He does not mention macroeconomic factors which add to the volatility, and policy decisions which create higher levels of uncertainty affecting decisions on consumption and investment in the economy.

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The employment-to-population ratio for people aged 20-24 fell to 60.1% from 67.1% in the last 3 years. Prof. Katz says young people who have not entered the labor force and a large number of people who have applied for disability benefits are problem areas. The unemployment rate of 9.4% does not reflect the people who have given up looking for a job, or those who retired, and those who applied for long-term disability benefits.

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The gridlock in Congress and the housing crisis could postpone an overhaul of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for another two years. The housing crisis of 2008 has created a situation in which 9 out of 10 housing loans are guaranteed by Fannie and Freddie. The two agencies were created to buy mortgages from the banks, freeing the banks to make more loans. Fannie and Freddie gurantee the loans and then sell them to investors as securities, a process that lowers borrowing costs and makes 30 year mortgages more easily available to homeowners. The Obama administration and the Democrats want to continue some form of government guarantee, and continue government support for the 30 year fixed mortgage. The Republicans oppose any government guarantee because of the losses imposed on taxpayers by the way these agencies operated in the past, with the government guarantees providing the wrong kind of incentives in a housing market prone to bubbles. The fragility of housing markets means anything that raises borrowing costs could put downward pressure on housing prices. As a result the restructuring of the two housing agencies is in limbo. Republicans who want aggressive changes may wait for housing markets to stabilize, making the overhaul a multiyear process. Meanwhile the US Treasury has promised to inject unlimited sums into the mortgage giants through 2012 and nearly $300 billion after that, so that Fannie and Freddie have positive net worth and not go into receivership. The total cost to taxpayers beyond the $134 billion already incurred, is additional capital injection of $146 billion (for a total of $280 billion), because of further problems in the housing market in future years, and another $400 billion to adequately capitalize the entities that replace Fannie and Freddie, according to Standard and Poor's estimates....

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Lou Jiwei chairman of China Investment Corporation met with Treasury officials in Washington to give reassurances that China's sovereign wealth fund would invest as a portfolio investor and be a good citizen when it comes to investing in the USA. He reiterated the pledge by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao that the Chinese government would not interfere in the operations of the fund, and that the fund would have its own corporate governance structure. He also met with officials of the IMF who are drawing up a code of "best practices" for sovereign wealth funds. Following the Chinese experience with the Unocal deal and the experience of Dubai in a deal to buy a company that manages USA ports, both deals falling apart on concerns in the media and Congress, the Chinese and the Persian Gulf sovereign funds have become more savy and aware of these concerns and tried to handle them better. They also point out that in the case of the financial institutions caught in the US mortgage securities crisis, it is these companies like Morgan Stanley and Citigroup that have come to them, to China, to Persian Gulf countries and to Singapore and other countries, asking them to invest for small stakes in the companies. Their line goes like this- if you have second thoughts about our investment we will invest elsewhere in other countries. Another facet of this is that these portfolio investments are spread out between many different countries sovereign wealth funds, and the possible influence is small in management decisions. China Investment Corporation has $200 billion in assets. Lou says that only a third would be invested to buy foreign assets, about $70 billion. The other two thirds would be used to support China's three large commercial bank balance sheets. ...

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The final settlement of the conflict in Georgia takes the lines of Russia pulling out of Georgia proper, and Russia in return making independent states with Russian assistance out of Abhkazia and South Ossetia. The border between these states and Georgia would be patrolled by 200 EU military personnel. And Georgia would sign an agreement not to use force against Abhkazia. And the EU takes over responsibility with Russia for seeing all this fall into place, the US leaving all this upto the EU. Interestingly Putin is not heard much from in the media and Medvedev and Sarkozy work out the details basically setting the Russian inhabited regions of South Ossetia and Abhkazia on their own course as independent states with Russian assistance. Considering the tensions and conflict and bitterness between the people in these small states after Georgian nationalism took root after the Soviet collapse the lives of people there would be more peaceful and secure except that a price is paid in terms of South Ossetian Georgian villages where the people were uprooted. But tensions there had reached a churning point and leaders there inflamed passions so that at some point something like this would happen. This puts this chapter behind and Russia can be glad that it got out of all this without sanctions from western countries and the EU can go out of this with the assurance that Russia would not interfere in Georgia proper. Over time Georgians themselves may have to ask whether their leaders acted responsibly by inflaming Georgian nationalism upto a point of damaging relations with ethnic minorities. Angela Merkel who has experienced life under Soviet dominated governments still thinks according to media reports that the Georgian leader Sashkavili can inflame tensions with his statements and style of operating. ...

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John Steele Gordon has done a good job of covering the history of banking in the United States since the days of Alexander Hamilton. One of his books is "Hamilton's Blessing", describing the first effort to set up a central bank in the US, the Bank f the United States, modeled on the Bank of England. Here he describes the resistance by Jeffersonians and their successors like Andrew Jackson who did not understand the purpose served by a good central bank and did everything to either dissolve it or to not give it the powers and the authority and the staffing that it needed. It was not till after the crisis of 1907 in which JP Morgan acted as the central bank in loaning his own money to prevent a bank and financial panic and collapse, that the first central bank the Federal Reserve was set up in 1913. Even then it was not given the authority and powers and staffing needed to command the economy in panic or financial collapse which happened in 1931. Part of the reason the crises were less frequent after 1931 is because of a better understanding of economics and also because of the Federal Reserve's ability to step in during a crisis. What went wrong in the 1990's with the S&L crisis and in 2008? Gordon points to a system of undue political influence as one big problem. And the lack of a unified, coherent regulatory system free of undue polticial influence. Both in the 1990's and in 2008 Congress and the regulatory authorites failed to keep undue political influence from distorting and damaging the financial system. In the 2008 crisis ideology simply componded the problem as deregulation and dependence on free markets without any checks simply compounded the problem into its huge dimensions. ...

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Donald Trump's remarks at a Wilmington rally that caused a storm- "Hillary wants to abolish, essentially abolish the Second Amendment. By the way, and if she gets to pick her judges, nothing you can do folks. But the Second Amendment people, maybe there is, I don't know." The second Amendment in the U.S. Constitution gives people the right to bear arms. Some newspapers saw it as threat, especially considering the heated rhetoric in Trump's other remarks in his campaigning. Speaker Paul Ryan called it a joke gone bad, and that the Second Amendment should not be talked about in this way.

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How will countries like India generate jobs when technology enables manufacturing and other activity to do work with fewer and fewer people. Even Hon Hai in China is shifting work to robots. Technological progress is leaving more people unemployed and widening income gaps with the benefits going to a few people, says the Economist in this research based essay. It will require carefully managed governance to invest in infrastructure, raise skills of less skilled workers through education, and wage subsidies for those left behind to ensure our current system works in the future.