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Fed divided on US rate cuts August 2025.

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Barley says Greece's debt buyback plan in Dec. 2012 is attractive for private investors. Earlier some private investors had bought Greek debt at 10-15% of face value. Greece now has 10 billion euros, including 0.5 billion for accrued interest to buy back Greek bonds at 32.1- 34.1% of face value. This should help Greece retire 28 billion euros face value in Greek debt, reducing the debt burden by 18 billion euros The IMF had pushed hard in negotiations for reducing Greek debt as a percentage of GDP by 2020 to levels where it could again access private markets. This is critical to making the Greece bailout work. Nomura estimates this will reduce Greece's debt by about 10% of GDP by 2020. Every little bit helps in Greece's struggle to recover financial stability.

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A drug store chain that invented the malt shake and had a store at every street corner in America from the 1900's Walgreens is taken private by Sycamore investment firm for $10 billion. At one time it was valued at $100 billion in 2017 and its stock hit new lows by 2024 hit by depressed margins for pharmacy drugs it reported lower earnings in 2024. In Jan 2025 the Department of Justice sued Walgreens for contributing to the opioid crisis in its dispensing of pills leading to its stock price dropping to $10 and its market value to $8.9 billion. Earlier Sycamore had taken Staples office supplies store chain private in 2017 for $6.7 billion.

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Much of the cost of the Common Prosperity campaign of president Xi to increase access to healthcare, education and housing will fall on heavily indebted local governments in China, says WSJ. Today in 2022 these three education, healthcare and housing are moving beyond reach of ordinary Chinese because of rising costs and referred to as the "three big mountains." In education and housing the government has moved to improve access. Today parents like Ding Jianxiong in Beijing can give their children two extra hours of classes in school for not cost. It saves money and time compared to tutoring classes that the government is discouraging. Teachers have to work longer hours for this to happen and the cost is borne by local governments. Governments at provincial, municipal and county level finance 80%, 70%, and 60% of China's fiscal expenditures on education, healthcare and housing projects. Data from China's Finance Ministry shows local governments have built up $4 trillion in debt at end of 2020, up 20% from a year earlier, much of it to finance infrastructure projects in the last 20 years. This experts say is an underestimate with additional debt buried and camouflaged in financing vehicles, other forms of debt. In 2020 the central government restricted sales of land that were creating an overinflated housing market and driving cost of housing ever higher, depriving local governments of a principal source of revenues. Land sales are now down about 15% and falling. Experts say a new property tax could only bring in one fifth of what was derived through land sales by local governments. The result is a fundamental mismatch today between revenues and costs for local governments that has not been addressed. ...

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Biden issued executive order on June 3, 2024 to close the Border with Mexico and deny asylum. Once border crossings reach 2500 a day the border is closed. Then it is opened only when crossings drop to 1500 a day and after 14 days. Officially permitted including humanitarian parole pathways are limited to 1500 a day. This is being done because the legislation that passed in the US Senate on bipartisan basis negotiated for closing the Border with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Republicans and Senator Lankford (R) was blocked in the Senate by Mike Johnson on instructions of Mr. Trump who sought to use it as an election issue. "Today I’m moving past Republican obstruction and using the executive authorities available to me as president to do what I can on my own to address the border,” said president Biden. The signs “SECURING OUR BORDER” were prominent in the White House East Room. “Frankly, I would have preferred to address this issue through bipartisan legislation,” he added, “but Republicans left me with no choice.” On this page the WSJ looks at the Border on August 5, 2024 and finds the border crossings have dropped to levels in 2020 and to levels seen during the last year of president Trump. The US and Mexico have cut border crossings with Mexico moving migrants back to southern Mexico in a Chutes and Ladders program where migrants head north, and the Mexican gocernment buses them back south, at which point some return to their home countries. At the Guatemala border there is busing to take them to other locations in the south of Mexico. ...

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Biden issued executive order on June 3, 2024 to close the Border with Mexico and deny asylum. Once border crossings reach 2500 a day the border is closed. Then it is opened only when crossings drop to 1500 a day and after 14 days. Officially permitted including humanitarian parole pathways are limited to 1500 a day. This is being done because the legislation that passed in the US Senate on bipartisan basis negotiated for closing the Border with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Republicans and Senator Lankford (R) was blocked in the Senate by Mike Johnson on instructions of Mr. Trump who sought to use it as an election issue. "Today I’m moving past Republican obstruction and using the executive authorities available to me as president to do what I can on my own to address the border,” said president Biden. The signs “SECURING OUR BORDER” were prominent in the White House East Room. “Frankly, I would have preferred to address this issue through bipartisan legislation,” he added, “but Republicans left me with no choice.” On this page the WSJ looks at the Border on August 5, 2024 and finds the border crossings have dropped to levels in 2020 and to levels seen during the last year of president Trump. The US and Mexico have cut border crossings with Mexico moving migrants back to southern Mexico in a Chutes and Ladders program where migrants head north, and the Mexican gocernment buses them back south, at which point some return to their home countries. At the Guatemala border there is busing to take them to other locations in the south of Mexico. ...

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Biden gave a passionate and vigorous speech at the Democratic Convention in Chicago, Aug 19, 2024 comparable to what he did in the State of the Union message to the US Congress and people in January 2023 and January 2024. Gone was any semblance of the bad day at the debate that came after covid symptoms. The first night at the Democrat Convention brought before Biden's speech speakers Hillary Clinton, Governor Beshear of Kentucky, touching personal accounts of trauma of women who were denied abortion in rape and incest and mother's health conditions, Steve Kerr, US Coach men's basketball team at the US Olympics, and three members of Congress. Steve Kerr said it was the duty of Americans to protect American democracy and the respect for the dignity of people, workers and families, that is part of the values of the American people for two hundred years, values Biden exemplified and Kamala is shaped by. Ashley Clinton reminded people of her father's love for the country and family- telling the country how her father took the train from Washington D.C. to Wilmington Delaware just to see Ashley, Jill and the family for her birthday when she was just seven years, stayed for a few minutes at the station and after blowing the candles headed right back to D.C. Dignity, decency, values, personal sacrifice, courage, these are the values that Coach Steve Kerr said America expected from its leaders. Thes are the values of Joe Biden of Delaware as he went through 50 years int he US Senate, 8 years as Vice President and his term as president. And above all Biden used this experience to pass legislation  for the Renewal of America that makes him many speakers say the most consequential president since FDR. ...

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For groceries cost limiting Trump proposes nothing. It was found in the EU that there was excessive price action by grocery stores in 2022 and 2023. Though experts say no for price setting by government, the deterrent effect of a policy of the government to not set prices but to send a clear message about excessive profit as anti-social behavior, has beneficial impact for price reduction or future price increases to be put on hold. Harris will do this. For child care costs. Trump proposes nothing and does not put children as the next generation of Americans at the top of priorities. Harris puts children as the top priority and early years development as critical. Harris proposes a child tax credit of $6000 per family that would cost $110 billion per year estimate from Office for Responsible Budget, offset by Medicare savings achieved by negotiating with Pharma of $36 billion a year, tax on billionaires at 25% instead of 8.2% saving $40 billion a year, for net cost of $44 billion a year the Harris $6000 Child Tax Credit.  Congress including Democrats failed to extend the $3600 tax credit per child below 6 years that was introduced after 2019 yet allowed to expire in 2022 reverting to $2000 per child under 6 years. The concept is accepted as helping children, Vance the Republican VP nominee has suggested $5000, only opposed by country club Republicans oblivious to the importance of children having free school lunches and parents having the money for child care added costs for the future of the children of this Nation.     ...

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Japan's economy shows 0.3% real GDP growth over previous quarter in 2nd quarter 2025.

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Changpeng Zhao, Binance founder is pardoned in 2025 as crypto financing enters US politics.

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Current lung cancer screening guidelines and two third of cancer patients at Northwestern Medicine missed 2025.

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The risks of coming up with a higher share price for Chinese social networking site Renren based on Facebook's IPO. Price to sales ratio for Renren was high at 22 before a rally, its even higher at 33, and increasingly risky. Larger operating costs and a less developed online advertising market mean Renren will barely breakeven in 2012. Sina's Weibo microblog has 200 million registered users, larger than the 137 million users for Renren at the end of third quarter 2011.

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Protests planned in smaller towns in eastern Germany are the largest since the fall of the Berlin Wall, says this report in DW.com. Protests are against far right AfD and plans to deport immigrants from Germany. About 300,000 people turned out near the chancellery and the Bundestag parliament buildings in Berlin on Saturday Feb. 3, 2024. About 30,000 turned out in Dresden in East Germany. About 1800 organizations have called for protests in Berlin. Luisa Neubauer of the Fridays for Future Climate protests told the crowd according to DW.com- that hope does not fall from the sky, hope is damn hard work and that Germans must live democracy not just passively have democracy. This is showing Berliners and Germans in many cities and small towns in a different light, where the people themselves are taking charge. When political parties from the CDU and SPD, Greens and the Left have let the political landscape fragment with no party having more than 20% support. The future of Germany and the EU depends on these young people out on the streets. ...

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The UK decision makes purchases of Huawei equipment for UK 5G networks illegal from the end of 2020 and gives carriers till the end of 2027 to strip out existing Huawei gear from 5G networks. The move Mr. Dowden, British minister in charge of digital issues, says will cost $2.5 billion and delay the development of 5G by 2 to 3 years. He said the whole sector suffers from a "global market failure" and is "dangerously reliant on too few vendors." The UK and Australia, U.S. decision will accelerate the development of more vendors in international alliance to come up with alternatives. Other European governments face pressure from legislators in Germany, Italy, and France  to reconsider decisions on 5G. In the UK some members of parliament are critical of the long time given to phase out Huawei gear in 5G networks. 

 

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Simon Nixon points out that most of the 490 billion in euros borrowed by European banks under the Long Term Refinancing Operation of the ECB in Dec. 2011 is for rolling over maturing debt, rather than buying of government bonds. European banks financing needs based on figures from Barclay's Capital are over 300 billion euros for the 1st quarter of 2012. This suggests huge demand for the Long Term Financing Operation in the next quarter. For Spain and Italy the newly created lending facility should lead to higher bond buying by small and midsized Spanish banks and Italian banks, as this will boost their profitability. Spanish bonds yield 5% and Italian bonds yield 6.5% and loans from the ECB using the bonds as collateral are available at 1% for three years, which makes this an opportunity for these banks to boost profitability. The proportion of government bonds of Spain of Spanish banks bank assets is 7% and the figure for Italian banks is 9%. Nixon says an increase of this ratio by three percentage points by Spanish banks would created additional demand for Spanish government bonds of 45 billion euros, which is a third of the issuance for 2012....

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Tax cuts initiated by the Bush administration and to a smaller degree by the Obama administration account for $6.3 trillon of the $10 trillion deficit in 2011. This is about half the $12.7 trillion gap between the $2.3 trillion surplus predicted by the CBO a decade ago for the year 2011 and the current deficit of $10.4 trillon. Two wars and higher defense spending add another $2 trillion. The Stimulus added $700 billon. The Prescription Drug Benefit for seniors $272 billion. This is based on new analysis of CBO data by the Pew Fiscal Analysis Initiative. The record shows unrestrained spending by both parties has led to the current mess. Pete Domenici who chaired the Senate Budget Committee at the time of the first tax cuts in 2001 says "in the end the floodgates were opened." This also shows how quickly the situation can change if sound fiscal practices are abandoned. Two wars were financed entirely with borrowed money for the first time in U.S. history.

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High 2025 ACA premiums showing the failure of Obama patchwork on the failing US healthcare system.

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Traditional IPO's have raised $7 billion down a huge 94% from this time last year says this report in the WSJ. IPO of Rivian a new electric car manufacturer in 2021 was priced so high that it made the valuation of the new company at over $70 billion more than that of Ford Motor. Rivian had only made a little over 1000 cars in 2021 and about 7000 cars in the first half of 2021, which shows the size of the excess and the potential waste of capital that could be better allocated to vital needs for the economy such as achieving self reliance in semiconductor chips for the US which is not getting the funding it deserves and needs. These kinds of excesses are now a thing of the past. Larger companies, well known names such as Intel's Mobileye subsidiary or companies with a with a proven track record are now the companies that are more likely to have success with IPO's, as the economic environment, higher interest rates and other changes lead to the withering away of the novel idea startups of the past. Startups that had no meaningful effect on improving people's lives in any significant way, or strengthened the US economy and industrial base, and merely sucked up valuable resources.  It is not that the US lacks the resources to compete effectively with any country in the world including China, in renewables, in semiconductors, in 5G, in new technologies, it is just that hundreds of billions of dollars are going into unproductive channels and wasted. ...

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India's lunar probe released from the orbiter circling the moon is diverted from its expected path in the last 20 minutes before a landing on the lunar surface. As it reached 2.1 kilometers from the moon's surface communication with the ISRO satellite center in Bengaluru was lost. Landing on the moon is a difficult task because it lacks atmosphere, the distance preventing landing control in real time, and landers depending on thrusters to set down at the lowest speed in the right place away from craters and rocks. As a result a lander module is programmed to scan the surface and make the landing on its own. A similar Israeli mission recently failed for the same reasons. China landed a rover on the far side of the moon in January, and plans a Mars mission in 2020. The plans to build a space station orbiting the moon in 2023, and make a moon landing that year, land a person on Mars in 2033. President Trump has accelerated the space program after it was stalled under the administrations of Bush and Obama. ...

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It is important to remember that FDR and Harry Truman won in North Carolina by huge majorities, so did Adlai Stevenson, John Kennedy, LBJ. In fact going back to Woodrow Wilson in 1912 and 1916. Democrat Josh Stein, Attorney General elected in 2020 and Republican Mark Robinson, the Lt. Governor are very different candidates for governor in North Carolina. Rory Cooper, a Democrat, who won by 4 percentage points is not running after two terms as popular governor because of term limits.  Cooper's focus has been on education, ease of living, infrastructure and clean energy. North Carolina has one of the largest rural populations in the country with one in three being rural with new out of state residents settling in the suburbs. In recent years it has generally voted for a Democrat as governor and Republican for the legislature. Only in  elections since 1980 except in 2008 it has voted Republican for president. In 2024 it is expected to be a swing state. If elected Robinson would be the first black governor of North Carolina, Stein the first Jewish governor.   ...

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The US Fed under Jerome Powell is going to raise interest rates one more time in 2023 following rate increases in 2022- by a quarter percentage point this week. This is not only a fight against inflation but a way to reverse a situation that has affected the wealth and standard of living of ordinary Americans by reducing interest on savings to a paltry less than one percent. Only stock market investors benefitted under the previous regime widening income and wealth disparities in America. Just as today's story in the WSJ showing Bath and Body Works returning to basics such as producing soap in America, something that would not even have been given a second of thought in the 1900's, the Fed is doing its job under Jay Powell of going back to the basics. Where interest on savings provided retirees a comfortable stress free retirement and the inducement to save help build a savings pool in America to invest in what really improves the standard of living for all Americans across this country, from rural to urban, from all parts of the land. ...

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For National Governance Day the Library of Congress has recordings of the poetry and talks given by Atal Bihari Vajpayee in an audio page. These recordings were made by Vajpayee himself at his prime minister's residence in Delhi in 2001 and are in his own voice. As poet, philosopher, foreign minister, Leader of the Opposition and prime minister in India, Atal Bihari Vajpayee embodied the vision of the generation that started with Mohandas Gandhi in the 1920's through Govind Vallabh Pant and Lal Bahadur Shastri in the Hindi speaking heartland. A vision that is the basis of the sab ka vikas, sab ka viswas, sab ka prayas development drive of today based on good governance.  Ao phira se diya jalaem- come let us light the candle again, the sun dims, come let us light the candle again-  is one of the classics from Vajpayee as India looks to 2025 and ahead for National Governance Years. Jita jagata rashtrapurusha is a poem on national unity, more spirited than even the national anthem itself. ...

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The bubble in Canada's real estate market reached its peak in 2011-2012. The average price of a home in Vancouver reached a high of C$815,252 in April 2011, before declining to C$721,958 in Sept. 2012, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association, Average prices nationwide in Canada were at C$372,544. Prices are being pushed up by buyers from China. Canada is taking steps to restrain the bubble by changing immigration rules. The immigration minister temporarily froze the Federal Skilled Worker Program and the Immigrant Investor Program. Under the latter program citizenship was given in five years to qualified immigrants investing over C$800,000 in Canada. Other measures include cutting the mortgage amortization to 25 years from 30 years, and reducing the amount of home equity Canadians can borrow against from 85% to 80%. Home sales in Vancouver declined 33% in Sept 2012 over prior year and listings increased 14%. The moves are modest because real estate agents see it as a pause in the bidding wars that were taking place, and the market remains overinflated....