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Luis Enrique suffered a nose injury in the 1994 Euro soccer quarter finals against Italy, and a loss to Italy. Now the coach for the Spanish soccer team is back with the win in the quarter final against Switzerland, that game going to penalties. Spain is now in the final four with Italy, England and Denmark. He will meet Italy now as the coach of the national team. Spain has gone through long periods when the national team has not done well. Spanish soccer revived after 44 years with a win in penalties in Vienna that took it to the soccer semifinals in 2008.

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Denmark joins the European Union's common defense policy. Prime minister Mette Frederiksen had called a referendum on the issue. 67% of Danes voted to join EU defense policy in the referendum. Mette Frederiksen said- "With the decision we have made, we show that when Putin invades a free and independent country and threatens peace and stability, we will move closer together." Norway is part of the NATO alliance. Sweden and Finland have asked to join NATO. The entire Baltic region is going through a shift to common defense after the Russian invasion with popular support for strengthening security and defense. 

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Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor from Arizona was a pioneer of women's rights in the workplace, and had her own struggles before being the first woman appointed to the US Supreme Court. Born on a vast 200,000 acre cattle ranch in El Paso she was much of a cowgirl. She is considered to have blazed a trail for other women through her life and work. She was appointed by Reagan in 1981 and served till 2006. In 1952 when she graduated from law school at Stanford women had a hard time working in the legal profession.

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Iran and Houthi rebels in Yemen seeking to enlarge the Gaza response of Israel into a wider regional conflict. The US under Biden seeking to limit the contours of the conflict and convince Israel to end its invasion of Gaza. Shipping lanes in the Red Sea and the Suez Canal are affected as Maersk now sends its ships around the Horn of Africa. The US and UK warships tackle a recent barrage of attacks on shipping in the Red Sea last week and the US says it will respond to keep theshipping lanes open for Suez and the Red Sea. The WSJ shows these shipping lanes and the impact.

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Gina Raimondo, US Commerce Secretary, visits Beijing to help restore key aspects of the US China trade and business relationship. Her visit follows visits by Anthony Blinken and Janet Yellen that helped rebuild the relationship after the pandemic and the rhetoric and actions of the Trump administration had weakened ties. The balloon incident and the visit by Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan further strained relationship with China. This is changing as China increases engagement following the pandemic and president Xi is expected to visit the US for an Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation APEC meeting in November at which president Biden will meet Xi.

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People don't design their own electric motor, then why should they pick stocks when index funds are widely available. Charlie Munger of Berkshire Hathaway says one of the reasons he was economically successful is that he read so much, "read so damn much all my life." He says it is charlatanism to charge three percent to pick stocks and manage other people's money, when index funds can do the job better. He doesn't believe in bitcoin, a sovereign issues money for a reason and it has worked, artificial currency he calls "a stink ball."

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Mistakes to avoid in retirement, says Statman, are that after a lifetime of frugal habits to save for retirement, when one gets there he or she will spend so much less that they cannot enjoy life fully. He suggests taking a payout of 3%-4% from retirement accounts and dividends combined. Another mistake is to think one has more time to manage retirement accounts, and he warns that this is a bad idea as one cannot beat the market, and it is important not to take risks in retirement. Other mistakes are to ignore how important healthy living is at this point.

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The ECB stands ready to act with the unanimous support of its 25 member governing policy, says Mario Draghi, president of the ECB. Draghi said that "if oil feeds into other prices, that could generate exactly what we want to avoid, namely a spiralling downward phenomenon" for wages and prices. Mark Carney of the Bank of England, says he will see "how things evolve." The U.S. Federal Reserve might slow planned rate increases in 2016, if inflation remains well below the target of 2%, and conditions indicate adverse effect on the economy.

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Britain's parliament voted Jan. 15, 2019 to reject the Brexit deal crafted by Theresa May with the European Union by a huge margin of 230 votes. The vote was 432 to 202, with 118 Conservative MP's voting against along with the entire Labour Party members. 

If a no-confidence vote by the opposition Labour Party is defeated as expected with 118 Conservative MP's backing the government in that vote, the uncertainty and rancour and bitterness will continue. May will look for ways to tweak the deal to get it through parliament. If this fails Britain could march out of the EU with no deal on March 29, 2019, or the date is extended. She opposes extending the date or having a second referendum.

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Tennis player from Serbia is disqualified for hitting the line umpire with a tennis ball. Djokovic was behind 6-5 to Carren Busta of Spain and lost his serve when this happened. Once before in that match he hit a ball at the stands in frustration. The Organizers of the U.S. Open decided there were clear reasons for him to be disqualified and lose all points he had earned at the U.S. Open. Djokovic had earlier come under criticism for his playing in events where there was no social distancing. Tennis has lost much of the graceful behaviour from the time when players like Althea Gibson, Ken Rosewall and Rod Laver played the game in an earlier era. Too much of the money is focused on prize money, television advertising, star status and number of grand slams won, bringing the game down to a level where the fans enjoying a good game is left behind and focus is all on individual players. The same is true for soccer where so much focus was placed on Barcelona and Messi and the 700 million transfer fee. The message from reality comes from the 7-2 win by Bayern Munich over Barcelona with a traditional approach to the game based on using new players costing far less money, a good dose of common sense and hard work. Coaches at Manchester City and Liverpool, and Real Madrid all attributed their success in the game to hard work and discipline of players, with every player playing for the team and for fans, and not for star status. ...

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This leading investment bank G. Sachs Jan Hatzius forecast for the US economy is for inflation to go down further from 2.8% in December 2025 to 2.4%. The forecast is at 2.5% growth for 2025 for US economy under a DJT administration including impact of tariffs on China imports of 20%, selective tariffs on EU imports, not an additional 10% tariff across the board.

Net Immigration is forecast at 750,000. This is lower than what it was in the last 4 years with it's surges in some years. The remigration deportation plan will have some impact on growth yet the growth forecast will not be affected to a large extent. Strong real disposable income growth of 3.3% and the wealth and income effect will support spending growth in 2025, says this forecast by G. Sachs investment bank's Jan Hatzius.

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Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, in meetings with bankers and business leaders says Britain should remain in the single market 2 years after exit from the European Union, according to the Sunday Times. Theresa May plans for Britain to exit the EU in 2019. The reason is that this would protect business as it adjusts to leaving the single market, a kind of transition or Brexit buffer period. This period "really informs what businesses need to do because you transition and restructure during that window," Carney told a House of Commons Treasury Committee. About the changes in the politics in the U.S. and Europe Carney has said about basic fairness in bankers language- "market fundamentalism can devour the social capital needed for capitalism" to work, referring to the moral failures in operations of the banks by 2009 and how it hit the middle and working class incomes and wealth.

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The leaders of Republicans and Democrats, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Speaker Boehner, Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, and Minority leader Harry Reid, reached a budget compromise with the White House in October 2015 after long closed door negotiations, following years of deadlock in previous years. The compromise lifts sequester spending caps agreed to previously in a previous settlement of differences, and lifts the budget ceiling till March 2017. Speaker Boehner said it was time to "clean out the barn," as he did this over the opposition of Senators Rand Paul and Ted Cruz from the right wing of his party who opposed his efforts to compromise with Democrats. On October 28, 2015, the House of Representatives passed the two year budget agreement 266-167, and the following day Speaker Boehner passed on the Speaker's position to Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin. On Oct. 29, 2015, the Senate voted 64-35 to pass the budget compromise agreement. The agreement increases discretionary spending by $80 billion over 2 years, giving half to defense spending with the increase in military threats overseas, and the other half to domestic spending programs. The domestic spending goes to limit premium increases for some Medicare Part B beneficiaries, and a prevents a 20% across the board cut to Social Security Disability Insurance benefits, set for 2016. This removes the uncertainty posed by threats of a showdown on the budget ceiling and threat of defunding Planned Parenthood posed by right wing Republicans in Congress, which were bad for the economy at a time when the U.S. and Europe faces increasing threats overseas. Without a budget agreement the U.S. Treasury Department would have seen its borrrowing authority expire on Nov. 3, 2015....

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Did you know 7% of all carbon emissions today come from cement production. In the cement production process 90% of the carbon emissions come from using fossil fuels to heat up the limestone and clay to 2700 degrees to produce clinker. Cemex is workoing with Swiss company Synhelion to use solar energy to do this by 20230.  Heidelberg Materials is working to  add carbon capture to the process at its Brevik, Norway plant, then store it in the seabed near Bergen in liquefied CO2 form. This will absorb the carbon emissions to meet a goal of 8% of carbon emissions to be stored globally by 2030. 

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This Canadian opinion in the WSJ by Philip Cross of Statistics Canada, says Canada's opportunity to diversify its exports to places other than the US, especially for auto exports is essentially nil, and for oil exports because of a lack of pipelines will lead to losses of tens of billions of dollars.  He then goes on to say that Canada should wait for American buyers to suffer as car prices increase by $12,000. No such increase is likely. As pointed out by the UAW's Fain Shawn and others capacity utilization at US auto plants is low with only 60 to 65% capacity utlilization. Ford with 60% capacity utilization, has 568,000 cars in inventory 8% higher than 2024, and make 80% of its cars entirely in the US. Ford is actually cutting prices of its cars as of April 2025 under it's "From America For America Program." Ford and GM could replace German and other cars as Americans shift to buying American. Hyundai and Kia are already shifting production to the US. South Korean and Japanese leaders will support the US as it is the right thing to do. This Canadian opinion does not acknowledge that the US is simply creating a level playing field, a point USTR Jamieson and DJT repeatedly make, and the Japanese, South Koreans, and even the Chinese understand. These countries were given the benefit they received for three decades through the absolute generous attitude of the American people.   ...

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Reducing risk buffers to 5.5%-6.5% for India's central bank as recommended by former governor Bimal Jain helps to transfer $21 billion to the government as it copes with a bad loan crisis at banks and drop in credit and lending. This has hurt the economy reducing growth in early 2019. The RBI transfer will help stimulus and recapitalizing of banks as the Modi government copes with the economic deceleration to 5% growth in the last quarter.

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Britain's Labour party will now back a motion in parliament supported by the SNP, Liberal Democrats and Tories for a general election December 9 or December 12. This is the first December election since 1923, almost one hundred years. December elections in winter could have uncertain turnout, but the high turnout in the election in 1950 with Labour's Clement Attlee shows that when major issues are involved voters do turnout.

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US president Trump appointed Powell in 2016 in his first year in office. DJT's advisers have told him that it is important that the Fed have autonomy, and that the Fed was structured from inception for having the independent judgement for what is best for the economy. At times DJT has wanted the Fed in his first term to at least consult with the president.

In this context remember that Powell as chair of the Fed will be till May 2026. And Powell will remain as Governor on the Fed Board till Jan 2028. Of the current 7 governors the only other terms of a Fed Governor that expires early is Adriana Kugler in 2026.

DJT tariff and tax policies could increase inflation and growth which will require the Fed to recalibrate its views on cutting rates. 

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Kristof reminds readers of the NYT that the more that the British acted to suppress the American insurgents, the more that fueled the insurgents fighting the British. After all the land they were on was theirs they felt and not Britain's. The same is true for the $0 million Pastuns on both sides of the border, the Afghan side and the Pakistan side. He says Americans are not sensitive enough to nationalism abroad. The war in Afghanistan is costing $60 billion ayear. Adding another 40,000 troops will cost $10 billion, enough to send 2 million disadvantaged children to a solid preschool, or could be as high as $40 billion extra, which over 10 years would pay for almost half of health care reform. Kristof doesn't see the 40,000 troops doing enough to change the picture much, except increasing support for Taliban as the American footprint grows as foreign occupiers. He mentions that standard counterinsurgency ratios of troops to civilians would require 650,000 troops including Afghans.

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Oxford Biomedica is the company that is part of the consortium making the coronavirus vaccine being developed by Oxford University's Jenner Institute.  Her Mr. Dawson describes the challenges he faced and cash crunches 4 times in 12 years, the last 4 years ago. The turning point he says was in 2012 when the cell and gene therapy was validated with a new drug developed for a form of cancer using this method. Oxford Biomedica is setting up a facility for manufacturing the vaccine in England at a 84,000 square foot former Royal Mail sorting facility in the city's business park called Oxpark. Dawson says cell and gene therapy is going to be big in health care. He did not see it coming till 2012. In 2014 he says during a cash crunch they had realized that what they had to do at Biomedica was to get to the time when it was going to be big. Today Astra Zeneca of the UK is organizing the effort and includes the use of British and Indian facilities for manufacturing, and Oxford University for research effort. ...

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The Air France strike ends after 2 weeks, with the government deciding not to step in with a mediator. Air France says it will continue its strategic plan to expand budget airline Transavia, though Air France pilots would not be required to fly for Transavia. About 250 Transavia pilots will be hired as part of overall hiring of 2000 new employees, and the pilots will fly longer hours at less pay than the current pay and hours of Air France pilots. About 35 single-aisle Boeing 737 jets will be added for Transavia. No Transavia base of operations will be setup outside Netherlands and France, such as ones planned for Portugal to reduce costs. About 40% of the European air travel market is now with budget airlines. The strike cost Air France about $25 million a day for 2 weeks.

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Hear the complete speech of German Chancellor Scholz to an extraordinary session of the German Parliament on DW.com. This may be the most important speech in the last 30 years of German history since reunification. An extraordinary speech that sets the tone for the new Europe that Germany leads with its partners in the European Union. Fundamentally Scholz tells the German people that Germany is fighting alongside Europe for its freedom and democracy, so that the last 30 years of peace are seen not as an exception in history. Germany will not let Putin take us back to the imperial wars of the 19th century, Putin told parliament. Scholz tells the German people sending arms to Ukraine "was the only response possible to Russian aggression." He also tells them that it was not the Russian people, it was Putin who had launched this aggression. "This is Putin's War. Putin is destroying the European security structure." "A peaceful free Europe, we will defend it." This is the way Scholz finished his speech. Scholz outlined 5 actions Germany was taking including actions on investing $100 billion in Bundeswehr armed forces, in strengthening NATO capabilities, in building up Germany's technological capabilities, in 2 huge natural gas terminals. The entire German parliament stood up to applaud for a long time as Scholz described how Germany was with the Russian people who braved arrest to protest Putin's War, and there are many, many, Russians who do not support the war. Reconciliation with Russia remains a building block of German policy he said.   ...

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U.S. states face their biggest cash crisis since the Great Depression as a result of rapidly declining tax revenues with a state budget shortfall of $434 billion, says this report in the WSJ. This is larger than the 2019 K-12 education budget for every state combined, or more than twice the amount spent that year on state roads and transportation infrastructure. Rainy day funds will be exhausted by the loss in tax revenues after the pandemic closures of business. Nevada, Louisiana, New Jersey and Florida are the worst hit states. The result will be cutbacks in the future and more pressure on the retirement benefits for police, firefighters, teachers, government workers. Over 60% of the revenues of states come from sales and income taxes to meet the general operating funds. Drops in consumer spending and large job losses from the pandemic affect these revenues. Local government workforces were cut by 1 million people. In Michigan 31,000 state workers were furloughed 2 days per pay period for 10 weeks, and others were laid off. Rainy day funds set up after the 2008 crisis are exhausted. Only federal funds are keeping states afloat with a lot of uncertainty about 2021. The state budget director in Michigan calculated that even if the state got rid of 12 state departments including education environment and treasury, all reserves would be gone, and there would still be $1 billion budget shortfall. The rainy day funds set up after 2008 crisis accumulated $50 billion in U.S. states which have helped somewhat, with federal funds helping tackle shortfalls. Yet 2021 looms with huge shortfalls and expected cutbacks across the U.S. ...

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The issues were the same on Oct 31, 1936 when FDR gave this address at Madison Square Garden, similar to what president Biden faces today in the task "to win in this crusade to restore America to its own people."  FDR said: "On the eve of a national election, it is well for us to stop for a moment and analyze calmly and without prejudice the effect on our Nation of a victory by either of the major political parties.The problem of the electorate is far deeper, far more vital than the continuance in the Presidency of any individual. For the greater issue goes beyond units of humanity—it goes to humanity itself. In 1932 the issue was the restoration of American democracy; and the American people were in a mood to win. They did win. In 1936 the issue is the preservation of their victory. Again they are in a mood to win. Again they will win. More than four years ago in accepting the Democratic nomination in Chicago, I said: "Give me your help not to win votes alone, but to win in this crusade to restore America to its own people." The banners of that crusade still fly in the van of a Nation that is on the march. It is needless to repeat the details of the program which this Administration has been hammering out on the anvils of experience. No amount of misrepresentation or statistical contortion can conceal or blur or smear that record. Neither the attacks of unscrupulous enemies nor the exaggerations of over-zealous friends will serve to mislead the American people." ...

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How do you setup a vaccine business. Consider Mr. Adar Poonavalla in the city of Pune in India. His company Serum Institute of India, remains family owned. Founded in 1966 by Cyrus Poonavalla, it produces billions of doses of vaccines for measles, polio and other diseases. It is expected to be one of the key sources of vaccines because of its expertise and the stocks of vials and other supplies that it has in stock for the next 2 years of vaccine production. It is working on a separate facility for coronavirus production that could turn out 800 million doses of vaccine at a price of about $13 a dose over 2 years. Serum Institute is working with 3 companies that are doing the research on the vaccine for coronavirus in the U.S. and Europe, and will play a key role in the manufacturing of vaccines. To respond to the question how do you setup a company to produce vaccines for the people of the world. This is what Mr. Poonavalla says- he will only work with ethical long term funds and sovereign funds because he does not want to be in the situation where he has to charge high prices to give them returns. Unlike most countries in the world, India is unique in making certain that most of the basic pharmaceutical drugs are available to over a billion people at a low cost. Serum's goal is low cost quality vaccine production so that over a billion people in Asia can be "protected from the birth onwards." As the U.S. and Europe and large parts of Asia, Africa and Latin America, face the second vaccine phase of the coronavirus response following difficulties in PPE, Ventilators, and Masks in the first phase, they can have confidence because of companies such as Serum and the research centers in U.S. and Europe like the one at Oxford University. ...