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District court Judges are the first tier of the three tiered system of judiciary power. A series of US District Judge rulings stop the federal payments system, birthright citizenship, federal employees offered buyout plan, and other executive orders issued by DJT in first 72 hours in office. They were all designed to cut the federal bureuacracy in the US and gut agencies with overspending such as USAID $40 billion when rural America's needs are unmet, and tackle birthright citizenship which allows mothers to fly into the US and depart just to get citizenship for children. The White House plans to appeal these rulings to the next level the appellate courts in the US, all the way to the US Supreme Court. Some of the arguments against USAID $40 billion budget was that it funded bureaucrats pet projects, something that Senators such as Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky have fought against for 25 years. Coming after trillions of dollars in spending under the infrastructure Investment Act oversight over such spending is in the American tradition. No less than Harry Truman as Senator from Missouri made his mark by tracking down overspending and waste, during the Second World War. Another problem not discussed enough is that in today's world more can be done with good governance and leadership, avoiding unneeded wars, and investment from India, China, EU and US than can be done with $40 billion spread thinly over the whole world. Sri Lanka is just one example where its undoing is waging ethnic war, corruption, and India is leading its recovery in ways that USAID could never do. ...

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On world tuberculosis day the work of Dr. Zarir Udwadia is acclaimed for drawing attention to a resurgent tuberculosis in India through a medical journal article in 2012 for untreatable TB. India has 2.8 million new TB cases annually, 100,000 being drug resistant, according to WHO. India relies on outdated diagnostic tests that miss about 50% of the cases and Dr Udwadia says India needs newer technologies including GeneXpert tests. TB can be easily treated at a cost of $5 with 4 drugs over 6 months if done in time. Wrong drugs, incorrect doses, irregular medication, lets the TB bacteria become resistant causing havoc- leading to taking of 250 injections and 15000 pills treated for upto 2 years and costing thousands of dollars, with the toxicity of the drugs levels creating risks of deafness, blindness, kidney failure, and psychotic conditions. Crowded conditions in slum areas act as an incubator of the disease and infection rates, with 20 people being infected by one patient alone. ...

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Investment in fixed assets of urban areas in China declined from 8.3% to 5.5%, for the first seven months of 2018, according to the Bureau of Statistics. Investment provides a third of GDP growth. The trade dispute with the U.S. has added to concern about the slowing economy. Some analysts are calling for a non-confrontational approach in negotiations.

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The firing of John Bolton as National Security Adviser opens up the possibility of a meeting of Trump with President Rouhani of Iran. There is a need for both sides to begin talks on a nuclear deal that would replace the one Iran signed with president Obama to address issues raised by Mr. Trump and Republicans. Iran and countries that buy oil from Iran such as India, China and Japan have an interest in relief from sanctions imposed by the Trump administration on imports of Iranian oil. The European Union is keen to preserve aspects of the nuclear deal. Relief from sanctions is critical for Iran to develop its economy. The last two decades have seen Iran struggle to develop its economy with the sanctions imposed by  different U.S. administrations.   President Trump expressed flexibility on sanctions saying "we will see what happens. I think Iran has potential. They are incredible people." President Rouhani urged Mr. Trump "to put warmongers aside." Mr. Trump told reporters that he had resisted Mr. Bolton's opinions on issues and realized he had moderate views when compared to someone like Bolton.  Trump told Iran "We are not looking for regime change. We hope we can make a deal and if we can't make a deal thats fine too. But I think they have to make a deal." Helping the U.S. and Iran come to talks is president Macron of France who hopes to setup a meeting at the UN General Assembly which meets next week following his efforts at the G-7 meeting in France last month. In the past when tensions were high in the Straits of Hormuz President Trump refrained from aggravating this by saying actions that are "disproportionate" should not be taken and respected Iranian intentions. The tone of the conversation between the two sides has moderated to the point where both sides realize the need for coming to some compromise. This is in sharp contrast to the period a few months ago with rising tensions in the Straits of Hormuz and the seizure of an Iranian ship. Bolton's opinions were not the only issue for president Trump. He was also seen as the source of leaks including one that said Mike Pence, the Vice President, had opposed Mr. Trump's plan to bring the Taliban to Camp David. Also contributing to the new climate for talks is Mike Pompeo the Secretary of State, who has promoted the idea of talks with Iran. He told the media about such a meeting at the UN General Assembly in New York- "Sure. The president has made it very clear that he is prepared to meet with no pre-conditions." The willingness to try new ideas even contrary ones to policy pursued only a short while ago as long as the desired goal is reached is a feature of this presidency and key advisers. From the beginning of the Trump administration there is a firm sense of the need to end the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. and reduce foreign entanglements that have dragged on wasting resources and destroying priorities. With a willingness to try all sorts of approaches even ones that appear to be contradictory always keeping the end goal in sight. ...

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The G-20 summit in April had as its achievement the $1 trillion that would go to aid for emerging countries and other countries in need. But this number may not be what it appears to be and should be seen with care. Prof. Eswar Prasad, former division chief for China at the IMF, and now Professor at Cornell University, says there is double counting in the numbers, and a lot of the money has not yet been committed. With trade financing only a quarter of the $250 billion is fresh cash, the rest is trade financing that is rolled over every 6 months. For the Special Drawing Rights issuance of $250 billion, a kind of virutal currency that is set by a basket of real currencies like the dollar and the euro, the IMF will issue SDR's to all 185 of its members. This is not cash but a form of credit, against which a country can borrow. The Obama administration that came up with this idea thinks it will create $15 to $20 billion in additional credit for the poorest countries. For this to happen the US has to lend out its special drawing rights to poor countries, and this requires congressional approval. Of the $500 billion in direct commitments, Dr Prasad says less than half has been commited by Japan, the EU, Canada and Norway. China says it will put in $40 billion probably by buying bonds issued by the IMF. The US contribution of $100 billion has to be authorized by Congress. Even with the US contribution Prasad sees a shortfall of $145 billion of the $500 billion in donations. And the Saudis, the Indians will require a bigger say in the IMF to contribute some of this. ...

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Japan's efforts to improve defenses in the Pacific.

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Tariffs policy is part of a renegotiation the US is conducting with China similar to that started with Japan by Lighthizer in the Reagan era as Deputy Trade Representative. It does not in any way have anything to do with the tariffs of Herbert Hoover in 1930 that gave tariffs a bad meaning. This is because tariffs were reduced since Harry Truman's efforts in 1945 by 2017 to 1.47% on average on total imported goods into the US and world trade makes up 63% of world GDP, so large is world trade today. What are Lighthizer- DJT tariffs trying to accomplish? As with Japan in the 1960-1970's it is intended to reverse the trends for China in 2000-2017 that allowed it to game the world trading system to gain an unfair advantage by dumping specific products into the US destroying American manufacturing and communities dependent on it. The US tariffs on Chinese goods proposed in 2024 by former USTR Robert Lighthizer come at a time when US tariffs are in 2023 only about 2.2% of all imported goods, $33 billion on 2333 billion of imported goods. In 2023 the total import duties or tariffs as a percentage of US total imported goods is about 2%, with total imported goods into the US from European Union 3%. and with total imported goods into the US from China about 19% matching China's about 19% on American imports into China. By the time the first tariffs were taken up by the DJT administration in 2017 the total tariffs the US had imposed on imported goods were down to an all time low of 1.47% of imported goods value, $33 billion out of $2333 billion in total imported goods. Compared to the 29-40% under Hoover Act of 1930 raised to 60%.  Today world trade makes up 62% of world GDP, in 1930 it made up 9% of World GDP.  In 2023 the total import duties or tariffs as a percentage of US total imported goods is about 2%, with total imported goods into the US from European Union 3%. and with total imported goods into the US from China about 19% matching China's about 19% on American imports into China.   ...

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The growth of China's economy is likely to have a slight or no effect on growth in the US. Some estimates even show negative impact on the US if China's growth pushes up oil prices. Growth in China will come mainly from consumption spending and growth in services. This consumption spending may not not last beyond the first half of the year, according to one estimate. Even the more optimistic estimates such as Oxford Economics show the impact on global growth of growth in China of 5% to be not much more than 0.2%.

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An export rebound is not matching the growth in imports. Imports went up 31% since May 2009, while exports went up 27%. The result is that the trade deficit is growing, primarily because of imports from China and imports of costlier oil. The trade deficit is expected to reach $40 billion in December 2010, compared to $25 billion in May 2009.

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Niall Ferguson, a history professor at Harvard, and Moritz Shularick, a economic history professor at the Free University of Berlin, coined the term Chimerica, to describe the Chinese export machine and the American overconsumption right down to negative savings. Now they call it an economic monster that needs to be given a burial. It does little good for America. For America its a 10-10 deal the authors say, 10% growth for China and 10% unemployment int the USA. The mood in the USA is no longer to go on with this arrangement they warn, and ask that the Obama administration take steps to end this arrangement. The USA should ask China to make a 30 % depreciation of the renminbi say Ferguson and Schularick. Krugman makes a similiar point and warns of dire consequences in aworld out of balance on the same page of the NYT, see the link. Ferguson and Schularick point out that unlike China, both Germany and Japan let their currencies appreciate by 60% for Germany and 50% in Japan, at a similiar period in their country's development. China's renmibi is pegged at 6.83 renminbi to the dollar, and China's government used $300 billion in reserves to keep the renminbi from appreciating this year. Throughout the 1980's and 1990's it was pegged at around 8.28 renminbi to the dollar. For the USA this has been very costly, with a distortion in the global cost of capital significantly reducing long term interest rates, and helping create the real estate bubble in the US. They point out that with Japan and Germany dollar reserves increased roughly in line with growth of American GDP at about 1% and stable before moving slighltly higher in the 1970's. By contrast China's reserves have grown from about 1% of Ameica's GDP in 2000 or $165 billion to 5% in 2005 and 10% in 2008 and headed for 12% in 2009 end. This is simply unsustainable any longer; carrying on any longer risks China losing the very basis of its economic success which is the open global trading system....

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China's trade surplus increased to $18.4 billion in April from $5.4 billion in March. Exports were up 4.9%, slower than expected and down from 8.9% in March. But imports went up by only 0.3%, much lower than March's 5.3% increase. The hopes for improving the trade balance in recent months may be dashed because of slowing imports for infrastructure development, as economic growth slows in China, even as export growth declines from its earlier high levels.

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What Mullaly of Ford said at arecent ECO:nomics conference of the WSJ in Santa Barbara. Mullaly said that the US needed an integrated energy policy. We are selling a lot of small cars in Europe, where gasoline is between $7 and $9 dollars a gallon. The CEO of AutoNation puts it directly. He says I have fuel efficient vehicles on my parking lots as far as the eye can see. Whats needed he says is a tax that sets a gas price floor of $4 a gallon. "We need more expensive gasoline", Michael Jackson of AutoNation said, and he said he wanted to say it in a straightforward way. The WSJ editorial says let consumers decide. However this is what has happened before. Not having an integrated energy policy means just that, letting distorted consumption levels in the US and in China with complete disregard for fuel efficiency allowed prices of gasoline reach to $150 a barrel. And in the process hit the American carmakers the hardest as they are caught with the larger cars and SUV's which consumers once wanted, but now shifted away from in droves. So difficult as it is, especially in a downturn, its necessary to provide incentives or some form of price floor to keep oil prices at economical levels, as this make it possible to sustain cars as the most widespread mode of transportation not only here but for the roads not built and the consumers who have never driven cars in the millions in India and China, and the rest of the developing world. ...

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China's exports were able to show year over year growth of 7.6% in the first quarter of 2012, a sharp decline from 20.3% in 2011. As a result IMF estimates of China's long term current account surplus which were about 7% of GDP in the World Economic Outlook in Sept. 2011 may now be lowered to about 5%. This would reduce the strength of arguments that the yen is undervalued. The IMF is now engaged in making estimates for current account balances till 2017. China's current account surplus peaked at 10.1% of GDP in 2007 and the IMF forecasts in 2008 were for this to remain at 10% for the long term. The situation is rapidly changing because the most recent estimates from China's State Administration for Foreign Exchange show the actual current account surplus for 2011 at 2.8% of GDP. Since the 2010 Group of 20 nations summit meeting when China was pressured to reduce its trade surplus and let the yuan appreciate, the yuan has appreciated by 8.3%.

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Hon Kongers have tripled the amount of renminbi they hold to about US$11 billion because of the clear path of yuan appreciation signaled by the government. It has appreciated 7.1% so far this year with the Chinese government controlling the changes in the exchange rate. Forward markets price in another 4.4% gain in the next 12 months. The flood of outside money is why the Chinese reserves have grown by $1.6 billion a day in 2008. At the end of June it stood at $1.81 trillion up 18% from the beginning of the year even though the trade surplus is down 12% from a year earlier and Shanghai's index of domestically owned stocks is down 49% this year. In the first half of 2008 analysts estimate about $50-$200 billion were brought into China even with the tight currency controls. All this new money creates inflationary pressures in China and the central bank knows that it poses risks for the financial system but China is also intesrested in maintaining growth so it may not want to kill this inflow altogether and some of it may go to finance investment in the country....

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Joe Biden was about 78 when he entered the presidency. Reagan ended his presidency at age 79 in 1989. It is about 35 years since Reagan, and advances of medicine are making it possible for people to work longer with retirement ages extended to age 65 in many countries. Mr. Biden looks healthy and brings much experience from his decades in the Senate of the US. His 36 years in the Senate are the longest for any president. Turning 80 should not be a hurdle in that sense if one is healthy and the country needs this experience. During a foreign affairs crisis with China and Russia this experience of 12 years as ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee is invaluable. More so as Biden reflects America's values. During his 36 years in the Senate he put forward the Violence Against Women's legislation in Congress. As Vice President he continued to advocate for working class and middle class and for families. One has to go back to Harry Truman to sense this kind of fervent and resolute action for workers and families, and for the American people. As president he passed the $1 trillion legislation for Workers and Families and to fight Climate Change. Building America Back Better is one of its goals and further investment in America and its people is being pushed forward.  Mr. Biden is living at a time when there is a struggle for the soul of the nation and he believes in his role in this struggle which gives him the energy he needs for his role in 2024 for continuing the work he has begun. ...

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It should be remembered as NHK points out that Mr. Obama never visited the Main Building of the Hiroshima Museum and only spent a little time in the East Building. It is the Main Building that Prime Minister Kishida- who represents Hiroshima City in parliament - wants Biden, Scholz and other G7 leaders to see. It is only in the Main Building that leaders can see the graphic images of the devastation of the atomic bomb dropped by the plane Enola Gay on Hiroshima.  A suggestion is for NHK to give a private broadcast to G7 leaders of the documentary already shown in Asia on NHK television last week.  Having seen it one can say that it in no way affects the use of nuclear deterrance. A suggestion for the Hiroshima Museum authority is for it to also show the devastation of Japanese bombing in Asia from World War II that  may have created the insular feeling in American public about the dropping of the bomb and only thinking it could have come sooner to save lives for the Allies, itself creating conflicting feelings and affecting mental health. A recent exhibition in Barcelona showed the Nazi bombing of Republican parts of Spain leading to millions of refugees crossing over to Europe. Similar situation happened in China and the images may have created America's insular feeling about the bomb dropped on Hiroshima. It is in everyone's interest to know, to comprehend the devastation in all places, the conflicting narratives that were told, and for people as spiritual values teach us to develop the virtuous conduct, the concentration and the wisdom that both the Bible and the Buddhist suttas teach Americans, Europeans and Asians. Something that was lost in the 18th, 19th and 20th centuries.    ...

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Negative interest hurt the vulnerable the most- consider how much in interest would have to be deposited in retirement accounts savings of retirees to make up for lost interest over two decades. It could be in the hundreds of billions of dollars. It has added to the poverty in the Nation as interest income went gradually to negligible amounts. It also disincentivised savings,  and reduced the cost of capital so that hundreds of billions of dollars of retirees and other people's income was shifted into startups and dubious investments that did little to add to essential public services, education, healthcare, that would improve the quality of life for workers, families and children.It was in effect a misuse of economic policy to serve one section of the population at the expense of the large majority of the people in the Nation, and a shift of hundreds of billions of dollars over two decades from the vulnerable who needed it most to other uses. And aggravating the situation resulting from the failures in investing in manufacturing in the US that put whole communities at risk, neglecting the investment in infrastructure that helps ordinary people the vast majority in the nation the most. Only now are these investments being taken up by the Biden administration reallocating funds to infrastructure, manufacturing and clean energy, to retirees, and to communities across America. During this time of two lost decades for America, and into the future, the great nations of Asia, China and India, have advanced and are advancing with focused attention on the needs of all the people in their nations, and most importantly of all in advanced infrastructure and advanced manufacturing.  ...