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Paulson says in his new book that debt as a percentage of GDP is up in China from 130% in 2008 to 204% in 2014. He sees the borrowing surge in China as certain to cause trouble, and describes a scenario where the real estate market runs into trouble. He is particularly concerned about the trust companies in China. The Economist has decribed this in similiar terms in its recent issues. And experts including Krugman have warned about this for some time.

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The US needs 100,000 jobs a month just to keep up with population growth. And 7.2 million jobs have been lost since December 2007. Where will the new jobs come from to replace lost jobs in retail, banking auto and other job losing sectors and when, and will some jobs never come back. Global Insight forecast show 8.1% unemployment in 2013, suggesting that jobs needed for population growth and some jobs from the pool of job losses will not be recovered for some years.

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Israeli attack on South Pars Field and Iranian response with attack on Qatar North Field- this happens on March 18, 2026. About 10% of total global oil supplies are affected about 7 million barrels a day. Attacks on oil facilities and fields are a different order of magnitude compared to closure of Straits of Hormuz, as oil tankers can still deliver the oil when it is safe to cross the sea passage. Attacks on oil fields and facilities will take a long time to repair. The US president calls on Israel to stop such attacks. The Pars gas field supplies homes in Iran and is used for fertilizer production in Iran. It also supplies Turkey which would have to get alternative supplies from Russia or on the world market.Oil briefly hits $116 a barrel before settling at $96. The situation resembles the one in Ukraine when Ukraine grain production could not be sent from the Black Sea ports to Europe and Middle Eastern countries like Turkey, Egypt and Morocco, and fertilizer exports could not be sent to Asia. The Russian attacks on Ukraine ports led to global shortages of fertilizer and grain. ...

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Rolls Royce new CEO Mr. Erginbilgic wants an end to pursuing market share. He is renegotiating $2 billion in contracts that could be unprofitable. It had quality issues with its Trent 1000 engine that powered the Boeing Dreamliner ending in paying billions for fixing the product and compensating aircraft makers. Corruption charges were other problems. The pandemic led to companies parking planes and hurt Rolls Royce as enginemaker.  Rolls Royce made the first jet engines the de Haviland Comet, the world's first jetliner plane. Throughout its history it has faced upheavals at regular intervals-cost overruns leading to bankruptcy and government bailout in 1971, and relisting as a private company under Margaret Thatcher that led to a market share competition with GE in the US and more losses. Erginbilgic is the new CEO and says battling for market share days are over. He wants to cut its debt and achieve investment grade ratings to reduce financial costs. Erginbilgic says he really believes the problems of Rolls Royce come from the approach of increasing market share at any cost. Its defense division offers a ray of hope and a new orientation is taking place. ...

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Gerald Seib points to the damage done by the Sanders campaign on Hillary Clinton's prospects in a general election by increasing her negative perceptions in polls. He says both the front runners Trump and Clinton have gained by winning in their home state New York primary, but there is an arduous road ahead for Trump in gaining enough delegates, and for Clinton in regaining the trust of young Sanders supporters.