LyrArc Article Gist
The trial of former Security Chief Zhou Yongkang is held in Tianjin, China, in secrecy. He is senteched to life in prison in June 2015. This is part of president Xi Jinping's fight against corruption in China.

LyrArc Article Gist
One of the key findings of a joint panel of the WHO and South Korea on the MERS outbreak is the lack of transparency in the South Korean government's handling of MERS. Lee Jong-Koo, leader of the South Korean side in the panel said at a news conference: "One of the things South Korea failed to do was a transparent and rapid distribution of information, which is the most important thing to do." What caused serious concern for health officials is the speed of the outbreak- between May 20 when the first patient was identified and June 10 at least 145 people were infected. The chief WHO official on the panel, Keiji Fukuda, says South Korea needs to enforce a robust quarantine and monitoring system, and invest more in public health with more epidemiologists and laboratories' capacity.

LyrArc Article Gist
All the danger signs are flashing red says Prof. Simon Johnson of MIT's Sloan School of Management, as Citigroup stock loses 26% on November 20, 2008 and 50% of the stock's value in just 4 days. The fear is that Citigroup faces still bigger losses as home mortgages, credit card loans, commercial real estate debt all deteriorate further in a deep economic downturn, and that Citigroup will need large sums of additional capital from the government. There is similiar to the Detroit auto industry executives and public opinion a big gap in how Wall Street investors and Citigroup executives see the company's situation.

LyrArc Article Gist
Efforts to bring the textbook industry under state control by selling the firm "Enlightenment," which had a 30% share of the market, to Putin ally Rotenberg. "Enlightenment" has now received further support as other competitor's textbooks were not given approval by the Ministry of Education and Science. Apparently Putin sees western ideas introduced in some textbooks as harmful to the development of Russia's youth. All schools will now be given state inspections, and where textbooks are not on the approved list the schools will see cutoff of state funds. Putin was chairman of the publisher "Enlightenment" when it was under state control, Rotenberg is the new chairman. During Soviet times "Enlightenment" as a state publisher controlled all textbook publication. The industry was opened up after 1990, resulting in a large number of new publishers. Now many small publishers are being pushed out as the industry is being consolidated under the state's private sector allies with an educational agenda being set by Mr. Putin....

LyrArc Article Gist
IMF forecasts for Greece's growth rate are proving too optimistic. The IMF forecast is for zero growth in 2013, and increases of 2.3% and 2.9% in 2014 and 2015. Even in its pessimistic projections the IMF forecasts a 1% downturn in 2013 and growth of 1.3% and 1.9% in 2014 and 2015. The government sector was a large part of the economy. Now that this is shrinking, the export sector which only represents 20% of GDP is too small to generate needed growth. Greece also lacks the competitiveness and the large foreign enterprises that operate in Ireland, making growth less likely. A major problem is also the 40 billion euros Greeks have withdrawn from their banks in recent years. Even the figure of 120% of GDP that is expected in 2020 under the March 2012, 130 billion euro bailout is a very hypothetical figure, having no sound basis. Landon Thomas cites a confidential study the IMF had circulated in February 2012, showing the long term prospect for Greek debt if growth does not materialize because of lack of competitiveness. It would increase the debt to GDP ratio to 178% by 2015, and leave it at the current level of 160% of GDP in 2020. Some experts say the whole debt sustainability analysis makes no sense, with the question being insolvency in the case of Greece, not illiquidity. And requiring a focus to bring debt to manageable level to create prospects for growth. The Wall Street Journal emphasizes this in its editorial on Feb. 29, 2012....

LyrArc Article Gist
De Aenile describes the volatility in stock markets after the Brexit vote. Earnings growth is slow and expectations are declining. Indexes of emerging markets are trading at 10 times earnings, say experts. The S&P 500 ended the quarter at 19 times earnings, compared to historical average of 15, according to this report. Uncertainty remains high in Europe and the U.S., and monetary policy is stuck in a low interest rate environment.

LyrArc Article Gist
Germany has shown that low tech contact tracing efforts work- no apps needed, a phone, a desktop computer with a centralized database, and most important the human relations skills of the person doing the calls. The  sensitivity to the situation facing each person being called, being able to talk to the person in the language they speak in a multilingual environment such as California, is shown here. A 40 person team operates in San Francisco consisting of public health officials, clinicians, medical students and librarians. They call the contacts of people with coronavirus, arrange tests, and as needed send packages of food and medicines to hotel rooms or homes. Every call is expected to last 15 minutes but all sorts of questions are handled.  English and Spanish are used. Here one of the persons doing the contact tracing says she does not use apps, just an open source software used in the fight against Ebola. Definitely low tech, no waiting, get going is the message to every city in the world. She says apps software such as what Google and Apple are putting out can tell you whether the person went to some place, but cannot tell you more about that person, cannot tell you about problems the person is having being tested, and how they are having difficulty providing for families. One of the big lessons from Germany and efforts such as this one in San Francisco, and in other places such as Paris, Singapore, Taiwan, is that there is a complex nature to contact tracing that cannot be solved by tech. In fact the best thing to do is to get started immediately, with a phone and a database on a computer, as long as you have a person who has the motivation and skills, empathy with people, a lot can be done. Waiting for apps is a dangerous waste of time is shown by the low tech German experience, and the experience in other places. Most important is starting immediately. The example shown here of working with migrant workers in contact tracing shows in the most vulnerable places it is these human relations skills that count, that no tech app can do. It requires detective skills to find out and get people to share their history of movements and contacts for 14 days . In Singapore crowded dormitories house 300,000 of 1.4 million migrant workers. Singapore using an app also but its use is secondary. Apps don't work in many situations but fail in the most critical situations such as these dormitories and other eccentric or atypical situations such as faced by South Korea with religious groups and gay communities, elderly people in Europe, that generate the worst dangers of spread and need to be cluster isolated quickly. Human contact tracing has a history of being an effective method and was used in China and South Korea during the 2003 SARS epidemic. More countries need to adopt the method used in Asia and in Germany, particularly Britain, the U.S., France and India. It is OK that Britain's NHS and India's national government with Aarogya Setu app have put out their own apps which balance privacy concerns with the need to act immediately and cover the entire country, but the hard slog of human contact tracing teams in each district is indispensable. This is why the former Health minister in Britain calls it Britain's national mission to do this. Speed is key- putting together teams across the country in every district from skilled volunteers or government workers, and pulling together the phone and a centralized database on a computer as basic equipment. The fact that this is easily doable and people with human skills needed can always be recruited as they have been in Germany- from public officials in local government who are less busy in lockdowns, medical students, clinicians, volunteers, people from different professions- makes it inexcusable not to learn from others experience and get going. Just Do It. You want to reopen business, professions, offices and public services- Just Do It, it makes this possible. You want to prevent spread of the virus- Just Do It, it makes this possible. You want to limit damage to the economy and get the recovery going- Just Do It, it makes this possible. People of all shades of opinion can agree on this- its the only thing that works, even when there is a lack of enough proper accurate testing. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Does housing and rising oil prices combine to affect growth and by how much. Note the comments about oil prices. That cost of producing a barrel is only $25 a barrel, thats the average cost according to John Herold Inc. a research company for finding oil, developing the field,pumping it, and delivering it to storage. Oil Analytics president Fingerman thinks prices at $85 are not supported by fundamentals and prices should be $30 to $40 lower. Fadel Gheit of Oppenheimer also thinks industry fundamentals do not support prices above $60. What will this do in the long run? Will China's growth slow after the Olympics? Are alternative fuels and more fuel efficient cars, and a shift to smaller cars, and even electric cars, going to have an impact down the road in gasoline consumption. Geopolitical instability from Nigeria, Iran and most recently Kurish Iraq and Turkey has been part of the runup in oil prices, also insufficient inventory buildup for the winter season, and the generally low rates of replenishment of oil that is being consumed with new exploration. How many of these factors may reverse in the coming years? ...

LyrArc Article Gist
According to Bank of America $362 billion of of subprime Adjustable Rate Mortgages, mostly 2-28 loans which adjust after 2 years, will reset in 2008. And in 2008 another $152 billion of other loans such as jumbo mortgages of more than $417,000 and Alt-A loans (category between prime and subprime) also will reset. And all this is happening with falling prices which means less or no equity in the home and little chance of refinancing or selling the home. Upto now the foreclosures had been due not as muchdue to resets as to weak underwriting and falling home prices. Whats ahead is the crest of the reset wave. From the 1.35 million homes in foreclosure this year next years 2008 should see 1.44 million foreclosures according to the Morgage Bankers Association. According to Bear Stearns this will add about 4 months to the supply of existing homes and worsen the price situation. This itself plus the some 20% lower price of foreclosed homes compared to comparable homes in a neighborhood drives the prices down further and creates a vicious cycle. Fed's Ben Beranke sees this affecting the general economy in 2008....

LyrArc Article Gist
Roland Nelles gives 6 reasons why chancellor Merkel is likely to run for chancellor in 2017 and do well. Nelles says the alternative is a Greens, Left party, SPD coalition as in Berlin. But the rest of Germany is too conservative and the very idea of that coalition could bring conservatives together behind Merkel, including the CSU. It would give CDU voters second thoughts about switching to the anti-immigrant AfD party. Also important he says is that the immediacy of the refugee issue could fade as the German government better handles the refugee situation, including security, housing and integration. And as the agreement with Turkey is holding for controlling flow of refugees and turning them back. Also compared to SPD Merkel is still 8-10 points ahead in polls today says Nelles, so that there are still many Merkel supporters. In addition to what Nelles says, Strack in DW.com points out how Merkel's openness even showing emotions sometimes, about how the refugee crisis caught her and the German government unprepared, could help her in coming months. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
A new loan disbursement to Greece of $8.5 billion euros goes ahead in June 2017. Greece has to repay 7 billion euros in July 2017. The German parliament set as a condition for approval that the IMF also participate in the Greece bailout. Germany's finance minister Schauble stated that it was particularly important to increase Greece's competitiveness,  to help Greece "stand on its own  two feet" by the middle of 2018. The IMF under Christine Lagarde, and the eurozone group say that Greece has implemented the reforms requested. Greece's ruling party Syriza split over accepting the reform package, with its leader Tsipras finally accepting the need for the Third Bailout program following a referendum and parliamentary elections in 2015. The IMF under Lagarde has stepped in to support Greece in its effort to seek conditions that make the debt program workable for Greece.