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A rock sample of the moon is brought back by China's Chiang 6 Mission lunar exploration program on June 25, 2024.

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Majority think she brings right kind of change, has a clear vision, and right temperament -for Kamala Harris says Nate Cohn in NYT.

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Varun Chakravarty 5-42, Indian spinners, help India win the cricket semi-final of the Champions Trophy against New Zealand in March 2025.

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Problems with the old 4% rule for withdrawal from savings for retirees in 2013 include- the decreasing income from bonds, the high P/E 10 ratio of 23 for the stock market in the U.S. in 2013, the timing of entry into retirement and the economic conditions, inflation and unforeseen expenses. The 4% rule needs to be modified in today's conditions.

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Two months of lockdown will cost France 120 billion euros. 

France's Budget Minister says debt will reach 9% of gross economic output in 2020.

Throughout the financial crisis in the eurozone France was restricted to keep the deficit under 3 percent and public debt at 60% of GDP -with some flexibility but with warnings- under the Stability and Growth Pact of 1997 fiscal rules underpinning the European Monetary Union. Today the debt is at 115% of GDP up from 100% before the crisis. 

Now the deficit will be three times the 3% envisaged by SGP.

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Peggy Noonan, spokeswoman for president Reagan, writes in the WSJ during a period of increased tensions in Hong Kong, in world trade, and in Britain. She cautions that moderation is a not fully understood or appreciated virtue. Noonan reflects conservative opinion in the U.S.

She says first China pushed too far resulting in earlier Hong Kong umbrella protests followed by today's protests.

Now that Carrie Lam and Beijing have backed down and withdrawn the extradition bill, the protests having made the statement, would continuing unrest and pushing Beijing too far be in their interests. Would it be in worldwide interests if that would worsen tensions from trade frictions, reducing levels of trust. 

This also applies to Mr. Johnson and Mr. Cummings in Britain's minority government. Having lost their majority are they pushing too far asks Noonan. 

 

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China is gradually getting back to normal. With few new infections from coronavirus, factories are starting production again, and stores are reopening, people gradually coming outdoors.

For factories there is one problem- as Europe and the U.S. battle the coronavirus and impose their own lockdowns demand has evaporated. Factories are seeing canceled orders and having to operate with smaller number of workers.

All the graphs shown in this report for Beijing traffic congestion, Guangzhou subway rides and property transactions show the curves for 2020 way, way below the curves for 2019.

This also gives some idea of what the road ahead will look like in the U.S. and Europe. That the recovery will take time and patience after a difficult period ahead tackling the coronavirus state by state. Lost jobs, diminished confidence and fallen income will take time to recover.

 

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Sir Keir Starmer is elected leader of the Labour Party in Britain with 56% of the vote. Starmer 57 years old, is a human rights lawyer who was director of public prosecutions from 2008 to 2013, and elected Labour leader just 5 years after being elected to parliament. Angela Rayner, shadow education secretary won the deputy leadership race with 52% of the vote. 

The new shadow chancellor is the MP for Oxford East since 2017 Ms. Anneliese Dodds. She is a former academic and member of the European parliament. Jo Stevens the MP from Cardiff East is the new shadow foreign secretary. He resigned from the Corbyn team in 2017 to oppose Brexit.

Corbyn sceptics swept the elections to the National Executive Committee. Starmer supports EU freedom of movement to continue, public ownership of services such as post, rail and energy, and raising income tax on the top 5% of earners.

 

 

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2023 is the year when electric cars will finally be made competitive with gasoline cars with the help of government incentives, competition, and lower raw material prices. This trend will continue. Battery powered GM vehicles will cost $30,000 this fall. The Inflation Reduction Act provides government tax credits of $7500 for electric car buyers.

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World leaders at COP26 in Glasgow 2021 agree to pledge that they will end deforestation by 2030. This includes countries with large forest areas such as Russia, Brazil and Indonesia, and countries in Africa. Forests act like a carbon sink absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. About one third of global emissions are absorbed in this way.

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Japan's hopes of reaching a trade agreement with the US before tariffs of 24% kick in in July are now nil. Upper House elections coming up in Japan mean that the ruling LDP party could lose seats in parliament if it makes any concessions. US sees Japan as stalling in trade negotiations.

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Indianapolis and Terre Haute in Indiana, Columbus in Georgia, Whitesburg in Kentucky and Hutchinson near Wichita, Kansas are smaller cities in areas that suffered a drain of people in the past. They are cities that offer $5000 to $7000 in 2025 to remote workers to attract them to move back to the midwest and central states.

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Cummins raises questions about the Australian team. Lyons failed to get a wicket in 34 overs against South Africa 2025. Is the Lyons, Hazlewood, Cummins, Starc bowling with few new additions not enough for the games ahead? Markram's 136 against Australia showed the need for changes in Australia's lineup.

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Sky Sports talks to Gill and Stokes at Headingley Leeds First Test. Stokes says the confidence in the dressing room made a difference. India scored five centuries and Britain 3 centuries. This is the second highest run chase for England in Test cricket. Pant got a century in both innings another first for Indian wicket keeper.

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DW.com looks at what it means for first Finland, and then Sweden joining NATO. For Finland the invasion of Ukraine where people speak Russian and have close cultural ties comes as a reminder of past history. Under the treaties that ended the war with Napoleon in 1815 after the Congress of Vienna, Finland was given to Russia and Norway wrested from Denmark was given to Sweden. Jens Stoltenberg now head of NATO is a former prime minister of Norway. Russia invaded Finland in 1940, and Germany invaded Norway during that war. As a result there are historical reasons why 62% of Finns support joining NATO.  What this means for NATO- This means NATO's border with Russia will double from 1300 to 2600 kilometres. Finland would be different alone compared to being part of the NATO alliance. For NATO this means 280,000 Finns in its army if mobilized under Finland's compulsory military service would be added to defending the border. Finland already is training with US equipment and training since 2015 and is in a joint defense plan with NATO. Sweden's situation is quite different. It has benefitted from neutrality and never been occupied by any power in the 500 years of European wars for balance of power in the region. In the last 200 years Sweden has acted as a neutral state and stayed out of 2 world wars and other conflicts. For Sweden to join NATO it has to change this historical neutrality and has to be convinced that the invasion of Ukraine and the immense destruction in Ukraine with over 4 million refugees mostly women and children is an event that has changed everything. If Sweden were to join NATO not much could be expected for ground forces as Sweden has a small army. Sweden also has no land border with Russia. Sweden is on the Baltic Sea which is also a border for Russia. Sweden does bring 100 modern fighter aircraft and 8 modern submarines that would secure the Baltic Sea.  If one or both countries were to join NATO this would happen by June and both countries would join NATO immediately after 30 NATO member countries approve this.  ...

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The $369 billion climate and tax package that is coming out of a deal arranged by Schumer in the US Senate could be a path breaking action. It would enable president Biden to get close to the climate goals he promised last year of cutting US carbon emissions by 50% by 2030 over 2005 levels to combat effects of climate change. The $369 billion package would get the US to reduce carbon emissions by 40% in 2030 over 2005 levels.  Severe effects of climate change with fires and floods in the US, Europe, and Asia have brought a new spotlight to the issues facing the world and the fact that something needs to be done quickly with the US leading the way. Senator Manchin a holdout because he comes from a coal mining state was a holdout. He was persuaded to join as the new legislation provides for support for transmission lines and other investment during a transition period so that it does not affect the economy in his state. The transition period is now accepted as Europe now looks at gas and coal as a temporary resource following the cutoff of Russian supplies and the US will be shipping more LNG to Europe during this period. The vote for this legislation is planned under reconciliation so that the vice president MS. Harris can cast the deciding vote for Democrats in a 50-50 split Senate. Republicans oppose the legislation. Manchin now says it will reduce inflation. Briefly it will give $7500 to every buyer of an electric vehicle EV, and $4000 for a used EV. It would give rebates for heat pumps that increase home energy efficiency. Billions of dollars would be spent for clean energy industries, and for solar, wind, geothermal, other renewable energy projects. Democrats want to get the legislation through the Senate quickly by next week, and so secret were Schumer's negotiations that most Democrats did not know about it. Coming on the heels of the $280 billion CHIPS and Science bill for $280 billion investment in US semiconductor industry, this will be a big win for president Biden and shows the persistence and patience of Mr. Biden is paying off.   ...

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This report in the WSJ shows in an extraordinary detailed way going back 20 years how under each administration Bush, Obama, Trump in the US and Angela Merkel in Germany, Hollande and Macron in France, the serious differences in the world view and thinking between president Putin of Russia and western leaders were simply ignored or overlooked. Mr. Putin truly believed in Ukraine and Russia as one people, researched history on his own and wrote an essay that made him more convinced than ever about his views that separation of Ukraine from Russia was an artificial construct, more so in the last two years.  By integrating the German and European Union economies with Russia and China without coming to terms with the large separation in views of the world and ignoring Russian views because of its economic size as an economy the size of France, both Merkel and Obama's policies failed to grasp what was happening. This report shows in much detail each event since 2005 that led to increasing distrust by Putin of western leaders.  The integration of the economies of the west and the integration of supply chains with China and Russia continued even after serious concerns had developed during the Trump administration. US and European business was operating on a completely different path not taking this into account in any way. It was only in the Biden administration and after the election of Scholz in Germany in 2021 that the situation was becoming clear. On the other side Ukraine itself and its people had changed in ways that were not anticipated by people in Germany or Russia, much less the leaders in Germany or Russia. There was a genuine sense that Ukraine was a national identity leading to the Ukraine resistance and a prolonged conflict. Brendan Simms, Cambridge historian shows how Europe went through conflicts and wars in its history as each of the major European nations sought advantage from 1453 to the present in his book, "Europe- The Struggle for Supremacy 1453 to the Present." Small gains were made in these wars that dragged on bringing great suffering to ordinary people.These wars involved England, France, Spain, Netherlands, Germany, Sweden, Denmark and Russia. ...

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This France24 report looks at the question of whether the policies of four term German chancellor Angela Merkel emboldened Russia under president Putin to launch the invasion of Ukraine. FR24's interview with the vice president of the German Marshall Fund and head of its Berlin office, Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, shows there are many reasons why Merkel's policies were serious errors that ignored caution from past experience and from other western leaders in the US and Eastern Europe. Kleine-Brockhoff says that "Europe did not go wrong, Germany and France did. France and Germany tend to speak for the rest of Europe. Bit these mis-assessments were made in Paris and Berlin, not elsewhere. Eastern Europe didn't go wrong. Northern Europe did'nt go wrong."  Kleine-Brockhoff says the war in Ukraine calls for an urgent re-assessment of the German and French policy towards Russia. "Not only is the post Cold-War order crumbling before our eyes, so are the strategies employed by Germany and France." Under particular scrutiny comes Merkel's policy, and policy supported by Steinmeier of the SPD, that took German dependence on Russian energy supplies from 36% during the annexation of Crimea to 55% in March 2022 with the invasion of Ukraine. Germany's conservative Die Welt has this to say- "What Germany and Europe have experienced over the last days is nothing short of the reversal of the Merkel policies of guaranteeing peace and freedom through treaties with despots," describing Merkel's policies as "an error." About France Kleine-Brockhoff says there were lofty ambitions under Sarkozy and Macron of European strategic autonomy, which did not correspond to reality, to fantasies of European armies when there was nothing but NATO. It is not dialogue with Putin and Russia that was a problem, says Laure Delcour, international relations expert at the Sorbonne Nouvelle in Paris. Some form of dialogue is necessary she says, but the dialogue has to have clear objectives. We must not confuse cause with consequence, she says. We know  that NATO enlargement had a big impact on Russia's perceptions, but the real problem is how Russia responded to enlargement. "In this case the problem is the consequence."  ...

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US president Biden signs a broad executive order on July 9, that is directed at promoting competitive behaviour in the American economy, and taking action against companies that have anti competitive behaviours. It also aims to limit corporate dominance that then can lead to anti competitive behaviours. These types of behaviours puts consumers, workers and small compoanies at a disadvantage. The Biden plan stretches from the smaller items such as hearing aids and baggage fees, to the task of putting in place the first antitrust regulation on tech companies Apple, Google, Amazon and others. Industries Biden sees as needing help are agriculture, healthcare, shipping, transportation, technology, and labor practices that limit wages and mobility. In making the executive order the White House says it "will lower prices for families, increase wages for workers and promote innovation and even faster economic growth." As each step is taken by the Biden administration to help workers, families, women and children, the situation is a reminder of the actions taken by Franklin Delano Roosevelt at another period of crisis in the nation's history. The July 9 executive order will create a Competition Council as proposed by Tim Wu, special assistant to the president for technology and competition policy in the White House National Economic Council. The Compeititon Council task will be to get federal agencies to take action to promote competitive behaviours for the first time since the 1980's when Republican presidents Reagan, Bush, and Democratic presidents Clinton, Obama, allowed such behaviours in some industries to get entrenched. In Biden's own words "the rise of monopolies weaken labor." In each industry agencies will now have the task of pushing back against anti-competitive behaviours already put in place by companies. In agriculture it will help small farmers, in pharmaceutical sector it will help the American people deal with a problem that has no end in sight of high drug prices and practices that support this. In all areas of the economy the Biden plan is for a new coordinated effort across all the agencies of the government and under the leadership of the president, to restore the vibrant economy to what it was before the long deterioration through anti-competitive behaviours. ...

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A 1000 mile windswept coastline and 300 days of sunshine make the southern African nation of Namibia an attractive location for green hydrogen projects. Green hydrogen is produced using wind and solar energy. There is a 50 fold increase in green hydrogen projects in just the last 12 months globally. The costly technology needs many projects to get to lower costs through technological advances. Germany is doing a pilot project in Luderitz, Namibia. Luderitz will need a deep water project to ship the fuel out.   Renewable wind and solar energy is used to distil the hydrogen atoms in water, as opposed to the currently used method to maky hydrogen from fossil fuels, known as gray hydrogen, or blue hydrogen if the emissions from fossil fuels are captured. Namibia is chosen as its natural advantages could bring the costs down faster. Other locations being adopted are Morocco, Australia, and Chile. The two sites in Namibia had bids from Africa's Sasol, Australia's Fortescu, Germany's Enertrag and Hyphen Hydrogen.  Hyphen Hydrogen won the bid for the two sites. It says the $9.4 billion project is targeting 300,000 metric tons of green hydrogen production a year from 5 gigawatts of renewable energy generation capacity by 2030. "Now all of a sudden the desert has become valuable," says Namibia's finance minister Mr. Shiimi. Additional asset for Namibia is that it ranks highest after Cape Verde in Africa for transparency, creating ease of doing business. It is ranked 57 in Transparency International rank of transparency for countries in 2020. China is 78, India 86 in rank. Namibia is putting up $45 million for the feasibility study on the project with the sesert scrub land an hour from Luderitz, once a diamond mining town on a rocky Atlantic coastline in 1900. Two sites are located in the area each 675 square miles. South Africa is severely short of energy supplies and a pipeline is being considered to take the Namibian hydrogen to South Africa. The African region is expanding in renewable energy. Lake Turkana Wind Power Project in Kenya provides 17% of installed electricity capacity in Kenya with 365 wind turbines.     ...

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Nigel Farage is making a comeback in European Union elections in Britain. He led the Independence party and has formed a new Brexit Party to contest the elections. He says the Brexit supporters were deserted in the way the Conservative Party bungled Britain's leaving the European Union. As a result of loss of support for Theresa May with the mess created by repeated failures to pass Brexit deals in parliament, some polls show the Brexit Party surging to 34% of the vote inEuropean elections. The Conservative Party at 11%, and the Labour Party at 21%. The Liberal Democrats at 13%. The Conservative party fragments, and the Labour Party loses supporters to the Greens and Liberal Democrats. Another change is that some of the pro-Brexit supporters of the Labour Party in the middle and the north of the country may shift their vote to the Brexit party. The Conservative party's losses of support are a result of the failure of Theresa May to hold her party together. In the case of the Labour party even though it had 40%  of the vote in the last British election, it is faced with the fact that it has an odd mix of supporters. In the north and the middle of the country its working class support comes partly from Pro-Brexit supporters, and in the cities and London the support is from more liberal, better educated people. This puts both the main parties in the situation which they never thought they would be in.  Mr. Farage says its OK for Britain to leave the European Union without a deal. Prime Minister May has taken great pains to forge a deal, even a cross party deal with Labour if necessary. This has alienated the most fervent Brexit supporters in the Conservative Party who favor a no-deal Brexit. Much of this comes from caution that a no-deal Brexit would hurt Britain's economy and lower growth. A large majority in parliament believes a no deal Brexit would be disastrous for Britain. Nigel Farage does not have to deal with such distant matters as economic growth, the British pound and GDP.       ...

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See Tim Walz's full speech at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, August 21, 2024 in his video from CBS News. Lyrarc has selected excerpts from Tim Walz's speech above showing what the Trump Republican party plans to do that will gut Social Security and Medicare, and kill the Affordable Care Act, gut efforts to lower exaggerated cost of medical drugs and healthcare. This excerpt shows what Harris will do to build a better life for workers and families and people across all 51 States, in education, childcare, healthcare, cost of living, and housing costs- "We’ve got something better to offer the American people. It starts with our candidate, Kamala Harris. From her first day — as a prosecutor, as a district attorney, as an attorney general, as a United States senator, and then our vice president — she’s fought on the side of the American people. She’s taken on the predators and fraudsters. She’s taken down the transnational gangs. And she’s stood up to powerful corporate interests. She has never hesitated to reach across that aisle if it meant improving your lives. And she’s always done it with energy, with passion and with joy. Folks, we’ve got a chance to make Kamala Harris the next president of the United States. But I think we owe it to the American people to tell them exactly what she’d do as president before we ask them for their votes. So this is the part — clip and save it, and send it to your undecided relatives so they know: If you’re a middle-class family, or trying to get into the middle class, Kamala Harris is going to cut your taxes. If you’re getting squeezed by prescription drug prices, Kamala Harris is going to take on Big Pharma. If you’re hoping to buy a home, Kamala Harris is going to help make it more affordable. And no matter who you are, Kamala Harris is going to stand up and fight for your freedom to live the life that you want to lead, because that’s what we want for ourselves, and it’s what we want for our neighbors."       ...

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Wilkins was British inventor, scientist and educator with profound unbelievable impact. Some thoughts on what it means for America to reject Science in 2024 for Climate Change in the face of sudden floods, wildfires- for Western civilization was based on Science since 1648, Eastern civilizations missing it completely. When George Washington was fighting in the Pennsylvania country against American Indians and the French, on the other side of the Atlantic a Britisher from Somerset was part of the British East India Company that had won control of Bengal in northeastern India. In 1760 Wilkins arrived in Calcutta a youth of 21 as clerk for the British East India Company, rising to examiner for new employees at the company. It is Wilkins as a printer who creates the first typography for both Persian and Bengali, and who translates for the first time the Bhagavad Gita into English from Sanskrit in 1785.  This is of interest mainly because the American colonists were fighting an Empire whose chief base of the Empire was in Bengal and which generated the funding of the British war against the American colonists led by Washington, Adams and Jefferson. This was before Bengal also funded the British fight against Napoleon in Spain and Portugal. And by the 1850's funded Britain's wars in Chinese ports including Hong Kong. Wilkins is key to this puzzle about India and China- why they succumbed to European colonialism? Gandhi says the Indians invited them in as they were mainly shopkeepers and commercial interests. It is also true that after the end of the 30 years war in 1648, the British, French and Dutch followed Science creating the scientific revolution and the industrial revolution, that India and China missed.  Imagine then what it means to reject Science in the West in 2024 on Climate Change? Gandhi wrote Hind Swaraj in November 1909 on the boat Kildonan Castle from London to South Africa. In it he says Indians have to look in the mirror and accept that it is they the princes of India who invited the British sepoys of the British East India Company into Indian states for their wars and losing Bengal, then the rest of India. ...

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The main lines of the Message to Congress by the US president in 2025 related to flood of illegal immigration, and illegal fentanyl flows with deaths of Americans in the most vulnerable neighborhoods across 51 states over 12 years, 490,000 deaths, more than Vietnam. "The media and our friends in the Democrat Party kept saying we needed new legislation to secure the border—but it turned out that all we really needed was a new president.” As it turns out the legislation Biden with Republicans led by Senator Lankford negotiated in Feb 2024 did not have the strong action taken in the first 100 days to deter illegal immigration and remove illegal immigrants endangering safety in American neighborhoods. That legislation did not have provisions to bring illegal fentanyl flows into the US to an end with strong action including tariffs on CMC countries Canada, Mexico and China responsible for the fentanyl flows into the US. Transgender was another issue addressed in the speech with DJT clearly stating that their only two genders and against mutilation of bodies, with trust in God about the gender God placed us in as best for us. Other issues were about tariffs action going into effect on reciprocal tariffs on April 2 with all nations including India, Europe, China, Japan, South Korea. DJT cited India for high tariffs, South Korea with 4 times American tariffs, and European nations. The goal was to ensure a level playing field for the US to compete- "what they charge us, we charge them." As explained in an earlier article in the WSJ reciprocal tariffs in the world context mean commodities products would not have price increases for the US consumer, smartphones autos would increase but this would be temporary as these nations play fairly and create a level playing field, and these products manufacturing is shifted to the US. This would mean growth for US auto industry and smartphones coming from inside the US and from India offsetting concentration of production in China. Apple has told the president it will start making inside America investing hundreds of billions in the US from now on. ...

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Jeanne Whalen on the Two Speed Economy in the US September 2025- diverging paths of low and high income Americans. With the new administration in 2025 priorities shift to immigration and what to do about 14 million illegal migrants from Latin America and other places, war on fentanyl and drug trafficking gangs with hundreds of thousands of lives lost to fentanyl and drugs in the US, crime and safety which includes the unprecedented illegal movement of drug trafficking in the Nation, and to a bold posture on using US advantages of its huge market to get European Union, Japan, South Korea, and China to level the playing field on trade bring jobs home.The Biden administration had already conceded to DJT's approach in its one term presidency by shifting on uncontrolled illegal migration but not fast enough, by not removing DJT's tariffs, and failing to take an aggressive posture on fentanyl and drug trafficking. Of the DJT plan US has tariff based revenues of 10--15% for all countries imports into US can that it redirect to groups to soften any effects of tariffs. DJT administration oil transition policy of stretching out the transition to give middle class and lower classes cost of living relief was also accepted by the Biden administration and is now the policy of Democrat run California state government.  The US economy was slowing in 2024 under the Biden administration. What has changed in 2025 is that the US stock markets are responding to steps taken by the DJT Republican administration to lower the cost of doing business by softening regulations, and giving US business the upper hand in different industries, and rebuilding the manufacturing sector with calls for EU and Japan/South Korea to invest more in the US as a quid pro quo for market access. This has led to increase in the value of market portfolios of the income earners above 250,000, or 10% of American households. As this happens the process of trade renegotiation has introduced some uncertainty in 2025 and businesses are looking for more clarity before increasing investment and slowing job hiring which hurts younger people entering the job market and lower income Americans. Were things better under Biden? Government Covid assistance and payouts in the early years 2020-2021 helped lower income workers, as this faded and the cost of living autos, housing increased sharply under Biden in 2022-2024 the situation deteriorated. The situation today is similar to the situation in 2024 with the difference in 2025 that inflation is coming down just as government help is receding. And added factor is the DJT administration plan to tackle head on the increasing cost of Medicaid to about $1 trillion by adding new requirements and reducing subsidies. The federal workforce had a disproportionate share of black workers and the policy changes to reduce the federal workforce have increased black unemployment from 6.1% under Biden in August 2024 to 7.5 % a year later. Hispanics have seen slight improvement in unemployment to 5.3% in 2025, and the middle class incomes also have held up and are holding steady. Meantime Bloomberg points out that one third of people in the top 10% are living paycheck by paycheck because of high cost of housing, university education for children, and inflation.     ...