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This televised debate of Republican presidential candidates focussed on Iran's development of a nuclear weapon. Rick Perry said he would impose sanctions on Iran's central bank, something the Obama administration is reluctant to do because it might disrupt international oil markets. Romney and Gingrich said they would use military action if other measures failed. Huntsman called for a complete withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan and Iraq, saying: "This nation's future is not in Afghanistan. this nation's future is not in Iraq." Ron Paul said hw opposed military interventions in conflicts overseas. Perry and Gingrich said U.S. aid to Pakistan should be suspended because Pakistan was not a reliable partner.

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This editorial in the WSJ finds problems in the policies of the Tories and the Labor Party before the parliamentary elections in Britain in May 2015. It says Chancellor Osborne hurt lower income families disproportionately by raising the value added tax from 17.5% to 20%. Lower oil prices are lowering prices for middle and low income families, not the policies of the Conservative Party, it points out. Not much has been done to increase housing supply, with housing costs taking up about half of a family's income in some places. It finds little comfort in the targeted subsidies of the Tories, or the minimum wage ideas of Labor.

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A study by the director of the obesity center and professor of global nutrition at the University of north Carolina at Chapel Hill states that based on data collected from 20,000 patients in China over the last 15 years obesity has increased 1.2% a year among men in that time. The study says that more than 25% of the adults in China are overweight or obese and that the number could double in the next 20 years. Its a result mainly of improving living standards which make vegetable oil affordable, and beef and dairy foods more available and affordable. A sedentary lifestyle for many Chinese plays a part as well.

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Oil price drops by $5 in one day to $65 a barrel as Iran US/Israel ceasefire June 23, 2025 following the carefully measured Iran missile strike (14 missiles) strike on Qatar airbase with early warning to the US. The move was seen as a moderation shown by Iran, and DJT pursued the option of ceasefire with Qatar's mediation. An Israel Iran ceasefire is expected in the next 12 hours.

This closes a chapter of the nuclear weapons development proliferation pursued by Iran and blocked by Israel and the US. It started with Israel's strikes on Iran nuclear sites. 

This puts the attention back to the economy and completing the trade agreements under the Trump administration's tariffs and efforts to level playing field in world trade.

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The factor that push oil to test new thresholds. How the value of the dollar against other currencies such as euro affects all this. Goldman's year end forecast of $85 per barrel with a risk of it hitting $90 because of poor supply- demand situation. The dollar declined 6% against the euro since the beginning of this year 2007, so this affects the purchasing power of the oil producing countries as oil prices are denominated in US$, and it affects the dollar cost of imported oil into the US because it takes more dollars to buy the same amount of oil. Other factors affecting demand are the credit crunch affecting smaller oil companies exploration budgets, higher prices have not yet affected demand globally, the lower level of inventories at this time compared with last year, and the upcoming hurricane season in the USA.

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China cushions the impact of higher oil prices on the general public by having Petrochina swallow some of the price increase and limiting the amount of price increases at the pump.Expets say that prices inside China reflect $60 a barrel oil and not $100 abarrel oil.

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Report on Climate Science put out by the US Energy Department in 2025 questioning the severity and impending nature of climate change effects. It is challenged by scientists who believe in the severity and impending nature of climate change, quite the opposite. Koonin, a Fellow at the Hoover Instituion at Stanford describes the work and its conclusions. He says the research is peer reviewed and looks at 200 years of climate research. Some of the conclusions- That climate change models claiming catastrophic situations are ultra sensitive and lead to extreme scenarios.  It talks about climate variability, and model deficiencies, data limitations. And says data for climate over continental US show no long term trends for extreme weather events. Global sea level rise of 8 inches since 1800 is not disputed but it says US tide gauge data shows no long term acceleration in warming globe.  On one point there has been agreement even in the Biden administration- what the US does to cut emissions will little effect the global changes in warming- because of coal use by China and India defended as needed for electricity for two billion people, an essential need. Thus the desire for a calculated tradeoff which lets the US take advantage of its abundance of oil and gas to reduce the cost of living for ordinary Americans, also an essential need. Because of the declining cost of natural gas vs coal, coal is in gradual phase out, and declining cost of solar means Germany, China, India are making the shift to solar, and nuclear energy provides another option. The difference is that the DJT administration is taking government out of the effort and letting the private sector work out building of renewable sources. Government is not always the answer as electric cars are likely to make more gains in 2026 than under the Biden administration because of VW, Mercedes, BYD, Ford and GM coming up with cars that can do close to 500 miles on one charge and the cost of an EV down to about $30,000 to $40,000. ...

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The firing of John Bolton as National Security Adviser opens up the possibility of a meeting of Trump with President Rouhani of Iran. There is a need for both sides to begin talks on a nuclear deal that would replace the one Iran signed with president Obama to address issues raised by Mr. Trump and Republicans. Iran and countries that buy oil from Iran such as India, China and Japan have an interest in relief from sanctions imposed by the Trump administration on imports of Iranian oil. The European Union is keen to preserve aspects of the nuclear deal. Relief from sanctions is critical for Iran to develop its economy. The last two decades have seen Iran struggle to develop its economy with the sanctions imposed by  different U.S. administrations.   President Trump expressed flexibility on sanctions saying "we will see what happens. I think Iran has potential. They are incredible people." President Rouhani urged Mr. Trump "to put warmongers aside." Mr. Trump told reporters that he had resisted Mr. Bolton's opinions on issues and realized he had moderate views when compared to someone like Bolton.  Trump told Iran "We are not looking for regime change. We hope we can make a deal and if we can't make a deal thats fine too. But I think they have to make a deal." Helping the U.S. and Iran come to talks is president Macron of France who hopes to setup a meeting at the UN General Assembly which meets next week following his efforts at the G-7 meeting in France last month. In the past when tensions were high in the Straits of Hormuz President Trump refrained from aggravating this by saying actions that are "disproportionate" should not be taken and respected Iranian intentions. The tone of the conversation between the two sides has moderated to the point where both sides realize the need for coming to some compromise. This is in sharp contrast to the period a few months ago with rising tensions in the Straits of Hormuz and the seizure of an Iranian ship. Bolton's opinions were not the only issue for president Trump. He was also seen as the source of leaks including one that said Mike Pence, the Vice President, had opposed Mr. Trump's plan to bring the Taliban to Camp David. Also contributing to the new climate for talks is Mike Pompeo the Secretary of State, who has promoted the idea of talks with Iran. He told the media about such a meeting at the UN General Assembly in New York- "Sure. The president has made it very clear that he is prepared to meet with no pre-conditions." The willingness to try new ideas even contrary ones to policy pursued only a short while ago as long as the desired goal is reached is a feature of this presidency and key advisers. From the beginning of the Trump administration there is a firm sense of the need to end the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. and reduce foreign entanglements that have dragged on wasting resources and destroying priorities. With a willingness to try all sorts of approaches even ones that appear to be contradictory always keeping the end goal in sight. ...

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Matt Vela responded to Shailen's comments on this article on the BW site. Comments were on NYTimes columnist Tom Friedman's remarks, about the dangers of overdependence on Mideast oil vs. GM and Ford's efforts to simply move cars off the lot. A quick reading of reader comments about 5-6 (all comments) shows a huge perception and marketing gap for Ford and GM if this is even anywhere near a representative sample, because they were heavily negative. Friedman said in the NYT, that "GM is more dangerous to America's future" than any other company, that "its like a crack dealer" addicting Americans to SUVs in the face of higher gas prices- by offering buyers of its least fuel efficient SUV's gas capped at $1.99 per gallon. He also said GM is in cabal with Ford and DaimlerChrysler to buy votes in Congress. BY May 2006 compared to 2003, in just 3 years, once popular midsize SUV's like the Ford Explorer, Chevy Trailblazer, and Dodge Durango saw a sales plunge of 50%. And this after the gas promotions such as the Ford one for free gas upto $1000 with aprepaid Master Charge debit card, enough for 6000 miles. Add to this zero percent financing. GM offered rebates of $2500 to $3500 per SUV. In this manner the whole profit structure of SUV's is being lowered, and no new strategy is being developed to deal with changing conditions and changing consumer preferences, and a changing global situation....

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This NYT editorial says that before he was elected Mexico's president Nieto, with his book "Mexico- The Great Hope," (Mexico- La Gran Esperanza)presented himself as a candidate who would transform Mexico. Yet says NYT three years into his administration it has turned out to be very different, with no effort to clear up the questions about the murder of 43 students in Guerrero state. Economic growth has not matched the hopes generated after the Pacto de Mexico was approved and new legislation limiting monopolies passed. The slump in oil prices has led to limited results following the opening up of the oil industry to foreign investment. The result is an administration increasingly unpopular in Mexico and failing to deliver on the hope generated in the early months of Pena Nieto's administration. Many of the tasks for transition of Mexico to a modern economy- free of monopolies, crime, a better education system, economic growth in all parts of the country, remain unrealized. During his term as governor of the state of Mexico 2011-2015, Pena Nieto's main achievement was the 608 Compromisos or promises which were placed on the internet website tracking progress on the health, infrastructure, highway and other projects. During the current administration the early results were achieved in the first year through agreement with the rival PAN party for the Pacto de Mexico, to reduce monopolies and open up the oil industry which had falled behind technologically with lack of investment. Since then the progress has been slow, the one bright spot being the auto industry with increased foreign investment. Regional disparities persist with the Bajio region, and the areas around Queretaro, Aguascalientes, near Mexico City growing fastest. Pena Nieto won the 2012 election with 38% of the vote mostly from this region, the incumbent PAN party at 25%, and the left front Of Lopez Obrador 32% drawing support from less developed areas in the south and the rest of the country. Just as the earlier Atenco protests and police action to clear protesters blocking land acesses by the state for expansion of Mexico City's airport, and the Soy 132 student protest movement during Pena Nieto's term as Governor of State of Mexico 2011-2015 affected perception of his administration, the murder of students at Guerrero affects perception of this administration. Nieto comes from the upper sections of the PRI as the nephew of two former governors of the state of Mexico, has a law degree from the Ibero-American University, and a masters degree in business administration from ITAM....

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Kazakhstan state oil company will have a 16.6% share in the consortium that is developing the Kashgan oil field.

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If there is no good succession in Medvedev's view the economic and social development of Russia will slow down significantly, for this reason the First Deputy Prime Minister under Putin puts a lot of significance on getting a good leader in place to continue the development progress of recent years. It is interesting that the thought process behind the remarks shows that the person has reflected a lot on these things, on leadership and good succession and its role in development, on a government and the importance of a good constitution and getting the best out of it, on studying the experience of other countries and being aware of their historical development, the role of a national leader, the constitution and everybody abiding by it, on corruption and its presence in latent and other forms and its different character in different societies. He talks about the importance of a Presidential system for Russia with strong presidential power, and the complete unsuitability of a parliamentary republic for Russia because it appears that the government could end up being weak with a many party coalition, especially in Russia at this time where there are many parties and factions each would be jockeying for power. Coalition governments would not accomplish much leading to stalled economic and social development. Manufacturing is very important to Russia, and adding a high portion of the value added to products is very important,  that Medvedev understands. It appears he has reflected on a lot of things that matter to Russia's development, and would make a different kind of President than Putin. He just might carry forward Russia's development for the next 8 years in a proper manner. From the standpoint of oil prices and availability of supplies, a good environment for cooperation in the energy sector between foreign companies and Russian companies, it appears that Medvedev would offer good leadership for the next 8 years in a Medvedev- Putin combination as President and Prime Minister, a Medvedev-Putin administration. This would also be true in the manufacturing sector in the expanding industries like automobiles and others. ...

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How the major oil companies are discouraging the spread of E85 pumps. What risks do the large oil companies see in the spread of E85 to power vehicles in the US? A discussion of what is happening and why the auto companies and the oil companies are both pursuing different agendas in the E85 situation.

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On one hand Chinese environmental officials are aware of the pollution problems in Beijing and Shanghai and other cities. Levels of nitrogen dioxide in Beijing exceed the WHO clean air guidelines by 78%. On the other hand the newly emerging middle class is seeking car ownership, and the local government officials need growth in the car industry to show good GNP and GDP growth numbers on which their performance is judged. Beijing and Shanghai and Anhui province local governments are part owners of some auto companies. About 416,000 people are employed in the Shanghai area auto industry alone and the auto industry in Shanghai pays about 900 millon dollars in taxes, according to government figures. At seven cars per 1000 population car sales are just beginning to take off. And with China's population its clearly not going to be possible to have the same level of ownership as in the US. The same is true for India. This would increase by many times the current demand for crude oil and increase emissions to the point of creating a disaster. And even today because of lax enforcement, and older models on the road, about 40% of vehicles in Beijing have no pollution controls and the other 60% have varying degrees of pollution controls. Experts say changes to the subsidized oil price policy, refineries that produce cleaner gasoline, policies to build more mass transit which has lagged behind in China as car sales took off (and probably more GNP impact from car plants than mass transit which act as inducement for local officials), and stricter fuel efficiency and auto emissions standards are needed....

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The reasons for pessimism are the effect of the global credit decline which makes it harder for Indian business to get access to credit, and the impact of shrinking export markets overseas. The lower inflation and less need for oil subsidies with the fall in the oil price are positive factors. The biggest positive factors though are the fact that exports amount to a much smaller amount of GDP, about 22%, smaller than other Asian exporting countries, as the export markets shrink. The resilience of its democracy and the energy and dynamism of its young people, added to the demographics that show about half the population is below the age of 25, and 40% under the age of 18, so there will be more wage earners and savings to support growth for decades to come. What experts including at the Economist see as the major advantage is the high savings rate which has risen from 28% in 2003-2004 to 35.5% in 2007 according to the Economist statistics. With this the investment rate in India has grown from 25% in the 1990's to 35% in the last five years since 2003 with Indian manufacturing growing at arate of 12% in 2007. And the Indian investment rate has been covered mostly by domestic savings. The two areas that hobble growth are the education levels and the state of the infrastructure which are challenges for organizations inside and outside the government and for business and will remain so for many years. With the global financial crisis the Indian growth rate is expected to fall to somehwere in the range of 5-6% for 2009 by experts. ...

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News on several fronts in June 2009. On housing, a month to month improvement but still stuggling compared to a year ago levels. The Commerce Department said that an increase in multifamily units led to housing starts jumping 17% in May from April to a 532,000 annual rate. Compared to ayear ago level housing starts was down 45% from May 2008. There were 10 times more homes for sale in April as sold that month, with the typical ratio at 6. With layoff, tight credit and rising mortgage rates laying aheavy hand on these markets, even as developers cut prices deeply to clear unsold homes. On Manufacturing. Industrial production fell 1.1% in May from April, according to the Federal Reserve. Capacity utilization fell to 68.3%. See the graph for the steep drop for auto and auto parts manufacturing. On inflation. The producer price index showed its largest decline in 60 years, according to a Labor Department report. The PPI was down 5% from one year ago, the biggest decline since 1949. It went up from April to May by 0.2%. Part of this was rising oil prices. The core PPI which excludes food and energy dropped 0.1% in May from April. Rising oil prices, a falling US dollar and stabilization in the economy are reducing defaltion risk. At the same time the sign that inflation is not taking root are clearly evident in the slack that is building up with the drop in the capacity utilization rate to 68%, and further declines expected as the auto industry shrinks in 2009, with the huge overcapacity worldwide in that industry. ...

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Experts say the U.S. needs to continue waivers given to 8 countries for purchase of Iranian oil currently till April to avoid a price hike. The Trump administration banned purchase of oil from the Maduro government in Venezuela in late January. Iranian exports are at 1.1 million barrels a day down from 2.3 million barrels a day a year earlier.  

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The US Justice Department has its case against Google- US et al v. Google. 

Ms. Wood said in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Virginia.

“Google is not here because they are big, they are here because they used that size to crush competition.”

US says Google rigged the rules to profit immensely from the arrangements it made after acquisition of Double Click in 2008, so that it controls every link in the chain for the software that sells adspace online, Ms. Wood for the US told Judge Leonie Brinkema on September 9, 2024.

Tech monopolies have acted in ways that have hurt the interests of the American people, in a way that Big Pharma, Big Oil, and other industries have acted to focus on profit at the expense of The People of America.

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Indian trade with Latin America 2025 of $40 billion sees a catchup effort to China's $480 billion trade. Efforts by Brazil's Petrobras and Argentina's YPF to increase exports of oil and LNG to India and increase imports of pharmaceuticals, automobiles and textiles.

Sabrina Olivera from the Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI) says-

"The fact that India is the only democracy in Asia gives it an advantage in Latin America, where most countries in the region are democracies, trust in India is stronger than in China."

Brazil's president Lula and Indian PM Modi worked closely for G20 Summits in New Delhi and Rio de Janeiro. This cooperation and a need for Latin America to diversify from concentration of trade with China, increasing potential with India, can lead to a doubling or tripling of trade with India in a few years.

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China's strategy for climate change action makes allowance for the need for coal as base energy, and insurance to prevent factory shutdowns from shortfalls of hydroelectric energy in drought seasons. It planned 80GW in 2024 for new coal powered plant construction. 

What should the US do? DJT and Republicans including North Dakota Governor Borghum say the US should also make some room for this in transition policy. DJT calls it "drill baby drill." Yet it is more nuanced than that, it means US will produce natural gas to supply Europe and keep gas and electricity prices down as a cost of living action. DJT knows industry has already put in plans for renewable energy production, it just won't be accelerated in ways that won't let the US economy grow. This is the rational for Alaska oil and gas and rare minerals policies shown alongside this article.

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William Burns, a former Deputy Secretary of State, and a former ambassador to Russia 2005-2008, looks at the U.S. and European Union relationship with Russia following the expulsion of Russian spies in 2018. He says the U.S. and the European Union should take strong action, yet hopes this is a passing phase so that a healthier relationship can be built with Russia in the long run through diplomatic channels. Expressing views expressed by former president Obama and other experts, Burns says Russia lacks the alliances and broader support that the U.S. and European Union have, and is much smaller than the larger economies of the Western alliance. Under Putin a strong interventionist position has made Russia look better at home but may not be the best for Russia in the long run, says Burns.   Burns calls for stronger sanctions on the economic elite and business leaders under president Putin. Yet the sanctions have not deterred president Putin and a long run solution needs to be found, including issues such as Ukraine and issues that affect the Russian economy so that the change in relations since 2014 can be reversed. After the Berlin Wall collapsed hopes for integration of the Russian economy into the West were raised yet were not realized for Russia in the years following the Yeltsin government and the Russian economy suffered, first during that period and then during emerging market crises. Russian disillusionment with the West was followed by a more inward looking economy under Putin to help stabilize the Russian economy, accepting devaluation of the ruble to make the Russian economy more competitive in a period of low oil prices. Foreign investment collapsed following the Ukraine crisis but the Russian economy adapted to the shock from oil prices. This was followed by efforts to preserve these gains with an interventionist policy that made the Putin administration look better at home and win popular support with strong action in Crimea and Ukraine. This interventionist policy has played out too far with the meddling in U.S. and European elections creating a backlash that is now taking place. With the European Union, having a traditional policy of restraint and good relations with Russia, openly questioning Russian policy under Putin. Much of that period when Russia responded first to the collapse of the Berlin Wall with the collapse of the Russian economy, and in the following decade facing emerging market crises and collapse of foreign investment -which created a more inward looking Russia under Putin in his third term- is shown in Lyrarc.com. In some ways the Russian response in Ukraine, the effort to bolster popular support at home in elections, and the interventionist approach are linked to the efforts to find a Russian response to the economic crises Russia faced since the fall of the Berlin Wall. Seen in this way a shift to better relations is still possible as a broader perspective is gained.  ...

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Preparations and strategies for the final assault on Tripoli, Libya. The move up the Mediterranean coast to seize an oil refinery in Zawiyah 30 miles from Tripoli, after moving through through the Nafusah mountains in the west. All the time cutting off supplies to the capital and pushing the Gaddafi forces back into the open towards Tripoli, where NATO airstrikes were effective. The rebel army was resupplied with weapons from Qatari special forces and many received military training in Qatar. British and French military advisers provided assistance and aerial/satellite photographs. British, French and Qatari troops provided weapons, fuel, medicine and food. NATO airplanes and predator drones attacked targets as the rebels advanced.

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Fed's Bernanke sees cuts and higher taxes by state and local governments combining with higher oil prices slowing the U.S. economy. He told the Citizen's Budget commisson in New York, that in the long run the most important issue in fiscal matters will be whether the composition of the federal budget serves the public interest. And in saying this he emphasized the benefits of early childhood education, preschool programs and lifelong acquisition of skills. He advised states to take anticyclical steps to avoid the impact of boom and bust spending. One way to do this is to build rainy day funds that are then used for capital investment when times are bad.

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India's current account deficit of 4%- with imports exceeding exports of goods and services- and its small foreign exchange reserves of $293 billion as of April 14, 2012, place serious constraints on building a sizable energy fund to support additional imports of coal and other energy supplies. India is facing severe shortages of coal for the power industry. This places constraints on the country's growth rate. Finance Ministry officials and members of the Planning Commission are looking at setting up a $10 billion energy fund for securing additional supplies of crude oil and coal. Energy imports are placing a strain on India's finances and even the relatively small fund will need money from energy companies in the private sector.

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Krugman addresses the question about the collapsing ruble in December 2014- why the extent of the collapse reflected more than the drop in oil prices? He focusses on the nature of the Russian system under Putin which is based on crony capitalism. Russian businesses borrowed heavily in dollars but generate much of their revenue in rubles, as a result the situation has imploded with the inability of these businesses to make payments as the ruble declined by about 50%. Russia has not generated trade deficits. Capital flight, money taken out of the country by oligarchs, and the nature of the borrowing in foreign currency has led to a serious compounding of the crisis.