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The Economist magazine says Mr. Trump's claim that he could fix things because he is an outsider is now quickly proving to be false. The lack of experience works against the Trump administration as it stumbles from one crisis to another. The tweets that were used to turn voter sentiment against opponents now work the other way. There are other problems that are noted here but not emphasized to the extent they need to be. Mr. Trump, as Peggy Noonan, a Reagan aide, has pointed out in the WSJ, risks alienating the very blue collar vote, and older voters whose interests he claimed to defend. This happened with the Ryan Republican House health care bill as millions of poor Americans approaching retirement were one of the worst affected groups. The Economist points out that the next project to tackle tax reform has the same possible consequences for the Trump blue collar base, as it says Republican plans for tax reform are seen as regressive. Tax reform has eluded previous administrations, and requires more experience in building coalitions which the Trump administration lacks in its confrontational attitude towards Congressmen on both sides of the aisle who disagree with him. Improving the U.S. trade position, infrastructure investment are other areas that the administration plans to tackle, yet the first 100 days show that the lack of experience and the lack of a calm composed mind is hurting the Trump administration, to the point of policies that hurt the very voters who put their faith in the Trump administration to improve things. A similar process is unfolding in Britain as it faces a Brexit negotiation that the Economist points out has been badly handled by prime minister Theresa May, and could lead to worsening the economy if no deal is reached because the European Union sees that it is not in its interest to do so, and Ms. May realizes only later that she has taken nationalist sentiment a bit too far for a European economic arrangement to work and provide mutual benefit. A continent wide economic arrangement that it was the wisdom of past leaders from Britain, France and Germany to support for over six decades is not easily undone by one vote, or one government. ...

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Mr. Trump has decisively changed the Republican party. Most Republicans support Mr. Trump personally, less the Republican party. Mr. Lindsey Graham, a senator from South Carolina, says of the Republican party before Trump that it had become a bit staid, that we looked like the banker next door who may foreclose on your house. Mr. Romney epitomized that in his view. Gone are the views on deficits, on wars, and on imports and transfer of technology to China as being acceptable.  Five years from 2015 when Mr. Trump came into prominence with his new style taking on the establishments of both parties with a fierce disdain for convention, both the Bushes and the Obamas and Clintons, the Republican party is completely transformed. Registered Republicans are now 60% non college educated in 2020 compared to 50% non college educated in 2016. The Trump policies on trade putting American workers first and America first have a resounding popularity with this audience- this should be no surprise after decades of job losses and factories shipped overseas under the previous administrations for 2 decades. Most of these workers are not college educated and are white and had enjoyed a good standard of living with a high school education in American factories till the shift of American manufacturing to China destroyed good paying jobs and impoverished the American working class.  Only 30% of college educated people are registered Republicans in 2020 compared to 40% in 2016. Overwhelmingly about 90% of registered Republicans are white.  They are majority male and older but there is a significant about 40% female and 40% young population under 40 years of age. This might resemble the party put together by Missouri Congressman Harry Truman as he led the Democratic Party in 1948 with a majority of non college educated Democrats, fighting for American workers and America first in the cold war with Russia. Truman also had a rough Missouri farm language and accent comparable to Mr. Trump's rough style and language disdainful of the old establishment and new tech establishment. Both were heavily disliked by the media and both did not let this bother them in any way. Both liked facing large crowds as Truman showed in campaigning by train across the country and Trump has shown in campaign rallies run in his own way. ...

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Smaller biotech firms typically have products in the development stage and are not making money. Now they are facing increasing financial hardship. Even in good times except for a few names like Genentech and Amgen, the others are struggling. They have a hard time raising money, and its coming at a higher price, 90% of equity instead of 50% like before for 5 or 10 or 20 million dollars. Older shareholders are diluted with new capital raised. And some are selling out. Others are going into bankruptcy liquidation, after wrenching periods of firing most of the staff. Even blue chip firms like Helicos of Cambridge, Massachusetts, which went public in 2007, and has backing of advisors like Steven Chu, the Nobel Prize laureate, are in trouble; with its DNA reader designed to produce custom tailored cancer treatments at $1 million a piece. It has not booked a sale, faces competition from a reader developed by two companies, Roche and Illumina of San Diego. It almost ran out of cash last year. Helicos shares $18 last year, are at 54 cents. According to Burrill and Company, a venture capital concern, 100 of the publicly traded biotechs this year may be lost as companies fail or get taken over. 120 of the 360 publicly traded biotechs have less than 6 months cash left, compared with 12 a year ago, says Burrill. Already 10 have declared bankruptcy according to Biotechnology Industry Organization. BIO is asking Congress to step in and for the government through the National Institutes of Health to provide matches for private investment in small startups with promising treatments. All this is happening as companies are spending large sums for mergers like the Pfizer Wyeth merger. ...

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Ji Chaozhu, immigrated to the U.S. during the Japanese invasion of China on the advice of Zhou Enlai. He studied in the U.S and returned to China in 1949. He was the main interpreter for the Chinese leaders in their meetings with American leaders from 1954-1979.

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Ekrem Imamoglu, three time elected Mayor of Istanbul follows a career similar to that of Erdogan who became Mayor of Istanbul and was then elected prime minister in 2003, as the administration of the CHP party failed to manage the economy. A period of economic growth followed with increasing foreign investment and Erdogan was reelected till 2013 when he decided to run for president following the term limits for prime minister. At that time his rule had become increasingly authoritarian. He was elected with smaller majorities with no effective opposition leader ,and the Middle East in turmoil with ISIS and Syria's civil war. Erdogan fought a tough election against a civil servant candidate from CHP turning out the nationalist  and conservative vote.in 2020. By this time the economy was having high inflation and his popularity was down, and he won barely with 52% of the vote. By 2019 Ekrem Imamoglu, 47 years, emerged as a more effective opposition leader, winning election for Mayor of Istanbul. He won again in 2024 and is now emerging as an alternative to run the country. Erdogan is 71 years and the world around Turkey has changed with DJT in the US, and Russia- Ukraine peace talks, trade tariffs worldwide, and the investment climate completely different, inflation increasing to 39 percent, and no easy solutions to economic problems. Some of the conservative and small business vote is no longer assured for Erdogan as the economy and Turkey's situation in Europe has changed. ...

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Difficult conditions for public sector unions as state governors work to reduce deficits. A weak economy leads to concessions by private sector unions in 2010-2013. This is one of the most difficult periods in union history following the financial crisis of 2008 and large job losses in many industries, especially the auto industry. Maher describes conditions in different industries including telecom, auto, airlines oil, retail,and rail.

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A recent study by the IMF shows that China has accumulated foreign exchange reserves that are twice what would be needed for traditional purposes such as supporting the economy in a financial crisis. China is still very much a developing country with per capita annual income of $3000, low consumer spending, and rising inflation. This makes the policy of accumulating reserves and preserving an undervalued exchange rate to support export companies counterproductive. There is growing debate about this as inflation is becoming difficult to control. Yu Yongding, an advisor to the PBOC monetary policy committee says China as a developing country should not be exporting capital, which should be used to raise living standards. A rising exchange rate would increase spending power of people throughout China. Fan Gang, head of China's National Economic Research Institute, was a member of the central bank monetary policy committee. He wrote in a recent essay arguing for a higher exchange rate, and societal, tax and other changes that help increase China's household spending. Central Bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said recently that China's foreign exchange reserves have exceeded reasonable levels that the country needs, adding to inflation risks and making it difficult to conduct monetary policy. The reserves are now over $3 trillion, pasing that mark in March 2011 after increasing 25% in the last year....

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US president Biden's $2 trillion infrastructure spending plan is being compared to the New Deal infrastructure plans of Franklin Delano Roosevelt in the 1930's. FDR was preceded by Republican administrations under Hoover and other presidents who followed policies that can be compared to the Reagan administration policies when public sector spending was not seen to be as efficient as private sector spending. By the time of the economic collapse in the 1930's it had become clear that only the federal government could save the country in the depression. During the pandemic and collapse of the health systems it was clear that only the federal government could save the country. It is now also evident that infrastructure building led by the government can rebuild America. In the 1930's and during other periods in American history such as the building of the Erie Canal and other public sector infrastructure projects in the 19th century it was the federal government that led the way to building America. ...

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The U.S. Border Patrol apprehended 327,577 illegal immigrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border in fiscal year 2011, ending Sept 30. This is a steep decline from the 1.6 million apprehended crossing the border in 2000. The numbers have been dropping since the 2009 financial crisis and high unemployment in construction and other trades employing migrants. The figures for 2011 suggest a drop of about 25% from 2010. Researchers at the Pew Hispanic Center, say the balance now is about zero for people entering the U.S. across the border from Mexico and people returning to Mexico. In fact there are stories of money being sent to migrant workers without jobs in the U.S. by families in Mexico, which has affected the flow of migrant workers.

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Oil traders are pricing in much higher oil prices- with $150 not being inconceivable- because of Mideast unrest. They see this unrest playing out over a long period of time, and do not see this changing even if the Libyan situation returns to normal tomorrow. Saudi Arabia will need to price oil at $85-90 a barrel just to meet the economic demands for a growing population, says Rachel Ziemba, analyst at Roubini Global Economics. Saudi King Abdullah recently promised $150 billion in new housing, higher wages and other benefits to prevent protests. The fiscal pressures are growing in these countries. A $15-$20 premium for unrest is assigned by Paramount Options, a trader at the New York Mercantile Exchange.

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A former treasury secretary, and economist at Bradesco Management, Joaquim Levy, is appointed central bank chief for the second term of president Dilma Rousseff. During Rousseff's first term Brazil's currency lost a third of its value and the economy faces low growth and high inflation. Financial markets expect the new central bank chief to pursue conservative policies to keep Brazil's investment grade ratings. Levy has been in this kind of environment before. In Lula Silva's first term the economy faced many problems with high debt, prospect of default, declining currency, and lack of confidence in financial markets. Levy took over at Treasury during 2003-2006, when he pursued debt reduction and improved confidence. He is a University of Chicago trained economist and former IMF official.

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Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, says "the integrity of the City matters to the economy of Britain," as he takes strong action to safeguard financial benchmark rates set in the City of London. Following the manipulation of LIBOR for which banks paid heavy fines this is a major issue. New legislation will make it a criminal offense, punishable with 7 years in prison. Manipulation will be determined based on the intentions of traders to place trades or share information so that their interests are served above a client's interest. Not just LIBOR, other benchmarks such as London foreign exchange benchmark rate, key gold and silver rate, ICE Brent index and Sterling Overnight Index Average (Sonia), ISADFix, are also included in this legislation.

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Standard & Poors drops Russia's credit ratings to below investment grade on Jan. 26, 2015. It sees economic growth in Russia slowing to 0.5% for the next 3 years. This downgrade puts Russian bonds to the level of junk bonds. Fitch and Moody's have downgraded Russian debt but not to the level of junk bonds. The Russian ruble declined to 68 rubles to the dollar in currency trading. S&P's analysis states that "stresses could mount for Russian corporations and banks that have foreign currency debt service requirements without a concomitant foreign currency revenue stream." The Russian government, says S&P, will then have to chose between supporting the ruble and supporting these foreign corporations seeking help with foreign currency debt service requirements.

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Petrobras bonds lose the investment grade rating from Moody's in 2015. Petrobras went on a borrowing binge after 2011 with a 63% increase in debt to $135 billion by third quarter 2014. About 60% of this debt is in dollars, according to Moody's. As a result Petrobras owes more every time the Brazilian currency, the real, depreciates. Fitch Ratings considers Petrobras as only a one notch above junk rating. Standard & Poors has not downgraded Petrobras yet because it sees the Brazilian government coming to the rescue of Petrobras. Corruption scandals and weak management at Petrobras also are likely to influence future ratings. Petrobras has lost access to capital markets, leading to cuts in production and slow expansion with tight cash flow.

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Frank Portnoy of the University of San Diego law school says it would be a serious mistake for the Obama administraion not to have the same rules for all derivatives, rather than the preferred financial industry option of leaving unregulated privately negotiated derivatives or "swaps" between two financial organizations. Under the current Geithner proposal only the public derivatives or standardized instruments would be traded on regulatory exchanges and required to have cushions of capital in reserve like banks do. Previous efforts of regulation were defeated in the same manner says Portnoy, as when Sen Graham and Wendy Graham head of the CFTC, both worked to get this exception. In December 2000 this lobbying effort paid off with Bill Clinton signing into law measures that largely deregulated derivatives.

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Of 21 reader comments to this piece on banker pay, all except for 4-5, were very critical of the bankers behaviour, including many of their colleagues in the financial industry who commented. The lack of any response from the FSA on the grounds that its not the FSA's job, or from the Treasury, is disconcerting. Treasury is said to have not said a word, when RBS hired a head trader for a rumored 7 million pounds. All this coming on the heels of the RBS and Lloyds debacle, makes the Labor government open to attack from the Conservatives under Osborne and Cameron. and from Mervyn King of the Bank of England. They have expressed strong disapproval of the busines as usual attitude of bankers.

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395 Chinese companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzen stock exchanges expect to show losses for 2018.- the largest since 2009. Combined losses could total $44 billion.

Takeovers have hurt companies as they have to write down assets in the new slower economy, as for stockpiled goods or acquired businesses. Declining revenues and higher costs, plus the slowdown from trade tensions are hitting these companies.

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A general strike in Argentina in Nov. 2012 to protest rising inflation, estimated at 25%, and demands for a reduction in federal taxes for workers. The economy has deteriorated since the election of Christina Kirchner as president in 2011. Kirchner also has a fallout with the major unions.

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Andy Stern, head of the Service Employees International Union, in an interview with WSJ's Matthew Kaminski. Membership at the SEIU has doubled to 2 million while other unions have gone into steady decline. In 2005, Stern took the SEIU out of the AFL-CIO preferring grassroots organization over political emphasis and emphasizing the shift to a service and global economy. He sees a new situation from the one in 1993, as the issues facing the country have changed. He lists the income inequality and stagnation of wages. He prefers the European model. Better a little more unemployment as Western Europe has done, but a lot more equality, says Stern. And as the ranks of the uninsured swell with the half a million laid off workers in November in the USA reported by the Labor Department, the first priority for the union is universal health care. With donations of $85 million from the SEIU being the largest of the total union donations of $450 million for this years elecion campaigns, the SEIU hopes to hold the new administration accountable....

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This article in the Economist magazine says Brazil's new president Michel Temer, once impeachment proceedings lead to the resignation of Dilma Rousseff, is only slightly less popular than her. Polls show 58% of Brazilians say Temer should be impeached close to the 61% for Rousseff, and his party is also affected by the Petrobras corruption scandal. Brazil's large trade unions supporting the Worker's Party of Rousseff see it as a "coup" or "golpe" and promise strikes, combined with large street protests, this comes as the country faces a second year of falling GDP at 3.8% according to the IMF. Brazil has a budget deficit of 10.8% and needs changes in public spending, including pension reforms, which are unlikely under Temer or his party the PMDB, or under the PMDB's Mr. Cunha. Some experts see the change in Brazil as part of a broader shift in Latin America, that happened in Argentina recently with the election of Mauricio Macri as president, towards governments that move to the centre in politics and reduce state intervention in the economy to stimulate growth. This is unlikely to happen in the short run, with society deeply divided and the area in front of the Brazilian Congress cordoned off to separate the opposing factions and rallies of political supporters....