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In a piece of good news in the reopening U.S. job losses declined in May sharply to match levels seen before the coronavirus. In May 1.8 million workers were laid off from jobs, according to the Labor Department. This is down significantly from 7.7 million in April and 11.5 million in March. May job losses were in line with January and February job losses before the pandemic.

There were 5.4 million job openings in May also a good recovery sign. There are still 21 million Americans shown as unemployed in May. Overall U.S. job gains were 7.5 million jobs added in May and June, after 22.2 million jobs lost in March and April.

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How 13% unemployment is affecting Lawrence, Massachusetts, with a heavy Latino population, heavier concentration of foreclosures and poorly managed finances, and high rate of unemployment that affects those with high school diplomas, and younger people. Unemployment nationwide is 7.3% among whites and 10.9% among Latinos. And places like Lawrence have a young and undereducated population, with the unemployment rate for teenagers at 21.6% and for those without a highschool diploma at 12.6%. Surprising as it may sound the town was going through a revival before this happened suddenly without warning. It was a fading industrial city 25 miles northwest of Boston. A new $110 million high school, three new grade schools, and a renovated city hall. And a developer refurbished several abandoned mills along the Merricmack River, and leased out 1.4 million square feet to some 200 companies employing 2000 workers.

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The first presidential debate in Denver, Oct 3, 2012. For the first time Romney came out as a recent Republican governor of Massachusetts, the most liberal leaning state in the U.S. For a reason that remains a mystery, except that Romney had to shore up support with the conservative base of the Republican party, Romney did not aggressively adopt positions that would appeal to the vast majority of Americans- from people on foodstamps which he said in this debate had increased by millions under the Obama administration, working class Americans, ordinary Americans about to lose insurance with higher premium costs from the unending increase in the cost of healthcare, seniors on Social Security, workers insecure or losing jobs as the economy fails to recover, and young people who cannot find work. As governor of Massachusetts Romney had to be able to address the needs of different income groups, the middle class and working Americans, and his own father who is his role model was a governor of Michigan, a liberal leaning midwestern state with the largest number of autoworkers in the U.S. He asked Obama directly how he could have focussed on Obama care and passed it without a single Republican vote when 23 million Americans were out of work and the first priority should have been high unemployment. Obama responded by saying he would defend the middle class but did not say what he would do in the next 4 years that was different from the economic policies between 2004-2008. Romney made clear that he was not going to reduce taxes if it would increase the deficit even though Obama said Romney planned to increase taxes by $5 trillion and worsen the deficit. At one point Romney said looking at Obama that he could own a house, a plane, but could not own the facts....

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Serge Galam says in this NYT piece that abstention can affect the election in France. He says abstention from the far left voters is likely to favor Marie Le Pen. He says an overall abstention rate of 25% shown in polls can make it possible to have an uncertain result, and that Le Pen may need much less than 50% of the vote if abstentions are high. If 95% of Le Pen voters turn out and less than 61% of Macron voters turn out there is an opening for Le Pen, says Galam.

Another way of looking at this is the disaffection of the electorate with parties in France, with a high abstention vote even if Macron wins, especially on the far left.

 

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The Greens made speed limits on the autobahn a key plank in their program. The Social Democrats SPD party also agrees. The new proposed speed limit is 131 kms per hour or 81 mph. 
In 1952 speed limits were lifted on the autobahn in a reaction to the strict limits imposed in the Nazi period, and a sense of freedom in putting the past behind on the road.

The Greens party estimated 1.9 million less emissions of CO2 from the speed limit. The auto industry including Audi VW have not supported this change. Auto fatalities are 23 per 1000 kms of motorway in France compared to 30 in Germany. In sections of autobahn where there are speed limits in Germany the fatalities have dropped sharply. About 77% of Germans stay within the 81 mph speed limit which today is advised but not mandated.

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Like the rest of the restaurant industry British pubs are affected by staffing shortages, inflation, higher energy bills, and supply chain problems. The UK lost around 3250 pubs and bars between March 2020 and September of this year. During lockdowns most were closed, as they reopen they face higher costs and are struggling to survive. New hires that earned 27,000 pounds now are offered 32,000 pounds, with few applications as people look for better work and working conditions than offered in the restaurant industry.

Fewer people are going to pubs for lunch as they work from home more. Older people are staying at home from virus related hesitancy. Pubs are passing on price increases of food of 20%. Once seen as part of Britain's cultural fabric this also is changing as people look for other sensible options.

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A fascinating look in DW.com at pictures of an iceberg 158 kilometres long and 48 kilometres wide, on its way to hit the British territory of South Georgia in the South Atlantic. The island of South Georgia is known for large populations of penguins and seals, albatrosses, and humpback as well as blue whales. Prior to its splitting up the iceberg was even larger about the size of Luxembourg. The iceberg is a few hundred metres thick. The iceberg has already travelled for 1600 kilometres, and will reach South Georgia in 10-20 days.

Antarctica is the most southern region in the world, with 99% covered with ice some 5000 metres thick, 1.3 times size of Europe. Lowest temperature at -99 degrees centigrade, windspeeds can reach 155 mph. On it there are 4000 scientists in summer on research stations of 30 countries.

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Oil prices dropped below zero for West Texas Intermediate WTI to be delivered in May ended on Monday at negative $37.63. For oil delivered in June it comes back to positive at $21, and at $32 in November.

What this reflects is that though oil supplies are being cut- including large cuts from market supply and demand forces in the U.S. -this is not reflected in the price today. Producers in Texas and Canada are not able to close wells fast enough so that suppliers are "hitting tank tops" and can't find places to store the oil. As a result the average day rate for VLCC, Very Large Crude Carriers ships which can store 2 millon barrels are up from $29,000 a day to $100,000. This is threefold and spot charter rates are six fold.

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In some countries such as Tanzania and Chad the vaccination drives have not even begun says this report in the DW.com. A new surge now underway in Africa as cases increase by 30% in June comes at abad time with African vaccination drives stalled. Only 31 million doses adminstered in Africa for a population of 1 billion people. Less than 1% of world vaccine supplies are going to poor countries in Africa and Latin America.

Vaccine companies chose to sell their vaccines to the highest bidders, putting Covax  behind. Aims of Covax are also coming down and watered down to vaccinating 20% or 30% of the population in poor countries, says this report in DW.com.

This means new variants could develop and move back to Asia and Europe, the US in 2022. It means the coronavirus could affect African economies in 2022 and beyond.

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Just five prime ministers have remained in office for more than 5 years in Japan since 1945. Prime minister Yoshihide Suga's popularity dropped to 26% from high sixties since September 16 of last year. Five candidates are trying to lead the LDP party. Another period of uncertain revolving door politics appears to be the prospect. This would mean a weak effort in vaccinations and in tackling the coronavirus pandemic. 

Just as in Europe and the US, in Japan there are effects of the pandemic, economic downturn, widening social disparity, plus a contracting population. Yukio Hatoyama, Yoshhide Suga, and Shinzo Abe in his first term served for short periods of one year or less since 2012. There is a perceived need for the older leaders to retire from politics and let a younger generation tackle the problems the country faces as in Europe.

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Grades 1 through 9 in China are not for profit and China's education system is highly important and sensitive for Beijing. Particularly at this time with different ideas in Hong Kong compared to adjoining Shenzen. Uptil now private compnies were allowed to effectively control some schools with contractual agreements and funnel out money through service fees. This practice is now halted by tighter restrictions. Draft legislation is prepared and expected to be finalized this year. 

Earlier 25 companies in the education sector brought $3.8 billion of private capital through IPO's in Hong Kong and the U.S., according to Dealogic. These education companies are seeing shares drop by a half in 2018-2019, as China moves to protect its basic education from what may be seen as wayward ideas and thinking. More so today after the events at Hong Kong schools and universities.

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A major problem for getting grain out of Ukraine by truck and rail is the EU bureaucratic paperwork, says this BBC report. For truck routes long waits at the border are common and queues can stretch as long as  25 kilometres or 16 miles. By rail the Ukraine rail system is wider than the EU's so that the grain has to be transferred for rail on the border.This can take as much as 30 days or 16 days. This is limiting the shipments say Ukraine farmers and most of it is at this time corn shipments.

For years Ukraine farmers were used to sending grain out through the port of Odessa on the Black Sea. This is now closed till negotiations lead to its opening or EU and the US finds some other way to do it.

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Declan Walsh in another exceptional piece on the ground at customs offices in Torkham, Afghanistan, near the Khyber Pass bordering Pakistan in the southeast. He describes a network of corrupt officials that extends from border customs offices all the way to the central government in Kabul. It is so widespread that one minor customs official at the border paid $10,000 for a customs position where the salary is $150 a month, but money gained through unofficial payments and bribes is $4000 a month. At every step from the guard opening the gate for a truck to the border customs official, to the provincial department officials, to officials in the capital Kabul, there are payments involved for every truck entering Afghanistan. Upto two thirds of customs revenue is lost, and the $500 million of customs revenues collected amounts to 26% of the governments tax revenues.

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In this exceptional piece Galston says institutions such as Johns Hopkins University in the Baltimore area have to do more to integrate their activities with the city in the way Carnegie Melon University and other institutions helped revive Pittsburgh. Pittsbugh suffered a hollowing out of manufacturing with foreign competition, population decline and unemployment reaching 17%. It suffered economic decline in a way that happened in Detroit over the last decade. A concerted effort by the city's political, economic and nonprofit leaders is credited with making Pittsburgh one of the most livable cities, and reviving industry around new innovation. The unemployment rate in Pittsburgh is 5.4%. Galston acknowledges that Baltimore is 63% black, and Pittsburgh 26%, yet race is not the only factor, and Galston points out the need for Baltimore to work diligently to build on its educational and medical technology assets to build a new future for the city.

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The U.S. Federal Reserve, America's central bank, is staying away from riskier investments, junk bonds, leveraged loans, non government backed mortgage bonds, as it intervenes to support U.S. capital markets. On March 23 the Fed said it would launch facilities to buy not just Treasurys but also corporate bonds carrying investment grade ratings. Companies from Nike to Pfizer were able to issue $177 billion of invesrment grade bonds, according to Dealogic. As a result the corporate bond market is stabilizing. The Fed is not supposed to take credit risk, and just as the government intervention with aid to business has focused on keeping down unemployment, the Fed focus is on helping the parts of the market that are not leveraged, to help companies that were doing fine before the pandemic hit. As the president says repeatedly this pandemic was not their fault.

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The Pirate Party, a party of digital activists favoring more transparency and sharing of information online has about 10% of voter support according to recent polls. The Pirate party concept started first in Sweden, but it is in Germany where it has gained political support. This party was founded in 2006 in an underground Berlin nightspot C-Base, where many digital activists gathered. In Sept. 2011, the German Pirate Party gained 9% of the vote, 15 of 249 seats in the Berlin state elections. This was repeated in the Saarland state elections, and now is likely to happen in elections in Schleswig-Holstein and North Rhine-Westphalia. These votes are coming at the expense of the Free Democrats and the Greens. The Free Democrats are hurt badly, and may not make the 5% of votes needed to win seats in North Rhine-Westphalia. The Greens are seen as part of the establishment, giving the Pirate party support from people thinking outside of the establishment. The polls show the Christian Democrats having voter support of 35%, Social Democrats 27%, Left 7%, Greens 14%, Free Democrats 3%....

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WSJ Explained looks at the House Speaker's election on Friday Jan 3, 2024. If one Republican vote joins Rep. Massie of Kentucky Mike Johnson cannot be reelected says WSJ. In that event Congress cannot ratify the election of DJT or Vance as president and vice president. On Jan 20 2025 Senate president Chuck Grassley would be made president of the US in such a situation.

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Russia needs to find a solution to end the Ukraine war in coming months to protect it's economy, says Le Monde. After 3 years of war a sudden deterioration is apparent. The central bank has raised rates to 21% to tackle rising inflation of 9%.. This is seen as an alarming signal. Bank rates are close to 30% a situation that is not sustainable for long. 

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Tim Cook and 25 years of shipping overseas America's industrial base 2000-2025. A pivotal moment arrives in May 2025 when for the second time after 2016 Cook fails to understand that America's industrial base, it's manufacturing knowhow, is one of the pillars of the free world without which America can no longer lead the Free World as we know it.

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Michigan governor Whitmer at Michigan's Selfridge Air Force Base with DJT on April 29, 2025. Selfridge base will be continued with 15 new fighter jets to replace old jets. DJT says Whitmer successfully lobbied for the base in the White House. Whitmer works with DJT on issues that relate to tariffs, the auto industry in Michigan, defense, and restoring the Nation's industrial base.

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Spain's central bank was lauded for macroprudential supervision before the housing bubble burst. Will China's central bank and financial authorites which have managed the housing bubble upto this point face similiar problems? Can China be the sole exception even as housing bubbles burst with wide repercussions in the U.S., UK and Spain? Nicholas Lardy, of the Peterson Institute of international Economics, says urban housing stock makes up 41% of Chinese household wealth in 2011. The same figure for the U.S. is 26%. Chinese buyers invest in homes because low interest rates on savings accounts cannot keep up with inflation. Real estate investment was 13% of GDP in 2011. Home ownership is a recent development in China, only since 1990, Chinese have never experienced large price declines. Household debt as a percentage of disposable income has increased significantly in recent years, up to 53.6% in 2011 from 31.3% in 2008, according to Lardy.

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Al Maktoum is prime minister of Dubai. He points out some important facts about the Arab world. About half of the 300 million people in the Arab world are under the age of 25. Unemploment is very high among these 150 million Arab youth. About 50% of the jobless are youth, according to the prime minister. About 65 million of the Arabs are illiterate, and 10 million children under the age of 25 are not enrolled in any school. He points out that with so little education, the Arab youth are especially vulnerable to propaganda that creates extremism and is hostile to the west and the USA. One of his key points is that the Arab world is the most militarized place in the world, and spending on conflicts in the Middle East in the last 60 years is about $3 trillion. And in the last 15 years he says the spending on education which is 20% of what the world's 30 wealthiest countries spend, has dropped to 10% of that amount. And very little is being done to educate girls and give them opportunities. As a result of these convictions, Al Maktoum, who is also the ruler of Dubai and from the royal family, has committed about $3 billion to various initiatives to provide schooling to children, especially girls, and education for young people. This makes him one of the more enlightened leaders in the region pushing for new directions. This also reveals the critical weakness among the Arab peoples and why they tend to be so radicalized. Improvements in education and more opportunities for jobless youth, and creating a peaceful region -with the US and the EU countries committing to policies that lead to much diminished military sales to Mideast countries and reducing hostilities in the region -would do more to reduce anti-American sentiment in the region and improve US security than any other policy actions. As Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan, and the Muslims of India share the same characteristics as the Arab peoples, and the same cultures, the same is true of this region, actually more so. Education has been even worse neglected in the South Asian Muslim region than among the Arabs. It is the key to peace, does more than troops to ensure the peace. The need is for more schools to be built and run in the region, for essential services like healthcare and development, and financing of job creating industries. ...

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Ford plans to reduce the weight of its F-150 pickup truck by about 700 pounds, a 15% reduction in weight, by switching parts of the body from steel to aluminium. The new F-150 pickup truck is designed to be introduced in 2014 and capable of meeting new fuel efficiency standards through 2020. This would enable a 25% increase in fuel efficiency and help meet the Obama administration fuel efficiency standards of 2011, which require the U.S. vehicle fleet to average 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025.

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Krugman says that this may be the third time that Obama and Geithner are trying to find ways to let the market and banks come up with a value for these toxic assets and take them off the books of the troubled banks. Each time there is he says new bells and whistles but its essentially doing what the Paulson plans were doing, and are a rehash of the Paulson plan. Now in the latest version on March 23 weithner proposed a complicated scheme in which the government would lend money to private investors, who would then use the money to buy the toxic assets. Krugman's view is that it wil not work. The main idea says Krugman behind all these plans is that the toxic assets are worth much more than anyone is willing to pay now because of the lack of confidence and illiquid markets. If this could be changed then they would be assigned amuch higher value and many of the banks would not be in trouble. The trouble with this approach is that with each passing month things are getting worse, a loss of 600,000 jobs a month, and with more foreclosures and higher unemployment, housing prices are probably going to look alot worse a few months from now. Which essentially means that mortgage related securities will remain discounted by alarge number regardlesss of any number of Paulson type or Geithner type plans to wish the contrary. And in the process valuable time is lost. ...