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US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says this is not chaos in tariff policy because you don't change 70 years of policy overnight. He says China's is highest because it has the highest trade deficit, then EU, Japan, South Korea at 15% because of the smaller deficits with these nations, Vietnam because it is used  by China to send products to the US, India because of geopolitical reasons buying Russian oil. See Dasha Burns, Politico White House Bureau Chief's  interview with USTR Jamieson Greer.  He says about India- Jamieson USTR calls India "an outlier" and says "I'm confident we will get a deal with India in the near future." India he says has largely corrected its imports of Russian oil and negotiations are underway for a deal.  ON USMCA Greer says of the $31 trillion in trade with Canada and Mexico $29 trillion is us right. trade between Canda and Mexico is small. So he says it makes sense to negotiate separately with Canada and separately with Mexico. This suggests that there doesnt need to be a USMCA- separate deals are just fine says Greer. Mexico has gained much in automobiles under USMCA- US wants to make more in the US including auto parts which it can do by negotiating this with Mexico. It does not make a ton of economic sense to marry the three economies together, says Greer, as the import export profiles, lab,or situations are all different. Are Tariffs good for the economy and do they lead to higher prices? Greer says inflation was down in the first DJT term in trade with China and tariffs. Greer says there is never a 1 to 1 with tariffs. It tariffs become a kind of leveage in getting agreements. That is the style of these tariffs. You tell Ecuador or Brazil we don't make these here so there will be no tariffs on bananas and on coffee. Says Greer- we have seen inflation in check, imported goods relatively low priced. We have seen that we can have growth and higher wages with tariffs at the same time. The growth in 2025 third quarter at 3.8% annual growth, and Atlanta Fed predicting 4.2% growth in 2026. And tariff money can be used for paying down the debt and financing America's reindustrialization, Greer says members of Congress are asking about this.When a new administration comes tariffs will still be part of the playbook. ...

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A difference between QE in the U.S. and Japan with ECB action for QE is that the Fed in the U.S. is able to buy U.S. Treasury bonds. To accomplish this the ECB has to buy the sovereign bonds of all the countries in the eurozone. This is not equally as effective to stimulate the economy as the interest rates in Germany are quite low, and the rates low in Italy and France.

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Second hald profits will get hammered by inflation and the economy will be getting much worse with housing deteriorating and the credit crunch only getting worse. Exports the one bright spot also is on the decline as manufacturing output in the EU and Japan declined in the second quarter and growth in emerging markets including India is cooling. So the contribution of 1 to 1.5 percentage points from overseas trade is declining.

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This report in the WSJ  shows that president Xi is pulling back from his signature economic policy to reduce wide gaps in wealth and opportunities in China. In 2021 this was a policy that Xi pushed to reduce inequalities that have built up over decades of hypergrowth. One tenth of the population owns 68% of the wealth in China creating an highly unequal society. Concerned about the future of the Communist party as disparities kept widening and 40% of the population was left behind, Xi early on in his first and second terms made tackling corruption and inequality part of his policy.  Yet the way China's economy is structured, its dependence on the construction industry for growth, and on local governments for investment, it is easier to tackle infrastructure projects than address widening gaps in society. Xi's efforts have led to slowdown in growth to 5% or less. With the US and Europe moving to shorter supply chains and moving supply chains to less integration with China, slowing growth to less than 4-5% presents a major challenge for China. Leading to a pull back from the Common Prosperity policies that Xi initiated and which are part of Communist party policy in its early period after 1949. A major problem for China says WSJ is that social security contributions revenue is 6.5% of GDP compared to 9% for advanced countries in the OECD, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Personal income taxes are 1.2% of GDP compared to 10% in UK and US. This prevents the better funding of programs for maintaining a better safety net and social support for the less well off in society. The pandemic followed by Ukraine war have added new urgency to the acceleration of the effort to build new supply chains, leading to new manufacturing innovation and manufacturing leadership in the US and European Union, and in countries such as Japan, India, and other parts of Asia. This too has made the goals of reducing inequalities and addressing the wide disparities in Chinese society more difficult with sharply slowing growth in China. This was also the experience of Japan and South Korea with decades of fast growth followed by sharp slowdown with unanticipated problems. ...

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Indian oil minister Hardeep Singh Puri says India has diversified its sourcing of oil supplies to avoid dependence on the Straits of Hormuz. It has weeks of reserves. Saudis have 5 million barrel a day pipeline to bypass Hormuz waterway and UAE 1.5 million barrel a day pipeline to bypass Hormuz waterway, so that 6.5 million barrels a day could be added to meet Asian oil demand, in addition to convoys escorted by US warships  in Hormuz waterway to meet demand from China, India and Japan. This would mean China is itself dependent on American seapower to maintain it's oil supplies, a third of which come through the Hormuz waterway and keep important sealanes of navigation open. China, India, Japan, and other World are critical for the world economy manufacturing sector and comprise 3.5  billion or about half of the world's population. In addition Latin America and Africa are dependent on oil supplies and prices.  New pipelines, renewable energy, will become more important in the years ahead, and figure more in planner's minds after this Hormuz episode. ...

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A 6.4% gain in the Dow Jones Industrial Average for the 1st quarter of 2011. This is the largest percentage gain since 1999. This gain happened despite the overseas problems of nuclear disaster in Japan and the changes in the Middle East. Behind it is the $600 billion round of quantitative easing by the Bernanke Federal Reserve- with the clear intention of moving the stock market upwards- as a way to keep the economy from making a downturn.

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Factors that point to deceleration, stabilization followed by reacceleration in the U.S. stock market include growth in hiring, moderate P/E ratios, a recovery in Japan after the earthquake, and stronger corporate balance sheets. Uncertainty comes in three areas, a crisis in Greece or Portugal, slowing growth in China with rising inflation, and a sharp slowdown in U.S. growth after the end of the Fed's monetary easing. Current estimates are for 2.9% growth in the U.S. economy for 2011.

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Japan's energy efficient industry is a role model for the western world and for India and China. For years Japan has had a national consensus on consuming less energy an industry has focused on developing energy efficent technologies and investing in it even when oil prices were low. Japan wants to now contribute to the world in this area at the G8 summit on the island of Hokkaido. According to the International Energy Agency in Paris, Japan consumes half as much energy per dollar worth of economic activity as the European Union or the United States, and one-eighth as much as India or China in 2005. According to the Japanese Economic Ministry data corporate Japan has kept its energy consumption annually at a billion barrels of oil since the early 1970's even as the country's economy doubled in size during the 1970's and 1980's. The Japanese steel industry invested $45 billion dollars between 1972 to 2006 in developing energy saving technologies, according to the Japan Iron and Steel Federation. By capturing heat and gases that go into waste JFE Steel at its Keihin mill on Tokyo Bay uses it to power generators that produce 90% of the plant's electricity. The Japanese government is now pushing an initiative that sets Japan's level of energy conservation as targets of global industries. For instance the group leader of JFE's climate change policy group says that by adopting Japanese conservation technologies the global steel industry could reduce carbon emissions by 300 million tons a year. The sector approach advocated by Japan means setting the same numerical goals for all companies in an industry, regardless of location. At next week's summit meeting Japan willl back an initiative that sets its conservation induced energy levels as the new standards for global industries. This will also promote the sale and use of Japanese energy saving technologies around the world....

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Paul Krugman's response to Arthur Laffer's recent article warning of the dangers of inflation and rising interest rates, as the monetary base is rapidly expanded by the Fed. Krugman points out that there is one thing Laffer omitted to mention. This is the third time in history that a major economy is facing a liquidity trap, where interest rate cuts have reached their limit, and policymakers and the Fed have to use unconventional measures to keep the economy from a steep descent. Krugman says a rising monetary base isn't inflationary when the economy is in a liquidity trap . He cites facts that the monetary base of the USA doubled between 1929 and 1939, but prices fell 19%. Japan's monetary base rose 85% between 1997 and 2003 but deflation continued in Japan. To reverse course now would repeat the mistakes of that period. And he says the US was experiencing growth in 1937 and 1996, when policy makers reversed course pushing the economy back into a descent, whereas today the US is facing negative growth. ...

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WSJ's Andrew Restuccia and Michelle Hackman look at another deportation of about 1 million people of Mexican descent in 1954 under the Eisenhower administration. It looks at the human toll. Many of the people were brought in to tackle the shortage of men to do farm work and harvest crops during the war period 1941-1945.   The alternative proposed by Biden and senior Republican senators McConnell and Lankford and supported by most senior Republicans is the tough immigration legislation drafted by Lankford that president Harris has pledged to sign. In 1954 the US economy was a small fraction of what it is today and struggling from the aftermath of the world war and the Korean War. The US economy would suffer shortages of manpower in construction and farm work that would reduce economic growth by about 1%, from the effects of a 1954 type plan and from the distraction for American focus on chips, science, and manufacturing that is needed to compete in a new world of India, China in addition to Japanese EU competition. States such as Kansas in the midwest feel this shortage, and in the Carolinas in the south, Red states and blue face shortages. Kansas is actively seeking new legal immigrants and welcoming them as shown in the WSJ. This is a different country than 1954 and this must be recognized or we will fall behind China, Japan and India. Cultural literacy is world knowledge and was proposed before by the Exxon Foundation and E. D. Hirsch in 1988. This needs to be revived so that children like Harris who know enough about American history, language and culture to be productive American citizens- as they learn in school and through interaction with fellow citizens in the neighborhood and libraries- can become the norm. There is no reason this cannot be done effectively with the resources committed to this from the federal and state governments in tens of billions of dollars, including to the library system, community colleges, community civic education centers, and to literacy and world knowledge sites such as Lyrarc.com, Wikipedia and Britannica.com. ...

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The IMF in its 2012-2013 Global Economic Outlook Report presented at its annual meeting in October 2012 estimates global economic growth of 3.3% in 2012 and 3.6% in 2013. This is a drop of 0.2% for 2012 and 0.3% for 2013 from its earlier forecast in July 2012. Under the IMF definition the global economy GDP does not have to decline for a recession. Advanced economies growth estimate is 1.3% in 2012 and 1.5% in 2013. Emerging market economies growth estimate is of 5.3% in 2012 and improving to 5.6% in 2013. Specifically for the eurozone growth estimate is decline of 0.4% in 2012 and 0.2% growth in 2013. U.S. growth is estimated at 2.2% for 2012. China's growth rate is estimated at 7.8% in 2012 with a growth uptick to 8.2% in 2013 as a much smaller stimulus than the one in 2009 kicks in. This will help commodity exporters like Brazil, Australia, and Canada. Two surprises are Brazil's growth with a significant improvement to 4% in 2013 from 1.5% in 2012 because of sharp interest rate cuts and improving demand from China. The other is India which is expected to show a significant slowdown with a growth estimate of 4.9% as the government faces what the Kelkar committee report calls "a perfect storm" of a large current account deficit and a budget deficit, and failure to attract foreign investment. Growth in Japan is expected to slow to 1.2% in 2013 from 2.2% in 2012 as the government imposes a sales tax increase to reduce its deficit. ...

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Negotiations between Japan and China before the APEC summit in Beijing, Nov. 2014, lead to an agreement that does not explicitly state Japan's sovereignty over the Senkaku islands, but acknowledges the current position in which the islands have remained in Japanese control since 1880. It lets both sides agree to disagree so that trade and diplomatic ties can be improved. China's economy has taken a hit from a 50% decline in Japanese foreign investment in 2014, just as the economy is slowing for other reasons. Both leaders can show the international community they have moderated their positions. Prime minister Abe also can show his foreign and domestic policies are working as his high poll ratings have declined in recent months.

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The new government of prime minister Naoto Kan in Japan has tapped 2 business executives for posts as Ambassador to Greece and Ambassador to China. A former top executive at Nomura Securities heads for Greece, and former CEO of Itochu Corporation heads for Beijing. It is an effort to stay on top of changes in the global economy with experienced businessmen. Kan's idea is to harness the needs of Asian countries, finding solutions to problems, to raise the Japanese growth rate.

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The South China Morning Post provides this view of China on the day of the 70th anniversary of the Communist Party of China, on the long road from the founding of the government in 1949 under Mao, the Cultural Revolution, and the shift to a state sponsored market economy under premier Deng in the 1980's.  From being at early stages of industrialization to a fully developed modern and industrialized country over three decades.  The challenges China faces are whether its growth will slow with a high debt situation, trade war with the U.S., aging population and the housing bubble that has created problems in Hong Kong. This could lead to a situation where its per capita income stays in the middle range at around $12,000 per capita, referred to as a middle income economy by the World Bank. Some experts believe that the factors that propelled China since 1990- a youthful labor force, globalization reducing tariffs and benefitting from entry into WTO, easy access to western technology, land sales for local governments to finance industrial development, rapid urbanization, and infrastructure investment in electricity rail and highways, are now reaching their limits with smaller incremental steps and growth in the future. The big gains made in the last three decades could be limited by other factors also such as the high debt economy, build up of industrial overcapacity, limited domestic consumption to take the place of exports facing high tariffs. Countries normally face some slowdown in such situation after a period of rapid growth, Japan and South Korea being recent examples. During the transition period to a new kind of economy from the manufacturing export push Asian model many unseen social and other problems emerge. The situation in Hong Kong shows how the housing bubble can also lead to problems that require resources and attention.  There are other social problems that continue to remain hidden. It does not take long for hidden problems to emerge as the situation in Brazil for lack of sanitation and epidemic prevention shows. In China the cost of too rapid development has led to pollution of rivers and land that will need to be cleaned up. The effect of contamination of food supply is an ever present risk with the contamination of land and water. Little attention is paid to prevalence of smoking and its damaging effects on health. The one child policy also brings with it cultural issues of how a whole new generation of children without siblings. Many other social problems that affect the quality of life become evident as growth slows and addressing these problems can actually benefit the country and its people. ...

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This Economist article looks at India-China relations and the Wuhan Summit between prime minister Modi and president Xi Jinping. It sees India's reluctance to follow a containment strategy in an historical light from the period in which India followed a non-alignment policy in the early post independence period under prime minister Nehru. During the period of the Eisenhower administration with Secretary of State John Foster Dulles India adhered to a strict nonalignment policy avoiding choosing sides in the Cold War. As a result U.S. policy tilted towards Pakistan during the Eisenhower administration. A balance was restored under president Kennedy, with Adlai Stevenson a close friend of India.  The short Sino-Indian war of 1962 led to a situation in which the U.S. backed India and improvement of relations. A semblance of non-alignment in foreign relations continued under Nehru's daughter Indira Gandhi. By 1990 with the opening of the Indian economy to foreign investment, the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the integration of China into the global economy, a new period of good bilateral relations with the U.S. and Europe was maintained. In 2017 the potential for a conflict in Doklam, Bhutan revived fears from 1962 in India. In 2018 After the U.S. administration of Donald Trump and Trade Representative Lighthizer imposed trade tariffs on China and restrictions on export of advanced technologies China pursued a policy of conciliatory relations with India. China's relations also improved with Japan and South Korea as the U.S. policy was unanticipated and seen as a significant change that would seriously affect China's economy. India's response was to pursue a policy of good relations with China and the U.S., even as the economies of the U.S. and India were drawn closer in India's pursuit of modernization.  ...

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It is not a story that most people grasp or understand- the long term effects of the US immigration surge of 2023 and its source mostly from Venezuela. The  US Congressional Budget Office says labor force in 2033 ten years from now will be larger by 5.2 million people and younger as a result of the immigration surge in 2023 from about 1 million immigrants each year in the 2010's to 3.3 million. About 2.5 million crossed the southwestern border in 2023. Much of it the result of the collapse of the Venezuelan economy and its middle and upper classes leaving the country. This was worsened by the US sanctions on the Maduro government including under president Trump, say experts in an adjoining NYT article on the 7 million people who left Venezuela to go to Colombia, Peru, Ecuador and Chile since 2012, then making their way up the Darien Gap to the US. Something that could have happened under a Republican president if the US Congress could not reach bipartisan agreement on correcting asylum and parole policy. As a result of this surge US Gross Domestic Product  in 2033 will be 3% larger. When the large Asian economies are seeing a aging workforce, Japan for the last decade and China now following Japan, the US labor force will be younger than it would be without this unusual surge in immigration of the last 2 years. The federal deficit will be smaller at 6.4% instead of 7.3% in 2033 as immigrants will pay taxes on income. Another aspect of this larger infusion of immigrants is that after the pandemic shut down immigration entirely there were severe shortages in the hospitality and restaurant, construction, healthcare industries. And with the trillions of dollars in investment that the Biden administration is making with more factories - this will absorb most of the immigrant surge by 2033. With some positive effects in the competition with rising Asian economies China and India. Particularly consider with the younger demographic India of 1.4 billion people. It will mean more factories can be built in the US and there will be workers for these factories in the US at wages that keep the US economy competitive years from now in 2033. This is a sobering aspect of the current situation viewed from what will be seen by America's younger generation. And under the bipartisan compromise in Congress correcting asylum and parole policy that was shut down by the former president, Republican senators understood very well that the immigration surge of 2023 would have some constructive effects for the long term, while its effects on the short term would be mitigated by Biden's commitment to close the border in 2024. This did not happen, yet the future for America's younger generation is bright under the Biden plan for massive investment in manufacturing and jobs in the US, and with the millions of immigrants needed to fill the jobs that investment will create by 2033. It will make America with a younger work force than Europe or China, only India having a younger workforce in 2033. ...

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Karishma Vaswani of the BBC points out that most of China's economic growth came with the shift to a market economy made by Deng Xiaoping in 1979, when he announced that China would follow a program of "socialism with Chinese characteristics." By comparison the 19th Party Congress is more about stabilization, preserving the gains made so far after Deng's opening up of the economy to foreign investment and technological collaboration. The placing of thought of Xi Jinping into the Chinese Constitution is more about setting a path of stable direction by the Communist Party than of major changes. The gains in the economy have come with some costs that will have to be addressed by an aging society. Particularly the problems of air and water pollution that other economies in Asia and Latin America following their own development paths would now strive to avoid. An anti-corruption drive was part of this effort for stable direction as the problems of debt to GDP ratio of close to 270% with an aging society remain to be tackled. There is still a large gap between the upper middle class and the rest of China as a result of the rapid growth. In this sense Jinping's effort at the 19th Party Congress is more about restoring the credibility of the Chinese Communist Party as China tackles the next stage of growth needed to catch up with Japan or South Korea. ...

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Japan's regulatory structure for the nuclear power industry is weak because of the dual role played by the regulator- Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. It regulates the nuclear power industry, and also promotes Japanese nuclear technology in Japan and overseas. The tasks are separated in the U.S. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission supervises nuclear plants in the U.S. It is independent of the Department of Energy which does research and promotes nuclear power. An earlier effort to correct this dual role arrangement in Japan failed, when an independent Nuclear Safety Commission was created under the cabinet. This body was never given the authority to inspect companies and mandate changes. A body that supports the commission has 4000 scientists and staff. It does research in nuclear technologies, but it has ended up becoming nothing more than a think tank, in the words of a former commission deputy chairman. What makes this situation worse, is the practice of amakudari, or "descent from heaven," a practice in Japan where senior Ministry officials retire young and take up positions in the private sector at companies like Tokyo Electric Power Company. In recent years most of the retired officials have taken positions in the energy sector. In fact Japan's Bar association investigated problems after a 2007 earthquake that shutdown a TEPCO nuclear plant. It recommended an independent regulator. The Democratic Party of Japan supported this idea before taking power in 2009. ...

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This report in The Guardian shows that ChatGPT is nothing new. The first version of this kind of generative AI was developed in 1966 at MIT by a computer scientist Weizenbaum, who called it Eliza. The buzz around it like that around ChatGPT was that it was thinking and acting on its own, the way humans like to think it did, but in fact Weizenbaum showed that it was simply code written to take what was given to the computer as input and spitting it out in a different way that made it look that it was acting on its own, when it clearly was nothing but parroting it out like a parrot. The issue of turning our world over to robots based on AI is controversial and even dangerous. A Japanese futuristic movie shows how the man who has written the code for the master computer that runs everything in Japan is disillusioned about it and finds himself in a nightmare world where the machine tries to isolate and eliminate the man who created it. Machines cannot think or have emotions like humans do and it is these emotions, rethinking, that the world depends on for its survival. Can anyone say that a machine would have made the decision that Chinese president Jinping just made in January of making a complete u turn and moving away completely from lockdowns into a complete opening with a plan that appears to have worked and is reviving China's economy following the street protests by informal groups including young women? ...

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Research shows that some countries will benefit more than others through climate change action for net zero emissions by 2050. India, Argentina, Britain and European Union, Japan and South Korea will be able to reduce imports of fossil fuels and invest in infrastructure, renewable energy, and create jobs in new sectors. Countries that depend on fossil fuel exports Australia, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Gulf states, will see much of their coal, oil and natural gas assets, left in the ground. The US and Canadian shale oil producers will also be affected, along with Chinese producers but with a broadly diversified economy the US and China will continue to grow. This paper with lead author from University of Exeter, in Nature, shows $11 trillion in stranded fossil fuel assets left in the ground by 2036 for major oil producing countries under the most probable scenario.  This means the transition will have to be carefully handled as some states such as Texas, Alberta will be hit hard in North America. The paper also shows that countries that are major oil and gas exporters such as Russia and Saudi Arabia will not be pioneers or push aggressively for climate change in the way the European Union, Britain, and India are doing at COP26 because of this problem of stranded fossil fuel assets left in the ground. China and the US have strong renewable energy sectors and will join the EU, Britain and India. ...

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Japanese Dads are taking on a bigger role and changing parenting. BBC Future shows this story about Japanese dads from a new generations that are taking on the joys, difficulties and responsibilities of parenting.  A new kind of superhero in Japanese manga comics is Ikumen, a Japanese term (from ikuji for childcare) for young dads actively spending time with their children compared to an earlier generation of fathers who spent most of their time at work, and rarely took on family responsibilities. During the sixties and seventies as Japan emerged from the wartime recovery and modernized Japanese culture defined men's role to spend most of the time at work, even getting allowance for spending from their wives who controlled the family budget.  In 2010 the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare started the Ikumen project to increase paternal involvement in child caring. This was a major cultural change and was part of the change in culture needed for the Third Arrow of Japan's Abenomics project to get women's participation up to western country levels. Today the women's participation rate in workplaces exceeds that of the U.S. Even in the 1980's men spent on average about 40 minutes with their children mostly during the family meal in the evening and even had to have their wives find their clothes. The common saying was - "jishin, kaminari, kaji, oyaji," earthquake, thunder, fire and father, remote and given respect. Women's reaction was not positive as they postponed marraige for later, then even not marrying at all for the next generation, leading to reduced childbirth rates. The Ikumen project projected fathers in a masculine role of heroes for taking on parenting, like the t-shirt logo "Strength for Society" portraying them as saving society, saving the  country. About 45% now support the idea of "men should work, women should stay at home" compared to 60% in 1992- drop of 15%. The statistics do not quite tell the story because during this period women participation in the workplace has jumped to western country levels as part of Abenomics Third Arrow to revive the economy. The problem that is still being tackled is that of bosses in the workplace who lack awareness and discourage taking paternal leave which has risen from 2% to 7% in five years 2012 to 2017. ...

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This piece in the WSJ misses a deep understanding of India just as the US media failed to understand China in the years of Japanese imperialism in Asia. India with 1.4 billion people and Indonesia with over 300 million people form 1.7 billion people moving towards modernization by 2047. Much of this will accelerate and be achieved by 2037 by which time India will have the third largest economy in the world and have one that is likely to surpass China in its dynamism and youthful energies. DJT's first responsibility was to America and the World- to bring a quick end to the war in South Asia, and the presence of nuclear weapons is a factor too important for the president to not take this responsibility seriously. DJT also made it clear that the economy is where it is all going to happen- the modernization of India and Indonesia in the way the US had helped each of these nations modernize- Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, China, and now India over 1900-2037. The people of South Asia fully support the US president in this endeavor. ...

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China imports most of Iran's oil exports about 1.8 million barrels a day which flow through the Straits of Hormuz. Iran is heavily dependent on these exports for oil revenues that support it's economy. All Asian economies are heavily dependent on the oil flowing from Saudis, UAE and Iran through the Straits.  For Iran it would mean the loss of oil revenues needed to support its economy if the Straits are shut down. Iran's central bank says it get $67 billion from oil exports 90% of it going to China alone.  82% of oil imports of Asian countries  from Saudi, UAE, Qatar and Iran sources go though the Straits.  The US is not dependent on the Straits- less than 10% of its oil. Also true of Germany. The US  would have to use air strikes to prevent any mining of the waters seaway, and China, US, Japan, India would join in combined effort to keep all sea navigation open for international shipping.  ...

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Leaders of North Korea and South Korea, Kim Jong-Un and Moon Jae-in meet on April 27, 2018, at the military demarcation line between North and South Korea.  After handshakes and Mr. Moon stepping onto North Korean soil for a few minutes, Kim Jong-Un visits Seoul for peace talks.  This is a historic moment for the two countries as this is the first time since the Korean War (1950-53) that a North Korean leader has visited the South. No peace treaty was signed after the Korean War. During the period of six decades that followed the Korean War, particularly the period after 1980, the South Korean economy recovered from the war and expanded following the Japanese export model with large conglomerates such as Samsung. The North Korean economy has struggled in the period and North Korea is one of the poorest countries isolated for most of this period like Burma from the rest of the world. The development of nuclear weapons was pursued to prevent any external threats to the government, and decades of sanctions followed with aborted efforts to denuclearize the Korean peninsula. Recent ballistic nuclear tests and the installation of a new anti missile system in South Korea led to tighter sanctions with the cooperation of China. This heightened tensions, followed by the tighter sanctions. Kim Jong Un and the government are looking for ways to win approval in the international community, and find a way out of the tight sanctions. South Korea, Japan and the U.S. government are not sure whether this will lead to any results in denuclearization. The summit with Moon will be followed by a summit between president Trump and Kim Jong Un of North Korea. If a way can be found for the North Korean government and party leaders to transition to acceptance in the international community followed by integration of the North and South's economies over an extended period, there is a possibility that denuclearization could work, because it is to maintain the current government in North Korea that nuclear development was pursued in the North. Ideological conflict is now less of a factor in the conflict between North and South Korea as it was in the early days of the Korean War with the Cold War and Communism's advances in Eastern Europe and Asia the big issue at the time. Today China itself is more of a state run economy under the Communist Party following capitalism with Chinese characteristics than the old Communist model, and ideological conflict is not an issue between the U.S. and Communist run countries. This leaves open the possibility of a solution particularly as at some point just as in the case of Vietnam and the U.S., North Korea could see its future more allied with that of South Korea than with China. That leaves an opening for a timetable of transitional actions plus effective implementation stages, with incentives for the U.S. and Japan to negotiate a settlement. ...

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The Editorial Board of The Financial Times (UK-Japan) says Germany needs leadership to fix problems, not just manage crises. The Merkel years were marked with Angela Merkel fixing the euro crisis- itself a legacy of missteps under her mentor chancellor Kohl who pushed too fast for entry into eurozone of countries such as Greece without meeting requirements. As Annalena Baerbock points out the actions taken by Merkel are still being questioned such as the austerity policies. Baerbock says in a rare interview- "The major lesson from the eurocrisis is that austerity can end up suffocating an economy, which is why fiscal reform was needed. Germany and Europe needs to become the engine room for innovation again." A fuller and more objective reassessment of Merkel policies by the German people is likely to happen after the elections. Merkel only moved away from austerity policies after the pandemic, committing to European solidarity and sharing the burden of aiding the economies of southern Europe in 2020. This happened at the end of her administration following 10 years of austerity, a period in which Germany invested little in her infrastructure or modernization. Much of the goodwill for democratic practice and forms of government among German people generated by Adenauer and Wily Brandt in the early postwar years was wasted with her migration policies which were also reversed by 2019, as Mr. Biden is doing in 2021 in the US. The potential for good with new direction of a combined Biden administration in the US and a Scholz-Baerbock  administration in Germany and Europe is immense and sorely needed. ...