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The USMCA agreement negotiated by president Trump between the U.S. Canada and Mexico that replaces NAFTA, win support from Republicans and Democrats in the U.S. Congress. Democrats pushing for Trump's impeachment have decided to still support passage of the USMCA, handing president Trump a victory, as they see it giving a positive benefit to U.S. workers.

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Latest data from the U.S. Treasury shows it has collected $63 billion in tariffs over the preceding 12 months. Even though there is no agreement on trade with China, president Trump says the U.S. is benefitting from higher tariffs by tens of billions of dollars. In May he estimated tariff revenues could reach $100 billion.This report in the WSJ says this could happen if the the new tariffs of 10% on additional $300 Chinese goods imported to U.S. goes into effect on September 1. This is likely considering that China sees this in different terms than the U.S. such as its sovereignty, whereas the U.S. sees it simply in terms of fair trade. With new elections China may be simply putting things off till the election is decided as Mr. Trump has pointed out. The tally of what the U.S. Treasury gets annually if $100 billion is generated in tariffs goes something like this. Of this $30 billion was generated previously for the U.S. government, so the incremental amount is $70 billion. Of this about $16 billion goes to offset the effect of loss of farm exports to farmers, mainly soyabeans exports to China, through a rescue fund. This leaves additional $54 billion for the U.S. Treasury. Money that could conceivably be put back into infrastructure that the U.S. badly needs in mobile and fixed to improve internet speeds and move up from its low rankings compared to China and other countries. A WSJ report this week shows Germany in worse shape than the U.S., both countries having dismal status in mobile infrastructure- the U.S. at No. 37, and Australia No. 4, Canada No. 3, and even Croatia No. 9. This throws some light on why this trade dispute has become intractable, for China the right of a sovereign nation to move past middle income status even as its telecom technology with Huawei 5G is top class, and for the U.S. the right not to fall behind in advanced technologies such as Telecom. It is also why one hears so much about Huawei and why it has become a flashpoint of the conflict in trade and trade practices. It is thought Mr. Trump is conducting this trade dispute. Yet less known is the fact that prominent Republicans in Congress such as Senator Warner have stated on television talk shows that they are concerned Mr. Trump may give up too much in negotiations that lead to the U.S. not being able to compete in telecom advanced technologies that matter for competitiveness and for national security. What was treated by Bush and Obama administrations routinely without much attention to the consequences is now a top concern for Republicans and others in Congress and business. ...

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WSJ Editorial Board on the Media's obsession with "Results" for the XI-DJT meetings when mutual respect and understanding was a key goal achieved. China's goal was clear from the start. It was that the US would recognize China for its achievements in manufacturing and infrastructure, in science and technology in the last 100 years. General Joe Stilwell who was the leading American in China in the first half of the 20th century, FDR's man in China, and who had a deep affection and attachment for the Chinese people and culture. Stilwell could not have been more gratified by the presence of the American president in Beijing after the struggles China has seen in his lifetime against the Japanese invasion and the struggles inside China for the road to industrialization in the second half of the 20th century. 

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The U.S. trade agreement with Mexico is for 16 years, to provide business with a stable rules environment to operate in. It includes a clause for review after 6 years. The content made in the U.S. is increased to 70% from 62.5%. This has to be made by workers earning at least $16  an hour. Aluminium and steel going into the cars has to come from the U.S. helping push U.S. steel plant capacity utilization to 80%. Labor collective bargaining is strengthened in Mexico through new provisions, a provision supported by new Mexican socialist president Obrador. Free trade in agricultural products is maintained. $4.7 billion was added in help to U.S. farmers as aid for the effects of China's tariff retaliation. New rules are set for textiles, chemicals, and steel intensive products that set requirements to qualify for tariff free import into the U.S. This is intended to help bring more jobs and investment in these industries in the U.S.     ...

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Weiner calls Franklin the "Least Dead" of the Founding Fathers of America. "Least Dead" for whom? Of pop cultures, TikTok, Facebook, social media and the rest? Benjamin Franklin is one of the founding fathers who was most revered, and who with his diplomatic activity secured French support for George Washington, Thomas Jefferson and the American cause in 1776. It was the French cannon, and the French Navy that made it possible for Washington to move his armies north and surround the British at Yorktown, Virginia ending the War of Independence. Weiner writes that Franklin is the most approachable one of the founding fathers, one you can talk with, one you would most likely want to have a beer with. Franklin is also the most interesting. Franklin's experiments with electricity are the earliest pioneering efforts of the scientific revolution of the 19th century that set Europe apart from Asia, and the scientific revolution of the 20th century that set America apart from the rest of the world. Franklin is not just a founding father, he is the founder of the US Post Office which was the radio and internet of its period making communication possible over long distances. Franklin was the first Postmaster General in 1775 and set up the US postal system. Franklin set up the first circulating library in 1731 and the University of Pennsylvania- the first fire department in Philadelphia. He was president of the state of Pennsylvania after Independence. There is a great deal of ignorance about the founding fathers no less in places like the entrance to the Smithsonian institution in Washington DC of all places, where no mention is made of Franklin as an Abolitionist, quite the reverse- Franklin's scientific mind and his modern thinking had no place for the European institution of slavery in the 1500-1800 period. Franklin was the president of the Pennsylvania Society for the Abolition of Slavery. Eric Weiner, is author of  "Ben and Me- In Search of a Founder's Formula for a Long and Useful Life." This is the second article in a series by NYT on America's 250th Anniversary for the Declaration of Independence. Weiner travels from Boston to London, and from Philadelphia to Paris along the sea route taken by Franklin to the Brittany coast in December 1776 with his 2 grandchildren, one of 7 voyages crossing the Atlantic. By 1781 Franklin had his first meeting with French King Louis XVI at Versailles. The US Mission and Franklin's home was located in the hillside village of Passy a few hours from Paris, where the clean country air and water helped revive him. He crosses the Atlantic again in 1783 when the Peace Treaty is signed by Franklin. Weiner is 70 in 2026 and writes that Franklin grew more serene with age even with some ailments, was loved in France, and returned to America for his final voyage home with his 2 grand children in 1785. A life well lived something for all Americans to aspire and emulate, and loved by his country. ...

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Following president Trump's decision to increase tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods on May 9, 2019, the WSJ looks at the mistakes made by both sides in misjudging each other's negotiating position. Mr. Trump says he is willing to increase the pressure on China by imposing tariffs on all Chinese imports into the U.S. after what he sees as China reneging on its commitments on trade by deleting key sections on enforcement provisions and Chinese legislation for enforcement to take place in the 150 page agreement prepared for both presidents to sign.  Early on in the negotiations between Liu He and Mr. Lighthizer, China misread the thinking on the U.S. side. Chinese thinking was that president Trump's urging for the Federal Reserve to lower rates was a perception sign of the weakening U.S. economy. It also may have misread the extent to which Mr. Trump trusts Mr. Robert Lighthizer, who Mr. Trump respects for winning a good deal with the Japanese in similar situation of Japanese rejection of U.S. demands. Mr. Trump also thinks the U.S. has a strong economy, is the largest world producer of oil, strong economic growth in the last quarter of 2018, is also negotiating better deals with other countries including the ones with Mexico, Canada and South Korea. It is also much less dependent on exports to China, giving it a stronger position with more experienced negotiators. China has whole sectors of its economy dependent on exports to the U.S., and crucial numbers of jobs at stake.  China also misread the signals from its stronger than expected economic growth from stimulus efforts in the last quarter, leading to it staking out a tougher position than the U.S. would accept. The U.S. position was set after decades of waiting for China to change and was unlikely to be affected by any temporary considerations.  As a result the U.S. not anticipating the Chinese response of deleting key sections agreed to in advance from the 150 page written agreement gave a strong response. Mr. Mnuchin who accompanied Lighthizer in talks says Mr. Lighthizer "read them the riot act" to the Chinese side. For the Chinese side the effort now shifted to continuing good faith talks without appearing to back down. ...

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CSU faculty organized against OpenAI contract expiring June 2026 at a time when students/faculty worry about loss of critical thinking skills amid 40% unemployment of new graduates. This is the California State University System once a major national institution of education under Governor Edmund Brown Sr in the 1960's that powered the 60's middle class, now torn apart by mistakes in higher education. Imagine Teniente-Matson in an AI created form speaking in many languages not realizing that this has little to do with education, as shown here in the NYT- coming to San Jose State from Texas A&M San Antonio. Both Hispanic student dominated institutions of education that have first generation Hispanics entering college- the promise of this first generation finding opportunities in the US economy. It is already fading for new graduates with high unemployment of 40%. The AI Initiative pushed by Governor Newsom in the state has created confusion or chaos says the NYT. This is the biggest 4 year public higher educational system in the US with 22 campuses, with diversity in California about 50% Hispanic. This is what "great" looked like for America in the 1960's with Eisenhower and JFK. Today with such misplaced initiatives and lack of the same wisdom and dedication to knowledge from that in the 1950's and 60's it is a fraction of its former self. It was marketed at $16.9 million for 500,000 licenses by OpenAI as a way for these first generation Hispanic college students most working class people to move forward. But as every commencement speech and everyone from the president to business leaders can attest it is all about hard work, hard work, hard work, and focus on reading and math, on sound basic skills, with pen and paper not ipads and iphones and AI that this job will be done. AI can never teach someone to persevere, to overcome obstacles, to put in the hard work over and over again to accomplish great things or to develop the curiosity for knowledge, the sense of new discovery  for scientific knowledge and invention that has powered America and Europe for three centuries. ...

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For the first time the U.S. focuses on the huge trade deficit with China in a serious way. The trade negotiating team led by Robert Lighthizer has set forth its negotiating terms.  1. China must reduce its trade deficit with the U.S. by $100 billion in the first 12 months. In the next 12 months it must reduce its deficit by another $100 billion. In 2 years the trade deficit the U.S. has with China must come down by $200 billion. The issue is no longer just the tariffs on steel, it is about the core issue of balance in  trade. 2. The U.S. says subsidies to state industries in the "Made in China 2025" program must stop. Here the focus is on gaining an unfair technological advantage with a combination of U.S. technology imports and subsidies to state advanced manufacturing industries to erode over time the U.S. technological lead.  3.  China is expected to cut its tariffs by about two thirds on imported products so that the tariffs match that of the U.S. This is the first serious negotiation the U.S. has conducted with China on the core issue of the trade surplus which is growing with a stronger dollar not declining. The surplus approaches $1 billion each day for about $365 billion a year, unsustainable from any perspective. The vital issue of the erosion of the U.S. technological advantage under the Made in China 2025 has turned this issue into one in which the U.S. is unlikely to back down. Especially now that Mr. Lighthizer is leading the  negotiations and has the confidence of the president of the U.S. Lighthizer is a veteran of negotiations from an earlier period -under the Reagan administration in a similar situation with another national competitor- then it was the Japanese. A relentless negotiator as the U.S. seeks to reverse a trade imbalance of stupendous proportions neglected by previous administrations.           ...

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Chevron in the US is now processing 250,000 barrels a day of oil from Venezuela.

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FIFA's $3 billion in revenue from ticket sales is 3 times what it was in Qatar, prices per game are double that in Qatar. What's going on? FIFIA is being accused of price gouging practices by the Attorney Generals of New Jersey and New York. Six games including the finals are to be played in the NY-NJ area. FIFA's Infantino says it will use $11 billion in soccer revenues (90% of tickets sold for the World Cup in the US/Mexico) for this nonprofit to do soccer projects around the world.  Fans are not happy with the way FIFA is extracting higher prices to put visiting the game beyond the reach of ordinary households. Shouldn't making  it possible to watch the game for ordinary income soccer fans also be part of FIFA's responsibility- instead of taking the opportunities for visiting soccer fields away from ordinary income people. 

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Securing transparency in financial receipts and their use by Labor Unions is a battle being fought since the Days when Robert Kennedy called this "the Enemy Within," and the Nation was shocked by the corruption in the Labor Unions. Since the days of Tammany Hall and Teddy Roosevelt's effort to clean up the system in the 1890's this is a forever battle. US auto unions benefitted from recent changes as old labor bosses were turned out and free and fair elections took place. The Washington Post says the added requirements for trade unions to file detailed disclosure of how they use funds is necessary and a good change made by the current Labor Secretary. Putting these disclosure forms online is also a good step as all workers can see where the money is going. The Post says no union boss should be afraid of more sunshine.

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This Editorial Board editorial in the WSJ should be titled Ukraine Corruption and Ukrainian people's interests in good governance. The reason is that beyond ensuring that the $187 billion sent by the US is used without corruption and this editorial cites evidence that this is the case through many oversight authorites US and EU has set up- there is the larger interest of the people of Ukraine battered and fatigued by 4 years of war. Corruption becomes an accepted practice in many democracies. Nations such as India that were mired in corrupt practices in state governments are seeing major changes in the last decade with public funds dedicated to infrastructure going to build the new infrastructure India needs to modernize its economy. It is proving that this is possible in Asia, as is shown in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, China and now India. There is every reason to believe Ukraine can achieve this good governance with sufficient efforts and this is the goal set by the European Union, by Germany, Britain and France, for Ukraine. ...

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Heidi Vogt provides this exceptional account on the U.S. and international efort to build Liberia's healthcare system from scratch. Years of civil war till 2003 and the shortage of funds mean that even basic equipment such as X ray machines and blood testing equipment are lacking in Liberian hospitals. Even with a effort that includes the U.S. Army and Air Force planes, a 25 bed hospital for healthcare workers using tents will take till early November to be operational. Showing that the response is sorely inadequate here in Liberia leading to the spread of Ebola to Europe and the U.S. by December at the current pace. Liberia's head of Ebola control says the international community has failed Liberia with its inadequate response. For the U.S. and Europe an inadequate response creates new dangers as the public has lost confidence in government response.

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This report in the WSJ says several forecasts for GDP growth in the U.S. economy for the third quarter show seasonally adjusted annual growth of over 3 percent. This includes Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta with GDPNow model predicting 3%, Macroeconomic Advisors 3.1%, Oxford Economics predicting 3%.

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President Trump shifts the mission of the White House Task Force to Safety and Reopening the Economy. Worldwide cases reach 3.72 million and death toll passes 261,000, according to John Hopkins University. U.S. deaths at 72,000 are about one third of the global total. U.S. confirmed cases are at 1.21 million.

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For what a ruble buys in Russia , 2.7 times what a dollar buys in the US, Russia gets alot of bang out of its defense budget of $149 billion, about $401 billion (Purchasing power) compared to US $997 billion. Add to this Russia is now a war economy in the war with Ukraine and concentrates its forces in one theatre not four as the US spread out over Indo-Pacific, Europe and Middle East and Korean peninsula. This is the reason behind most of DJT's actions reflecting realities in defense. Shut down the Middle East theatre which is also what the American people want by moving everything in the direction of economic progress, turning down the revolutionary and sectarian ideologies that roiled Egypt of Suez, Iraq and Syria, Afghanistan and Pakistan in the 60's and dragged the world into costly insane wars. And do this with the consensus of Russia, China and India. Wind down the war in Europe- accept the Russians as a Northern European power with a settlement of the Ukraine conflict, and let Germany lead Europe's defense. Manage the relationship in the Indo-Pacific with India and South and Southwest Asian investments in economic infrastructure that will offset China's rapid growth of the last three decades by incentivizing South Asia and South western Asia parts of which were called the Middle East by the Britons and now can be rengaged in the South /Southwest Asian group of nations led by the US. This is the policy for the next 25 years to 2050 that a Russia, Germany, US, China, India consensus sees as a constructive future for the people of the world.   ...

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This exceptional report by Ian Talley in the WSJ cites trade and currency expert William Cline about the prospect of a worsening trade deficit under the Trump administration. With an improving economy, says Cline, the dollar had already surged about 8% beyond its fair market value during the last 2 years under president Obama as the economy improved. After Trump's election it surged another 3%. This makes it likely that the trade deficit could approach 4% of GDP with the stronger dollar. More protectionist policy to support U.S. industry, worsening trade deficits, more trade friction could be expected in these conditions. He does point out that markets may be overestimating what will be spent on infrastructure, and how much interest rates will go up which support a stronger dollar. Yet the fact remains that under an administration that is keen on promoting U.S. exports a dynamic is underway that makes U.S. exports actually less competitive in international markets.