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Karzai a new man, the Karzai government which Gates has called a "crime syndicate" changing its face in an astonishing aboutface. Pakistan ending its obsession with India, with no change on either side Pakistan or India for a joint focus on economic development in South Asia, and no deep transformation of America's role in South Asia. The things Friedman wishes for so that the Obama presidency does not in his words sink in Afghanistan are asking for things that just don't happen with some sort of troop surge.

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Bhutan is a small mountain kingdom in north eastern India, bordering Tibet. Historically close ties with Tibet continued after China's takeover of Tibet following the coming to power of China's Communist Party in 1949. This led to a friendship treaty with India in 1949. A narrow piece of terrritory with 34 square kilometres is part of the dispute between China and India. India opposed the move to build Chinese roads in the area leading to a standoff that is now over 50 days. This territory is significant because it connects India's central plains to the northeastern states. Bhutan opposes the Chinese road work but tries to maintain friendly relations with China. The close relationship between India and Bhutan is part of the situation that emerged after China's takeover of Tibet. The Royal Bhutan Army's salaries are paid by India, road construction is done by India, and subsidies for food and kerosene were provided by India. A parliamentary democracy with a monarch was established in Bhutan under king Jigme Wangchuk, and elections were held in 2008, 2013. This has led to more openness towards China, leading to concern in India.  Bhutan is a popular destination for Chinese tourists who pay $250 for a visa. Indians do not need a visa. ...

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The U.S. under president Trump ends the 18 year long war with an agreement signed in Qatar between the U.S. and the Taliban. The Taliban are required to fight all forms of terrorism in Afghanistan as part of the agreement. In the first phase of the withdrawal of American troops, a third of the 12,000 American troops will be withdrawn with a similar reduction of NATO forces. This ends a costly war that cost about 1 trillion dollars and acted as a distraction from major problems in America such as aging infrastructure, and problems related to health, education and other services. President Trump was clear about his perception of America's role during a New Delhi news conference. America could not act in a police role for other states and regions, he said.

President Trump has secured support of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and India for the agreement to bring peace to the region.

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Sofiya Qureshi and Vyomika Singh along with Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri provide the first public briefing on the Operation Sindoor. They are women officers of the Indian Army and Air Force. The briefing was the first of its kind where details were provided by the Army, Air Force and the Foreign Ministry of India. It was a precisely done briefing showing the terrorist camps in Pakistan, Pakistan Occupied Kashmir and the ones targeted, and the link of each camp with a terrorist attack going back to 25 years. In this way it send the message that it is targeted at preventing this kind of terrorism at the source and as a preventive action to eliminate the chances of future terrorism, especially where it is targeting peaceful economic development and advancement of the whole of India.  Twenty three million tourists have visited Kashmir in 2024 and this has created a surge in the economy of Kashmir and increased the jobs and opportunities, the investment in Kashmir. The attacks at Phalgam are presented then as a direct attempt to turn back the tide of modernization of India. It is what the Japanese Kwantung Army did to suppress democratic forces in Japan and begin a war of imperialism in China. It was rooted before the Kwantung Army in the efforts to suppress the efforts of modernizers such as Sun Yat Sen by the Japanese. Gen. Joe Stilwell of the US led the struggle against the Imperial Japanese Army in China which is too easily forgotten in China as the first step towards the subsequent American effort in the 1990's to engage with China and help it modernize its economy. ...

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General Kayani meets with the newly elected prime minister of Pakistan before he takes office in an uncommon gesture of support for Pakistan's democratic process and the Nawas Sharif government. The recognition by the Army and Sharif of the special problems Pakistan faces in reviving the economy, and building infrastructure to meet the needs of the people after years of neglect, terrorism and conflict with India. See the article by Declan Walsh on the declining condition of Pakistan Railways and the dire need to rebuild basic services with international assistance and keeping the peace in South Asia.

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Iran's (IRGC's not the people of Iran who are protesting) strategy in talks is to stall peace talks, to use the help of global media which is creating perception for Iran, and see if the strategy of no nuclear materials turned over to Russia or some other country, see if that strategy works. This is  what German Foreign Minister Wadephul is saying on Day 16 of the Naval Blockade. Earlier this week German chancellor Merz called it unfortunate that the Iran War is continuing in explaining to ordinary Germans why the German economy is slowing down, yet he understands the danger posed by nuclear weapons in Iran or for that matter anywhere inthe volatile and explosive Middle East. Almost like the volatile and explosive Balkans that ignited World War I in 1914. This strategy of IRGC Iran does much irreparable damage to the Iranian economy in weeks to come. Iranian protests were intended to put the economy on a new path in which not just students, the middle class in the bazaars, the younger generation of Iranians who had the most to lose participated. Why is this happening? It is happening because of the complicated politics of the Middle East and centuries old differences within the Islamic world between different sectarian beliefs and cultures. It is not happening because of the US. The US cannot be responsible for what colonial empires of the British and French did in this region in the 1920's by creating artificial states of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, out of the Arab portion of the collapsed Ottoman Empire defeated in World War I with Shia, Sunni populations in these states mixed up into unmanageable states. Five decades of wars in the Middle East are the result of these unmanageable artificial states of French and British Empires by 1921. The British Empire also controlled Iran in the 1900's and its oil resources. There was no involvement of America as the British and French did what they wanted to do even in the Treaty of Versailles that ended WWI.  The fall of the pro-Soviet Mossadegh regime in 1956 was the only fragmentary situation which is an anti Soviet Cold War move by the US in 1952, and was done by a group that had British connections deep inside the Eisenhower administration led by Secretary of State John Foster Dulles that took this unfortunate step for America (looking back over  5 decades of wars). A British oriented group was active inside the Republican party that continued to operate in the Reagan administration's involvement in support for Iraq in its war with Iran. And which no longer exists in the Republican party led by DJT which puts America First, grasps the fact of unmanageable states of British and French Empires and seeks to distance the US from the Middle East. Gandhi and Patel (and Jinnah) avoided the creation of such a state in British India's partition into India and Pakistan. Afghanistan is simply an extension of this Middle Eastern complicated setup, including 9/11. Why is all this important? Arab Middle East is a dangerous place for nuclear weapons- this is all the US is trying to accomplish, thankfully without the cooperation of the British and French whose Empires are responsible for the creation of a hodge podge mix of peoples in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq which (check this out) never existed before British and French Mandates of 1921. The global and American media that sees DJT Republicans as too conservative on cultural issues and the political establishment intending to return to power have completely obscured or not presented this side of the Middle East, yet is key to devising a policy that keeps America out of Middle East wars but keeps the goal of no nuclear weapons in this powderkeg of a region. ...

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The lawyers who organized a movement for respect for the judiciary and reinstatement of all judges fired by Musharraf say their goal is the rule of law in Pakistan and look beyond the present political parties to a system of government that respects the law and the judiciary as in a parliamentary system like that of the United Kingdom which offers the earliest prcedent of judicial systems in Pakistan from the days of the British in India. This bodes well for Pakistan as the lawyers and their supporters can provide some fair and judicial basis for good government when the politicaians and the military have failed.

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Yousaf Humza comes from a family that immigrated from the Punjab state in Pakistan in the 1960's to Scotland. His grandfather worked at a Singer sewing machine factory in Clydesbank, and his father worked as an accountant. He studied for a Masters degree in Arts at Glasgow University and entered politics as a parliamentary assistant to Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon during the early days of the SNP. He held several ministerial positions before becoming First Minister. He is a Sturgeon loyalist who defeated challenger Elizabeth Forbes 52% to 48% in a close election for leadership of the SNP party.  His election is seen as a transitional period in the same way as Rishi Sunak's winning the leadership of the Conservative party after Boris Johnson like Nicola Sturgeon lost support. This is because of divisions within the SNP and in the Conservative party, and the rising popularity of Labour during a cost of living crisis after the ravages of the pandemic had affected working families in many ways. Both are from Punjab province of the British and the two provinces of Punjab in independent India and Pakistan. In fact the election of Humza as SNP leader and First Minister, the defeat of Elizabeth Forbes, provides Labour with an opportunity to win as many as 20 seats in Scotland for Keir Starmer of Labour to make it to No. 10 Downing Street, according to reports in The Times. ...

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A whole range of issues can be seen in the debt crises in developing countries. The margin for error shrinks with poor governance, lack of honest assessment and transparency for finances, wars and conflicts within or outside the countries, living beyond their means, lack of focus on development, infrastructure that is unproductive or unaffordable including some Belt and Road Initiative infrastructure at higher interest rates. Countries that are dependent on overseas remittances, tourism, that were hit hard by the pandemic have seen their finances further weakened reducing the margin for error even more to the point that the smallest tipping point can lead to huge crises. Once the finances are weak all it takes is an external tipping point that creates serious crisis. The war in Ukraine with shortages of wheat, fertilizer and skyrocketing oil prices acted as that tipping point. Because this was a major blow the crises have a level of magnitude that is more than a payments crisis. One sees this in South Asia in Sri Lanka and Pakistan, and in the Middle East for countries such as Egypt and Tunisia shown in this WSJ report. It is now not simply a crisis but a crisis of great magnitude because in the case of Sri Lanka and Pakistan this WSJ report says that both countries foreign exchange reserves have dwindled to the point where they can pay for only one or two months of imports according to central bank data, analysts and IMF. This crisis has affected countries that were seeing steady foreign investment such as Turkey for decades, then a sharp falloff in foreign investment with a change in the climate for foreign investment. The crisis has taken the form of high inflation, significant depreciation of currency that makes imports costlier so that shrinking revenues from loss of remittances, tourism, or other sources will now have less value in supporting import needs. Lack of a credible path can delay setting a path out of the crisis. The $1.5 billion fuel and electricity subsidy made by the prime minister of Pakistan in late February was done without IMF approval leading to the IMF program having to be renegotiated. Lack of national political and cultural consensus on a solution simply makes it that much more difficult to find the way through it. In this regard South Korea was able to tackle the 1997 financial payments crisis effectively because of a national consensus. The situation in Egypt- Egypt has borrowed $20 billion from the IMF since 2016., placing it second to Argentina in aid from IMF since 1980's.  In 2020 and 2021 Egypt' government spent more than 40% of its revenue servicing its debt, and is forecast to do the same in 2022. The situation in Tunisia- A shortage of sugar, flour, and other critical supplies, and government delaying wage payments to civil servants. The government got $400 million in financing last month from the World Bank and hopes to secure a lifeline from the IMF. Compared to the period between the 2 World Wars the two bright spots are China and India where lessons of the past of civil wars, religious or political conflict, and poor governance, lack of knowledge of how the western countries industrialized and modernized, was replaced with the conviction that drives patient effort, courage in the face of adversity, honesty, and humility to learn including from western countries that have forged their own path through the same difficult road. The most difficult experiences have offered lessons which were learned- for South Korea the Korean War and invasion from the north, China the civil war and Japanese invasion, for India the partition of India and million of refugees. Stagnation from stumbled efforts also taught lessons, the Great Leap Forward in China, the License Raj with corruption in India.       ...

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Sanger and Broad offer an assessment of progress in controlling nuclear proliferation and improving security during the two terms of U.S. president Obama. Obama took particular interest in this field as Senator. Today countries such as Belgium, Pakistan, are considered sources of potential problems in nuclear security. Urban security for nuclear materials is a priority. Japan, China, Pakistan and India have not reduced their nuclear materials stockpiles in Asia, and Russia refused to participate in the Nuclear Summit in 2016, led by the U.S. Problems are urgent to secure nuclear materials from terrorists and require high priority from world leaders. Pakistan has moved towards smaller tactical nuclear weapons which creates additional problems of security.

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The Jihad anti-Indian groups and the Pakistan Taliban in 2009, as they disrupt life in the Punjab province.

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For what a ruble buys in Russia , 2.7 times what a dollar buys in the US, Russia gets alot of bang out of its defense budget of $149 billion, about $401 billion (Purchasing power) compared to US $997 billion. Add to this Russia is now a war economy in the war with Ukraine and concentrates its forces in one theatre not four as the US spread out over Indo-Pacific, Europe and Middle East and Korean peninsula. This is the reason behind most of DJT's actions reflecting realities in defense. Shut down the Middle East theatre which is also what the American people want by moving everything in the direction of economic progress, turning down the revolutionary and sectarian ideologies that roiled Egypt of Suez, Iraq and Syria, Afghanistan and Pakistan in the 60's and dragged the world into costly insane wars. And do this with the consensus of Russia, China and India. Wind down the war in Europe- accept the Russians as a Northern European power with a settlement of the Ukraine conflict, and let Germany lead Europe's defense. Manage the relationship in the Indo-Pacific with India and South and Southwest Asian investments in economic infrastructure that will offset China's rapid growth of the last three decades by incentivizing South Asia and South western Asia parts of which were called the Middle East by the Britons and now can be rengaged in the South /Southwest Asian group of nations led by the US. This is the policy for the next 25 years to 2050 that a Russia, Germany, US, China, India consensus sees as a constructive future for the people of the world.   ...

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This writer appeals to old Cold War views and even before that the views of Russia from the 19th century when it was seen as a threat to the British Empire and Turkey, when he says the conflict in Georgia threatens American interests in places like Afghanistan and Iraq. The mountains of Afghanistan make it appear remote even from India much more from Georgia but in the grand strategy view all this is of no importance. And the conflict in Afghanistan has religious overtones with Islamic militants and involves Pakistan and other tribal and communal interests and now has become intertwined with the opium farming in the south. Besides America has no other interests in Afghanistan except it being used by elements like the Taliban and Islamic terrorist groups and has after the Soviet withdrawal left Afghanistan to itself, and the situation in Afghanistan is more a result of a conflict between India and Pakistan and of communal conflicts and creation of Taliban by support from Pakistan at that time....

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Dilip Hiro's new book on the emergence of two states India and Pakistan in 1947 presents the story in terms of the two founding leaders Mohandas Gandhi and Mohammed Ali Jinnah. The division of the region into conflicting states is shown as a result of the divergent views and politics of the two leaders. Jinnah who was skeptical of the mass civil disobedience movement of Gandhi and preferred a legislative approach, and Gandhi who appealed to the masses and oppressed millions in British India. Jinnah and Gandhi's style and approach were fundamentally different. Seven decades later Pakistan has failed to build a genuine participatory democracy for most of this period with military actively involved in government, and India in the manner of Gandhi built institutions of participatory democracy under different political parties. Jinnah was an assistant to Dadabhai Naoroji, India's first nationalist leader at the turn of the century, when the two were in London. Naoroji passionately argued against the British policies that entrenched the poverty of millions of Indians in the countryside. Ironically it was Gandhi, not Jinnah, who took up Naoroji's call for bringing hope to the hundreds of millions of people on the subcontinent in "Poverty and Un-British Rule in India," first published in 1901, and showing how the draining of the country by the British was leaving India weak and oppressed. In 2015 that struggle of Naoroji for bringing hope and economic opportunity to millions of people is the task taken up by India's new government and the new government in Pakistan. Naoroji, the first Asian to be elected as a member of the British parliament, established the East India Association in 1867, the predecessor organization to the Indian National Congress which he founded with Hume, and is the leader Gandhi and Jinnah most respected in the first three decades of the twentieth century. Naoroji was elected to the British parliament for the Liberal party from Finsbury Central in 1892, and was assisted in his campaign and duties as a member of parliament by Mohammed Ali Jinnah. In the light of this common upbringing for Gandhi and Jinnah, the nineteen forties and their aftermath could be seen as a detour, not the substance of political life on the subcontinent- just as Mao and Chiang Kai Shek are a sort of detour for today's China. Particularly in a globalized world where technology continues to open up unbelievable economic opportunity, interchange and communication. ...

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President Trump outlines a plan for Afghanistan that increases the U.S. troop presence from about 8500 with an addition of 4000 more troops and advisors, in addition to a counter terrorism force. To war weary public in the U.S. he says: "I share your frustration over a foreign policy that has spent too much time, energy, money- and most importantly, lives- trying to rebuild countries in our own image instead of pursuing our security interests above all other considerations." About his criticism of the war when president Obama was in office as a huge costly waste of resources Trump said: My original instinct was to pull out, and historically I like to follow my instincts... I heard that decisions are much different when you sit behind the desk at the Oval Office." After resisting the advice of his own advisers Trump decided to fire Bannon who had supported use of American private security contractors for the war in Afghanistan, and used parts of the media to question national security advisor McMaster's views on this. Gen. Mattis, completed a strategy review that showed the mistake of creating a vacuum would repeat the situation of Iraq where president Obama withdrew forces in 2011, leading to a sequence of negative events- with Russia, Iran and Islamic State moving into the vacuum, making American intervention in the war necessary, increase in terrorist incidents worldwide, and a flood of refugees into Europe. Ironically clearing the path for an outsider's bid for the White House, with Brexit in which refugee fears and uncontrolled immigration played a part, and the news of terrorism and the war in Syria-Iraq creating a sense of insecurity. A key difference in the Trump approach with Obama's approach is that "conditions on the ground, not arbitrary timetables will guide our actions from now on," in line with Trump's criticism of Obama's approach. The military in the U.S. has long maintained that the best approach would have been to insist on U.S. presence in negotiations with the Iraqi government under the sectarian prime minister Nouri Maliki. Gen. Mattis was head of Central Command under the Obama administration and must have pushed the view of the military to president Obama to no avail. Failure to do so led to the growth of Shiite militias and the alienation of Sunnis in Mosul, leading to the fall of Mosul to Islamic State thus creating the current crisis. Gen. Mattis and Lt. Gen McMaster are intimately aware of the problem and must have convinced Trump that this is what really happened, that a repeat would waste the sacrifices of American soldiers in the twin wars. Trump gave this as his reason when he said in his televised speech to the nation- essentially a criticism of Bush that he expanded the conflict too quickly, and Obama exiting too quickly to create a void. Trump call his policy "principled realism."  The roots of the crisis are in the India-Pakistan conflict. Like the conflict in South East Asia the conflict in South Asia extending from Iran to India and Pakistan, may take a generation to overcome. A rapprochement between India and Pakistan, beginning with trade and economic relations, is not only in America's interest, it also provides the basis for a realistic American withdrawal. ...

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Agreement was reached for the civilian nuclear deal between India and the U.S. in all night talks, just as President Bush landed in New Delhi. Bush is changing the whole dynamic of India/Pakistan and U.S. relations in a manner comparable to Nixon's visit to China and handshake with Mao. It will never be the same. Divide and rule policies inherited from the British colonization period which pitted India and Pakistan in relation to western interests is put into the dustbin of history. A new period in the relations of the western nations with Asia is beginning, Japan in the Meiji period, China with its opening after the Nixon visit, and India now after the Bush visit. See the speech to the Asia Society by Bush. In this sense Bush and Rice are making huge farreaching changes coinciding with the changes they see in Asia, in a way not even fully understood by themselves and much less by the American press and even less by the American public.

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The fact that Osama bin Laden was in Abbotabad, near the Pakistan military academy and military facilities, and was probably sheltered by the ISI, raises the issue of Pakistan sheltering the terrorists who planned the Mumbai attacks. This increases pressure on the Indian government to take up this issue and affects efforts to improve relations.

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It is important for a correct sense of the Middle East to see these British Arab states from Kuwait to UAE and Qatar in the context of British India if one is to see them as part of the modern world as India is. This is now US policy under DJT and has been under Biden for a peaceful economically advanced region. A third of Arabian peninsula Arab protectorates were run from British India from 1800 onwards. The Interpretation Act of 1889 listed the states under British India in the Arabian peninsula including Kuwait, Bahrain, Aden now Yemen, Oman, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and they were listed along with Jaipur, Hyderabad and Bhawalpur. British Prime minister Clement Attlee wanted to give independence to these Arab states along with the independence of India and Pakistan in 1947. But this did not happen till 1971. In 1937 the first of many separations from the British Empire in India of Arab states was announced. Aden, now Yemen, was separated from the British Empire in India to the Colonial Empire. British Empire authorites in Delhi never wanted to administer these Arab states even though the British Indian Political Service ran each of these states till 1971. They were very poor and lacking basic infrastructure, things changed only after the discovery of oil in late 1930's. ...

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Countries dependent on remittances of workers overseas are hit hard by the coronavirus. This WSJ report shows the situation in Central America which gets $24 billion in remittances form its workers in the U.S. E Salvador gets $5.6 billion in remittances. This is down by 40% in April central bank numbers show, because of jobs lost in the U.S. by workers from El Salvador who migrated to the U.S.  Unemployment rate for Hispanics in April was 20%. El Salvador depends on remittances more than any other Latin American country as remittances are higher than exports. In some rural areas this means older residents have no money to buy food and depend on charities for food supplies.

Today the situation in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, and other countries in Asia which depend on remittances of overseas workers is also leading to a difficult time for families dependent for such support.

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Vegetable prices in China went up by 22% in July 2010, from a year earlier, and grain prices went up by 12%, eggs by 8%. About a third of household budgets go to food in the budgets of people in India and China. Wheat prices are climbing on world markets after the ban on Russian exports, and rice prices are also climbing with the floods in Pakistan ruining the rice crop- Pakistan being the No.3 world's rice exporter. Personal spending accounts for 36% of overall GDP in China and 57% in India. Food prices in China were up 6.8% in July, 2010. Industrialization in China, and agricultural land freely taken over for factory sites with the consent of local authorites, may be a complicating factor. See the link to BYD's acquisition of agricultural land for factory site.