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Rebecca Long-Bailey, a Labour MP describes labour's program to end in-work poverty in the UK over 5 years. About 5 million people face in-work poverty in the UK which has become worse during the pandemic with little help from the Tories.

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The Bank of Cyprus and the Cyprus Popular Bank (Laiki Bank), passed stress tests given by the EU in 2010 and 2011. By the end of 2010- even as other banks such as Barclays were cutting their Greece government bonds by over 50%- the two banks held 5.8 billion euros of Greece bonds, over $1 billion euros larger exposure to Greece than nine months earlier, according to European regulators. Regulatory supervision failed to alert the banks and the banks risk management failed to see the warning signs in Greece. The Laiki Bank Risk Officer went in the opposite direction actually increasing exposure to Greece, saying in a conference call in August 2010, that he had used the bank's capital position "to deepen selectively some highly profitable client relationships." What went wrong with the stress tests by the EU regulators in July 2010 of these two banks, was that the tests looked at what would happen if economic conditions deteriorated, but did not consider the possibility that government bonds could produce losses. The two banks suffered total booked losses of 4.3 billion euros in 2013 from holdings of Greece bonds. The EU stress tests of July 2010 showed the two banks having total of 572 million in surplus capital. The two banks then went on to issue dividends in 2010-2011 totalling 141 million euros. By March 2013 the Laiki Bank was "on respirator" for a few months, according to the Central Bank of Cyprus, until the 10 billion euro EU bailout in March 2013 with the closing of Laiki Bank and the sharp downsizing of Bank of Cyprus....

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The Observer in Britain says Jeremy Hunt's Tory tax cuts will result in further cuts to essential public spending in health and education, and public services to the disadvantaged. Without the funding to improve public infrastructure Britain is getting locked into a painful low growth future. Households are on average 1900 pounds poorer by the end of this parliament compared to December 2019, and weekly earnings will not reach 2008 levels till a full twenty years later in 2028, says The Observer. This is the extent of the damage done by the Tory governments of Cameron, Johnson and Sunak.

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Patrick Soon-Shiong Surgeon, medical businessman and LA Times Owner, bought the LA Times for $500 million in 2018 which is now incurring losses of $48 million. He wants to take the LA Times public with an IPO offering. Soon-Shiong made $6 billion with blood thinner heparin of APP Pharmaceuticals and Abraxis Biosciences chemotherapy drug Abraxane, both firms he founded.

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U.S. GDP growth was revised to show 3% growth in the second quarter of 2017. The GDP growth estimate from the Federal Reserve in June is for full year GDP growth of 2.2% in 2017, 2.1% in 2018, and 1.9% in 2019. Experts say it is hard to achieve full year GDP growth of 3% because the labor force would have to be much larger, grow faster and productivity would have to be much higher. 

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In Suzy Hansen's interview with Greece finance minister Varoufakis in the NYT, May 20, 2015, Varoufakis says his worst fear is that the EU will insist on the 4.5% surplus. He says he cannot budge on pensions because of the way the elderly have suffered, and on collective bargaining rights for workers. The EU proposal made by Hollande and Merkel after stalled negotiations shows the EU conceding on the surplus and collective bargaining, but asking for some cuts in pensions. Dendrinou and Stamouli provide some details of the proposal of Hollande and Merkel for Greece that is emerging after stalled negotiations. The proposal sets targets for primary surpluses- revenues minus expenditures before interest payments- of 1% in 2015, 2% in 2016, 3% in 2017, and 3.5% in 2018. Under the existing program for Greece the targets for surpluses were 3% in 2015 and 4.5% after 2016. The reduction is 2 percentage points for 2015 and 2.5 percentage points in 2016 for the primary surplus from the prior program. Greece's pensions system will have to come up with savings of 0.25%-0.5% of GDP in 2015, and 1% of GDP in 2016. Another major concession by the EU is no reduction in the number of public sector workers in exchange for the Greek government's commitment not to reverse previous measures taken to open up labor markets by prior governments. In place of immediate measures to make firing workers easier, further consultation with the EU will take place. Greece will be asked to simplify its VAT system to 2 rates of 11% and 23% which would generate higher revenues. Greece had asked for 3 rates, which EU officals say did not come up with the extra 1.8 billion euros, or about 1% of GDP....

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Growing the banking business right into the 2008 financial crisis - with the effects of the crisis playing out over the next decade- is one decision GE CEO Immelt has described as one he didn't do right. Moves in 2014 and 2015 were designed to focus GE on areas of its historic strengths. GE plans to sell $26.5 billion of office buildings and commercial real estate debt to Blackstone Group and Wells Fargo. This is after moves to spin off the private label credit cards and retail finance business as a separate company called Synchrony Financial. Most of GE Capital's $500 billion business will be sold off or spun off in 2015-2016, except for aircraft leasing and financing for energy and health care, which are related businesses. GE shares were up to $28.38, up 10%, in trading on April 9, 2015. GE Capital's shares were down to $6 in the 2008 financial crisis requiring an injection of government funds. Immelt's 13 years as CEO would end on a positive note with this move, as the role of GE Capital in contributing to the crisis is considered a blemish on his record....

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The lower oil prices in 2015 helps lower the current account deficit, which reached 7.9% in 2013, to 5% projected for 2015. Inflation is projected at 6.8%. GDP growth of 3.5% is expected for 2015. Turkey imports oil amounting to about 6% of GDP making for a large impact. Weakness is in the area of manufacturing, as Turkey's high tech exports are only 2% of manufactured exports, according to the Economist. About 1% of Turkish students have advanced computer skills. With problems in Brazil and Russia, money flowing into emerging markets is giving Turkey a second look after the emerging markets crisis in early 2014, when the lira slumped and interest rates had to be increased. The economy is recovering in 2015 from that situation. Two major beneficiaries of lower oil prices in emerging markets are India and Turkey in 2015, as both economies struggled with a large oil import bill.

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Saudi price cut in November 2014 to reverse market share decline in the U.S. The Saudi share of total U.S. oil consumption declined to 4.6% in August 2014 from 7% in August 2013, according to EIA. This brought NYMEX price to below $80 in early Nov. 2014.

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Starter interrupt devices have been installed by U.S. auto loan lenders on about 2 million vehicles, and feeding the boom for making subprime loans by reducing the delinquency rate. Its a new virtual repo system unlike anything known before, described in this exceptional piece by Corkery and Silver-Greenberg, with implications that reach beyond borrowers to the safety of the U.S. financial system. It means the lenders have a false incentive to reach deeper into the pool of subprime borrowers with lower and lower credit ratings, with the securities marketed using these loans spread out over the entire financial system waiting for another implosion like the one in 2008. Consider that the subprime auto loans have reached 27% of total loans in 2013, and $145 billion of subprime auto loans were made in just the first quarter of 2014. At some point this could reach the 36% in 2006 before the implosion in subprime securities of 2008, destabilizing the U.S. and global financial system. Are the regulators again asleep at the job? ...

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Bernanke in reflections on his policies for quantitative easing in response to the 2008 financial crisis, says the policies were intended to protect Main Street and the average American, even though this is not readily apparent. He says the policies did not lead to inflation as critics have stated, and one has only to look at today's inflation statistics to know this- referring critics to the government CPI report in Jan 2014 that consumer prices went up by 1.5% in 2013 and less than 2% for 2012. Bernanke says he hopes he took the right actions, and still retains the conviction that the American economy will recover losses from the 2008 financial crisis- even though the answers to this questions won't be seen for some time.

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Ford's new 2013 Fusion model was radically redesigned to compete with the redesigned midsize Camry, and expected redesigns of the Honda Accord, Nissan Altima, the VW Passat and the Chevy Malibu. Ford hopes to gain market share with the Fusion after making only a small gain in market share of one tenth of a point in 2011, compared to half a percentage point for GM and 1.3 percentage points for Chrysler. VW Passat sales doubled in the last quarter of 2011 compared to all of 2010, showing increased competition in this segment. The new Fusion was designed at Ford's design center in Cologne, Germany, where the Focus was designed. Ford is shifting responsibility for car design to Europe and keeping pickup truck and SUV design in the U.S.

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Over $700 million in aid was provided in 2013 to struggling Chinese automakers from the central and local governments in an overcrowded industry, according to Wind Information Company. Companies receiving aid include Dongfeng Motor, BYD, Geely, Great Wall Motor, Guangzhou Automobile. Both domestic and foreign makers of cars are increasing capacity in an oversupplied market as sales decelerate. Domestic brands market share is declining compared to foreign car makers. Domestic makers market share declined to 37.1% in April 2014 from 39.6% in 2013, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. Ford Motor has added large SUV capacity to increase sales, and VW plans to increase capacity further. By 2015, overcapacity in China's market could reach 8 million cars, according to UBS Securities.

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This WSJ editorial points to the median income levels for 2014 being 6.5% below the level in 2007, median income level declining in 2011 and 2012, stagnant in 2014, according to the Census Bureau, as a reason why there is so much economic anxiety for average Americans. The appeal of Sanders and Trump reflects this anxiety and anti-establishment feeling. The official poverty rate at 14.8%, means 46.7 million Americans are below the poverty line. About 34.5% of the people experienced 2 or more months below the poverty line in 2009-2012, showing how it is hitting the middle class.

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Changes for US and Asia, EU, to ponder on are happening in Swedish schools. It is back to books in Sweden as digital learning has not worked well so far and reading has suffered in some ways dismally. At younger ages books are better for reading and comprehension than screens. "We're trying, actually, to get rid of screens as much as possible," says the Education Minister. The government uses a slogan "från skärm till pärm,  in Swedish this translates to "from screen to binder". Later in 2026 a ban on mobiles in schools even for educational use goes into effect. Digital acts as a distraction and lessens concentration say teachers. Sweden scores on PISA tests have gone down since 2012. A new curriculum based on books goes into effect in 2028 and 157 million euros will be used for new books in schools. "Reading real books and writing on real paper, and counting with real numbers on real paper, is much better if you want kids to get the knowledge they need," say Swedish education experts consulted for the changes. This is a sea change other nations need to consider doing. ...

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The Italian government sold 5 billion euros of three year bonds in Jan 2013 at an interest rate of 1.85%, the lowest since 2010. This is a remarkable change from 2012.

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Brett Arends cites several factors for his skepticism about the 4th quarter 2010 US stock market rally. Cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratios that are 75% above their average value. A market value for US equities excluding financial stocks, that is within 15% of the October 2007 peak. Fed data that shows nonfinancial corporations have debt of $7.4 trillion at the end of the third quarter 2010, an increase of $250 billion in one year, and up from $5.5 trillion in 2005. This Fed data shows the debt for nonfinancial US corporations is 58% of their net worth, up from 41% five years ago. US consumers are still have the kind of debt burdens they had in 2008, with US households having reduced their debt by only about 3.5%. Arends says the leveraging is through the roof when you add up the debt that government and corporations have run up. Total debt has risen to $36 trillion, up 15% from the fall of 2007. He cites other experts who were right for the last decade who are skeptical this time- Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff, Albert Edwards at S.G. Securities, John Hussman at Hussman Funds. The latest analysis by Jeremy Grantham at GMO is that large cap US stocks are not likely to beat inflation by much over the next 7 years. Arends has not mentioned global risk indicators such as the asset price bubbles developing in emerging markets, and the sovereign debt restructuring needed in debt burdened countries of the European Union. Analysis by the Economist in year-end 2010 points to the diverging directions of austerity in Europe, spending in the US and asset price bubbles in emerging markets, as a disturbing sign for 2011-2012. Risks in the US that Arends has not mentioned include problems in housing. Nouriel Roubini sees problems in housing in 2011. ...

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Vodafone announces a merger with Idea Cellular Ltd to become India's largest telecom carrier in March 2017. Vodafone has spent heavily in acquiring companies after selling its stake in Verizon Wireless in 2014. It faces tough competition in the price sensitive Indian market with some plans going for as little as $3 a month, and the offer of 6 month services for free by Mr. Ambani's carrier. In Nov. 2015 Vodafone took a 5 billion euro writeoff for its Indian operations.

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The defensive nature of invesments in healthcare sector with increasing uncertainty in the 4th quarter of 2014 and the first quarter of 2015. The S&P 500 Healthcare Index trades at 17.3 times earnings for the next 12 months, up from 16.7 at the beginning of 2014, according to FactSet. By comparison the S&P 500 trades at 16 times earnings. A major factor pushing earnings is the development of new drugs for cancer, and other diseases. FDA approved 41 new drugs in 2014, up from 27 in 2013, and 39 in 2012.

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The IMF in its 2012-2013 Global Economic Outlook Report presented at its annual meeting in October 2012 estimates global economic growth of 3.3% in 2012 and 3.6% in 2013. This is a drop of 0.2% for 2012 and 0.3% for 2013 from its earlier forecast in July 2012. Under the IMF definition the global economy GDP does not have to decline for a recession. Advanced economies growth estimate is 1.3% in 2012 and 1.5% in 2013. Emerging market economies growth estimate is of 5.3% in 2012 and improving to 5.6% in 2013. Specifically for the eurozone growth estimate is decline of 0.4% in 2012 and 0.2% growth in 2013. U.S. growth is estimated at 2.2% for 2012. China's growth rate is estimated at 7.8% in 2012 with a growth uptick to 8.2% in 2013 as a much smaller stimulus than the one in 2009 kicks in. This will help commodity exporters like Brazil, Australia, and Canada. Two surprises are Brazil's growth with a significant improvement to 4% in 2013 from 1.5% in 2012 because of sharp interest rate cuts and improving demand from China. The other is India which is expected to show a significant slowdown with a growth estimate of 4.9% as the government faces what the Kelkar committee report calls "a perfect storm" of a large current account deficit and a budget deficit, and failure to attract foreign investment. Growth in Japan is expected to slow to 1.2% in 2013 from 2.2% in 2012 as the government imposes a sales tax increase to reduce its deficit. ...

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To get the agreement of the 27 countries engaged in the talks to set new banking rules, the new Basel III banking rules are being phased in over a protracted period. Some changes go into effect in 2013, but others will be put into effect by 2019. The focus on the new rules is how much capital, or "common equity" banks will be required to hold as a cushion to absorb losses in a crisis like that of 2008. Large banks will be required to hold 7% of their assets in common equity. By 2015, banks will have to begin building a 2.5% buffer of capital, which must be in place fully by 2019. No action was taken on issues such as requirements for banks to have access to ample liquidity, what systemically important banks should hold in capital, and establishing a counter cyclical capital buffer.

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The Hunter Biden investigation for non payment of taxes and illegally carrying a firearm was done under the US Attorney for Delaware David Weiss in 2018 appointed by Republicans, and extended into the Democratic Biden administration with Attorney General Merrick Garland. It ends in a plea deal. WSJ says this protects the Biden administration from any claims that it was helping the president's son.  He is the second son of Joe Biden and Neilia Biden. His mother and sister were killed in a car accident when he was a child. The only survivors Hunter and his brother Beau. Beau died of cancer in 2015. Hunter suffered a decline after that period leading to a divorce with Buhle in 2017, a troubling period for the whole Biden family she says. Hunter is a graduate of Georgetown and of Yale law school. 

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Auto sales for 2010 are expected to come in at 11.5 million, a significant drop from the 17.5 million in 2000. A better job market expected to push the unemployment rate down a bit to 9.7% from 9.8% in November will help, but not by enough. Credit Suisse analyst Christopher Ceraso says each percentage point that the rate is above normal ( about 5%) keeps sales back by about a million auto sales on an annual basis. To get sales back to a 16 million range this would require an unemployment rate of 6%. Economists expect a better US economy in 2011 but the prospects remain uncertain for 2012, bringing unemployment down to about 8-9% if hiring picks up. The other concerns are high consumer debt and a rise in gasoline prices. If gas prices rise and buyers shift back to smaller vehicles, as they did in 2008, this would squeeze margins and profits. This is especially a concern as automobile companies have increased profits with a larger truck and large size vehicle component of sales, in a reverse shift after the shift to smaller cars in 2008-2009. Ford Motor is one example of this. It helps Ford use the extra profits to reduce its debt load but automakers have to be prepared for a sales shift to smaller cars in the face of higher gas prices....

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A former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors during 2010-2011 offers his reflections on the quantitative easing policies of Fed chairman Bernanke. He points out that the Fed was simply offsetting the effects of tight credit channels when it employed QE to prevent this from damaging the economy at a sensitive time. Inflation would have increased as critics say, only if the Fed did not reverse its policy with tapering as it is doing now. Bernanke offers a similiar assessment and says Fed critics refuse to look at todays inflation numbers which are below 2% for 2013- and also below 2% for 2012.