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Iraq is Iran's most promising market for gas exports. Iraq needs the gas for its power stations now that Islamic State has been decisively cleared from Iraq. Yet Iraq is having difficulty making payments to Iran for gas supplies because banks are not ready to handle the payments with the reimposed tighter U.S. sanctions and restrictions. The deputy head of media at the Electricity ministry in Iraq, Sadoun Shehan, told WSJ that transfer of money by Iraqi banks is prevented because of U.S. sanctions. U.S. sanctions were reimposed by the Trump administration after they were lifted in January 2016. The new sanctions prohibit gas exports from Iran. Iran had hoped to make the sales and also export to the European Union when sanctions were lifted. Iranian exports of gas that started in 2017 were itself delayed for 4 years by the war from Islamic State.  Iran has the second largest reserves of natural gas in the world. The Trump administration's sanctions have led to a drop of Iranian crude shipments by 29% in 3 months and added to upward pressure on oil prices to take prices to $80 a barrel. This issue has implications for India and China, particularly India as it faces both higher prices for oil and the tight restrictions in purchase of Iranian oil. ...

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The full text of the letter is given here. In this letter the U.S. sets out some important facts about events that happened during the coronavirus crisis during the crucial 4 month period from December 2019 to March 2020. Every week lost in this time due to reasons of a lack of transparency, openness meant hundreds of thousands of people more infected and tens of thousands of deaths worldwide. There are questions of transparency, of openness and this raises questions about the manner in which the World Health Assembly operates with hundreds of small countries in Africa and Asia having votes equal to that of the U.S., India, Brazil, Mexico with votes taken of over 200 countries. The entire election process can now be seen as questionable, when over a billion people in one country alone such as India or hundreds of millions in Brazil and Mexico would have to bear the consequences of poor decisions made by small countries that can be swayed in one direction or another based on political bias and other considerations that have nothing to do with global health.  At the conclusion of the letter by the U.S. to the current WHO shaped by a controversial election in 2017 the following is stated about the standards set by Gro Harlem Brundtland and which helped the world prevent the SARS crisis which originated in China in 2003 from spreading to the large countries of the world India, Brazil, Mexico, and other such countries in Asia and Africa, Latin America, and the U.S. European Union. "In 2003, in response to the outbreak of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in China, Director-General Harlem Brundtland boldly declared the World Health Organization’s first emergency travel advisory in 55 years, recommending against travel to and from the disease epicenter in southern China. She also did not hesitate to criticize China for endangering global health by attempting to cover up the outbreak through its usual playbook of arresting whistleblowers and censoring media. Many lives could have been saved had you followed Dr. Brundtland’s example." Even this does not come to grips with the flawed way in which the election of WHO head is done. It can no longer be relied on when there is the danger that lack of transparency can emerge in the WHO leadership itself because of a flawed process. It risks endangering the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of millions in countries such as India, Brazil, Mexico, as well as in the relatively small countries of Africa and Latin America where even basic water supplies are at risk but which could tilt elections at the World Health Assembly. Consider that a cyclone just hit the Indian state of West Bengal and Bangladesh on May 20 just as the coronavirus pandemic is spreading. That this region of 1.5 billion people had just 2 votes out of over 200 cast at the World Health Assembly in 2017 shocking. And even these votes cast based on old geopolitical considerations not how good the candidate is, and how good the country he is coming from is in terms of its record  on public health. The irony here is that private foundations in the advanced countries in the U.S. and Europe some of whom are major donors to WHO did not think that more experienced candidates in their own countries with a better record of public health such as in France or Germany are better qualified, in a flawed NGO support mentality left from the Clinton years. Basically the people in these large countries such as India, Brazil, Mexico were disenfranchised, when the austerity policies were consuming the European Union, and the U.S. had just elected a new administration itself groping for ways to reverse years of neglect of public services and infrastructure priorities. They would trust good leaders no matter where they come from, who have a record of transparency, leadership, and all the values we cherish together no matter where we come from. ...

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Defense experts in Britain say the part of the Russian army that is modern is not large, and the part that is large is not modern. The Russian advance attack in Ukraine has floundered, says this report in the WSJ. About 25% of the Russian army is made up of conscripts. The hundreds of billions of dollars spent on modernization of the Russian armed forces have been spread thinly, and dissipated also because of corruption and poor management.  The Russian encrypted communications did not work as expected leading to relying on open communications that could be intercepted or jammed. The Russian government and president Putin were still stuck on 2014 and did not realize the determined resistance and the desire for independence of the Ukrainian people. Ukraine is a technologically advanced European country the size of Germany with a population of 40 million, and Russia has an economy the size of Italy, factors that also played a part. The corruption and poor economic conditions in the border Ukrainian republics setup by Russia led many Ukrainians in the eastern border region to question any advantages from Russian rule. The user of poorly motivated conscript soldiers led to many generals and other officers to have to be present on the front lines leading to Russian officer level casualties. The use of antitank weapons supplied quickly from the European Union and the US, and use of small mobile units of Ukrainian volunteer and army forces to tactically destroy the front and rear of miles long convoys of tanks and armored vehicles - leaving the rest of the convoys trapped in between. Logistics also failed to resupply deep inside Ukraine as Russian forces depend on rail based resupply which could not happen without control of cities on the rail lines. The volunteer forces in Ukraine after 8 years of war since 2014 and the immediate assistance with antitank and other military assistance from US, and EU, played a part in the western response to the Ukraine crisis and president Putin's actions.   ...

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Friedman has second thoughts on the effectiveness of President Obama's foreign policy and turning away from the Middle East. He says this risks hurting the European Union with the flow of refugees, and wonders how the U.S. would react if there was an attack in the U.S. like the one in Brussels in March 2016 using suicide bombers.

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For the approaching US midterm elections president Biden seeks to draw a sharp contrast with Republican Senator Rick Scott's Plan which he says would worsen inflation and increase taxes on working class families. Mr. Scott's plan is for sunset on all federal legislation and president Biden says this would include Medicare and Social Security. Mr. Scott also wants all Americans to pay some income tax to have skin in the game. At this time about half of all Americans pay no taxes says Mr. Scott. Former US president Trump continues to lead the Republican party in 2022  yet he faces a very different Democratic party under president Biden. Mr. Biden's focus is on his $2 trillion plan for Workers and Families, rebuilding American manufacturing and renewing supply chains, unlike Hillary Clinton whose lacked such a focus. Leading to Mr. Trump's appeal with working class families and disdain for traditional Republican policies that secured him the presidency in 2018 by defeating Hillary Clinton. The changes with president Biden's focus on workers and families are happening also in the European Union. Scholz and the Greens in Germany, Macron in France with potentially Melenchon as prime minister, and similar changes in Denmark and other EU countries suggest that there is a renewed focus on infrastructure, rebuilding manufacturing and supply chain renewal, rebuilding incomes and lives of workers and families, in Europe and the US. ...

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Democrats continue to believe they lost in 2024 because they did not attack DJT enough. This fails to cite issues such as cost of living- surge in the third year of the Biden administration with 20% increase in prices and Biden failing to take notice and address this quickly. A wave of illegal immigration- the failure of Mayorkas, himself a Cuban immigrant in 1960, put in charge of Homeland Security and ICE, and Harris who was an attorney helping indigents in inner city San Francisco, to grasp the fears of border states and southern states. The failure to understand that the border was open and inviting waves of illegal immigrants, some with questionable backgrounds. This issue created a sense of unease in the fabric of society and American people. Other issues simply showed how Harris could not relate to the conservative people and average people in the country in the cultural aspect such as transgender, rural America. Biden pulling out suddenly, loss of rural vote- failure of Democrats since Obama to pay attention to rural voters, Harris not appealing to the white male vote in the US, are other factors that hurt Democrats. DJT gained with the shooting incident in Pennsylvania in which he survived, and the perception raised during a garbage truck and DJT photo that the Democrats derided, seen by the public as looking down on working class people. Democrats never really grasped how the political system had gone in reverse- the Republicans had put cultural aspect first and conservative now meant working class voters and white voters in rural areas/small towns, big cities, ( the Archie Bunker type of an earlier era who was now a Democrat, not the college educated and Ivy league Harvard type that had taken over the Democratic party). This continues to this day with some paradox as the business class and the billionaire class sit alongside the working class person in the Republican party DJT created. DJT did this in 2016 by pulling together workers hurt by Bush and Obama's policies favoring the educated classes and affluent, ignoring rural areas and farmers, and committing US to wars in the Middle East that squandered the Nations' resources and human lives. This was aggravated in the Biden/Harris/Mayorkas years by letting in migrants across the border by the millions that created a great deal of unease in the working classes. In this way labor unions or their rank and file left the Democratic party- a problem that plagues Democrats to this day, that Biden tried but failed to fix. The border issues had become complex by the latter part of the Biden administration because of the complete collapse of Venezuelan economy and the drug cartels in Mexico smuggling people and drugs across the border, for which the Biden administration or Harris had no answer.  It was the failure of administrations to continue the Monroe Doctrine in the form given by FDR as "Good Neigbor Policy," and JFK as the Alliance for Progress, allowing drug cartels and foreign European powers to intervene in the western hemisphere, desorying good governance in Mexico, Venezuela, Cuba and other nations in Latin America. By the second year of the DJT administration Venezuela, and the border were brought under control, and the situation in Mexico put in a new direction. ...

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France's Le Monde newspaper reports that the U.S. NSA agency collected 70 million digital communications under codenames "Drtwater" and "Whitewater" during December to January 2013. Communications of Brazilian president Rousseff were intercepted according to other reports about the spying by NSA. This has affected U.S.-Brazil relations. The NSA spying has also included the European Union delegation to the UN, drawing German protests.

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This is an interview with Columbia University economic historian Adam Tooze about the international trade and economic issues brought about by globalization. The rapid emergence of China in manufacturing and overcapacity in steel has led to action on steel tariffs by president Trump. Tooze is typical of opinion that sees action by Trump not as limited action to level the playing field  as proposed by Trade Representative for the U.S., Robert Lighthizer, but as reckless move on trade.  Lyrarc.com shows articles from the WSJ and NYT showing how opinion got to this point in the U.S., on Robert Lighthizer's views that the U.S. was not facing a level playing field, and  on how trade has hurt communities across the U.S. a long distance away from Silicon Valley. President Trump's views reflect a different perspective that says the U.S. has to balance the favorable situation obtained by China and the European Union through moves of its own to protect U.S. interests. Political commentary that the U.S. was starting a trade war is not supported by the facts showing China's response as muted and a willingness by China to negotiate a balanced trading relationship as its trade surplus with the U.S. continues to grow. The trade surplus is so large that the Trump moves do not tell the real story. They are likely to be overshadowed by the increasing value of the U.S. dollar leading to a continued favorable situation for Chinese exports and a larger trade surplus in 2018, regardless of Mr. Trump's action.  Trump's moves are more significant in other areas- limiting China's access to advanced technologies, with the European Union also taking the same action. This is now the new field of competition for the major world economies. ...

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Anne Applebaum of the Washington Post points out that after the faltering campaign of Republican Party nominee Fillon, the only serious candidates remaining in the presidential election in France are Marie LePen of the National Front, and the former Economy minister in the Hollande government, Emmanuel Macron. Macron is now the only person with enough popularity to win over LePen's nationalist movement. Macron launched his En Marche movement in 2016 and his strategy is to bring together the centre right and the centre left moderate voters, and voters who favor remaining in the European Union. Older voters in France unlike that in the U.S. and the UK are favoring candidates other than LePen because they fear the impact on the French economy and their pensions from leaving the European Union. LePen favors holding a referendum to decide whether France should remain in the EU. Macron takes an opposite view fully supporting France's role in the European Union. He has not advocated the huge cuts that Fillon has for job cuts in the public sector, and is able to draw moderate centre left voters to his side. A look at the French presidential election in another piece in the Economist magazine shows that further out one goes from major cities in France there is a surge in the support for the National Front. Moderate parties other than the National Front draw support in most of the major cities and urban areas. Another similarity with the UK and U.S> is that more educated voters support moderate parties other than the National Front. As polls have been proven wrong in other elections it is difficult to know what is likely to happen in this election. Unemployment is high in France at 10% with little change since the election of the Socialist Hollande government. Other issues such as terrorism have unsettled French voters, making this election difficult to predict. Voter dissatisfaction is especially high among younger voters who face a high unemployment rate and stagnant economy. Neither candidate Macron or LePen offers a way out of the low economic growth and lack of new jobs. A lot depends on whether French voters are willing to take the risks of a LePen administration and the further uncertainty from a referendum for leaving the EU which cannot enhance the economic prospects of France.     ...

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The European Commission cuts 15 nation euro area growth forecast for 2008 from 2% to 1.4%. For the 27 nation European Union the forecast is dropping from 1.7% to 1.3%. Link this to discussions at OPEC in Vienna and one can see why the Saudis use the argument that high oil prices can lead to a collapse in demand and a collapse in oil prices not helping consumers or producers, when a stable price that reflects the fragile financial markets in the west would better accomodate both sides.

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Faces in the continuing foreclosure crisis in Spain in 2014 include Xacobo Rodriguez and his mother in Madrid. Foreclosures continued at a high rate in Spain into 2014. The Bank of Spain reports that 38,961 primary residence homes were foreclosed in 2013, a decline of only 1% from 2012. If second residences are included the number of foreclosed house increased by 11% in 2014. This is six years into the housing crisis in Spain with no end in sight. The government has declared a 2 year moratorium on eviction of families that meet hardship criteria- a member of household disabled, expired unemployment benefits, very young children. A Social Housing Fund with 6000 units which provide places to live was created but only a small number of units are given out so far. The social advocacy groups say not enough is being done. The government points out that 90% of houses taken by banks were unoccupied at the time. Bank Association spokesperson says there is an understanding of the depth of the crisis with 6 million people out of work, that action is taken to reduce the stress on homeowners. And point to the data showing only 1% of homes were taken by banks in 2013 of the 6 million home mortages outstanding, with one third of these done with an agreement to have debts erased for the homeowners. Women and immigrants are affected to a larger degree, according to Human Rights Watch. Social housing in Spain is only about 2% of the housing stock making things more difficult, by comparison it is 17% in France, 21% in the UK, 35% in the Netherlands, according to Human Rights Watch. Meanwhile the Spanish government of the Partido Popular under Mr Rajoy, continues a policy of trying to be responsive to the homeowner crisis, and at the same time helping the banking system recover following a $56 billion bailout loan taken by Spain from the European Union. ...

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Roger Mosey who worked as Director of BBC News, left BBC News in 2013 and is now the master of Selwyn College, Cambridge. Here he describes the problems the BBC faces and tasks facing it under its new director general, Tim Davie. Mosey sees the need to move power out of London. He is critical of the way the BBC has tended to narrow in its views and its failure to reflect the sentiment in the whole country for Brexit, attitudes towards the European Union, and also in its failure to reflect the sentiment in favor of Boris Johnson's "Get Brexit Done" stance. In recent coverage Mosey says the BBC has not covered both sides of the story in the taking down of statues of Robert Clive to try to educate readers of who he was what happened and why there are different views on this in Britain, opting instead for following what is popular at the moment. He sees BBC as patronizing ordinary Britons who have views that may not coincide with that of people in London who have views on the hard right or hard left. In his view the best way to lose the rationale for BBC license fee is not to educate people on both sides of the story every time. ...

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Scholz and Grassler of DW.com describe the life and legacy of an exceptional president of Germany and his remarkable life- one who did not shy away from speaking his mind on many issues and was popular with Germans especially in western Germany. He showed emotions and was passionate about freedom and democracy as shown in his final address on the way forward for Germany after the upheavals in the European Union and the refugee crisis. He was influenced by fighting for rights after decades behind the Berlin Wall in a divided Germany. By the time he left office he had also matured and evolved, as shown in the final address that charted a way forward for Germany within a renewed Europe in the face of difficulties.

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Wirecard has filed for insolvency.The $2 billion missing in a bank account for Wirecard is more than all the profits it has made over 10 years. It got off the ground in 2016 after Credit Suisse and Softbank took interest in investing. This report in the WSJ shows the hazy history of the company and the details about the missing money in the bank account in the Philippines. Ernst and Young says it was deceived, and the money did not exist in the accounts, as reported in this video by the WSJ. The billions of dollars invested in companies like Wirecard, WeWork and other companies, could easily have funded the PPE equipment, facial masks, and other healthcare equipment held as a reserve for emergencies such as this pandemic, in any large region such as North America or the European Union.   For every Wirecard there are 10 others in every region of the world. Just in the last month several imploded including a coffee venture copied right off Starbucks each involving losses of billions of dollars. ...

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Germany's Chancellor, Angela Merkel announced that she will not seek reelection. She will finish her term in 2021 and retire from politics. She led the CDU party for 18 years and Germany for thirteen years. She started out as a youth leader in the communist German Democratic Republic shortly before the collapse of the Berlin Wall. After reunification she was given roles in the government by Chancellor Kohl of the CDU, and was favored by Kohl.  During her years in office the CDU moved to the centre adopting some of the policies of the Social Democrats party. Merkel's last two terms were marked by her leadership of the European Union in tackling the debt crisis in Greece and other countries. Her leadership of the CDU was challenged by conservative leaders from Bavaria of the CSU party who had different views than Merkel on immigration and accepting wartime and economic refugees. By the beginning of her current term in office the CDU and the Social Democrats Party which alternated in running Germany in the postwar period had lost support as voters shifted their allegiances to parties on the right such as the AfD opposing immigration, and parties on the left, and to the Greens party advocating environmental issues. One of the main drawbacks during this period were the austerity policies during Merkel's terms in office that were implemented in the EU leading to higher unemployment before a tenuous recovery, and the lack of building infrastructure. The acceptance of a large number of refugees the official tally being about 890,000 entering Germany in 2017 and 200,000 in 2018, has strained the system and created tensions in society. About 480,000 had applied for asylum in Germany by the end of December 2017. Merkel defends her decision to accept refugees in these numbers, yet she says she was wholly unprepared for the influx of refugees that happened in 2017 and the year before. She says she wishes she had many more years experience to prepare herself for handling a crisis of this kind. The decision has created dissension in Germany especially in the eastern part which was part of the former communist German Democratic Republic.  ...

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Who is Nandalal Weerasinghe? This report in The Daily News gives some idea about the man chosen to help Sri Lanka negotiate a deal with the IMF.  Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe was an alternate executive director at the International Monetary Fund before being appointed deputy governor of the Ceylon Central Bank in 2012. Before this he managed several macroeconomic departments at the central bank and was assistant governor of the central bank from 2007 to 2009, He has spent the large part of his career in economic positions at the Central Bank of Ceylon after getting his PhD in economics from the Australian National University. Weerasinghe is the leading expert in macroeconomics from Sri Lanka who has IMF experience. He says "things will get worse before they get better." He retired early from the central bank with a change in government in 2019. He was reappointed as Sri Lanka faced a debt crisis in March 2022 following the two year long pandemic, and the Ukraine war in 2022 that was bad for emerging market economies. Weerasinghe says about the crisis facing Sri Lanka- Recent decisons followed Modern Monetary Theory. This has dire consequences. In recent times the savings brought about by the low tax and interest rate regime passed savings on to the corporate sector and took away spending power from savers and pensioners. Surging inflation made things even worse for the lower income middle class and older parts of society. Years of accumulated debt have brought Ceylon to this point. In Ceylon one is seeing the effects of savings being passed on to the corporate sector in an economy dependent on tourism and remittances from overseas workers, both hit by the two year long pandemic. This is part of  a trend that has hurt emerging market economies from Argentina and Pakistan which also turned to the IMF to Turkey.  In other countries in the European Union savings also passed on to the corporate sector with low tax and low interest rate regime. With high inflation resulting in the cost of living crisis seen today in France and Germany. This type of policy that Weerasinghe calls 'Modern Monetary Theory' is not healthy for the European Union and the US, as these policies led to the neglect of much needed and vital investments in infrastructure, health and education. Only now are these effects being corrected by new administrations of Biden in the US and Scholz in Germany, with Biden's 2 trillion plan for workers and families, and a similar plan from chancellor Scholz. With this come needed investments to tackle climate change, all of which was neglected before. India has taken a different approach. By following good governance, managing vaccination effectively during the pandemic, social emphasis for food, water, electricity, cooking gas, medicine for the vast population of 1.2 billion, and a Master plan for building Made in India manufacturing,  India has avoided such crises and maintained strong economic growth. In this sense it is a model for South Asian, South East Asian, African, and Latin American emerging market economies that face a difficult situation today. Good governance is critical.   ...

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The WSJ provides a fact check of Trump statements on crime, debt, and taxes. Trump says he is looking at a new plan for taxes not the $10 trillion in tax cuts over 10 years reducing tax collection by 22%, but something about a third of the size. No details are available on the plan. WSJ disputes Trump's statement that the U.S. is "one of the highest taxed nations in the world." WSJ points out that the U.S. in 2014 for federal, state and local government taxes collected 26% of gross domestic product in taxes, compared to average of 34% for about 30 countries, according to OECD. Debt to GDP ratio is about 75% that is high, but because of low interest rates the budget deficit is less than 3% of GDP, which is close to the long run average. For this reason economists say the government should invest in infrastructure and R&D that supports long run economic growth. On crime the record is mixed with increase in Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York City, but decreases in Washington D.C. and Baltimore. Police shootings were 67 in 2016 compared to 62 in July 2015, and the high being 280 officers in 1974 when Nixon was President. Crime was an issue in the 1968 Republican National Convention during the Vietnam era protests, police shootings and terror incidents attracted attention in July 2016, yet the situation today is very different from the war protests of the Vietnam era. On terrorism fact checks by the NYT and in Lyrarc shows Clinton at State Department and Panetta at Defense Department taking hawkish stands only to hit a barrier from President Obama for taking action needed in Syria, Iraq and Libya. Panetta's new book calls for robust action where needed. A Clinton administration would take action with allies in the Middle East. Even Hollande and Obama who pulled the U.S. and France out of following up in the French-British Sarkozy-Cameron led intervention in Libya, have changed policy, with Obama calling it his biggest mistake. France under Hollande with the U.S. is now actively engaged in the Middle East, having changed policy. It is highly unlikely that a Trump led policy which alienates most allies in the Middle East- Iran, Iraq and Saudis- is likely to work better than a determined Clinton-Panetta led effort which has support of the local countries on the ground actually currently on both sides because of complexities of Middle Eastern politics.  On trade a new administration will still have to work with China, India, the European Union, and other countries, as global trade supply chains are not likely to evolve overnight. Lessons will have been learned by Clinton about the need to bring back jobs and ensure the strength of U.S. manufacturing. Economic and jobs growth will require prudence in strengthening U.S. manufacturing coupled with global cooperation, which a Trump administration that alienates trading partners without the possibility of making any serious immediate gains in jobs, is highly unlikely to do better.      ...

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Under a new law going into effect on Oct. 1, 2017 and supported by Angela Merkel's government, all social networks will be required to delete within 24 hours "all illegal content." This is an effort to take immediate action against hate speech, libel and other illegal content. Companies could be fined upto $57 million. Germany's Justice Minister Heiko Maas said "we cannot accept that social networks ignore our laws." Mr. Maas says the voluntary effort setup earlier had not worked as the social media companies were too slow. The law now means the networks will devote more resources, with Facebook increasing the staff for this purpose doubling it almost from 4500 to 7500, showing that the problem had not been addressed the way it needed to be. The new law details 22 sections of the criminal code that social networks need to enforce. Including laws banning libel, character defamation, hate speech, insults against religions, offensive statements and privacy violations. Britain's May and France's Macron have also called the efforts of the networks insufficient. A similar law in the U.S. before the 2016 election could have saved the country from many of the problems arising from illegal content being posted, including damage to the image of the U.S., inciting deep divisions, racial tensions, hate rhetoric and defamation leading to coarsening of public dialogue and debate.  During 2016 many European leaders were exposed to hate speech including Angela Merkel. The social networks were slow to respond and did not take their civic duty as seriously as they should have considering the grave damage to the social and political fabric of the U.S. and the European Union countries. The governments also took time to act, studying the problem carefully before taking action leading to further damage, one reason the current legislation was passed quickly and decisively. Experts say other countries will act following the German example to preserve civil dialogue and strengthen democracy. ...

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Lulu Garcia-Navarro interviews Homeland Security head Alejandro Mayorkas and asks him direct questions about the border with Mexico, published Feb 2, 2024 in NYT. Why the surge in migrants asks Navarro. Mayorkas is himself a Cuban born immigrant. Republicans in the House are impeaching Mayorkas. Navarro asks can you clearly say what has gotten us to this place and what went wrong? Clearly something had happened in Latin America. Central America drove migrants north after conflicts in Salvador, in Nicaragua and drought affecting Guatemala's agriculture for over 2 decades under different administrations. Mayorkas says in response to the question that the world is experiencing the largest level of human displacement that it has seen since World War II. He says the entire hemisphere is experiencing the enormous displacement in Venezuela as its economy collapsed. During the nineteenth century after president Monroe put forward the Monroe Doctrine that created a uniquely American sphere that asked European powers to stay away from the Americas north and south, any attempt by European powers was seen as an hostile act. It was American opposition to European colonialism. By the time of the Eisenhower and Kennedy administrations this policy was not followed with the intervention of the Soviet Union in Cuba leading to a a wave of refugees from Cuba in the sixties. In the last decade the situation in Venezuela has worsened to the point that 8 million people have left Venezuela for neighboring nations, 2 million to Colombia alone, destabilizing the southern hemisphere. Venezuelans many from the educated middle class form the bulk of the surge in migrants across the US border with Mexico in 2022 and 2023. The problems were actually exacerbated under the Republican administration as the Venezuelan inflation spiralled after 2016 skyrocketing into hyper inflation by 2018 leading to the flow of immigrants outward that reached 8 million. This kind of hyperinflation the worst in the history of Latin America need not have happened with better managing of the crisis at that time. Mayorkas says the problem is that America's system of asylum is broken and both parties need to fix it. This is proposed by Tillis-Graham and Lankford all Republicans in the US Senate with president Biden's support. When he joined the Department of Homeland Security in 2009 Mayorkas says, US Border Patrol chief told him the real problem was that from the moment a migrant claims asylum at the border under US law and the adjudication of that claim it takes several years. This is the root of the problem the law can be fixed with the will of enlightened persons in both parties by simply passing a new law. Immigrants from Latin America are just as likely to vote Republican as Democratic and this may be particularly true for Venezuela's middle class that left the country as the economy collapsed with policies that led to inflation not seen in this hemisphere.  The other alternative is for the US and both parties to agree to what would be today's version of the Monroe doctrine- then opposing European colonialism, now opposing the breakup from within of Democratic countries in Latin America leading to waves of migration north of the border and causing upheavals all over the western hemisphere. Much less a policy of such resolution both parties have failed to fix basic policies of asylum and parole that today are being addressed by legislation being put together by Senator Lankford of Oklahoma, Lindsay Graham of South Carolina, Senator Tillis of North Carolina, three core states that are Republican since the Civil War, with the help of the White House and Senator Schumer. Yet in the House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson calls it dead on arrival simply refusing to break the status quo. ...

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This report in WSJ says at an event in Germany in 2022 Merkel said that after annexing Crimea in 2014 Putin told her he wanted to destroy the European Union. Yet Merkel did not hesitate to double gas imports from Russia after 2014. Joachim Gauck, president of Germany when Putin invaded Ukraine in 2014 says Merkel's decision to boost energy imports from Russia after that aggression was surely a mistake. Gauck stated "some people recognize their mistakes earlier, some later. Her decisions for over concentration of Germany's manufacturing in China led to a similar situation with China that is only now beginning to unravel. The two decisions overconcentration of energy dependence on Russia and manufacturing dependence with overconcentration in China have had interwoven effects and shows Merkel did not grasp the implications and dangers of overconcentration or excessive dependence on any one country. Merkel instead doubled gas imports from Russia and had the Nord Stream 2 pipeline built at a time when Germany was already 55% dependent on Russian imports of energy. She moved too quickly to phase out nuclear energy completely after Fukushima accident leading to Russian gas imports rapidly increasing. When leaving office she said LNG which Germany has now used to replace Russian gas from places such as Norway to Qatar under efforts of Deputy chancellor Habeck was a third more costly.  It could be said that with her sheltered upbringing in the more affluent sections of Communist East Germany's, the GDR's, educational sector, Merkel had such limited exposure to the world that when she emerged as Kohl's preferred choice in ministry positions she was headed for the chancellorship without the right qualifications for leadership. When one considers the experience of an Konrad Adenauer or a Willy Brandt through the World War II years, Merkel's experience for the chancellorship not only pales by any comparison, but also shows significant limits of comprehension and sound or right thinking of the issues facing Germany and the world in the twentieth and twenty first century. ...

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The expected EU turnout in 2024 is at a high of 68 percent. Over the years since its formation the early enthusiasm and vision was replaced by dry directives issued by bureaucrats in Brussels leading to lethargy. 1979's 62 percent voter turnout contrasts with 2014's 48% voter turnout. Boris Johnson, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin have each in their way created new surge of interest in EU and the parliament in Strasbourg, says Caroline Gruyter from her conversations in France, Switzerland, Netherlands, Czech Republic. Today 74% of EU citizens polled say they support the European Union. Similar numbers even in the UK as Labor party is about to come back in a big way.  What happened? The war in Ukraine, Russia and NATO, US and NATO, the UK drift back to EU in sentiment, Italy's conservative parties called Right wing are supporting the EU under Meloni. Another reason for the sense of EU coming back to life comes from my visit to Germany, where after decades of disinvestment in infrastructure the rail station in Frankfurt is being rebuilt and new infrastructure is being built all over the city. Posters all over Frankfurt for EU parliament elections show a new spirit for Respect for workers, working families, and a sense that the FDP, SPD, CDU and Greens can take the decisions to give new vigor to the German democratic process.    ...

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The declining support inside the EU and in Turkey for Turkey's joining the European Union. Only 20% inside the EU support Turkey's entry in the EU and only 44% inside Turkey, according to a Germn Marshall Fund survey in 2013. As recently as 2004 73% of Turks supported joining the European Union. The EU officials are trying to revive discussions on entry as a way to get the Erdogan administration in Turkey to commit to democratization, respect for the opposition and protesters, and a way to coordinate regional policy in the Middle East.

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This editorial in The Economist magazine points out that the doggedness of prime minister Theresa May now looks like pig-headedness. The crisis is of poor leadership. It also exposes two deeper problems in the Leave campaigns distorted message that it is possible for Britain to leave the EU, "to take back control" without making it harder to for British business and the economy to trade with its partners in Europe. It also exposes concerns of democracy that see the referendum as the only message from the people- the general election of 2017 brought Conservatives to power without a majority in parliament changing the picture about the referendum's message. Particularly since the referendum Leave campaign presented a distorted  message leaving out what the cost would be for Britain.  Ejection from the single market, decline of industy from finance to carmaking, destablisation of Northen Ireland peace agreement, exit bill of 50 bill euros was not advertised in the Leave campaign. Buses with posters of immigrants streaming across borders in Europe presented an emotional message recklessly sold to voters. Representing the will of the people can be claimed now by all sides, says the Economist. Leaving Europe on March 29 deadline with no deal would be bad for Europe and economic upheaval for Britain. Discerning the will of the people should not be the work of squabbling MP's or backbenchers in parliament. The only practical and sensible way out of this mother of all messes is to go back to the people and get a new opinion with broad daylight thrown on the realities facing Britain.   ...