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Nossiter of the NYT describes the growing popularity of Nicolas Sarkozy in France as he tries to regain the presidency. Sarkozy's book, which has placed the importance of preserving France's identity as the main question in the upcoming general election, has climbed to the top of a popular best seller list. With weakness on the right in local elections, Mayor Juppe of Bordeaux and Francois Hollande appearing content with the status quo, Sarkozy hopes to gain the support of voters dissatisfied with the way France is tackling terrorism and its sense of identity as a predominantly Catholic and Christian country. France's political scene which makes it harder for outsiders to break into politics is likely to help Sarkozy, says Nossiter. The other factor is the campaigning style of Sarkozy and projection of strong leadership- which may be more attuned to the present voter sentiment shaken by terrorism than it was in the last election when he was seen as arrogant and self-centred. Sarkozy also lost the last election because of the economy, something that has not improved under Hollande, more likely because the economy takes many years to change to a pattern of growth following a crisis and beyond the control of any particular party. ...

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U.S. airline stocks surged in 2014. Energy stocks crashed in the 4th quarter of 2014 losing over 30% of their value as oil inventories surged. Russia and Greece were the worst performing countries with losses over 30% for funds in these countries. India stock funds returns exceeded 30%. High yield bonds performed badly, with higher returns on investment grade assets. Apple continued growth following the introduction of the iPhone 6, with the stock value growing by 38% in 2014.

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Lina Nilsson, the innovation director of the Blum Center for Developing Economies at the Universityof California, Berkeley, says female engineers are attracted to programs and research that focusses on achieving societal needs and goals, humanitarian projects, and meeting the special needs of developing economies. Better engineering that helps people improve lives attracts the involvement of women. She cites enrollment at the Blum Center for Developing Economies programs, PhD. minors in development engineering at UC Berkeley, undergraduate international minors at University of Michigan, the D-Lab at M.I.T., humanitarian engineering programs at Arizona State University, University of Minnesota, Penn State, Santa Clara University, Princeton's Engineers Without Borders chapters and clubs, where women's enrollment exceeds that of men. She contrasts this with the low numbers of women engineers in general- less than 20% of tech engineers at Google and Apple, and less than 14% in the U.S. workforce. Her advice- make work meaningful to society and women will enroll in large numbers, not just in computer engineering, also in mechanical and chemical engineering....

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Capital inflows into banks in Cyprus in the form of demand deposits accelerated in 2008 after it appeared that the banking system in Ireland was having serious problems. About $40.7 billion of capital inflows went into Cyprus in the form of loans and demand deposits in 2008, 161% of the GDP of the country, according to the McKinsey Global Institute. Cyprus became the place for hot money from other countries because of the higher interest rates on euros and the lax banking laws.

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A open conversation with the NYT's Baker, Schmidt and Haberman by president Trump in mid July 2017. This conversation of the president with the NYT is remarkable for its frankness about people close to the president during the election campaign, particularly Jeff Sessions of Alabama. Sessions was the only leading Senator in Congress who supported Mr. Trump from the beginning. Southern states came out heavily for Mr. Trump as part of the traditional Republican base. Trump says of Sessions that had he known Sessions was going to recuse himself from the Russia investigation he would not have appointed Sessions as the new Attorney General. About Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein Trump says he should never have appointed Mueller as Special Counsel. The president also says Mueller should stay only with information related to Russia and not stray from that to delve into Trump's finances. During the election efforts were made to get Mr. Trump to disclose more about his finances as a real estate businessman- most of these efforts failed and not much is known about president Trump's finances. The president says he never said he would order the Justice Department to fire Mr. Mueller, yet he left open this possiblility, according to the NYT, as the president feels it has affected the first 6 months of the Trump presidency. This interview with president Trump was published on July 20, 2017, the day after an editorial in the WSJ by the Editorial Board of the Journal on July 19, 2017, calling for transparency from president Trump on the Russia investigation. This was an exceptional and powerful editorial by its editorial board telling president Trump that he must tell everything he knows now or face the risk of losing public confidence, and risk his presidency. It said that president Trump was wrong to think that his larger than life personality and social media role could insulate him from the effects of this lack of transparency. ...

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China's GDP growth accelerated slightly to 6.9 percent in the 1st quarter of 2017, after five consecutive quarters of GDP growth at 6.7-6.8%, according to government data. This reflected larger use of steel in the construction industry and more mortgages issued by the state controlled banking sector. Government officials say productivity is improving helping GDP growth, with closing of less efficient manufacturing plants. Industrial production increased 7.6% in March 2017, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The government is trying to control higher lending and reduce the backlog of bad loans at banks. Higher growth helps to reduce the bad loans at banks from the earlier period after 2008 financial crisis, improving financial stability.

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The Bank of International Settlements warns that China's "credit to GDP gap" is 30.1. A figure of 10 normally is considered to be high and needs watching. The People's Daily carried an article presumably by president Xi Jinping warning about the consequences of the debt that had been growing "like a tree in the air." The debt to GDP ratio was at 255% at the end of 2015, and is up 107% since 2008 when the financial crisis led to a huge stimulus that has accelerated debt growth. The corporate debt is at 171% of GDP. The article in the People's Daily warned about reflexive stimulus every time growth slows and said that China cannot any longer "force economic growth by levering up." Cross border liabilities is one area of progress falling by a third to $698 billion, as companies cut debt quickly before the U.S. Federal Reserve raises rates. In the future China is more likely to roll over debt as Japan had done following its debt surge and bad debt with zombie companies, which would in turn lead to lower growth. In the past the government was able to absorb the growing debt because it was not as high as it is today, and the economy was growing rapidly. This is no longer the situation, the reason for alarm at the situation facing China. A spike in interest rates of 250 basis points is cited as one situation which could affect China adversely. ...

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The dangers to China's economy and banking system from the large number of bad loans at the local level. Difficulties of absorbing bad loan losses by the central government as new loan losses are piled on top of previous loan losses from earlier efforts to tide over bad loans. Considering all nonperforming loans that may end up as sovereign debt China's national debt is upwards of 80% of GDP, say Walter and Howie. The lack of any serious change in policies, inability to control lending for state enterprises and local governments, the tax on savings with low interest rates which keeps down domestic consumption, and the absence of a serious discussion on these issues leaves China exposed to higher systemic risk from excessive financial leverage.

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Regulators from the S.E.C., the FDIC, the Federal Reserve and the CFTC, defend the plan to implement the Volcker Rule in Jan 2012 hearings before the House Committee on Financial Services of the U.S. Congress.

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Local investment companies were allowed to borrow beyond their limits after the financial crisis of 2008. There are about 8000 local investment companies (LIC's) and they were used during 2008-2010 to get funds quickly to projects. The LIC's borrowed for local governments, and borrowed extensively to build roads, railroads, power plants, and other infrastructure and buildings. Northwestern University Professor Shih has followed this carefully, and estimates LIC debt owed to banks at $1.68 trillion, or 34% of China's GDP. Some of the banks have collateral in land, but many banks are relying on the ability of the local governments to pay back the loans. And some of this is in money losing projects.

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Adding in local government debt to central government debt, railways, asset management companies and state owned banks, gives a better picture of total debt for China. This is an estimated $3.55 trillion or close to 59% of GDP compared to 93% for the U.S. The problem is no one really knows how much debt there is in the local government in China. Analysts say this understates nonperforming loans from China's lending binge after the 2008 financial crisis. Stephen Green of Standard Chartered Bank estimates China's total debt, including contingent liabilities, to be 77% of GDP. Arthur Kroeber of Dragonomics estimates it at 75%. China's Banking Regulatory Commission estimates that investment vehicles that have local government guarantees borrowed $1.17 trillion in 2009 and the first half of 2010. Century Weekly, a leading financial magazine, estimates this to be $1.52 trillion at the end of 2010. The large local government debt limits the ability of China's central bank to raise rates to control inflation, as every increase in rates increases the local government debt. For the U.S., excluding debt owed by one part of the government to another, such as Social Security, would bring U.S. debt to 62.2%. This would'nt include the debts of local and state governments, overhaul of Fannie and Freddie, or liabilities to pay future retirement and health benefits....

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Paul Volcker before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee on May 9, 2012, before the announcement of the $2 billion trading losses by J.P. Morgan Chase. The following day Chase announced the losses from trades made by JP Morgan trader Bruno Iksil- nicknamed the "London Whale"- who made a complex hedge on a group of corporate bonds, betting $100 billion that the bonds would not default. The Volcker rule as it is currently written would not prevent such a transaction. The problem as Volcker pointed out before the Banking Committee is that under "too big to fail," "the losses would be socialized with the potential gains all private."