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Industrial and Commerical Bank of China (ICBC) plans to make a push to go global with increasing foreign presence. The largest bank in China, ICBC plans to increase the number of countries it has operatons in from 28 to 50 in 2012-2014 period. ICBC chairman Jiang Jianqing says ICBC is well on its way to becoming a global bank.

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Harry Markovitz who invented Portfolio Theory and won the Nobel Prize in 1990 on the economic crisis and solutions. His idea in portfolio theory is that you reduce risk by creating a portfolio of uncorrelated assets. Owning GM and Ford together is more risky because they are correlated. The securities owned by banks were not not portfolio type with uncorrelated risk, they were all of one type in the mortgage securties industry. He goes to the heart of the problem saying until all these securities are scrutinized and underlying mortgagesare scrutinized, sorted out down to the individual zip code level, and this is not as complicated as it seems given the amount of resources that can be thrown at this problem, and given what is at stake, and they are striped of their lack of transparency, the country and the global economies that are intertwined with America's problems cannot see a solution to this problem. And this is true for the banks like Bank of America and Chase and the government run banks like the FDIC Indymac bank, where only a small fraction of homeowners can be helped with loan modifications to make monthly payments affordable, as a big part of the mortgage loans they hold or service are in the form of mortgage securtities where they don't make the decisions. Unless mortgage securities are sorted out to restore transparency and the government steps in with help and mandates a direction, the foreclosure process will lead to dropping property prices and further deterioration and economic stagnation similiar to the experience of Japan. Markovitz says it could take a year to do this. He says "the valuation process will take as long as takes, but it is the primary step toward effectively utilizing the very controversial bailout and avoiding the structural problem of a stagnant economy." Writes Gordon Crovitz of WSJ, "to put the issue in probability terms, the odds are very remote and nonexistent that the economy can recover until these basic steps are taken."...

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The World Bank annual report on development focuses on agriculture as the means to reducing poverty in Africa and Asia, with the poorest farmers in Africa, South Asia and parts of China

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This report in the WSJ says Silicon Valley Bank grew too fast on borrowed money and its risks were lurking in plain sight. The Guardian reports that the bank lobbied heavily spending half a million dollars to avoid regulation. The lobbying worked says the Guardian leaving huge gaps in regulation even after the 2009 financial crisis.

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Bank of America's 40,000 layoffs planned under "Project New BAC" reduces positions mostly in the consumer business, which employs 160,000 people. Bank of America employed 288,000 workers as of June 30, 2011.

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Private credit market has grown to $2 trillion in 2025 in 10 years  reaching $3.5 trillion in 2028 yet remains unregulated. Private credit is when investment funds such as Blackstone and Apollo, others, loan money to large companies. After the 2009 financial crisis bank regulation was tightened so that riskier loans were kept off the banks books to avoid another financial crisis. This led to the private credit market as a source of loans for small companies.Over 10 years the loans are now going to large companies and it is growing fast. As is typical in the capitalist economies regulation falls behind new financial developments or tech developments. Congress is always playing catchup and is distracted by other issues or has lobbyists asking for less regulation.  This report in the WSJ says when companies like Blackstone have private credit loans of $260 billion this can pose substantial risks for the US economy when this area of lending has no regulation as is required for a modern economy to function correctly. Private credit offers returns of 14-16% for these funds with risks associated and regulators are not asked to set the required rules. It only makes bank regulation ineffective as lending goes to unregulated parts of the economy. ...

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The Fed's Term Asset Backed Loan Facility (TALF), by which the Fed would give money to banks on very favorable terms to loan out to others including hedge funds who would go out and buy consumer loan backed securities, has barely made it off the ground. Its vital if consumer loan markets for everything from cars to other products is to get off the ground. The large layoff and job losses are a result of the lack of credit to finance purchases creating unneeeded manufacturing capacity, with the ensuing job losses only exacerbating sales. Investors worried about defaults have stayed away from consumer loan backed securities. The figures tell the story. According to Dealogic only $3 billion of these asset backed securities were sold in Jan-Feb 2009, down from $1 trillion in 2006. The TALF has alimit of $200 billion for the early stage, but could grow to $1 trillion as more asset classes are added. There are only about 10 deals in progress but most of them are on hold. Nissan Ford Credit and Huntington Bank are preparing to sell securties backed by car buyers. The outcry over bonuses at AIG, makes investors wary of public outcry if they were to profit unduly from the TALF, and hedge funds don't like some of the language in the agreements they have to sign with the gbanks and the Fed that would have them liable for losses, and by stimulus legislation that restricts use of foreign workers....

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The economics situation in Eastern Europe is looking much better now after the recovery of confidence in the USA and Western Europe with stimulus measures and other steps to ease credit, and the decision at the G20 summit in London in early 2009 to provide a strong line of credit to emerging market economies struggling in this crisis. The European Bank for Reconstruction ad Development sees a 5.2% drop in GDP in 2009 over 2008, and the IMF 4.9% for Eastern European economies. The region varies country by country, with GDP decline forecast for 2009 over the prior year by the IMF showing a modest decline of 0.7% for Poland which is doing well, Czech Republic 3.5%, Hungary 3.3%, Bulgaria 2%. Other countries Lithuania 10%, Ukraine 8% and Russia at 6% decline in GDP for 2009 are hit hardest but thing there are also improving compared to last quarter. The stock market in Poland went up by 40% since the low in February 2009, Hungary by 50%, and Russia by nearly 90%, reflecting this increased confidence. A big difference is in the way the IMF under Dominique Strauss Kahn is operating. WIth the new mandate to help emerging market countries and the new funds from western countries, China and Japan, the IMF is working in cooperation with the European COmmission, the banks, and the national governments in Eastern Europe, to lessen the effects of this crisis. This is afirst for the IMF and aremarkable change. In May 2009 the IMF gave a$21 billion credit line to Poland with no strings attached , the kind of loan it made to Mexico, as aproactive measure to restore confidence. IMF told the Ukraine that a deficit of 4% of GDP was realistic when it released a $2.8 billion tranche recently. Latvia was allowed to run adeficit of 7% for 2009, with a committment to bring this down to 4% in 2010. Another change is that more aid is now given to western banks with souring loans in eastern Europe, so that these banks do not cut back severely or pull out of Eastern European economies. The EBRD has raised $24.5billion to lend to banks and other companies in the region. And $590 million went to UniCredit Italia, an Italina bank heavily exposed to Eastern Europe. Ther EBRD is looking at investing in 12 other western European banks. The Swedes have national schemes too to help the Baltic countries. The political situation is improving also, as the transition to new administration as aresult of voter discontent is being managed wisely. In the Czech Republic acompetent tranisiton government is headed by Jan Fischer, chief statistician, till elections in October 2009. In Hungary the transition government is run by an economist Gordon Bajnai, till an election next spring....

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No limits (upto 100% ownership) for foreign banks in India's mortgage lending financial institutions. Citigroup takes 13% stake in HDFC, India's largest mortgage lender. India has an average of $90 per household of mortgage balance compare with China $500, and Thailand close to $1500, showing the potential for lending growth in the housing market as incomes rise.

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Hidden debt is a problem for Evergrande, says this report in the WSJ.  The Chinese housing developer faced action by banks seizing over $2 billion in cash held by its property service unit as security for third party pledge guarantees. The hidden debt problem also affects other Chinese housing developers.

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good third of the regional banks won't make it he says and this is around the corner in 2009.

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Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, turned down proposals to let European central banks send money to troubled European governments through the IMF. Draghi said- "we should't try to circumvent the spirit of the treaty, no matter what the legal trick is." The ECB also opposes large government bond buying to bring down yields on Italian and Spanish government bonds. The ECB by majority vote reduced interest rates in the eurozone by 0.25%, bringing interest rates down to 1%, and reversing rate increases under the previous president Trichet. It also made medium term funding available to European banks on better terms. According to a person in the room, German Chancellor Merkel opened the summit saying Germany opposes a plan to let the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) borrow from the ECB. The ESM is the bailout mechanism for future bailouts.

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Unrestrained lending by state owned banks, corruption and cronyism, have led to an increase in non-performing loans and bad debt. Slovenia's government banks made extensive loans for leverged management buyouts of state owned companies in the period 2000-2010. Loans for construction projects also soured, with the capital Ljubljana having many unfinished construction sites. Bad debt at the banks is estimated at 6.8 billion euros, or 19% of Slovenia's GDP, larger than the 16% of GDP for bad debt in Spain. The anti-corruption agency reports large amounts of undisclosed income for the head of the outgoing government, and the outgoing leader of the opposition party who was Mayor of Ljubljana. An election law that requires an endorsement from members of parliament for people seeking to contest elections for the first time makes it difficult to bring new faces and thinking into parliament.

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Alex Frangos and Sudeep Jain's interview with Duvvuri Subbarao, the governor of the Reserve Bank of India, India's central bank. India's economy is slowing with higher inflation, higher interest rates, inability of the government to make firm decisions on foreign investment, a declining currency, and a growing deficit. Subbarao has come under criticism for keeping interest rates low for too long after the 2008 financial crisis, and then as higher inflation persisted making a number of interest rate increases in 2011, which reduced the credit flows in the Indian economy. Subbarao's defense of his policy of not acting earlier on interest rates and then raising interest rates repeatedly, is that the economy need stimulus in the years after the global financial crisis. He says the inflation in the early stages was a result of a supply shock in food prices and would not have responded to interest rate adjustments. Inflation declined from 9.1% in November 2011 to 7.5% in December. Subbarao says the interest rate increases are over and he is looking for the right time to increase credit flows in the economy. His remaining concerns are with the fiscal deficit, and he called on the finance minister to map out what he plans to do for the fiscal deficit. He expects the deficit for the current fiscal year to increase from 4.6% to 5.5%, as the cost of fuel subisides rises and tax receipts decline. He calls for the removal of subsidies on liquified natural gas and electricity, but concedes that this will be difficult in an election year. Looking back Subbarao sense is that the central bank's policy actions were well calibrated....

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The largest holder of America's debt is not China. It is Japan with holdings by banks, insurers and pension funds of $1.1 trillion of US debt. This is important with the growing borrowing of the US government to fund infrastructure and clean energy, services. This investment is growing after slowing during the pandemic. Much of it is done not for earnings gains but with hedging in financial markets to reduce exchange rate risk.

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Stephens of NYT shows the effects of zero interest rates in shifting trillions of dollars of wealth away from the middle and lower classes in America. Zero interest rates in 2009 were a response to a financial crisis created by the irresponsible behaviour of Banks and financial firms in the US. The loss of manufacturing and shipping of jobs overseas added to the effects of zero interest rates in increasing poverty and deprivation in the US.

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Faiola points to public opinion in Ireland that shows the recovery in Ireland looks better on paper than it really is. Opinion polls show a large gap between the views of the government and of people in Ireland. EU estimates of growth in GDP of about 1% is inflated by profits of multinational companies such as eBay, Facebook and Google, a large part of which is repatriated. The multinational companies employ only 7% of the workforce. In reality consumer spending, retail sales and bank lending have suffered, and unemployment is at 14%. The feeling in Ireland is that the austerity cuts alone- spending cuts, higher sales and property taxes- with no effort to support growth, will leave the country in this situation for many years. A ruling by Ireland's attorney general that a referendum is required for approval of the new EU agreement on fiscal discipline, means that a referendum wll be held in June 2012. In 2001 and 2008 Ireland rejected EU treaties, only to obtain concessions and approve the treaty in second referendums. This time the referendum is expected to be seen as a vote on the three year agreement reached by Ireland with the EU, the IMF, and ECB in 2010, as its banks were on the verge of collapse in a property bubble. That agreement imposed strict austerity measures. Under the treaty terms only 12 of 17 EU countries have to ratify the treaty. The Socialist candidate in upcoming French presidential elections, Mr. Hollande, has called for renegotiation of the fiscal treaty to include measures to promote growth. For young people in particular, immigration- to Australia, New Zealand, Canada- is looking like an attractive option. For new graduates jobs are scarce, and cuts in university subsidies mean additional out of pocket costs of over $8000 a year with no student loan options....

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Bank of Korea's senior deputy governor, Lee Ju-yeol, says he feels "heavy resposibility" for the policies pursued by S. Korea's central bank in the years following the financial crisis of 2008, when inflation fighting efforts of the bank were set aside to focus on growth. Inflation has increased in S. Korea in recent years. He said our "hard won reputation was turned away under the current of globalization and reform... values and rules that have been built up over 60 years were denied in just a single day."

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Russian economy is faltering under the strain of the global financial crisis. The stock market is plunging, with the RTS Index down 19% on October 6, 2008, and the market down 60% since the high in May, 2008. Construction spending is winding down. Th economy growth rate was 8.1% in 2007 but its slipping. If oil prices hit $50 and they were already at $78 on October 10, 2008, then says Anders Aslund at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, there will be a sharp decline in the growth rate. Moscow analysts say the growth rate could drop to 4%. For Americans Russia may seem remote excpt for investors. But in a global economy there are connections to emerging markets and Russia is one big emerging market, next to China, India and Brazil. When General Motors shares dropped 31% and Ford's 22% on one day on October 9, 2008, the news that spooked the markets was ofcourse a credit watch and questions about liquidity from Standard and Poors rating agency, but alsoimportant was that the one bright spot for GM and Ford in Europe and in Russia in particular was disappearing as GM sales declined in Europe and in Russia. In the prior 12 months GM had seen sales jump by 40% in Russia giving it 10% of a car market that passed Germany recently as the largest car market in Europe. Couple of important things about Russia. Russians today are big spenders, savings are small and Russians do not trust their banks so bank deposits are very low. Household deposits are equivalent of 17% of GDP, compared with 45% in the USA. Only 4% of Russians trust commercial banks according to a poll by National Financial Research Agency in Moscow. So Russia depends on the outside world for much odf the cash flowing through its financial system. Foreigners purchased two thirds of the $170 billion in bonds isued by Russian companies and foreign banks put up half of the accumulated $900 billion in bank loans including almost all longterm debt estimates Moscow investment bank Troika Dialog. With global credit markets in a lockdown mode Russia is simply running short of cash. The government has $560 billion in foreign exchange reserves from years of high oil prices plus $160 billion in two sovereign wealth funds with most of this money in fixed income securities abroad as a rainy day cushion should oil prices tumble. On October 7 the governmet announced $36 billion in emergency loans to Russian banks following earlier pledges in September of $150 billion in loans and relief for Russian companies in danger of defaulting on international debts. One danger here is that about 55% of outstanding corporate loan are of maturity less than 1 year. One of Russia's largest developers Mirax Group is putting 50 projects on hold as bank financing for developers has almost ceased. On the other hand Russia's financial sector is relatively small and the credit crisis cannot hurt Russia as much as it will USA ad Europe. Bank loans account for 10% of corporate finance and the bond market is only a decade old, so about half of all capital investment by companies comes from retained earnings. And Russia has huge needs for investments in infrastructure after years of underinvestment, a stable political structure, an educated workforce, and an economy that is just getting started. As Secretary Paulson answered questions after the G7 meeting October 10, this was another point on the minds of the secretary and questoners, the hope that emerging markets like Russia, India, and China would continue to grow though slower than before, even as the US and Europe slipped into a long recession, and provide a little cushion to the global economy....

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Achieving net zero emissions by 2050 will require huge amounts of capital. One estimate is $131 trillion. Where will it come from. The UN Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero says financial groups with assets of $130 trillion have committed to its program to cut emissions. This WSJ report says that is enough scale to generate $100 trillion through 2050 to fund the investments needed for new technologies and provide the finance for companies to restructure themselves in a new world.  The question is how much of this is real as banks, insurers, pension funds and private investor groups are only now taking on the task of restructuring the finance industry. It was not even addressed during the 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change talks. For this to be truly transformative and the transformative changes to take place governments have a critical role in requiring a common standard for reporting and measuring climate change progress. Government regulatory action and oversight is essential for timely and rapid action to take place. Financial regulators, including the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have agreed to add their own oversight through reviews and disclosure standards. The problem is that private sector plans are not concrete. Data is non existent or inconsistent and measurement is not taking place across all of the financial sector on key parameters. The UN has limited power to enforce rules. Who will act to ensure decisions are taken, progress measured after standards are set, transparency set, and how can governments deliver on each step through 2030 ensuring the transformation of the financial sector so that the decisions are taken according to a master plan for climate change in the US, UK, European Union, and India.   ...