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Karishma Vaswani of the BBC points out that most of China's economic growth came with the shift to a market economy made by Deng Xiaoping in 1979, when he announced that China would follow a program of "socialism with Chinese characteristics." By comparison the 19th Party Congress is more about stabilization, preserving the gains made so far after Deng's opening up of the economy to foreign investment and technological collaboration. The placing of thought of Xi Jinping into the Chinese Constitution is more about setting a path of stable direction by the Communist Party than of major changes. The gains in the economy have come with some costs that will have to be addressed by an aging society. Particularly the problems of air and water pollution that other economies in Asia and Latin America following their own development paths would now strive to avoid. An anti-corruption drive was part of this effort for stable direction as the problems of debt to GDP ratio of close to 270% with an aging society remain to be tackled. There is still a large gap between the upper middle class and the rest of China as a result of the rapid growth. In this sense Jinping's effort at the 19th Party Congress is more about restoring the credibility of the Chinese Communist Party as China tackles the next stage of growth needed to catch up with Japan or South Korea. ...

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The initial information of 4 million records affected by the hacking into records at the Office of Personnel Management of the U.S. government is now shown as a serious underestimate. The agency now says 19.7 million who were given a background check, and an additional 1.8 million people are affected. The agency now says there were separate incidents of hacking with this incident separate from the other incident for 4.2 million records hacked, both perpetrated by the same hackers. The two hackings are reported to be from China. A security official at the department of Homleland Security, says the access to the personnel records was made through the use of the credentials of a contractor which were available to the hackers.

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By lifting all covid restrictions China makes a dramatic U turn in December 2022 from its zero covid policies. This Guardian editorial looks at the implications of the new policy. Testing booths are being dismantled. Quarantine rules and travel restrictions are significantly relaxed. The primary covid tracking app is scrapped.  The turnaround is truly astonishing in its speed says The Guardian. Because older people are less vaccinated than in other countries and the smaller effectiveness of domestic vaccines this still has risks when it is being done so suddenly that the health system has little time to prepare.

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Almost all countries have lower commissions for real estate sales. In the US about 3-4 houses are sold over a lifetime. At 6% commission this amounts to a cost of 25% of the sale price of these homes. This adds to the cost of living for American people and reduces their savings for investment in quality of food, education, health and leisure activities. By comparison in the UK it is 1.3%, in Netherlands 2%, in China 2.5%. In most countries only 33% of sales are done by buyer agents in the US 89%, in the UK less than 5%.

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How did it come to this the 125% US tariff on China? China thinks it is it's success. American companies have deindustrialized the US taking out it's manufacturing by shipping it overseas destroying the American middle class and working class.  An insult to the American worker whose pride and dignity and efforts rebuilt the world after the Second World War helping Europe and Japan, China, rebuild. Pouille and Thibault of Le Monde of France look at how China advanced in the years 2004 to 2024 and surged from 9% of industrial production in the world to 29% more than US, Japan, Germany and India combined.   This is also the period of three wars Iraq and Afghanistan and Syria and two presidents Bush and Obama 16 years in which the US took its eyes of the ball and let this situation take hold, which would inevitably lead to a response from the US which started with US president DJT in 2016 and is now in its 10th year. Having failed to limit the China 2025 Plan so that there is no overconcentration of manufacturing in the world disproportionately affecting the rest of the world. The consequences for the rest of the world are clear to see with the 1.7 billion people in India and Indonesia who were late in industrialization by 10-15 years compared to China, the deindustrialization of Europe and the US as this enters its final stages leading to the fissures in the societies of Europe and the US, the destruction of the middle class. ...

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Indonesia is a country with a long history of Hindu and Buddhist culture before conversion to Islam through traders from Malaysia and Sufi saints in the sixteenth and seventeenth century. Hanuman and other deities from India are also part of the existing culture and traditions. Communist influence has been alien to this culture and tradition as in India. It was part of the Dutch empire in the east and a source of European trade in spices from the seventeenth century. It is also a extensive island chain of Java, Sumatra and other islands with a population of 280 million very closely linked to India culturally and with links to America since independence. Indonesia was given a great deal of importance during the Cold War with Robert Kennedy and other leaders visiting Indonesia during the period after Sukarno in the sixties. By 2000 the US engagement with China had evolved to the point that neglected India, Indonesia and the entire south east Asian region in a preference for links with China.  The British division of India led to the US links with India and Indonesia being shaped by that division and the Cold War with Russia. The confusion of the struggle against colonial rule of the British and Dutch led to leaders such as Nehru and Sukarno who compounded the difficulties of the Cold War and perpetuated with it the old British idea of a divided South Asia on a religious basis that had supported British rule and set the conditions that made it possible for a small group of English civil servants to run the country. This led to the Indian and Indonesian relationship with the US being stifled as the US struggled to rid itself of the British obsession with a divided India. Culturally India and Indonesia are part of an extended region in Asia with development aspirations and a youthful population that aspires to better infrastructure, better education, healthcare and ease of living, and the better opportunities in life. This is what migration did for Europeans who left for America for a new life on the east coast and on the prairies of America. It has little to do with the obsessions of the British and the Dutch that divided the region between the Indus and the Ganges and divided the Indonesian islands. That phase is now coming to an end as China reverts to its Communist period leadership under a new generation led by Mr. Jinping, a son of one of the veterans of the Communist Revolution of 1949. The US has to evolve its relations with India, Indonesia, Vietnam and other countries into new ties of trade, culture and technological exchange. This is needed as it winds down its close trade relations with China in its supply chain to rebuild a new supply chain after the trade wars and the pandemic revealed the deep flaws of that supply chain. What is needed is not the efforts of one changing adminstration after another, but an effort started by president Biden that will last through different administrations as the US engages with Asia in the way that it engaged with Europe after FDR and Truman for most of the twentieth century. And one that rids itself of the obsessions of divided regions from the colonial period of the Dutch and the British. The1.6 billion people in India and Indonesia share a  common aspiration of being a major part of the Free World with America. ...

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The new set of sanctions imposed by the United Nations on North Korea would mean the loss of about $1 billion from exports. China's support was won by delaying sanctions on Chinese banks that do business with North Korea. The sanctions prohibit all exports of iron ore, coal, and seafood. Exports of coal to China have come down from earlier efforts, the new restrictions will tighten the sanctions. Two areas that remain are the remittances of Korean workers overseas, for which a limit is set, and the Chinese crude oil exports to North Korea. Experts say this leaves some areas untouched. Chinese banks are critical to North Korea's access to foreign exchange, and oil imports from China are also critical.

 

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A ban on foreigners buying homes in Canada by the Trudeau government is intended to put a lid on house price increases. Immigration is increasing to Canada as Canada needs more people. About 3.5 million new homes have to be built in Canada to achieve house affordability for all. The government has proposed 465,000 new permanent residents in 2023 and 500,000 in 2025. Immigration from India and China and other Asian countries is the main source of permanent residents. The new infusion is needed as Canada's economy grows.

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China's retail sales were up 10% in March. The economy expanded 4.5% the first quarter of 2023 over the prior year and is dependent on consumers spending in the domestic economy. Over the prior quarter growth was 2.2%. Investment in buildings, fixed assets and machinery declined by 0.2% over the prior month, in real estate over the prior quarter it declined by 5.8%. The recovery is a rebound from three years of weak consumer spending during the pandemic as Chinese people went out- traveled and went out shopping. 

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China build its solar industry with huge subsidies, the US did not. From 2018 to 2022 the US solar industry suffered with lack of help from the US government under the Trump administration and the first year of the Biden administration. 30 US based solar companies shutdown in a bloodbath and many jobs were lost. Enter the climate law in 2022 under president Biden and in 2023 the US investment in solar reached $8 billion, three times what it was in the previous 6 years. 

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The President of the American Chamber of Commerce, Harley Seyedin, says that the days when migrant workers did not know their rights, labor laws were not enforced, and factory owners could keep wages low, are gone. With 787 million mobile phone users and 384 million Internet users- which includes migrant workers who can now get the news about the latest developments, send messages, video, and access the internet. For its part the government made serious effort to create awareness about new labor laws of 2008 through the state run media outlets. And workers have greater awareness and understanding of their rights for safe working conditions and double overtime pay, as well as other rights guaranteed in China's new labor laws. And something else is happening that connects the universities with workers. The expansion of the number of students at Chinese universities has brought more people from rural areas into the universities. This has created sympathy and support for migrant workers at the universities. Nine sociologists at Peking and Tsinghua universities signed an open letter calling national and local governments to implement actions that let migrant workers integrate into the city environment and share in the country's progress that they are creating. The government's security system has prevented the creation of a worker's movement in the past. But this time the government may be thinking of the need to develop China's domestic market, as the reliability of markets in the USA and European countries is uncertain as economic conditions change. For this to happen China's workers need higher wages to buy the goods China produces. ...

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The Dutch had their tulip bubbble, the Chinese have their Pu-er tea bubble which has just burst. It was a pure speculative bubble with speculators cornering the market and bidding up the price of tea in Yunnan province on the Burmese border. From 1997 to 2007 the price of these green tea leaves from Yunnan- that make a fermented brew called Pu-er- wentup from $15 to $150 a pound. Actually a group of manipulative buyers drove prices up. Production doubled from 2006 to 2007 to 100,000 tons. Unlike other teas this tea is said to grow better with age and is packed into compressed cakes for transport. Now prices of this tea have collapsed to $3 a pound. Russia had its own experiment with unbridled capitalism, now China is struggling with the effects of the aftermath of its own unbridled capitalism.

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Jack Ma of Alibaba is a very different person in 2023. This WSJ report looks at his activities in 2022 which included a stay in Hakone, Japan, visits within Japan, visit to Netherlands, Fiji. His current interest is in food production and meeting the agricultural needs in China over the next 20 years. Most of the time he is anonymous and people in the vicinity have no idea that this is Jack Ma.

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After meeting Zelensky in Paris during the Notre Dame Cathedral reopening DJT says it is time for an immediate end to the war after 600,000 lives lost or injured.

DJT writing on Truth Social media site-

“Zelensky and Ukraine would like to make a deal and stop the madness. They have ridiculously lost 400,000 soldiers, and many more civilians. There should be an immediate ceasefire and negotiations should begin.”

"Too many lives are being so needlessly wasted, too many families destroyed, and if it keeps going, it can turn into something much bigger, and far worse. I know Vladimir well. This is his time to act. China can help. The World is waiting!”

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150,000 homes in Los Angeles region that mostly empty are owned by foreign buyers 2025 who live in China and use it as an investment or asset to use when needed. This is a sore point for people who cannot find housing after losing their home in wildfires. Many of these homes are in the San Gabriel Valley- Pasadena, Arcadia, Temple City and San Marino.  Investors in such homes come from China, Mexico and South Korea, and real estate agents say about 1 in 10 homes are going to foreign buyers in these suburbs. Restrictions on moving money overseas by China's government has reduced the flow of international buyers in recent years.

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Steps the Modi government in India is taking in the 2020 Budget to tackle slowing growth include relaxing the fiscal deficit target from 3% to 3.5% of GDO, selling public sector companies to generate more funds, so that additional investment can be done in infrastructure, rural development, education and health care. Growth of the economy is expected to drop to 5% for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2020.  A weak banking sector with sharp decline in credit, and decline in the auto sales by 20%, have worsened the decline in growth.  Ms. Nirmala Sitharaman, the Finance Minister, said that this budget is designed to "boost Indian incomes, and enhance their purchasing power." The Indian slowdown comes in the middle of a global slowdown, with China's growth expected to be 4.9% in the first quarter of 2020. Growth was further weakened after the effects of the coronavirus lockdown on parts of China, disruption of supply chains, partial closure of businesses. ...

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Home Depot to keep prices steady by making products outside China- May 2025. Home Depot says it will do this by making products outside of China. DJT administration is working to get American retailers to hold prices steady as the US grapples with overconcentration of production in China. For three decades American administrations from Bush to Obama allowed the overconcentration of production in China to take place and diverted attention to unwinnable foreign wars where American interests were not at stake. US president DJT faces a difficult situation to reverse this overconcentration having to resort to tariffs and other actions to correct these missteps of previous presidents.

 During the transition period Americans need to be protected from rising prices to keep increase in the cost of living under control. Companies such as Home Depot are taking a responsible step considering the importance of the action for America's long term interests.

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The work of key Ministries in India is tracked by the Hindusthan Times in March 2018 showing the progress of the Modi government. At the Defense Ministry  a major effort is underway to promote the defense sector to reduce the defense imports of $100 billion over the last decade, and to make this a major jobs generating sector. The Foreign Ministry is pursuing the China-India dialogue, and efforts to tackle the trade deficit with China of $51 billion. The Ministry of Education is working on giving universities autonomy from the Universities Grant Commission so that first tier universities can plan their own development, hire faculty and plan for the future without UGC approval. Jawaharlal Nehru University and the University of Hyderabad, first tier institutions have autonomy from UGC under this effort. 

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Plan B for US president DJT on Tariffs - Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act to place a 150 day 15% tariff. Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. Trade Investigations under Section 301. Much of this set of laws are already in place and being used by the US. A law passed in 1930 is another avenue for tariffs Section 338 of ther Tariff Act of 1930. The US government and US president DJT could also have Congress enact a new law as it has majority in both the Senate and the House and the president could make acase for the reasonable use of tariffs with the EU and Japan having taken advantage of trade to the disadvantage of the US. There is also broad support for fentanyl action by the president using economic action on tariffs on nations Canada, Mexico, China that continue to let the flow of fentanyl across their borders for use by drug trafficking gangs in Mexico to send over US land border at the 2000 mile long US-Mexico border.

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WSJ talk of "reverse Nixon" shift of Russia from China Feb 2025- reminscent of how China moving away from Russia in Mao's last years by 1971- with DJT overtures to Russia. This report does not say that Lt. Keith Kellogg has said clearly and many times the main reason- it is a senseless war that is costing an entire generation of young men from Russia and Ukraine with loss of about 1 million young people in war zones including civilians. All coming after a pandemic has taken away millions of people of an older generation from China, India, US and Russia. PM Modi has also described it in this way.

Europe sees this but has become so entrenched in a view that there will be a winner in this war when there are no winners. America as a beacon of hope in the world takes a position that is in the interests of India, China, EU, Russia and the US.

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Anglo American responds to declining commodity prices and the slowdown in China with deep cuts of 53,000 jobs from its 151,000 workforce. Some of the jobs will be layoffs and other job cuts will be through sale of mines. In Australia mining employment is down 13% in the 2d quarter of 2015 over prior year. Anglo American plans to sell over a quarter of assets in the downsizing. BHP has spun off over ten mines into a separate company called South32. American Pittsburgh based company Consol Energy says it will no longer provide guaranteed health insurance to retired workers. Anglo American is one of the hardest hit companies. It had losses of $3 billion for the first half of 2015, and needs $1.5 billion in cost cutting to become profitable again.

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Most American states fare worse than China in life expectancy and a third of American states including even Michigan fare worse than Sri Lanka in life expectancy. This series by Nicholas Kristof of the NYT looks at the interwoven problems from reading comprehension for 4th graders to a broken health system and large disparities of income never before experienced in this way through loss of manufacturing that are devastating America. Among retired people over half have no savings at all and about 90% of retired people are income insecure, something never before seen in the two hundred years of American history. 

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German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock says Germany will not be blackmailed. She rejected the idea that Russia is expanding its attacks on Ukraine in response to supply of longer range artillery from the US and Germany saying this was just "new propaganda from the Russian side."

Baerbock also said Germany needs to avoid a situation of being dependent on an aggressor for gas supply. Germany is now "very intensively" looking at its dependencies on China, said Baerbock. This is going to be  for "a sovereign European strategy of independence in critical infrastructure."

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The slowdown in China, the collapse of oil prices, and depreciation in emerging market currencies, suggest that low inflation in the U.S is likely to continue in 2016. This will make it harder for the U.S. Federal Reserve under Yellen to increase interest rates in 2016.

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The price of gas powered cars and EV's is closing, to about $5000 according to Cox Automotive. Tesla is cutting prices because of new competition from Japanese, Korean and German models in the US market. China's BYD is also in the global market with new battery technology that cuts cost. Batteries make up 40% of EV car cost. The cost of making EV's will drop to becoming the same as gas powered models by 2027 as companies get more experience in the new technologies, says Gartner.