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This report in the WSJ confirms other commentary and reporting in different media sources that the Republican Tax Law lacks popular support. It cites the latest WSJ/NBC poll showing deep skepticism about the law on whether as Republicans claim the middle class benefits from this tax cut. More than two thirds in the survey, including 68% of independents, see the law as giving tax cuts mostly to the wealthy and corporations. This is higher than other polls taken before the bill was passed. As little as 17% say their family would get a tax cut. A previous poll showed this at 25%, showing that as Americans look at it more closely it is raising more questions about fairness. This makes Republicans face a steep climb as they try to convince people to the contrary.

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Nature Conservancy reports that trees planted in cities reduce particulate matter by between 7% and 24%.  Particulate matter are microscopic particles we breathe in when there is polluted air from automobiles, factories, or smoking. The cooling effect is about 2 degrees centigrade or 3.6 degrees fahrenheit. Outdoor air pollution causes asthma and other lung diseases, and led to premature deaths of about 3 million people in 2012, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). Hospitalization from high pollution levels is another major problem, especially in poor and middle income nations, such as Brazil, Mexico, India, China and Indonesia. Air Flow should be considered when planting trees in congested urban areas. Cities in the west also benefit from tree planting, and London has benefitted from the park spaces and tree planting.

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Heidi Vogt provides this exceptional account on the U.S. and international efort to build Liberia's healthcare system from scratch. Years of civil war till 2003 and the shortage of funds mean that even basic equipment such as X ray machines and blood testing equipment are lacking in Liberian hospitals. Even with a effort that includes the U.S. Army and Air Force planes, a 25 bed hospital for healthcare workers using tents will take till early November to be operational. Showing that the response is sorely inadequate here in Liberia leading to the spread of Ebola to Europe and the U.S. by December at the current pace. Liberia's head of Ebola control says the international community has failed Liberia with its inadequate response. For the U.S. and Europe an inadequate response creates new dangers as the public has lost confidence in government response.

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France's Paris St Gemain team wins by scoring 2 goals in the last 10 minutes of the game over a team from Bergamo, Italy that scored early, to reach the semi finals of the Champions League. The unlikely scorer is a player Choupo-Moting from France/Cameroon who played well for Mainz in the Bundesliga years ago under the new PSG coach Thomas Tuchel but has not played well for a long time. Tuchel also has that history of disciplined and patient work that brought results in coaching Mainz, then Dortmund and now PSG. He was only 25 years when an injury led to him having to retire as a player. Five years later at 30 he emerged doing youth coaching for soccer teams leading to the coaching work at Mainz.

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The civilian labor force participation rate for people over 60 years of age reached 29.4% in the U.S. in 2012, up from a little over 22% in 2002, according to the Labor Department. This reflects the slow growth in retirement savings with low interest rates and the economic shocks from the global financial crisis of 2008 to savings. A Conference Board report shows about two thirds of people between 45 and 60 years age are planning to delay retirement, up from 42% two years earlier.

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Matthew Curtin reminds readers about a couple of facts about Germany. There has been a leftward movement of the Christian Democrats which has supported social protections in the global financial crisis. During the crisis collapsing exports that hit Germany hard. The Free Democrats as a result are the only party campaigning for reforms and lower taxes. The Christian Democrats think some of the Free Democrats plans are unrealistic. There is heavy public questioning of free market economics, and the reason the Social Democrats did so badly with only 23% of the vote is that it supported pro market reforms and lost some of its working class base. As the work subsidies expire in 2010 unemployment could hit 11%. So he says don't expect much in the way of reforms just because the Free Democrats got 15% of the vote and are in the coalition with Merkel.

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A government report gives a second by second account of a high speed train collision in China on July 23, 2011. It shows major equipment failures, human errors, and confusion in communications.

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Malanga documents the failure of federal and state spending to achieve urban renewal for a city in industrial decline for decades- Buffalo, New York. Buffalo has a poverty rate estimated at 29%.

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The British pound drops by 5 cents to the dollar in the 1st week of October. By Oct 6, 2016 the pound dropped to $1.245. Since the Brexit vote the pound has fallen by 25 cents. This is happening even with the ultra-loose monetary policy of the Bank of England. The difficulty facing the government in keeping promises for Brexit with the fact of a British economy that is closely connected to the European Union, mean that a disruptive departure is possible. This is reflected in the sharp and continuing decline of the Pound. The drop in the Pound could also aggravate inflation, making the Bank of England's job more difficult. The Pound's earlier role as a safe haven during the eurozone debt crisis is also now changed after Brexit vote to leave the EU has created new uncertainties and risks for the British economy.

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At this time following the Brexit vote $1 trades for 82 pence. This is a sharp drop in the value of the British pound. With it tech companies Dell, Microsoft, HP, and Apple are raising their prices sharply. Apple prices are up about 25% as a result of Brexit and fall in value of sterling. The price of Apple apps now reflects the falling value of the pound. Not only Britain is affected. In India the app which cost $0.99 now costs 80 rupees in India from 60 rupees previously, a 33% increase. In Turkey the increase is 30%. It all goes to show that as the Bank of England's GOvernor Carney has pointed out that Brexit comes at a price, a price that the British public were not alerted on at the time of the vote with the temporary crises of refugees influx and internal squabbles inside Labor and Tories deciding the vote.

 

 

 

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The Gallois Report commissioned by the new government in France to restore France's manufacturing competitiveness. Louis Gallois is the former head of aerospace firm EADS. It calls for a 30 billion euro cut in payroll taxes to help French companies compete in global markets. Gallois proposes 22 main measures to "stop the slide and support the economy." He called this a "competitiveness shock." Gallois points to France's 70 billion euro trade deficit in contrast to booming German exports. The cost to the economy was 2 million French jobs over 3 decades, says the report. Unemployment today is around 10%. Measures suggested include the payroll tax cuts of 1.5% of GDP for salaries upto 4900 euros a month, and employee representatives to sit on board of directors of French companies similiar to Germany.

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The loan-to-deposit ratios on average for European banks of over 110% are much higher than the average in the U.S. of about 78%, according to analysts. The loan-to-deposit ratios for Spanish and Italian banks are much higher, with 160% for Bankia. If Spain leaves the eurozone and places a moratorium on loan payments the Greek loans on the books of France's banks in Greece would be in default, especially Credit Agricole. The French banks would suffer an estimated loss of 20 billion euros, and German banks 4.5 billion euros. German banks have been more aggressive in reducing their loan protfolios at risk than French banks during 2010-2012, hence their smaller exposure.

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Slowing car sales are expected for Detroit auto manufacturers as Japanese sales recover after the tsunami and earthquake. A major reason for higher sales was pentup demand. Sales reached an annualized 14 million level for 2012. Research firm Polk says the average time a new car was owned went up to 71.4 months, and used cars 49.9 months, in Feb 2012. This is 23% above the level of the third quarter of 2008.

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The "cut, cap and balance" pledge of Republican candidates for the presidential election of 2012. The current House version requires capping federal spending at 19.9% of GDP by 2018. This say House leaders is in accordance with the average spending levels for the last 30 years. It would have to come down from 24%. The balanced budget amendment caps spending at 18% of GDP and a balanced budget within a decade. The pledge is written promise to cut spending immediately.

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Sinn Fein is very different today from what it was decades earlier as the political wing of the Irish Republican party. When Ireland became independent Britain retained a third of the country as part of the UK as Northern Ireland. Sinn Fein's goal was to reunify the country.  It is popular today along the border and in regions struggling with poverty, including rural areas. As a left of centre party it is unique in Europe as both the main parties are right of center. Housing is an issue for Sinn Fein because it is the first to call for government to play a role in building new housing to tackle a severe housing shortage. With social policies that include government involvement to support social programs, Sinn Fein is likely to be the largest party winning 25% of the votes, with Fiana Fail the current party getting 24%,  and Fine Gael 20%. Yet rival parties are not likely to form a coalition with Sinn Fein. It also shows how much has changed when Irish reunification is now on the agenda with a referendum in 5 years proposed by Sinn Fein, as an accepted feature of the political landscape with Britain leaving the European Union. Under Mary Lou Macdonald who is from Dublin, replacing Gerry Adams, the image of the party is very different today, compared to the violence tinged past of the links to the Irish Republican Army. Most supporters today have few memories of that period, growing up in the period after peace was established in Ireland between different factions.  The exit of Britain from the European Union has provided momentum to the idea of reunification of Ireland from all sides for the first time. The links to the EU are popular in all parts of Ireland and Northern Ireland. The links to the economic crisis of 2009 and free markets have tainted the record of Fiana Fail, long the dominant party.  In Northern Ireland Mr. McGuiness is succeeded by Michelle O'Neill, who was just 21 when the peace deal was signed. In Ireland Mary Lou McDonald entered politics after the peace deal and has a Dublin accent.  The new generation looks at the EU as a natural partner, distancing itself from England. It also thinks and acts differently than Sinn Fein of the past. In just the way Scottish independence has found its way as an accepted idea in Scotland, Irish unification is seen as a positive idea with its association with the European Union, ...

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Wyson Lungu returned to Zambia after studying in the US and joined a telecommunications company in Lusaka. On one of his trips to a remote part of Zambia his car broke down and needed repairs. It took 24 hours before a man with a bicycle helped get him to a place 8 hours away by bicycle. This was one of the few bicycles in that village. Most women simply walked 4 hours carrying farm produce for sale on roadsides starting at 2 or 3 in the morning. This is when Lungu started a bicycle business for farming villages, and so far has sold 3000 bicycles to women in farming villages, with bicycle repair places set up in the villages for bicycle repair and maintenance. This is changing lives in these remote farming villages of Zambia and helping women who do agricultural work in small farms. Lungu relies on cooperative associations he sets up in the villages to organize the sales including payment in instalments and through barter of commodities such as crops or maize. ...

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Anderson Clayton 25 years, grew up in a rural part of North Carolina. She won the state leadership election and has clear ideas about what went wrong with the Democratic party. She gets asked not to keep saying "we've left Democrats behind." And responds by saying: "We have, we've left people behind." During the Obama administration the party became more of a metropolitan party and lost sight of rural voters. It also neglected towns that were dependent on factories that moved overseas. Her plan is to reach out to rural voters in North Carolina, and to the hundreds of thousands of students there. Clayton feels that rural and blue collar voters have been forgotten by the Democratic party and she wants to get this right. She won her race against a 73 year old candidate who had the support of the Democratic party establishment. Clayton who studied at Appalachian State University, is an organizer, and wants to be active throughout the year meeting and organizing rural voters and students. ...

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Can Britain take it, more Tory austerity cuts? Mark Landler in the NYT calls it one of the most austere budgets ever imposed on Britain, a country already in recession. Prime minister Sunak and finance minister Jeremy Hunt introduce a budget that will cut government programs saving 30 billion pounds and higher taxes of 25 billion pounds or $29.7 billion. This will mean a drop of 7% in disposable incomes of people in Britain over 2 years. After a series of missteps first under Boris Johnson and then briefly under Liz Truss, the Tory government of Rishi Sunak concentrates on budgetary constraints ignoring the promises made for growth and improving infrastructure, leveling up of regions, that were made by a series of Conservative governments. It lacks broad support as this government was not elected with this mandate. Boris Johnson won the election with traditional Labour support for leveling up, growth and infrastructure. None of this is happening. Also cut are budgets for the defense ministry, foreign aid and aid to cultural institutions in London. ...

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Austrian chancellor Karl Nehammer meets Russian leader Putin for 90 minutes and tells him that he has "lost the war morally" and that "in war both sides are losers." As shown by the World Bank today the Russian economy could be impacted by somewhere between 11% to 25% loss for its economy, for Ukraine the loss would be 45%. For Belarus, Moldova and former soviet republics of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Krygyz, the loss to their economies about 30% because the region is interconnected with remittances and other trade impacted. These would be devastating economic losses. The entire region in this part of Europe would be suffering losses. Many of the countries would have to turn to the IMF or the World Bank to remain solvent. One of Russian leader Putin's goals was to build a rival economic bloc from former Soviet republics and regions. Instead the invasion has done just the opposite. The economic losses will have impoverished the whole region.   ...

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Dr. Ezekiel Emmanuel of the University of Pennsylvania gives this early warning on the risks of the sudden U turn in China's zero covid policy to complete reopening. He says the switch from zero covid to population wide immunity via viral spread is coming on too suddenly without preparation. He says China made three mistakes. First, the economic cost of zero covid that dropped growth and created high youth unemployment of over 20%. Second, not procuring Pfizer and Moderna mRNA vaccines with newer technologies. Third, moving to abruptly end the zero covid policy 180 degrees in a sudden move that lacks preparation. Precipitiously ending the zero covid policy for 800 million people means rapid spread says Dr. Emmanuel. He says the key variable the R statistic that measures how many people get infected from one covid patient on average, has moved from 2 to 3 during the early stages of the pandemic to 10 with the omicron variant. Chinese officials report the R to be at 16 in China today, says Dr. Emmanuel. ...

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Binyamin Applebaum of the NYT Editorial Board says the gap from 1972 to 2021 of 21% of GDP in spending and 17% of GDP in taxes taken in is a serious problem because it creates $31 trillion in debt and over 475 billion in interest payments each year. And much of the spending is wildly popular 63% that goes to Social Security and Medicare, and vital spending on health care and education, social services that takes up 15%. The rest is defense and interest payments. The rest of the G7 spend about 50% more on average he says. This is why he says Republicans holding up raising the debt ceiling is not the issue that needs to be faced each year there are better more direct and sensible solutions that also address the need for the Renewal of America after years of underinvestment in everything from infrastructure to health and education. And capital markets that overcrowded essential government spending to finance massive capital misallocation by tech companies, the costs of which are only now being understood in America. ...

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This editorial in the WSJ shows a different view of the passage of the $280 billion semiconductor bill in the US Congress and the Biden Schumer negotiation for the $369 billion climate change and tax bill that was done at rapid pace in the span of 24 hours. It sees this from the view of the Republican party that hoped to present president Biden as a failure, unable to tackle inflation or achieve much for action on climate change, renewable energy, and building America's supply chain.  All this is happening quickly and shows the value of patience and persistence, and faith in the ultimate fairness of the American cause during a difficult time of war in Europe and rancor at home. It is not that 17 Republican Senators got played as the WSJ puts it, they voted for the $280 billion semiconductor bill on its merits and their ultimate faith in the fairness of the American cause and faith in America's workers and families, in its people. ...

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A You.Gov poll taken for The Times in the last 5 days says 9 out of 10 Tory voters have decided who they will vote for as ballot papers went out this week. And 60% will vote for Liz Truss who has widened her lead to 34 points over Rishi Sunak. Tory party voters for the leadership by a majority or 53% say Boris Johnson should not have resigned. Only 41% say Boris Johnson should resign. Mr. Johnson supported Liz Truss, as do most of the cabinet.

When asked who can get Tories a majority in the next election Truss at 39% has a 20 percentage point lead over Sunak. From this it appears that if Tories themselves and not the cabinet had decided Boris Johnson would still be prime minister, and Liz Truss takes on the premiers role with the same style and spirit of Brexit that Johnson brought to the role and would consider Mr. Johnson as part of the close advisers.