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Tom Wheeldon in FR24 describes the importance of cultural issues such as women wearing headscarves in Turkish elections that are important in the Anatolian heartland away from Istanbul. Kilicdaroglu is handling this issue by supporting the right of women to wear headscarves. This puts more focus on the issue of inflation at over 50%, a cost of living crisis, and the handling of the earthquake, as Erdogan looks for a repeat of his previous election wins. If elected Kilicdaroglu will take Turkey back to a parliamentary system and rule by a civil servant who is modest and plans to serve for only one term. 

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The decisive German response to the Ukraine invasion comes within 72 hours of the invasion. "It is our duty to support Ukraine to the best of our ability in defending against Putin's invading army," German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said. "That is why we are delivering 1000 antitank weapons and 500 Stinger missiles to our friends in Ukraine." Similar shipments are being made by Netherlands and Britain. The US has committed $350 million additional military aid to Ukraine including "lethal defensive assistance" against invading armored and airborne forces, in the first 48 hours of the invasion.

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Of ten countries from which India gets oil Russia is at No.9 just before Brazil at No.10, a is shown in this Reality Check on BBC News. India gets only less than 2% of its oil from Russia. Most of it comes from Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Middle East countries. In January and February India did not import oil from Russia and in March oil was imported at about 30% discount. By comparison Europe still gets 15% of its oil from Russia and this is not likely to change in the next couple of months says S. Jaishankar, India's Foreign Minister.

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U.S. gasoline demand is at about 8.6-9.2 million barrels a day down from the 9.6 -10 million barrels a day before mid March. It fell to 5 million barrels a day in April when prices were briefly at zero before recovering with the oil deal negotiated by president Trump. The lack of school reopenings, offices still closed and the surge in the pandemic in July and August has led to drop in the outlook for oil demand. Oil prices are now in the low $40's per barrel. Yet the overall recovery is strong considering that it is only 6 months into the pandemic.

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After stalling in summer 2021 US vaccination picks up in August to 865,000 on August 4, 2021. At one point vaccinations reached 3 million a day and stalled with younger people hesitating to get vaccinated. Some southern states Tennessee, Oklahoma and Georgia see a surge in vaccinations. This happens as US daily cases exceed 100,000 for the first time on August 4. Of this 50% are in 8 southern states including Florida, Texas, and Louisiana. Florida is the worst affected state. Hospitals are again being overwhelmed with new cases of delta variant among the unvaccinated in August. Southern states have lagged behind in vaccination.

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Rising food grain production with an increase of 4.5% to 150 million tonnes during kharif season shows hard work of farmers, scientific research in agriculture, and a good monsoon season rainfall. About 55% of the population is dependent on agricultural activities and at the time of the pandemic this should boost farm incomes, help keep down inflation, as well as increase exports and enhance agriculture dependent industries.

Improving rural economy will help sales in light motor vehicles, telecom products, and consumer products. The next step is rural supply chain building with new logistical improvements including cold chain facilities, storage facilities, food processing. 

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Invest in China and visits to China promoted by PM Li Qiang with easier to get China visas is not getting the response China would have liked to get. Zero covid efforts and anti-espionage campaign has created some distrust. South Korea with 300,000 people in China has seen registration numbers drop to 200,000. Britain by half from 40,000 to 20,000, Japan by 10% from 100,000 to 90,000, and France by about 20% from 40,000. China gave out 711,000 residence permits to foreigners in 2023, a 15% decline over 2019, yet for short distance permits that include business travelers the drop was by about two thirds. 

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French plans to cut energy use by 10% from 2019 levels in 2 year are announced by prime minister Elisabeth Borne. The target is 40% reduction in energy use by 2050. The key is to make energy use more efficient says president Macron. The efforts include turning down thermostats in buildings to 66 degrees Fahrenheit. Households are asked to start heating 2 weeks later than usual and end heating 2 weeks earlier than usual this winter. Civil servants will get about 3 euros a day for working from home. Remote work for some days a week is encouraged and carpooling is expected.

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This report in BBC on climate change issues in Australia with bushfires and floods and the hottest decade in history, was written four days before the election. It says even with the extreme weather disasters phasing out fossil fuels was a politically toxic issue in Australia and no party wanted to talk about it except the Greens. The election has changed this decisively with the Greens and other smaller parties getting one third of the vote. No party has proposed cutting carbon emissions by over 50%- Labour at 43% and Morrison coalition at 26%. Labour won by taking up climate change as an issue.

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The Russian central bank under Elvira Nabiullina raises interest rates by 3.5% to 12%. In the first 5 months of 2023 the Russian government spent 50% more in rubles than in the same period in 2022. The increase in spending meant increase in wages and more hiring for production of goods including production for the war effort. The policy was to carry on the war effort without the effects of the war being felt by ordinary Russian citizens. The result has been higher inflation at 7.6%. Nabiullina faces a unique set of challenges to control inflation, maintain the economy even as Russia continues the war effort in Ukraine. 

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South Korea's divisive politics and investigations of every presidential administration are covered in this WSJ report. The story of prosecutor Yoon, the Moon administration and Justice Minister in the Moon administration Cho Kuk is told here. Cho Kuk was investigated by the prosecutor he hired in the Moon administration Mr. Yoon. The investigation led to the 80% ratings of the Moon adminstration dropping to 40% and Yoon winning a presidential election. Cho responded by forming his own political party and calling for the removal of president Yoon in parliamentary elections held recently in which Yoon's party lost its majority in parliament.

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How do you rebuild the country Ukraine after so much bombing and continuing missiles in droves hitting the country? Most of the $300 billion in Russian assets are frozen in Europe and Europe does not want to violate international law to take over the assets. Instead it chose to give Ukraine $3 billon loan based on the interest coming from the $300 billion frozen assets. This is not going to do much as over $100 billion will be needed. The US Biden administration has a different plan. It is to use the interest to finance a loan of $50 billion from the EU and the US.

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70% of the world's internet traffic goes through 6 miles of land in Ashburn, Virgina, that is called Data Center Alley. This part of northern Virginia is filled with data centers that generate tax revenue for local communities. Culpepper where 17 year old George Washington worked as a Surveyor in the 1740's is one of these counties with data centers. Nearby 90 miles from Washington DC is Rappahannock County, which has rejected this development and not increased its population of about 8000 people for decades. WSJ looks at this part of rural Virginia where civil war battles took place.

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A year after taking office Argentine president Milei cuts spending by 30% bringing inflation down from 25% to 2.4% in November 2024. All sorts of programs are cut that had proliferated over the years. The resut is that the economy shrinks by 3.5% in 2024, only to grow rapidly by 5% in 2025 restoring a more stable pattern of growth and moderate inflation. Throughout it's history Argentina has faced high inflation and economic crises.A similar pattern in Brazil was broken in 1998 after two decades of inflation. It reached 56% in January 1990 dropping to about 2% in 1998.

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The NYT editorial on December 5 the day after the second effort by the automakers to present a case for a bailout loan, this time for $34 billion. The NYT says this time the automakers CEO's left 2 things behind in Detroit. One is their resignations, and other is plans to truly achieve the fuel efficiency gains possible comparable to what the European Union is aiming for, which is 50 miles per gallon in 2015. Instead the congress enacted under the influence of automaker lobbying groups a watered down fuel efficiency bill according to NYT, of 35 miles per gallon by 2020. It says experts believe that 43mpg could be achieved by then (2020) even without any technological breakthroughs and 50mpg could be achieved by making smaller cars. Only new management says the NYT could bring the deep cultural change needed for the industry in Detroit.

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Companies like P&G and Walmart in Mexico, and Lever Brothers and Cadbury in India, are taking developing markets seriously and going after the low price points for products; selling in areas away from the large cities. See the links to Nestle,P&G and Walmart. Cadbury is adding another element, by investing in the growing of cocoa in southern India, to have access to a cheaper supply to meet those low price points. Cadbury Dairy Milk Shots, are pea sized chocolate balls with a sugar shell to protect them from the heat. This product was launched this year. It sells for 2 rupees or 4 cents for a five gram packet. The low price makes it accessible to more people. For Cadbury emerging markets are crucial for new growth, and affordability a critical way to go after this market. Emerging markets account for 35% of Cadbury's sales and 60% of the growth. The potential is huge considering India's low per capita consumption of chocolate. Half of the people in India have never tasted chocolate in their life. And India's total chocolate consumption is $465 million compared to $4.89 billion in the UK. Growth has been at about 20% for the last 3 years. Cadbury controls over 70% of the chocolate market and 30% of the confectionery market in India, with combined sales of $338 million, according to AC Nielsen. Nestle is next with 25% of the chocolate market. To keep prices low the company is moving factories to lower cost locations and improving its supply chain. It has setup 20 nurseries in southern India, from where saplings are sent to nearby farms for cultivation. Cadbury provides the saplings, technical expertise, and advice on where to get free government assistance in fertilizers. This is called the Cadbury Cocoa Partnership and has planted 5 million saplings in India in 2008. Another 7.5 million saplings are planned for 2009, and already Cadbury imports only half of its cocoa needs. Local coca costs 30% less because of a 30% tariff on imports....

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Mr. McDonnell, says to loud applause at the annual Britain's Labor Party conference in Liverpool- "the greater the mess we inherit, the more radical we have to be." Mr. McDonnell told the Labor Party that the power balance had shifted against labor and workers in the last decade. The Brexit Secretary of the Labor Party left the option open for a second referendum on Brexit with the option "remain." Serious divisions have emerged within the ruling Conservative Party in Britain on the issue of withdrawal from the European Union. For the first time the Labor party conference endorsed the idea of nationalizing utilities, postal and rail companies and setting up a fund that would finance a $650 annual dividend for workers, with 10% of stock reserved for workers in companies with more than 250 employees. About a third of the seats will also be reserved for labor on company Board of Directors so that worker interests are better represented. Stagnating wages and low productivity is a major issue for the Labor Party in Britain. Mr. John McDonnell, as economic leader of the Labor Party, cited the words of the Archbishop of Canterbury, critical of the current situation with stagnation and low wages, lack of upward mobility. ...

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A Flash Eurobarometer poll before French elections in 2017 show 56% of Europeans in the EU saying the euro is a good thing, only 36% saying its not, those saying its good at 64% in Germany, and being 57% in Spain, and 53% in France. Walker of the WSJ says the euro has survived the crises of the last few years, with some but not all the steps taken to avoid a repeat of the problems, and public opinion still favoring the eurozone as it looks forward to economic growth in coming years. The middle class is not attracted to risking its savings in euro denominated assets, costs of the turmoil that might be caused by leaving the euro act as a signal for caution, and in Southern Europe countries remember the days before the euro with devaluations and high inflation. With gradual economic recovery it appears that the euro is still the best option there is. Surveys show three fourths of the French oppose leaving the euro, and experts say the euro is not to blame for France's slow economic recovery- more confidence and political stability with economic renewal are seen as the ways to get France going again. This may be why the national elections in France will likely bring a president who is pro-EU. ...

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The new administration of Lopez Obrador takes the first step in its efforts to to end the rampant corruption in Mexico that has affected previous governments, in this story from the WSJ.  Lobrador campaigned on this issue and won an overwhelming mandate. Mexico's finance ministry is conducting an investigation into dealings of the steel maker Ahmsa in the sale of a fertilizer plant to Pemex during the period when Mr. Lozoya was CEO of Pemex.  Mr. Lozoya led Pemex from 2012 with the election of President Nieto of the PRI party to 2015 when he was replaced as CEO as Pemex finances suffered and Pemex failed to anticipate a fall in oil prices.  Pemex paid $475 million for the fertilizer plant. Mexico's government says the plant was worth about $50 million. The Brazilian company Odebrecht is also involved in the transactions, according to this report in the WSJ. Ahmsa is struggling to operate under court approved restructuring. Twenty years ago it defaulted on $1.8 billion of debt. Similar problems have plagued countries in other parts of the world. In Malaysia a new government campaigned on this issue with a 90 year old Mahathir Mohamed returning to head the new government  following the election.  ...

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GE's share price falls below $10. It has dropped 77% in 1 year from the 52 week high of $38.52 a share. Last time it hit this level was April 17, 1995. And its GE Capital unit faces problems. For years it generated half of GE's profits, now it had to sell its commercial paper to the government when markets dried up last fall. It has had to use a government bond guarantee program for bond issuance in recent months, even though it was at one time one of the largest corporate bond issuers. It has been unable to sell its $30 billion private label credit card operations and it appliances and light bulb units, as there are no buyers. As the stock drops GE has to consider cutting the dividend of $1.24 per share, to keep more cash to navigate this crisis. GE's Immelt continues to have his managers focus on the operations, and its business reviews that were conducted weekly are now conducted daily, and the monthly reviews are conducted weekly. But being proactive hasn't helped in this environment. ....

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A brief history of Alibaba, its founder Jack Ma, and ways in which it is different from the internet business sites in the U.S. Like Google it gets its profits from advertising, but acts as online retailer with its website Taobao. With 50% of the Chinese e-commerce market for delivered parcels, Alibaba generated revenue for 3rd quarter 2012 of $1.78 billion, and net profit of $792 million.

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Airlines are not taking delivery of planes from Airbus and Boeing as travel on airlines remains restricted by a surge in the coronavirus cases in July 2020. Boeing delivered only 20 aircraft in the second quarter down from 90 in the same quarter in 2019. Airbus delivered 74 jets in the second quarter down from 227 in the prior year. This is straining finances for Airbus and Boeing. This affects suppliers such as engine maker GE. 

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China's agriculture based on small farms is undergoing a change as the government pushes automated farming and large farms in the face of limited imports from the U.S. China put tariffs on agricultural imports from the U.S. in retaliation for U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports. China's Agriculture Ministry says it will build 254 "strong agricultural industrial towns" as models for the country. President Xi stated on a visit to northeastern province Heilongjiang, that "unilateralism and trade protectionism are rising, forcing us to take the road of self reliance." The yield per hectare in the U.S. for soybeans is about twice that in China. Mechanized farming is limited in China because it would eliminate many jobs in rural areas. As the state has ownership of land and farmers merely use land, farmers are less likely to take risks with large long term investments. It can be risky for farmers to rent their land use rights to others, which would lead to consolidation.  Now a separate "Made in 2025" plan makes upgrading farm machinery and equipment one of the 10 goals. China may lift ban on genetically modified seeds now that ChemChina has acquired Swiss seed company Syngenta. China plans to partner with Asian Development Bank to provide $6 billion of loans, grants and investment to fund a list of development projects in rural areas, to modernize agriculture. WSJ cites a project of consolidation into an 8200 acre farm in Shandong province that  has increased yields 43% by investing in new farm equipment and planting machines, pesticide spraying drones. Scaling up has made this possible.    ...

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Oil traders are pricing in much higher oil prices- with $150 not being inconceivable- because of Mideast unrest. They see this unrest playing out over a long period of time, and do not see this changing even if the Libyan situation returns to normal tomorrow. Saudi Arabia will need to price oil at $85-90 a barrel just to meet the economic demands for a growing population, says Rachel Ziemba, analyst at Roubini Global Economics. Saudi King Abdullah recently promised $150 billion in new housing, higher wages and other benefits to prevent protests. The fiscal pressures are growing in these countries. A $15-$20 premium for unrest is assigned by Paramount Options, a trader at the New York Mercantile Exchange.

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About 10 million households in the U.S. are underwater in their mortgages, living in homes that are worth less than what they owe on the mortgage. According to Zillow Inc. in the first quarter of 2014, about 9.7 million households or 18.8% of U.S. homeowners are underwater in their mortgage. Another 10 million U.S. households have less than 20% equity in their homes. Underwater homes are concentrated in the bottom third of the price range with 30% in this range, resulting in fewer homes available to new first time buyers entering the market. At the same time the higher mortgage rates and 11% price increases in the last 2 years make homes costlier for first time buyers who face sticker shock, according to Zillow economists.