LyrArc Article Gist
Venezuela has heavy oil in the Orinoco basin, and 7 blocks there are up for bidding which could generate 1 million barrels aday of synthetic oil. The terms are that Petroleos de Venezuela would get 60% share ad operational control but not put up any money. In addition the government will take a 33% royalty and a windfall tax. State owned oil companies in China, India and Russia, Perobras, BP, Chevron, Shell and Total have expressed interest. Political risk is taken into account but some countries are on friendly terms with Venezuela. Main concern is the recession and fall in price of oil.

LyrArc Article Gist
"We will never abandon the American worker and her community wherever it is located," says president Biden's head of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA). He tells the Economic Policy Institute that many economists had questioned the policies that hurt American workers even as early as 1996. He joined EPI in 1992 and says he has followed the trade debate since then and heard the warnings as China entered the WTO in 2001 after years of negotiations in the last year of the Clinton administration.  Common sense questions were asked- Why asked Thea Lee now at the Labor Department is it good to have protection of intellectual property rights but not labor rights under NAFTA. On TPP and FTA's or free trade agreements in general he who writes the rules gets to benefit from them. Free trade having far less to do with free trade as generalized is the first thing he noticed when coming to Washington. Certain business groups captured the task of writing the rules in TPP  to benefit them.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Different versions of renewal America for the Senate seat in Pennsylvania, one from head of investment firm Bridgewater Associates Dave McCormick, with assets over $100 million, and Bob Casey Jr. representing working class voters and rural voters left behind in three decades of Reagan trickle down economics and lack of government support to industry, workers and farmers under prior administrations of Clinton, Bush, Obama and Trump. Both president Joe Biden and Bob Casey are from Scranton, Pennsylvania, a iron and steel town from the 19th century, and Casey lives in Scranton, close to working class families of northeastern Pennsylvania, many of them of Irish descent from earlier immigration waves in American history. Bob Casey Jr is unique as he sees America coming back in steel. Harris thinks so as she said in Pittsburgh at Carnegie Mellon, steel is back, not just Chips and Science. Instead of outsourcing investment as the large hedge funds have done in China, and outsourcing jobs overseas, making right here in America and delivering as Biden is doing with one trillion dollars of investment.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
UNICEF say 2.5 million children are not attending school in Syria and another 1 million are in danger of dropping out. And that one third of school buildings are destroyed. This is what is left after decades of civil war. The intervention of local and foreign powers in the Arab world has led to huge breakdowns in society, and massive destruction in countries facing civil war such as Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Libya. This is the kind of situation that happened in China's northern and southern provinces in the 1930's, and 1940's. A new pathway for peaceful development outside of ideologies and socialist movements, pan arabist or religious movements need to be found for the region, the Arab world in North Africa to the Middle East. China, Korea, and Vietnam found a way out after civil wars over 1940-1975. India is putting out a map for a course of action with Vikshit Bharat  or Developed India after two centuries of stagnation under the British Empire 1756-1947, and 5 decades of stagnation under the Congress Raj 1947-2000. The spirit of development and desire for modernization, for modern science and technology, good governance and institutions, must come from within.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Fears that India may be falling behind China, Mexico and Brazil in healthcare for the people. A planned budget increase was never implemented. Today the Indian government spends only $20 billion on healthcare for a population of over 1 billion people. Annual spending on healthcare is about 1.4% of GDP. Now the Indian government is planning to increase this to 2.5% of GDP. One senior health official Amarjeet Sinha, says other emerging economies such as Brazil, Mexico, Malaysia, now have better public health indicators than India. In 1990 India's public health indicators were similiar to those countries. Another serious problem in India is malnutrition with an estimated 4 of 10 children malnourished. Underinvestment in healthcare is a significant problem as needs grow but there is a shortage of resources and trained healthcare personnel. Arvind Singhal, chairman of consutancy Technopak, says India needs an additional 1 million doctors and 2.5 million nurses to meet the needs of the current level of the Indian population. To do this 600 new medical colleges and 1,500 nursing colleges are needed. The child care advocacy group Save the Children UK, points out that just to meet India's committment to reduce the infant mortality rate by two thirds of the current level by 2015- to meet India's commitment to the UN Millenium Development Goals- India will need 2.6 million additional trained health workers. This shortage is most acutely felt in rural areas, especially in the large states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar....

LyrArc Article Gist
This WSJ editorial board article points out that legal enforcement under new formal rules agreed to by China is essential to replace former Chinese promises on trade.

U.S. companies need to be able to report abuses particularly in relation to handing over technology and have rule based action taken immediately as a response, says the WSJ. Better still the U.S. needs to coordinate its action with the European Union and Japan.

LyrArc Article Gist
U.S. president Trump says in this interview with Michael Bender of WSJ about the international spread of the coronavirus- "there is a chance it was intentional." He said he did not think China would do that "but you never know, but it has had an impact."

He also said that he would like to think there was not systematic racism, but unfortunately there is some. 

LyrArc Article Gist
On May 11, NYT shows the rail network in India opening with the first trains taking 45 million migrants to homes in all parts of the country. Australia calls for an international inquiry into the cause of the coronavirus pandemic and its origins in China. Russia begins a cautious reopening with the governors of provinces having powers for reopening based on local conditions. In Spain restrictions are gradually being lifted but the major cities of Barcelona and Madrid are still in lockdown. And as Germany the first country to reopen opens up its business and schools the crucial R ratio of reproduction of the virus -with 1 being the number at which it grows again and below 1 showing control of spread- moves up to above 1.

LyrArc Article Gist
Indian prime minister Modi says India "will go above and beyond" the 2015 Paris climate change accord. He said at a news conference with French president Macron that it was "our duty to protect Mother Earth." He said after the meeting that the Paris accord was "the common heritage of the world," and "a gift that this generation can give." India has set ambitious goals for solar and wind energy as costs of solar become competitive with coal. Because India desperately needs energy for over 200 million people who lack electricity, India's shift away from reliance on coal may be a lesson learned from the damage to air and water in China's two decade industrial expansion based on coal.

LyrArc Article Gist
A veteran campaigner for Hong Kong values and civil rights presents his view of the Hong Kong protests for free elections. Is it in China's long term interest to let the same "cronyism" that is embedded into China's political governance be imposed on Hong Kong, when cronyism and corruption eventually lead to lower productivity, poor economic decisionmaking, and slower growth. Future leaders may need Hong Kong people to tackle these economic problems emerging from poor governance common to many countries leading to stagnation. With a rapidly aging population China risks falling into the middle income trap. The past governance achieved economic gains but an open system with a truly open Hong Kong is likely to be needed to generate the kind of economic growth needed inthe future. Opportunities lost can never be recovered in the same way again.

LyrArc Article Gist
Britain's population increased by 9 million between 1992 and 2018, to 66.4 million, and is projected to increase further. It will pass 70 million in 2031. This report looks at the positive changes this represents by keeping a large working age population in contrast to China, Japan and France.

LyrArc Article Gist
The Russian position for a ceasefire in Ukraine and peace talks is set forth by president Putin. "Our principled position is that state of Ukraine must be neutral, non aligned and free of nuclear weapons." Putin wants Ukraine to give up Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, Russian speaking regions in the east of Ukraine. Capitals of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions and some of the territory is controlled by Ukraine today. It means that Russia could accept a ceasefire under the present lines of control. It also means Ukraine would not be part of NATO, though it could be part of the European Union, as a peace settlement. All western sanctions on Russia would have to be lifted. Throughout the decade of this war Russia has maintained close connections to the Russian speaking eastern part of Ukraine with historically close ties to Russia and as Ukraine public opinion shifted to the EU Russia began its efforts to bring these regions under its control even when German-Russian relations were better during Merkel years. Russia has the support of China and Brazil in its position. At some point if a settlement is reached one possibility is that the line of actual control or LAC would be put in place. It happened in the Korean War, when the demilitarized zone was setup and in other conflicts on the Indian border with China and Pakistan, in Cyprus between Greece and Turkey. For it to happen Russia will have to dispel fears in the EU and the US that Russia will continue the conflict at some later stage till all its objectives are achieved. This requires removing the perception that Putin is set on achieving all his objectives to reopen the war at some later stage. Mr. Putin hinted at this by saying "today we are making a concrete real peace proposal," and adding that Russia was not ''talking about freezing the conflict, but its final resolution." In this situation it is the western doubt about Putin's intentions that is another barrier to a settlement on European security, with continued destruction in Ukraine when the war has entered a stalemate where both sides have exhausted their resources and have little to gain by prolonging this conflict. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
African continent debt reached $1.1 trillion in 2024. About 900 million people live in African countries where interest payments on debt exceed money spent on healthcare and education. In Nigeria external debt is $40 billion, in Kenya $35 billion and Uganda $12 billion.  Take Nigeria with 220 million people. 40% of the revenue collected goes to meet interest payments on debt. For many African countries there is zero per capita income growth for a decade. During the 2010 crisis as interest rates reached new lows US and European Reagan era intellectuals including Democrats encouraged African countries to borrow at low rates and banks loosened restrictions putting more African countries into debt buildup borrowings. As interest rates went up the cost of paying the debt accumulated required more loans at higher interest rates. Nigeria paid a premium over that of 10% for a loan of $2 billion just for interest payments. The debt crisis means African currencies depreciate reducing purchasing power.  With war in Ukraine and Covid prices of food and energy rose. Only the strong and disciplined leadership and rapid industrialization provided breathing room as with Modi in India, Jinping in China, the African continent and Latin America lacked this and are feeling the pain. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
China's GDP growth rate slowed to 7% in the 1st quarter of 2015, compared to 7.3% in the 4th quarter of 2014. China's Office of National Statistics reported industrial production growth at 5.65% year over year in March 2015, and fixed asset investment in the 1st quarter at 13.5%. The statistics agency reported unemployment at stable level of 5.1% for the 1st quarter 2015. Experts say the low unemployment is the one positive sign in the economy, easing pressures on economic policymakers to take action considering the high debt levels in the economy. As a result China can pursue selective monetary easing efforts and smaller, selective, better targeted stimulus.

LyrArc Article Gist
Inflation is receding as an issue in the 2024 elections as the CPI index dropped below 3% in July as reported by the Labor Department. It was 2.9% lowest since 2021. Greg Ip says when Trump is saying bacon costs 5 times more now he needs to find another supermarket. That is the joke as Trump is really getting ripped off. Ip says bacon prices are up 18% since 2020 when Biden took office. Trump says at rallies grocery prices are up 70%, Ip says fact correction -up 21% since January 2021 not 70%. Trump says gas prices are $5.00 a gallon. Fact correction- gas prices are $3.75 a gallon and falling, says Ip. Trump wildly exaggerates. Trump says he will cut energy and electricity prices by 50% in 12-18 months. His answer "Drill Baby Drill." Experts cited by Greg Ip say even if new offshore and onshore leases are given, increase in supply is marginal and years away. Gas prices are determined by the world price determined by OPEC and Russia, says Ip.  Trump will increase inflation says this report because of tariffs he plans of 60% on imports from China and 10% from other places. That would increase inflation by 1.4 to 1.7% say analysts. Greg Ip of WSJ offers more clues. Inflation linked bonds see inflation dropping to 2.2% in 2025 instead of 2.6% predicted earlier. Jerome Powell at the US central bank the Fed and president Biden hav done their job well and are not letting up, continue to work on it diligently every day. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
 China exports to the US $438 billion vs $143 billion the US sends to China - the US deficit with China 2024 equals $295 billion. This is the fact that the media continues to ignore. Behind this is the gutting of the industrial base of the US shipped offshore to China since 2000 by American companies. 5 million jobs lost and tens of thousands of factories destroying the backbone of the economy, America's middle class.  Much of the US exports are oil and gas which can be shipped to Europe, India and other places. The soyabeans and grain from America's farmers is the other part of exports of $13 billion. The US can find other markets for the farm products including India under a trade agreement, and farmers can be supported with agricultural subsidies. It only makes sense to rebuild America's industrial base and pull back from an unfair trade arrangement that can only be the result of serious neglect of their responsibilities of previous administrations before DJT in 2016. The piecemeal efforts 2016-2024 have not worked to rebuild America's middle class,  recover jobs and factories, as a result a new bolder approach is needed in 2025 to rewrite the rules for world trade for an even playing field where everyone is treated with fairness. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The Big Beautiful Tax and Spending Bill in the US Congress faces close votes in the US Senate with Senators Rand Paul of Kentucky, and Thom Tillis of North Carolina, both Republicans against it.  The Senate version has additional cuts to Medicaid funding. Tillis expressed concern about these cuts. Senator Rand Paul is opposed to increasing the deficit for enlarged spending and tax cuts. Republicans and DJT have close votes in the Senate and in the Congress. Republicans Murkowski of Alaska and Curtis of Utah want to change the early phaseouts of tax credits to the renewable energy industry in the Senate bill, and the excise tax after 2027 to avoid buying from China and develop American manufacturing in renewables. Senator Collins of Maine has an amendment to add $25 billion for rural healthcare and rural hospitals to offset the effects of large Medicaid cuts. Collins plan also lets taxes revert to 39.6% from 37% for married couples incomes over $50 million.  The bill then heads back to the House for changes by Wednesday, July 2, for a goal to have it on the president's desk by July 4th, Friday. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The boost to investor perceptions for India with Modi's election, and to Indonesia with Widodo's election are major changes in the second half of 2014. The first half saw the dented confidence in Argentina, Venezuela, Turkey and South Africa. To this can be added Russia with Putin's response in Ukraine and western sanctions. China with Jinping's response to pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong for restoration of the pledge of free elections by 2017, appears to be losing investor confidence, especially with investors seeing this as adopting the Putin Way. This is happening with a gradual movement towards restoration of trade relations with Iran.

LyrArc Article Gist
Foley cites a recent survey by the Zhejiang Academy of Social Sciences shown in the South China Morning Post. This survey shows 96% of respondents "resenting the rich." In 2007, the Asian Development Bank estimated the Gini coefficient for China at 0.47%, up from 0.28% in 1983, same as Sweden, Japan and Germany. Now its closer to Argentina and Mexico. This is happening as less than 70% of graduates have jobs. And a peculiar situation is occurring in China where the retail prices are not increasing but prices of real estate and of commodities like iron ore and oil are high. There is too much liquidity with $1.5 trillion of governmet manadated bank lending and inflation is rising creating a speculative bubble in stock and real estate. And there are protectionist pressures with the USA sensing that cheap imports subsidized by artificially low currency in China is worsening America's trade deficit.

LyrArc Article Gist
How India finds and trains its youngest sports athletes is shown in this report from Fatehabad by Andrew Amson. A bricklayer's daughter Pooja set the Indian national record at 1.82 metres in high jump by winning silver at the Asian U-20 Games in South Korea. The amazing thing is that coaches discovered her talent for jumping even though she entered in training for yoga. With limited facilities she trained with bundles of haysticks for the pit to fall on and a bamboo stick to go over. This is also a story of how India is matching the development of sports of its neighbors Japan, China and South Korea by giving young people from every background and income level a chance to compete at the highest level. 

LyrArc Article Gist
Efforts by president Macron to setup a meeting between Rouhani of Iran and president Trump in New York to reduce tensions of miscalculation and disproportionate response after the attacks on Saudi oil facilities by drones and missiles. Macron says the "maximum pressure" sanctions placed by the U.S. are resulting in Iran placing "maximum pressure" on its neighbors. The Yemen civil war is fought by proxy.  One outcome appears to be the Houthi rebels backed by Iran in Yemen announcing a unilateral ceasefire. And the Saudis announcing a ceasefire of their own. This gives the European Union, the U.S., Saudis, Iran, China and Japan, time to consider the implications of the counterproductive approaches of the different sides to give enough room for new talks. Iran nuclear deal, U.S. relations with Iran, and any new talks on these issues are now seen in a different way. The nuclear deal is now linked with other issues in the region, including building peace in the region. Countries that depend on oil flowing through the Straits of Hormuz such as Japan, China, South Korea, and India are now also involved as silent partners pushing for peace in the region.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The Centres for Disease Control agency in the U.S. was unprepared for this pandemic in the early period from January to March. This report in the NYT shows how the agency failed to respond effectively in the early days leading to the loss of lives now past 100,000. When travelers arrived at U.S. airports in February from China carrying the virus with them these flights were diverted to selected airports with CDC conducted screening but the screening proved to be defective. Health officils desperate to set up isolation and quarantine could not act because the information provided was not accurate and missed many details resulting in the inability to quarantine early and isolate clusters as other countries Germany and South Korea have done.

LyrArc Article Gist
Olaf Scolz, Germany's Vice Chancellor and Minister of Finance, since 2018. He  wants to counter the myth that individual success is always self-made. As candidate for the Social Democrats he is the leading candidate to succeed Merkel. Scolz believes in genuine "respect." If elected chancellor he will take Germany in a new direction after the Merkel years marked by neglect of infrastructure, increased division among Germans and fragmentation of parties, addressing euro currency issues left behind by her mentor CDU chancellor Helmut Kohl, poor migrant policy that divided German opinion, lack of social mobility for working class Germans, and failing families in childcare, other services.  Biden in the US, Scolz in the European Union, could offer an opportunity for combining the strength of Europe and the US in tackling the problems the world faces today- restructuring supply chains, reducing divisions sown through neglect of families and the working class, climate change, competing with an assertive China using western technology and resources. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Biden looks set to having DJT at the White House and attending his Inauguration. He has accomplished much says Pat Schumer, Minority Leader in the US Senate. He also believe it or not looks quite healthy and active, and likely to look like that a few short years hence in 2027-2028. It gives Biden who did in one term for Covid response and vaccines, infrastructure investment and rebuilding America, withdrawal from foreign wars, what has never been done before in just 4 years, an opportunity to enjoy life after 40 years of public service. And by letting DJT tackle issues of Border and fentanyl flows from Mexico and China in the first 2 years, of unfair trade that have not been resolved for decades, so that America can benefit from the the best of both parties resources and strengths. Contrary to what so called "smart heads" say the two party system is working by engaging people in an ongoing vigorous debate and bringing fresh faces into public service.