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Brinkmauer and Pfister of the German magazine Der Spiegel interview German Chancellor Angela Merkel in September 2017. The interview covers a range of topics from whether Merkel is addicted to power, why she chose to run for a fourth term, revolving door for CDU politicians as lobbyists for the automobile industry, the AfD right wing party, the refugee crisis and the CDU's historic policy of controlled immigration, and whether democracy is losing strength.  In characteristic Merkel fashion the chancellor takes up the idea of her addiction to power by saying she is careful not to let this happen to her by reading critical articles in the press and having her staff bring critical reports. Her discussion with her constituents in her electoral district are also frank and open, more so in 2017. About the idea that Helmut Kohl's fourth term as chancellor being not good for Germany and for the CDU, Merkel responds that she has given it considerable thought. She found that she still has the intellectual curiosity to learn new things, understands that she has much to learn about how the country and the world is changing. This has been decisive in her decision to run.  Merkel believes that someone who has worked in politics should be able to work in private industry following historic practice in Germany. On the government links with the automobile industry Merkel says her approach has been to look at what was best for an industry employing 800,000 people in Germany, yet deplores the diesel emissions cheating at VW. Has democracy lost momentum after the U.S. elections and the refugee crisis? Merkel says democracy is still strong, and that she will do everything to strengthen democracy in Germany and other parts of the world.  Merkel's view is that it is important that there be counterweights in democratic systems. In this way democracy is strong in America, and also in Poland and Hungary. The chancellor cites high voter turnout of 82% in 1998, 79% in 2002, 78% in 2009. Since then she says in 2009 it dropped to 71% and 2013  72%, yet  expects that with the issues in this election people will come out to vote in larger numbers.  For many years Merkel is seen as co-opting the issues of the left parties and the SPD, being careful to move to the centre. Der Spiegel puts this idea forward to the chancellor by asking her if she is the best SPD chancellor Germany ever had.  In her matter of fact style Merkel responds that voters do not think of it this way, simply expect her to her job as best as she can possibly do it.       ...

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Boeing takes a six month extension on the 787 dreamliner, competitor Airbus's A350 designed to compete with it won't be ready till 2013. Boeing has $100 billion in orders for the Dreamliner which uses new composite materials, more efficient engines, bigger windows and better humidity and air quality.

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Tom Hanks and Robin Wright in the movie "Here" a technical experiment in deaging and new kind of cinematography different from the past. Robin Wright's vision of growing up as adults in the 1960's, the period John F. Kennedy was campaigning in 1956 and in 1960 in Wisconsin, with radio the main medium and life moving slowly. There is this image from a writer in Wisconsin about that time when John Kennedy turned up at a supermarket in suburbs of Wisconsin to talk to customers for his Wisconsin campaign, and with Robert Kennedy also in the store, Mrs Kennedy takes a microphone and talks to customers at the store about JFK's campaign.  A new spirit of social change was being felt in the air when Kennedy represented this not just for America but for the Free World across Asia, Latin America, and Africa. It is this optimism that America felt and reaches out for again. It is also a period of optimism in the US and the Free World, a spirit John Kennedy really captured. The FDR-Truman period laid behind the chapter of excesses of capitalism and Roosevelt's response, Truman set the Free World's response to the Soviets, Eisenhower period completed the Interstate Highway System but was stagnant in other respects. It is this Wisconsin campaign that put Kennedy on the map for the Democratic nomination in 1960 with a new feeling in the air about what America could really aspire to and aspire for. ...

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Researchers David Autor of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Gordon Hanson of the University of California, San Diego, and David Dorn of the Center for Monetary and Fiscal Studies in Madrid, in independent research, studied the impact of trade on 722 clusters of interrelated counties in the U.S. They focussed on the surge in Chinese imports and found a pattern. Counties with higher exposure to Chinese import growth showed higher unemployment and higher expenditures by the government for unemployment benefits, food stamps and disability benefits. Their calculations show the increased government payments amount to one to two thirds of the gains from trade with China. This does not include the losses suffered by people losing jobs who deplete savings as they look for new jobs. Hanson studied the effects of trade and Chinese imports in the 1990's and found the effects were relatively small. This time the effects are large and show counties that lacked local investments in industrial machinery and technologies in which China was still playing catchup such as Caterpillar in Peoria, Illinois, and Boeing in Everett, Washington, were most susceptible to higher jobless rates and in need of government support payments. Autor and Hanson found that from 2000-2007, communities in the 75th percentile- ones with greater exposure to Chinese import growth than 75% of all communities- saw a manufacturing jobless rate of about one-third more than communities in the 25th percentile. The government payments mean higher taxes or larger deficits are needed to support these communities, and long periods of unemployment reduce the incentive to work. Michael Spence, a Nobel prize winning economist from New York University, says the world has never seen such a rapid pace of growth as China experienced between 2000-2011, with rates approaching 12% in some years, making past experience and prevailing theories on trade an insufficient guide to what is happening....

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After repeated efforts to open up Mexico's oil industry in the last decade by the PAN party and stalling by the PRI opposition, Mexico finally makes the sorely needed changes to its constitution which will allow foreign oil companies to compete with Pemex. In Dec. 2013 the PRI Nieto government and the PAN join together for the two thirds majority in Congress to change 3 key articles in Mexico's constitution- 25, 27, 28. These articles are vestiges from an earlier era of nationalistic oil laws following the nationalization of the oil industry by President Cardenas in 1938. Brazil under president Cardoso opened up its oil industry by passing consitutional amendments in 1997, allowing foreign oil comapnies to compete with Petrobras. Argentina is in the process of attracting western oil companies to develop its shale oil reserves. Mexico faces the prospect of becoming a oil importer by 2020 if oil production remains stagnant at current levels of 2.5 million barrels a day, creating a new urgency for action. Pemex officials say Pemex can only come up with $25 billion a year of the $60 billion needed to develop Mexico's deep water reserves and shale oil and gas reserves. Under new legislation Mexico will allow profit-sharing contracts, production-sharing contracts, and licenses where foreign oil companies would pay royalties and taxes to the government. A major change supported by the PAN party is setting up a sovereign oil fund modeled on the Norwegian Oil Fund to send part of the oil income into long-term savings and pensions. A trust run by Mexico's autonomous central bank will manage the fund, according to a final draft. The changes are important for the Mexcian economy to increase the growth rate, and coupled with other changes for competitiveness and anti-monopoly legislation in the domestic economy. Additional changes coming from the Pacto de Mexico to the education system and other areas, form a major bipartisan effort for the first time in Mexico's recent history to improve Mexico's competitiveness in the global economy....

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After making headlines the issue of TikTok is no longer making news. Here is what has happened since- TikTok took the case to the Supreme Court after the Biden Administration's effort to bring it under US security with American ownership. The Supreme Court ruled in favor of the government. Social media helped Republicans and DJT in the election. DJT wanted TiTok to be an American company if it was to operate in US. China was opposed to this and would not allow ByteDance the owner of TikTok negotiate this-leading to an impasse. The DJT administration worked out a relationship  with China by September 2025 following tit for tat tariffs in May 2025. Xi's strategy was to put rare earths on the table after it had gained a 90% monopoly on rare earths processing technologies and supplies. Some supplies include a site in Greenland, so that the Greenland issue as opponents of US acquisition have made appear is not fiction. DJT Administration pulled back and negotiated a deal with China but realized how the US had left key gaps in its security which is why the Greenland issue came up in 2025. Similar to how Democrat president Harry Truman had done as the Soviets expanded influence in Greece and Turkey by 1948. Little of this making it to almost the entire US press and the entire European press, including Democrat Harry Truman's 1947 offer of $100 million ($1.5 billion in 2026) for Greenland, rights, title and ownership similar to Alaska purchase by Seward, and US Virgin Islands purchase in 1916 from Denmark.   The deal makes TikTok an American/ China investor run company with Byte Dance ownership of 20%, Oracle 15%, Silverlake US equity firm 15%, Abu Dhabhi (UK type) MGX 15%, and prior investors 30%. Prior investors are General Atlantic, SIG, Steve Case's Revolution with JD Vance having equity, Dragoneer, NJJ Capital. The company now valued at $20 billion based on 200 million US users. Yet this does not address the dangers and damage done by social media hours for youth in the US, endless hours from education shifted to phones and social media videos. Australia has banned it for under 16 year olds, UK parliament has voted to ban, French parliament has also voted for a ban, China has strict rules that protect its youth for use specifying hours and restrictions, leaving the US and India, Brazil vulnerable to dangers of social media. Strictly speaking You Tube is considered as social media even though it serves an information function, Facebook and TikTok are where a lot of the damage to education takes place in social media. US is entirely leaving its young people especially women unprotected. Once the fentanyl issue is tackled attention will again focus on these dangers to creating good citizens in the US  with civic education if democracy is to be preserved, something endless numbers of lobbyists- which even in Teddy Roosevelt's and FDR's, JFK's days have opposed- will again oppose.     ...

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The US Federal Reserve Report on Economic Wellbeing of US Households 2024-May 2025 gives some insights into the well being of American households. It shows food insufficiency households the same in 2023-2025 at 7%. The situation for cost of living remains a concern in 2024 as well as 2025. Retirement savings have improved for many middle class Americans, as confirmed by reports from Fidelity and Vanguard. The people earning less than 25,000 are 19% and about the same in 2024 under Biden as under DJT in 2025. 39% make $100,000 or more and 26% make $50,000 -$100,000. Combining the 19% making less than $25,000 and the 16% making between $25,000 and $50,000 shows about one third of the population under $50,000 living paycheck to paycheck. It would appear that $2000 DJT rebate putting $160 billion out of $550 billion of tariff revenues for 2025-2026  in the hands of 79 million households that make less than $100,000 would go a long way to keep the situation stable with optimism and hope arising from the restructuring of world trade that would bring trillions of dollars of investment into the US from Europe and Asia. A this investment plus domestic investment should bring back jobs and higher incomes to US manufacturing in small towns across America. The rest of $550 billion tariff revenue of $390 billion would go to reducing the deficit which would improve prospects for the economy in 2027 and produce a more resilient economy in 2027-2028. As shown on this page the popular Democratic Governor of Michigan in her op-ed in Washington Post supports strategic tariffs, and supports using the revenue for a check to American workers of $2000 per worker or per worker household and offers to work with the opposite party to get a WIN-WIN for the American People.  In the whole process of trade tariffs it must be remembered when seeing the inconsistent cases of tariff use by this Republican administration that these were special reason situations not aberrations or whimsical. First, it should be borne in mind that behind the appearance of DJT making tariff decisions is a carefully thought out process that took ten years to form under Reagan era Trade Representative Lighthizer who negotiated with Japan, and his deputy Jamieson for 2016-2024, and the economic and capital markets experience of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary. The two cases of inconsistent application of tariffs relate to the 50% tariff on India and the reduction of tariffs on China agreement on rare earths, and the imposition of a large tarif on Japan and the EU. In the first instance with India it was intended to give Ukraine breathing room from Russian attacks as Germany steps up its military preparedness and assistance to Ukraine. With both countries it was about saving face important in Asian or any societies and it has achieved it's purpose. Reports show both Indian and Chinese refiners have quietly cut purchases of oil from Russia leading to Russian oil selling at about $20 discount to Brent crude oil. In the case of Japan the quick action to raise tariffs was intended not to get into long drawn negotiations and show serious intent- Japan is known for dragging out negotiations for years if not decades. The same is true for the European Union. With the Swiss it was about a certain disrespect of the US coming from attitudes that Swiss products were somehow superior. Not just in the long run, in 2026-2028 history will show that the effort done right - and it takes effort to get this right- to restructure world trade so that other nations are not siphoning off the benefits and leaving the US to lose its manufacturing and factories is the right one. And taken with courage and sincere desire to create a fair distribution of the benefits of world trade for too long distorted by egregious practices of competitors. It has nothing to do with 2 senators from the 1930's who were from places like the Mountain West in the US, having no concept of world trade, Smoot and Hawley, who under a irresponsible president Hoover got everything wrong. This is a carefully set out plan to evenly balance the benefits of world trade to all nations.   ...

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Trofimov provides this report on the conflict in Syria and Iraq. Islamic state fighters from other countries are paid $800 per month compared to $400 for local fighters in Syria and Iraq. Fighters in the Free Syrian Army are paid $100 by comparison. Many of the fighters coming from Russia, western countries, and Arab countries see this as part of a visionary effort to create a new Islamic society, an experiment of sorts. In the process dislocating many of the local population and turning them into refugees going to Turkey and Jordan. Many of the 20,000 fighters crossing into the region from the Syrian border are veterans of other conflicts and bring previous experience. The Syrian city of Raqqa is described here by Trofimov as dominated by these fighters with much of the local Syrian population turned into refugees.

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Krauthammer says President Obama has failed to come out openly in support of the Bowles-Simpson commission's recommendations on deficit reduction. The recommendations were made in December 2011. The President's February 2011 budget did not take up these recommendations. He gets a sense that there is too much electioneering in the Obama posture on deficit reduction- being in the best position for the 2012 presidential election rather than a sincere effort. He suggests the Republicans pursue a short term debt ceiling hike of $500 billion containing $500 billion in budget cuts by passing this in the House. And couple this with a call to follow the Simpson-Bowles recommendations which, in one option, cut $1.1 trillion of deductions, credits and loopholes while lowering tax rates across the board to a top rate of 23%. This would give enough time to come up with a thoughtful and open effort with public scrutiny, and is preferable to the current closed door negotiations without the deliberations necessary for decisions of such far reaching consequences. Failing this there is the McConnell Plan B. Boles- Simpson focussed on tax expenditures as a key part of their plan. Martin Feldstein and other experts also point to limiting or eliminating "tax expenditures" (the deductions and loopholes that reduce revenues) as a key part of the solution to the U.S. deficit problem....

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Former U.S. Treasury secretary Robert Rubin talks to Charlie Rose about the August 2 Debt Ceiling and Deficit legislation. He says there are two constructive things about the legislation. There are no serious cuts in 2011 and 2012, so there will be almost no loss in demand as spending cuts do not affect the immediate 18 month period. Former Treasury Secretary Summers also makes this point. And that the cuts include defense and non-defense. He favors the approach of the Bowles-Simpson Commission. On the overall situation Rubin points out the importance of getting a real public discussion going about what this means, what the consequences of decisions made now. Especially important for Rubin is public understanding of the importance of setting up a serious deficit reduction program that sets the date of implementation a couple of years into the future to give time to get back on track, and the need for increased revenues. A useful point Rubin makes is that the question of jobs and the question of getting into a sound position fiscally are really the same question. He cites his experience in 1993 when he helped President Clinton setup and implement a deficit reduction program- which had half spending cuts and half revenue increases. Bowles-Simpson Commission recommendations for closing loopholes for tax expenditures and Martin Feldstein's similiar proposal for limiting the deductions and exclusions to 2% of Adjusted Gross Income offer an option that creates revenues without any tax increases....

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Florida's House of Representatives passed a bill in March that reduces the number of weeks of unemployment benefits from the standard 26 weeks to 20 weeks. A similar law was passed in Michigan recently. Both states have unemployment rates exceeding 10%.

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Costs and benefits to GM from the deal with Delphi. What the UAW is giving up and gets in return. Benefits to GM in the long run in cost savings from Delphi purchased auto parts of about $12 billion a year. It also takes away the uncertainty about Delphi off of GM's shoulders.

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Information about the supply of services to the oil industry, including engineering professionals, from supply services company Schlumberger. Investment in petroleum exploration and production is expected to be $178 billion, a 10% increase over $162 billion in 2004, according to an estimate by Schlumberger's CEO, Mr. Gould, from figures published by energy companies. Gould personally thinks it will be higher. Mr. Smith CEO of John Herold , an oil industry consulting firm said that one oil industry executive told an industry gathering that drilling one onshore well now costs $1.5 million compared to $800,000 15 months ago. So the oil industry is getting much less for its buck with skyrocketing costs of exploration. Saudi Arabia plans to invest $50 billion over the next 5 years to expand its petroleum industry. Minister Naimi said that energy project costs have gone up by about 60%, due to shortages of engineering professionals, and equipment. To get some sense of the shortage of experienced professionals consider the figures from the American Petroleum Institute API. The oil industry peaked with 860,000 jobs in 1982, then lost 500,000 jobs by 2000. "A lot of skilled people have either been laid off, or have retired from the industry in the last 18 years," says Schlumberger's Mr. Gould. "Recruiting and training their replacements takes time and requires a global approach." ...

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Peggy Noonan describes the Trump candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination in 2016. She points out that this is a result of the public discontent and dissatisfaction with politicians, and government, which is seen as not able to get things done. She talks to one Tennessee woman in her 60's who describes in detail why she supports Trump. Trump has touched a chord with many voters because of how little they trust politicians in general, Republican, Democrat, or Libertarian, or some other type. As with the UK Independence Party this type of leader taps into resentment of illegal immigrants. In France, Spain, UK and other parts of Europe fringe parties are drawing increasing support because voters have lost faith in existing mainstream parties. In the U.S. this takes the form of discontent expressed through a fringe candidate within a mainstream party itself. Voters put up with inconsistent positions, extravagant claims and charges, just to have an alternative. And Noonan points out that this is not going away anytime soon. As 2016 comes closer the UK election offers some insights- it was thought initially that UKIP would split the Conservative vote, but the elections showed UKIP splitting the Labor vote in the north of England. Voters distrusted mainstream politicians, in the final result they distrusted Labor politicians more. ...

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Matthew Kaminski gives his assessment of Angela Merkel's years in office. He cites a former German chancellor Helmut Schmidt's words: "People who have a vision should go see a doctor." She is no Konrad Adenauer or even Helmut Kohl. A scientist by training she is dispassionate, intelligent, diligent and takes the time to understand the details of the financial situation from her advisors, then sorting out the situation in her own mind. She gets less credit for bold action than she deserves because of her down to earth manner.She gave banks no option as bondholders to share losses in late night meetings at EU headquarters, called the president of Italy and secured a change in government after Berlusconi lost the confidence of the EU. In the current impasses between the Bundesbank and the ECB's Draghi over sovereign bond purchases with Jens Weidmann, Germany's representative at the ECB, supporting Mario Draghi's position, she has navigated the fine line between the German public's reluctance to take on the debts of its neighbors in the eurozone and the need for lowering the borrowing costs of Italy and Spain to save the euro. After the visionaries from Adenauer to Monet, todays eurozone leaders are focussed more on the nuts and bolts of making this idea of Europe work, requiring the skills and ability to learn and grow that she has demonstrated....

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Public opinion in Germany now senses that politicians including Angela Merkel are reluctant to tell Germans that debt reduction has to be part of the solution for Greece, that some of the billions are lost and never coming back. They sense that Merkel and the Christian Democrats are waiting till after the elections in 2013 to bring this up directly. Even people on the street in Berlin know that Greece can never get back on its feet on the basis of spending cuts without debt reduction. The loan instalment approved in Nov. 2012 reflects the new approach of debt reduction but the German government is reluctant to talk about it. Opposition parliamentary leader Frank-Walter Steinmeier of the Social Democrats told ZDF German television: "The debt cut has not been avoided, it has been postponed to a time after the parliamentary elections. We are realistic and try to tell the people honestly and sincerely whats going on. Schauble and the present government try once more to finagle their way around the truth." Greece's debt has already reached 170% of GDP and can only go up as the economy shrinks further in year after year of recession. Norbert Barthle, a senior Christian Democrat, says if the debt reduction takes place today it sends the wrong signal to all the program countries, reducing the pressure for reforms and changes....