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Follow the latest on BBC News as Biden promises a "peaceful and orderly transition," and lauds the integrity of the US election process.

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The US tariff on China made EV"s imported into the US is 100%. The EU has a 10% tariff. It has now imposed additional tariffs that range from 17% to 38% depending on its investigation with Chinese companies on how much support they get from the Chinese government as hidden subsidies. This move is to level the playing field. The result is that BYD faces a 17% tariff because it has operated relatively on its own. For Geely and SAIC it goes up to 38%. The tariff on European companies making EV's in China and exporting them is additional 21%. US carmakers (GM and Ford) have only a small presence in the Chinese car market compared to the Europeans who  make and sell 3 million luxury cars in the Chinese market (BMW, Audi, Mercedes Benz). About 25% of EV's sold in Europe are now China made EV's. The EU wants to level the playing field so that local makers maintain a strong presence in their home markets. The US with no significant car manufacturing presence in China of Ford, GM to protect is taking stronger action. ...

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Geetanjali Shree win the International Booker prize for the best fiction novel translated from other languages into English. Her book Reti Samadhi is about an older woman coping with the effects of the 1947 partition of India and has what Geetanjali Shree calls the meandering mind of women spanning 725 pages in Hindi. "Woman are stories in themselves, full of stirrings and whisperings that float in the wind, that bend with each blade of grass," says Shree in the opening pages of the novel. Shree writes about a teenager who goes through the traumatic experience of partition as a teenager and experiencing depression at an older age decides to confront the experience by going to the place where it happened a second time. Shree is from Mainpuri, Uttar Pradesh (UP).  UP a Hindi speaking state is getting into the international field as the experiences of the region are being shared in other languages. It is now at the forefront of rapid development in India under the Modi administration and a state administration that sees India's largest state in an international context. Bringing Hindi, its tone and rhythm, and the style and exuberance of the author to a English reader, is a challenge that was handled well by Daisy Rockwell of the US. ...

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COSCO, CATL, Tencent and COMAC are companies that are added to a list of companies that are military in nature by the US Defense Department. This is signalling by the US government that regulatory actions can be anticipated, and inhibits investment from the US and EU.

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Compare AI models for versions v2 v3 by DeepSeek that cost $5.6 million with Anthropic AI model that cost $100 million+, and one gets the order of magnitude in cost for the new DeepSeek China model vs its US counterparts.  The hundreds of billions of dollars that OpenAI and big spenders such as Google, Meta, and Microsoft would have to drain capital markets would be a disaster for workers and families in the US and the standard of living, the infrastructure improvements that don't get done, and the investments in transportation and other vital needs such as schools, education and healthcare that directly impact the cost of living and the standard of quality of life in America and other countries. This is where competing models from China, from India, and from European countries can get us back to where we want to be to continue improving the cost of living and standard of living, quality of life in America for workers and families. This is the choice workers and families made in 2020 and in 2025, rejecting the wasted resources in wars that serve no purpose, and rebuilding the Nation's infrastructure, its water, schools, transportation, healthcare, childcare.  ...

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More evidence that the liquidity provided by the ECBZ is not reaching small business and the other parts of the econmic system where it is needed. Banks are reluctant to lend for fear borrowers might default. Meanwhile the ECB mopped up $250 billion or $170 billion euros in overnight funds from the money market, by paying 0.8% instead of the overnight rate of 0.5%.

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Crime by violent street gangs with whole sections of cities controlled by different groups, some a remnant of the guerilla wars, has fueled the migration crisis. Many people have left central American countries of San Salvador, Costa RIca, Guatemala, because of the crime and extortion experienced and the lack of law and order in these countries. Criminal violence by these gangs hurts business which leads to even fewer economic opportunities for young people. This leads to a steady flow of migrants to the borders of Mexico trying to enter the U.S. Experts say 95% of homicides in these central American countries are not tackled, with severe distrust of police.  There are fewer emigrants from Mexico as the economy has improved and population growth has slowed. Most of the faces of migrants are now from the Central American countries. A program is underway to create jobs skills in Honduras. But this a small effort in tackling a much bigger problem of violence, lack of economic opportunity, and the legacy of the civil wars in central America in an earlier period that have left whole sections of urban areas under control of former guerillas and militia turned into gangs.  ...

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How much is the drop in sales of light trucks, including truck based SUV's? Acttually not much so far, title is misleading! 2004- 55.7% of total vehicle sales 2005- 54.9% of total vehicle sales 2006 1st quarter- 53.8 % of total vehicle sales source: Autodata, NYT cite For GM in April 2006 situation according to GM figures Overall Light Truck sales up 1.5% Escalade up 127% Tahoe up 30% Overall GM down 7.3% in all vehicle sales in April source Ward's AutoInfo Bank But the mix weighted toward the Escalade, Tahoe, and new SUV's which are non-incentive and priced to meet demand, which mean higher profits to make up for lost volume in cars. This is occurring in the middle of bigger changes, and as GM moves to introduction of more fuel efficient cars with better quality and appeal to younger demographics. GM is restructuring to transform itself into a global company with growing Asian sales and shifting volumes overseas. It is shifting employee and capital base to more countries overseas to create new opportunities and make GM a new and different company, a global company. Incentives pay part of the gas price for buyers, and more fuel efficient SUV's also chip in to pay gas costs. Americans are not out to get off the SUV's just yet, as fuel effficiency standards go up.The investments oil companies are making are expected to provide a payoff in increased production by 2008-2009, and the new oil policy of Saudi Arabia kicks in (see Naimi at CSIS 2006 meeting). The situation eases up for families accustomed to carrying kids around or hauling stuff around. See also links to Tradin Frenzy (Mouawad, NYT, 4/29/06) speculators in oil markets cause 10-20% of price rise, could lead to drops later after ethanol part of spike eases, and if global demand drops with economies cooling off a bit. ...

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Microsoft will be taking a $1.2 billion charge to earnings related to severance costs for 10,000 layoffs, as it prepares to do with fewer workers in a slowing economy. Tech took a larger part of US investments than warranted leaving public investments in infrastructure unfunded or underfunded. This is reversing as the US makes a push in infrastructure spending and in new factory investments in manufacturing.

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Ketanji Jackson is confirmed by the US Senate 53 to 47 as US Supreme Court Justice. She takes the place of Justice Breyer who retires this year. This leaves the Supreme Court at 6 conservatives to 3 liberal members of the court, favoring conservatives following appointments by president Trump.

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Iran and Houthi rebels in Yemen seeking to enlarge the Gaza response of Israel into a wider regional conflict. The US under Biden seeking to limit the contours of the conflict and convince Israel to end its invasion of Gaza. Shipping lanes in the Red Sea and the Suez Canal are affected as Maersk now sends its ships around the Horn of Africa. The US and UK warships tackle a recent barrage of attacks on shipping in the Red Sea last week and the US says it will respond to keep theshipping lanes open for Suez and the Red Sea. The WSJ shows these shipping lanes and the impact.

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The Trump economic plan would use tariffs as a tool to get foreign companies to make in the US. It does not include incentives to American companies to create American jobs that won't be offshored and would be expanded, and keep American technologies and incentive based expansion with American companies. In this sense Trump's economic policies are indifferent to whether it helps American companies or not. Biden/Harris are determined to make it America that controls its own destiny. Why would foreign companies care about expansion and building America's leadership in technologies in the Free World, they would use their technologies in their own national interests. Even when they build factories for Chips as TMC of Taiwan is doing in Arizona they do so skeptical of the power of US engineering.  A holistic plan is missing when American leadership is turned over to foreign companies. Biden-Harris would use tax revenues from corporations to give them the best infrastructure and logistics in the world that supports their growth. This alone would add to America's growth by 1+ percentage points considering what we see in Indian growth with or without the best infrastructure. America's infrastructure is dilapidated. Trump lacks a plan to invest trillions of dollars in new infrastructure as Biden-Harris are doing. ...

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1.1 million EVs were sold in US in 2024, compared to 1.4 million hybrids. Hybrids have made a comeback as sales of electric cars are slowing in US in 2024. Constraints being lack of enough charging stations, price of electric cars still high, driving range limited before recharge. Hybrid car sales are surging helping Toyota after a too cautious entry into EV's. Now the Biden administration is looking at the targets and how to make the transition smoother. Toyota is pushing back on strict environmental rules that expect 67% of cars to be electric by 2032.  The 2021 executive order by president Biden was for 50% target by 2030 and this included hybrids.  The gradual shift would make it less costly for the public to replace the cars and help first time buyers wanting to try it out do this with hybrids as an option. As a quick guide 12000 pounds of carbon dioxide for global warming are given out by gasoline only cars, half or 6000 pounds by hybrids like Toyota's, and half again 3000 pounds of carbon dioxide by all electric like BYD China's or Tesla/GM/VW. The actual numbers are confirmed by Dept of Energy 2022, and MIT 2019 studies- 2727 pounds all electric, 6898 pounds hybrid, and 12594 pounds all gasoline. ...

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What US companies did not get early on is that as China's economy advanced local companies could make the same products for less and innovate to take a big share of the market. Ford exited China and GM took  $5 billion charge on its China business. Chinese makers of cars, EV's, laptops and cell phones have the major share of the market. In 2024 US companies chastened by their experience and failing to compete in China are reticent about tariffs impacting their market share in China. Other reasons China was growing at over 10% in the last year of Obama's second term. In 2024 China is struggling to reach 5%.  Following Covid, housing industry collapse, as US and Europe block China's exports, China's public is growing wary of spending. There are only 800 Americans studying in China in 2024 compared to 11,000 in 2019. There are 290,000 Chinese students in US. ...

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Fearing instability within their own kingdom Saudis take a cautious view of the protests in Iran. UAE take a different view and supports the US. 

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The US economy is showing a stronger services sector in 2023 as demand for goods slows, manufacturing slows, and there is more spending on travel, leisure and in hospitality sectors. This is shown by recent S&P Global Surveys.

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One in six dollars generated by the U.S. economy goes to pay for health care, almost twice the average for rich countries. It hurts America in many ways; by being a burden on the taxpayer when it comes to Medicare and Medicaid paying for the poor and the elderly, on companies being one reason GM went bankrupt, it eats up federal and state budgets, rising costs make any form of future coverage for all unsustainable, and it robs other priorities such as infrastructure building and other national scale investments. The Economist says that if it had to design a system from scratch, it would go for a system based mostly around publicly funded health care. For the uninsured the solution of an employer mandate is now well accepted, so this is not an issue. What is an issue is how to make the new system affordable? Here the Economist says that whether in stages or in one move, the tax deductability of employer paid health insurance, which is costing the U.S. government $250 billion ayear, has to go. It is necessary to remove this deduction, and its something all interests involved will have to swallow, as other savings are smaller and will not be adequate. The deductability of insurance makes the true cost of insurance transparent, so it supports gold plated insurance. This does not make cost control the pressing priority it needs to be. So the deducatability of employer paid health insurance hurts both ways. The other necessary action is in the area of moving out of the current culture where most doctors work on a fee-for-service basis, where the more tests they prescribe or procedures they perform the greater their incomes. This acts as a perverse incentive, and has aruinous effect in mushrooming health care costs in America. Cutting back on unnecessary tests and procedures, and prescriptions , would save 10% to 30% of health costs says the Economist. And it says this has been proven with the Mayo Clinic in Minnesota and Kaiser Permanente in California showing that cutting back doesn't hurt care and outcomes., so much so that cutting back would occur along with improved outcomes. But Americans with employer paid insurance just take things for granted as its not much out of pocket expense for them. THis creates the lack of a force for controlling costs even as employers are shouldering abigger and bigger burden, and the employee who thinks he is doing fine actually is seeing more of his salary dollars going to pay for his health insurance. In a way the consumers of health care are stuck with the perception that they are not somehow paying for these mushrooming costs and too manytests, procedures and prescriptions. This perception leads them a false sense of comfort with the system they are in, and a fear of something new fanned by the medical lobbies, that any change will impact users negatively. This makes the whole discussion on health care or the process of finding solutions to become an exericize in which terms like "rationing" and "choice" play a distorting role. ...

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The UK's effort to protect its pharmaceutical exports of $8 billion and auto exports of $7 billion in trade talks with the US. Reeves will meet Scott Bessent in Washington DC.

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The astounding fact in this French FR24 report on the Paris Climate Change Agreement and country carbon emissions show that China's emissions accelerated to rise 3 fold in 2015 to about 12 billion tons of carbon emissions from about 4 billion in 2000. US remains at about 6 billion. India is at about 3 billon tons of carbon emissions, about where China was in 2000 when it had about 4 billion tons of carbon emissions. This is shown in the graph on carbon emissions from FR24. The US, European Union graph curves on tons of carbon emissions since 2000 are all flat or declining, India rising slowly from a small base, China's curve is rising straight up from a large enough base at an unbelievable and dangerous rate. What has happened and is it getting worse? China's economy expanded too quickly as globalization was accelerated by banks, and business in the US and Europe, and by the Chinese governments at the local level and the state level. This had negative consequences for US, Europe and China. The too fast growth in China at rates of 10-15% based solely on False GDP indicators that did not take into account damage to the environment and workers was that it hurt manufacturing and working class in US and Europe and contaminated the environment. This was not like growth of Japan in 1960-1980, a smaller country in the way it affected the US and European working classes. Hyper Growth at 10-15% of a large country with 1 billion people compressed over a short period, is cited by Greg Ip in the WSJ as the cause of the negative impact on America.  It hurt China through pollution of rivers and land at an accelerated pace. It hurt China as trade with US and Europe became unsustainable with the loss of manufacturing in the US and Europe leading to a trade war. From these graphs of emissions it now appears that the 3 fold rise in carbon emissions from about 4 billion tons in 2000 to about 12 billion tons in 2015 is the result of unregulated business activity of all those who preferred to push hyper growth in China purely for reasons of profit such as investment banks and corporations in US, Europe, and state or local companies in China.  This has also aggravated inequality in US, Europe and China, and hurt rural populations. Xi Jinping is attempting to correct this in China, Biden is trying to correct this in the US, and Scholz will now attempt to correct this in Germany and the European Union. It is also to be noted that China in 2000-2015 did not have the benefit of the newer technologies that India now has access to, which is why India says it is able to reduce carbon emissions per each unit of GDP by 35% from 2005 levels by 2030. It is this efficiency in producing units of GDP with newer and newer technologies that China lacked in its period of hyper growth 2000-2015 that now looks to have hurt China- with overflow of highly polluting steel mills and other factories which it would prudently and wisely have cut back on. Looking back at this period one sees the wholesale transfer of highly polluting plants in Germany being sold and put up in China, a poor developing country in 2000. Was this a good decision for Germany or for China? In this way the banks and large corporations in the US and Europe who use economic indicators that are limited such as dollar profits, without overall indicators that include negative effect damage to the environment that requires huge investments to correct, problems of trade wars leading to political conflicts, are acting like a person walking blindly in one direction.  With some foresight China and all its trading partners would have done better with slower but more careful Chinese growth of 7-8% that would have better met societal goals in US, Europe and China, avoiding high carbon emissions segments of industries from Day 1. Jinping is doing this in China, and Biden is doing this in the US- cutting out highly polluting factories and segments of industries- but in a climate of mutual distrust, which could have benefitted the world when conducted in a climate of cooperation and trust. The pandemic made the situation even more difficult. Power shortages in factories and blackouts in Chinese cities have led to a reversal of policies on use of coal in China months before the COP26 Glasgow conference and G-20 summit leaving a huge gap. Without the presence of Xi Jinping at COP26 in Glasgow and with Chinese participation uncertain significant progress on climate change is elusive. Estimates by US Renewable Energy Agency is that it would cost $131 trillion to pay for limiting emissions to global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius. Some major share of this cost can be attributed to the increase from about 4 billion tons in 2000 of carbon emissions in China to about 12 billion tons in 2015, increase by 3 times. One can clearly see from this sudden jump in carbon emissions in China that policies of hyper growth with unregulated polluting industries adding to GDP growth figures was bad policy for China, bad policy for US, and Europe, even if it offered temporary profits for individual companies. India has the advantage of learning from this experience and charting its own wiser course as a partner with US, Europe and Japan and by Modi's vigorous efforts in renewable energy. The lesson- look at all indicators of progress, including climate and society, not just economic indicators in profit or dollar terms, take the tough decisions early in regulating polluting companies and industry segments, and bring full and active public participation with transparent access to data on climate damaging activity in real time because climate and the environment we live in free of polluting substances belongs to all the people, belongs to all life on the planet from trees to animals and birds, not companies that can choose to ignore it. ...

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This piece in the Hindusthan Times reminds us that it is not failure or success that determine our future and the quality of our life, but the way we respond. It takes the lines from Rudyard Kipling about both being impostors- "if you can meet triumph and disaster,  and treat both impostors just the same..." Experts say the important thing in both success and failure is to understand what one did wrong, and take corrective action. Some go as far as to say failure is an event, and it ended yesterday. This is the way athletes and other people who overcome challenges that we read about have approached a failure or disaster. Some overcome physical handicaps with such grit that we find our failure to be tiny by comparison. Take for instance an athlete with burns on his feet from a fire, who is told he can never walk again, and he comes back to win an Olympics gold medal in running. This is a true story from the 1936 Olympics of Glenn Cunningham who won the 1500 metres gold medal. ...

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No one in Northern Ireland wants to go back to the sectarian clashes of the twentieth century says one resident of the region. Most people recall the divided barricaded border with watchtowers and helicopters with extreme anguish. All that was dismantled long ago. But Northern Ireland still looks to the outside for help. Will president Biden bring new investment in the region? Can the Sinn Fein and DUP be persuaded to work together with US participation. A new generation has moved away from the sectarian to the economic issues of the cost of living and provision of public services in education and healthcare across the region. This was affirmed by Sinn Fein winning 27 seats the largest bloc in the 2022 election where focus was on economic issues and the quality of life. Because of Mr. Biden's very personal connection to Ireland there is much hope in Ireland for a new chapter to be written again. There is also a different sentiment in Britain with Keir Starmer's experience as human rights adviser to the Northern Ireland Policing Board. Starmer attributes his decision to go into politics to this experience seeing the changes he could make in Northern Ireland from the inside. The switch to a government by Labour could come at a good time for Northern Ireland and for Scotland.  ...