LyrArc Article Gist
A new Pew Research Center Survey shows prime minister Modi enjoying 88% popularity, very high ratings for a world leader. More unusual is that Modi's popularity was 87% in a Pew Survey in 2015, showing extraordinary resilience. This comes after moves to remove the large denomination rupee notes under what is called demonetization to take out some of the black money in India and increase tax revenues that were lost due to evasion. In South Asia tax evasion is rampant, much more than in countries like Italy of the eurozone. The move was difficult as it required being sudden, and a shift to use of debit cards and ATM's which required additional effort, slowing the economy. The other moves such as on GST tax were designed to facilitate doing business in India with one tax and free movement of goods replacing different state by state taxes. Business has not responded quickly to support Modi, and the Indian economy being prepared for the long term growth Modi hopes to generate is slowing in the short term. GDP growth has dropped to 6%. A bullet train planned in western India with help from Japanese financing and technology is being criticized unfairly because of the collapse of an old bridge near a railway station in Mumbai. Bruce Stokes, Director of Global Economic Attitudes at Pew Research, says the survey was done after demonetization but before the GST tax overhaul. This is not likely to change Modi's high ratings. The GST overhaul has been on the agenda for many years for all political parties in India. The views of Modi are not necessarily the same as for his BJP party which are lower for the party, the party gaining more from Modi's efforts and leadership, including in his home state of Gujarat. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
A 108 block sidewalk renovation of a bumpy broken sidewalk in Central Park has to wait for decades for Central Park Conservancy to come forward to fix it in New York City. In today's upside down world of investment where basic infrastructure which one would take for granted is not done while tens of billions are scattered on many wasteful projects by capital markets disinvestment in ease of living in America. NYT looks at this project funded by the city and the Conservancy that will stretch for 6 miles at $600,000 a block. It took about 100 years to do this at New York's infrastructure pace, as this sidewalk was put in place in the 1930's in the early part of the last century. New Yorkers like the people of Mumbai when infrastructure was in such bad shape before today's efforts by the Modi government, have given in to the same despair about the condition of infrastructure in the city, its roads, bridges, sidewalks and other essential infrastructure in a modern economy. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The Obama administration announced a policy of increasing the number of refugees accepted in fiscal 2017 to 110,000. This will be an increase from 85,000 in 2016, and 70,000 in the prior 3 years. Secretary of State Kerry says the target is consistent  with the idea that all countries need to do more, and if we could do more we would. After 3 years of cautious policy president Obama now follows Chancellor Merkel's lead.

LyrArc Article Gist
A car the early postwar Fiat model 500 which sold 4 million cars for this one mode alone, sold 57000 cars in its new version 50 years later motly on national sentiment in Italy. This is happening in the backdrop of new small cars that are coming up at really low prices in countries like India where the Tata model is expected soon. However this Fiat is being marketed in mature markets like Europe and soon in North America. Is Fiat overlooking the huge Asian market? Interestingly costs are lowered by sharing a Polish factory that makes this car and the Fiat Panda to also make Ford's Ka model.

LyrArc Article Gist
Peter Fisher spent 15 years at the New York Fed and was actively involved in the resolution of the 1998 LTCM crisis. He is amanaging director of Black Rock. Yes interest rates were too low for too long and the Bernanke Fed's shift from the earlier era made the markets take a new hard look at the loose practices in the mortgage market leading to a crisis of confidence. There is only a 60-40 % chance that the Fed will lower rates on Sept 18. Globalization spreads risk but it can also cause the crisis to spread to all parts of the world very quickly.

LyrArc Article Gist
Matina Stevis provides this exceptional account of 3 Greek leaders who fought hard for reforms to put Greece in the right direction for euro currency membership responsibilities, and lost. They tell Stevis they were savagely attacked in the media, by labor unions, and in their own party, so that the fight came at a high personal cost. The 3 politicians now mentioned inside Greece as having done the most to ensure euro currency responsibilities were taken seriously are- Alekos Papadopoulos, who as finance minister fought with Pasok party premier Simitis in 2002 about the dangers of cheap credit coming with the euro currency, Tassos Giannitsis who as labor minister was driven out of Pasok for proposing pension reforms in 2001, and Stefanos Manos who was driven out of New Democracy Party in 1998 after warning of risks in the economy from wasteful spending, including mismanagement of railways, and proposing changes. As Greece commits to a new program under the Syriza left government as a matter of "national responsibility," with reforms to pensions, fixing tax evasion to ensure the tax burden is evenly distributed, reduced military spending, and changes in other areas, the questions in the EU about Greece are about the degree of commitment to changes. In an intervew with WSJ's Bret Stephens Tsipras is candid about the situation when he says the country on its current course would build up the debt all over again, if the debt were to be written off. Problems Tsipras cited in that interview- bribery in health care, tax evasion, burden of taxes on the middle class and honest citizens, large inefficient bureaucracy. Yet 2 years after that intervew in the WSJ, Jan. 28, 2013, Tsipras headed a Syriza government that had no proposals on tackling tax evasion, aggravating the problem of moral hazard seen by the Europeans and the IMF under Lagarde. Stefanos Manos writes in the foreword to his book that its incomprehensible how the public good is ignored by so many people who seek only individual gain. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The smaller containment design of the Mark 1 Nuclear Reactor used at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant in Japan makes it more prone to explosion and rupture from a buildup of hydrogen, according to some experts in the U.S. Nuclear Safety Program at the Union for Concerned Scientists. This design is smaller and cheaper to build but is less robust than other designs. In the U.S. there are 23 Mark 1 reactors at 16 locations, including the Oyster Creek plant in New Jersey, Dresden plant near Chicago, and Monticello plant near Minneapolis. Worldwide there are 32 such reactors in operation. The design was first developed in the 1960's by General Electric. Since then various modifications have been developed including venting systems to help reduce pressure in overheating situations.

LyrArc Article Gist
Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF, asked financial markets to give time for individual countries to use political processes to come up with solutions. She said: "It would be ideal and it would be lovely from a market perspective if it was not just currrently but immediately signed, sealed and delivered, done deal, overnight. Unfortunately, for those of you who have the privilege of belonging to democracies, things do not happen in that way and things do take time and have to go through parliamentary processes."

LyrArc Article Gist
Report from the ground giving an unbiased account by a captain in the army who served tours in Iraq and Afghanistan. He spent 7 months as aspecial advisor to the NATO director of communications. He avoide the official tours through the countryside and tried to see and hear what ordinatry Afghans were saying. He says the outbursts against the corruption in the Karzai government reveal a level of distrust that is so great that it greatly diminishes the credibility of the American effort in Afgahnistan, and increases the difficulties of the mission there. He suggests ombudsmens committees to handle complaints of corruption, and the withholding of funds to districts and government agencies that do not meet transpanrency and accountability goals.

LyrArc Article Gist
Car sales in Germany are up 40% from ayear ago. This is not about to happen in the USA. The cash for clunkers program in Germany is broad and less complicated.In Germany eligible cars have to 9 years old and the subsidy covered the purchase of any new car, regardless of size and fuel efficiency. In the US the program just signed by President Obama covers a narrow profile of customers. In the US customers who benefitare economically challenged and in the midst of adeep recession. Cars can't be over 25 years old, and can't have a combined highway and city fuel economy rating of more than 18 miles per gallon as calculated by EPA. To get the full $4500 credit customers must buy either a new truck or sport utility rated 5mpg higher than the clunker or scrapped vehicle, or a passenger car rated at least 10 mpg higher.And the credit is given instead of the trade in value, so if the trade in value is higher it doesn't help. The German government is giving away upto $4500 but it started out with 1.5 billion euros to get 600,000 clunkers off the road, but because of the popularity of the program has expanded it to 5 billion euros for 2 million cars and extended it to end of 2009. The US program only has $1 billion for 250,000 cars or one eight of what the Germans are doing for amuch larger car market. Because of the dire shape Detroit and much of the midwest is in, because of the slump in the auto industry, this may be a mistake and a missed opportunity to do what the Europeans are doing, and get an even bigger impact. The American car market and industry is taking a severe blow from the deep recession. Because of the depressed region the impact of a real clunkers for cash program that targets a broader profile, with bigger financing and designed to give a boost to the market, could make a real difference. At this point it is more of a program designed to help people turn in their gas guzzling trucks for passenger cars, and those driving a $200 car are not likely to be the kind of customer who goes out and buys a new car say dealers. See the link to Alan Blinder's stimulus proposal in July 29, 2008, that suggested a $20 billion program even before the current crisis. The present program has only $1 billion....

LyrArc Article Gist
The leaders of India and China, Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping will meet at a 2 day summit in the central Chinese city of Wuhan, China, on April 27, 2018.  The meeting is significant because for the first time the 2 leaders will meet on a one on one basis for a significant part of the time without aides to get a better understanding of each other, and a get a sense of how to establish a good relationship between the 2 countries. Ma Jiali of the China Reform Forum, a think tank affiliated with the Communist Party's Central Party School says a better relationship would serve China's interests for regional calm, so that China can focus on internal issues of tackling poverty in the interior of China, tackle economic issues arising from a difficult trading relationship with the U.S. including the tariffs of the Trump administration.  China's leadership have not anticipated the decisions made by president Trump and the Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to take a strong stand on correcting an imbalance in trade that leads to about $1 billion in trade deficit each day for the U.S. with China. Previous administrations in the U.S. have not taken action. Also at issue in the U.S. China relationship is for the first time transfer of technology for "Made in China 2025." China's earlier advances were made with a free flow of technology from the U.S. and Europe.  The last time the two leaders met was in 2014. This time the issues of border relations in the Himalayas, and the relations with China in the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean region, the growing relationship between Australia, U.S., India and Japan, are seen in a different light with the strong disagreements on trade relations with the U.S.  China sees a need for improving relations with India. Prime Minister Modi faces new elections in 2019 and the need to focus on infrastructure and development to win a second term in office for the ruling BJP Party.  A reduction in tensions serves the interest of both countries and leaders.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Italy's premier Renzi's economic policy to generate 0.8% growth in 2014, and reduce deficits by achieving higher growth rates to meet EU targets.

LyrArc Article Gist
Marchionne's major achievement is the genuine integration of Fiat's operations with Chrysler's operations using the strengths of both parts of the operation. Daimler showed little interest in doing this and the result was a failure of the merger between Daimler and Chrysler. Another aspect is the use of Fiat's Alfa Romeo and Maserati models to build new Chrysler vehicles. The new Dodge Dart which gives 40 miles per gallon and which gives Chrysler entry into the small car market, is based on the chassis and technology of Fiat's Alfa Romeo brand. Another vehicle of this type is the Maserati Kubang, an affluent buyer SUV based on the Jeep Grand Cherokee.

LyrArc Article Gist
Greece's economy is expected to shrink by 6% in 2012 by many private sector economists in Greece. This means Greece will have a deficit closer to 10% of GDP. Antonio Samaras, leader of the New Democracy Party, is expected to win the elections in Greece to be held by spring 2012. Opinion polls show his party getting 24% of the vote, and Papandreou's Socialists getting 15%, showing how little support any party can gather in Greece. Samaras told the Journal in an interview- the contagion is spreading rapidly, and what he fears is political and social contagion from high unemployment and austerity measures. Samaras says his government would continue with the spending cuts, but also reduce the tax burden on Greek households and businesses, which he views as having worsened the recession in Greece.

LyrArc Article Gist
Philipp Rosler, head of the FDP party and Germany's Economy minister, says he opposes further involvement by German taxpayers or the ECB in the debt restructuring for Greece. He pointed out that the current negotiations between Greece and the bondholders (mostly French and German banks) were about private sector involvement. Tax payers of Germany and other European countries are already making a contribution he said. The IMF is pushing for the ECB to take a haircut or writedown on the $40 billion of Greek bonds it holds to supplement the haircut taken by bondholders of over 50%. Rosler said in an interview with the Journal that Athens should keep its side of the bargain by implementing reforms and not letting them just be on paper. On Germany or the EU directly taking responsibility over the Greek budget, Rosler said this should be the responsibility of the Greek parliament. At the same time he pointed out that its important to have a specific and rigorous montiroing process just to be fair to taxpayers in the EU....

LyrArc Article Gist
A good sign that the Obama adminstration sees the importance of cutting civilan deaths from American airpower, is the effort by the American Ambassador to personally meet with the civilans affected and their families to express his pain at the tragedy. Without civilan support the Afghan war against the Taliban may well be lost in the vast mountainous country, a country and a people, like most countries and people, with an aversion for foreign troops.

LyrArc Article Gist
Greg Mortenson runs 78 schools in remote poor areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan on a budget of $2.8 millioon he raises through small donations to his foundation, the Central Asia Institute. The Pentagon is listening to Mortenson and he has met privately with Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. THe military has specially sought him out. And General Petraeus has read his book Three Cups of Tea and passed it on to his staff for reading. He also has been asked to speak with senior officers of the Special Operations Command. Greg Mortenson believes getting amoderate education for these children is the best way to prevent the spread of Islamic extremism. In addition to the 78 schools he also runs 48 other schools in refugee camps in the region and 28,000 children in the 2 countries attend Mortenson's schools. In atalk to the Pentagon uniformed officers in 2002 he told them that the $840,000 spent on each of the Tomahawk cruise missiles fired into Afghanistan could have been used to build dozens of schools. He asked them which would you think will make us more secure? ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The US stock markets show stocks displaying a herd behaviour, with stocks going up on good days and going up on bad days in a flock pattern. This leaves little room for individual stock picking. Institutional investors with strategies to buy a broad range of stocks in large blocks, trading in and out based on indexes, now dominate the market.

LyrArc Article Gist
Jan Corzine, Governor of New Jersey has talked to governors from the states of Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, New York, and Massachusetts about how best to execute an effective economic recovery stimulus program with the federal government. Here are the ideas they have come up with. The stimulus should cover five areas, infrastructure, countercyclical programs, housing, education, and middle class tax cuts. The principle to keep in mind is to take advantage of the strengths of the federal government and of the state and local governments. Infrastructure investment should be intelligent ones to modernize the capabilities of the country for the next phase of development and competition in the global economy and in making far reaching changes in transportation and energy for sustainable development in a global economy. A key point of Corzine's here is that safety net social programs will need to be shored up or the stimulus effects will be lost. Over the 2 years 2009 and 2010 he suugests the federal government boost its countercyclical spending by at least $250 billion. And it should do this by increasing the federal medical assistance percentages, federal share of Medicaid costs and other health care related programs such as reimbursement to hospitals for treating the uninsured, Temporary Asistance for Needy families, and child care grants. He proposes doubling the federal funding of unemployment trust funds under the Unemployment Insurance Modernization Act, with incentives to cover vulnerable low-wage and part-time workers who are often denied unemployment benefits. Corzine emphasizes this. That even if the Obama administration puts large sums into infrastructure spending, cutbacks in state and local safety net programs would cancel out much of the effect of the stimulus. The reason is simple while the federal government is adding to jobs on one hand, the states without the money would be cutting back jobs and services. This point will be critical in making the stimulus work. The other point Corzine appears to emphasize by quoting Roosevelt at Oglethorpe University in 1932, is that bold experimientation not clinging to rooftops in the flood, will be needed....

LyrArc Article Gist
A 60% turnout in the election in Kashmir with the National Conference Party under Omar Abdullah winning 28 seats out of 87 seats, and the People's Democratic Party winning 21 seats and the Congress Party winning 17 seats. A coalition between the Congress party and the National Conference party is expected. The turnout in Srinagar the main city was 20%, higher than the 5% in 2002, which suggests that the terrorism in Kashmir is focussed in areas like Srinagar and in the rest of the country including rural districts the people are looking for ways to improve their lives free of the violence and poverty resulting from the insurgency.

LyrArc Article Gist
Graham Allison of the Kennedy school of Government at Harvard and John Deutsch former head of the CIA under Clinton and now a Professor at MIT, say it would be adesirable thing that Afghanistan develop into a prosperous, poppy-free and democratic country, but it is not vital for American interests. They say lets face it, one cannot push Afghistan into modernity overnight, just because we wish it. It would be atragic mistake to do so, and take a huge and ultimately failing effort to do this, with a vast expenditure of American blood and money, to do this. One can expect for Afghanistan after we exit to revert to conditions that exist in other countries at the same level of development, like Bangladesh, Sudan, Somalia. Allison sees a vital interest at stake in Pakistan because of nuclear weapons.