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Adriana Kugler a Labor economist at Georgetown is president Biden's nominee for the Federal Reserve Board. In 2021 she was nominated as Executive Director at the World Bank. Her work is on how labor and social policies can improve the lives of working people, help create jobs, and help the less well off get education and training. Asked about Biden nominating labor economists to top jobs she says-"This is the key issue of our time. This is what we need to fix." As the first Latina in this position at the World Bank, Kugler who is a Colombian-American says, "they view me differently," and have a sense of being heard by someone who understands what it is like ot grow up in a developing country.

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Rumelt argues that efforts to induce aconsumption led recovery won't work in 2011-2012 because of the high debt to income ratio of American households, reminiscent of the situtation in the 1930's as America went into World War II. It took a long period of over a decade to bring debt to income ratios down during the 1940's to 20% for America to once again stage a consumption based recovery. Since the solution of war time engagment and lower consumer spending due to wartime rationing is not a feasible solution today, a lot depends on stimulating investment. Rumelt does not say how this would happen in practice as corporations invest to increase production in a consumer based economy. Corporations can invest on increasing production for growing emerging markets such as India, China and Brazil, and this is happening today. But this does not increase growth in the U.S. economy, except in the limited sense that some of the high end development work takes place in the U.S. Policies that stimulate investment would set the stage for a future recovery. ...

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The $42 billion withdrawal on Thursday March 9 from SVB bank is the largest one day withdrawal in US banking history, over twice that of Washington Mutual when it collapsed in 2008, says this report in the WSJ. By concentrating on Silicon Valley, SVB bank went on a growth spree, but its concentration in the Valley proved to be its undoing. The optimism turned awry in 2021 with the decline in NASDAQ of 33%, and tech companies facing layoffs with more scrutiny from the government and the US Congress, efforts to breakup monopolies, the Fed chairman Powell's and president Biden's efforts to focus on the cost of living crisis.

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The NYT's Motoko Rich and Hikari Hida look at the relationship between Shinjo Abe and Fumio Kishida of Japan. Both entered parliament at the same time in 1993, and both are sons and grandsons of members of parliament. Mr. Abe took the lead and when it resigned in 2021 Kishida was not his first choice to succeed him in the Liberal Democratic Party, Kishida sees increasing defense spending as on of the realities of the changing situation in Asia and the Japanese public now supports this. Kishida is pursuing a different economic policy with an effort to reduce economic inequality which he sees as a problem similar to the US and Europe.

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Kate Bingham, head of the Vaccine Task Force in Britain is commended for her intelligent approach in placing bets on vaccines in different technologies, "four buckets" as she calls them. This includes the Moderna and Pfizer in the mRNA technology and the viral vector Astra Zeneca, J&J vaccines. This approach made the British vaccination drive effective by being supported by a resilient supply system.

The Indian government has supported the effort to get several companies to make the Sputnik Russian vaccine in India in an effort to diversify supplies. Reddy Labs is one of the major manufacturers working on the Sputnik vaccine in 2021.

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Green Mountain's share price fell 48% on May 3, 2012. It has fallen 75% since fall 2011 after climbing fivefold in the last three years. The situation has changed for Green Mountain, the maker of the Keurig single cup coffee product, with two of its patents on K- cup coffee expiring and Starbucks plans to launch a high end espresso brewer. Green Mountain, based in Waterbury, Vermont, acquired Keurig Inc. in June 2006 for $100 million. Its Keurig single cup brewers and K cup coffee packs have taken the largest market share, with Kraft Foods Tassimo product struggling. Green Mountain continues to grow, with sales of Keurig brewers and accessories increasing by 21% and K- cup sales up by 59% in first quarter of 2012. Profits were up 42%. Investors and hedge funds are short selling the stock, or waiting for the price to decline, and a quarter of the shares traded are being "shorted," according to FactSet.

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Education Department to delay forced collection on student loans starting Jan 2026. Tax refunds would not be used towards repayment of student loans. The thinking is that the student loan payment system is so much in need of overhaul that student borrowers should not have to suffer from high cost of living on smaller wages. 

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US president DJT on the craziness of UK, China, Japan, India getting their oil and gas from Hormuz Straits after frequent disruptions over 40 years. And expecting US to keep lanes open, expecting the US to do this alone when US is self sufficient and exports oil and gas in 2026. UK, China, Japan and India does not want a wider war, US also does not want a wider war, and has asked these countries to stop shopping for the best price and find alternative sources of oil and gas for many years. China and Japan get 90% of their oil from the Hormuz Straits region- the US president is asking does that even make sense? Are they doing this because it is cheaper, ignoring the other costs, and the hidden costs of unreliable supplies to the poorest countries paying $125-150 a barrel? Germany has set a better example for these countries to follow getting only 6% of its oil and gas from the Hormuz Straits and being far ahead in renewable energy. China and Japan, South Korea are oblivious of all that has happened, the disruptions in supplies of the last 40 years, and have made no serious effort to find alternative sources and supplies. Whatever happens in coming weeks Mr President DJT has a point. Even more so as the MAGA base has insisted on a focus on domestic policy and problems, the Biden base also had the same desire to focus on domestic policy and problems. Nothing should divert from this focus, particularly the needs of countries that have not made changes in energy policy and logistics they should have a long time back. ...

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India lags behind in the number of tourists visiting the country. Part of the reason was the lack of good infrastructure in the country. Indian Railways and new highways, modern river transport has opened up remote parts of the country from the jungles of Assam to deserts of Rajasthan, the mountainous regions of Kashmir, Sikkim, Bhutan and Ladakh, Arunachal, and the river regions of the Brahmaputra river and Ganges to tourism. Compared to France with 100 million tourists a year India has about a tenth of that.  Tourism is now seen as an engine for job growth as small handicraft industries can tap into the tourist market, hotels and restaurants can add to employment. The new budget for 2025-26 recognizes this by almost tripling the 95 million euros budget for 2024 to 283 million euros in 2025. Delhi with images of pollution is a distraction yet the tourist from Europe or America can find much to see in smaller towns and metros in the country from Buddhist and Vedic civilizations thousands of years old and recent history after invasions from Western Asia and Europe since 1600, and interesting cuisine, culture, language and regional influences. ...

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Both sides have taken a pause in negotiations yet they are getting closer. There is also the conversation that we are not aware of that is taking place between McCarthy/McConnell and Biden about G7 leaders asking Biden on the debt talks. McCarthy will not want to affect the Ukraine counter offensive with all the talk about a debt default impacting the credibility of the US. McCarthy also could pass an agreement through the House with Democrats support with a small faction of Republicans not supporting him if push comes to shove and matters reach a critical point. By negotiating in good faith Biden is surely doing the right thing. The important thing is to let moderate Republicans have an opportunity to support him in the task of Renewal of America. The bigger task is 2024 which Biden has his eyes on, because this is how America will be made or unmade with the right choices and the right priorities. And Biden needs independents and Republicans who might consider supporting him to get things done for America's Renewal. House Speaker McCarthy's Republicans now support keeping spending at $1.65 trillion the 2023 levels. The Biden administration would consider a program of small cuts- no deep cuts. And only for 2 years. On work requirements for government aid to the poor and vulnerable Biden says he supported work requirements when he was a Senator in the US Congress. He outright excludes any work requirements for health benefits. Biden understands that in an economy with jobs going unfilled in construction and hospitality industries, and in child care and teaching, nursing, with higher minimum wages, people looking for work could find work to make a decent or tolerable living.   ...

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Rachel Ensign's WSJ report shows huge disparity in incomes and spending that has happened in the US even with the best efforts and intentions of the Biden administration in 2020-2024. US cumulative excess savings by income for the bottom 90% are a mere $291 billion compared to $1.2 trillion for the top 10%, 4 times as large. As a result about half of consumer spending comes from the top 10% in incomes says the WSJ. (Moody's Analytics). It provides clues on why Biden and even less so Harris failed to convince Americans, the middle class, blue collar workers, and others that large social gaps, income disparities and wealth disparities gap were being bridged under Democrats. And makes it harder for Republicans and Democrats alike to address such huge gaps built up over time by outshoring jobs and manufacturing, the 2009 financial crisis from banks speculation, the pandemic and supply shock cost of living crisis. As the $2.6 trillion in pandemic assistance from Biden faded people in the bottom 80% dipped into savings to pay for rising cost of living as supply chain bottlenecks and price gouging sent prices of groceries, housing, apartment rentals, cars up significantly. This has'nt happened to the top 10% or even the top 20% who continue to spend in the same way as before prices went up. Something like this is also happening in Europe and in China, India fueling and anti-incumbency mood, and dissatisfaction with governments. The Net Worth of the top 20% has grown by 45% or $35 trillion since 2019 compared to $14 trillion for the bottom 80%. (Moody's Analytics) ...

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A complete reversal of the Monroe Doctrine (US president Monroe 1817-1825) policies -that kept the American continent north and south free of colonial European powers- is an affront to the US and has cost the US in Latin America. With fentanyl deaths and drug trafficking, migrant trafficking, interference by foreign powers in the Americas In Cuba, Venezuela and other countries, and ports owned by China in South America.  Hong Kong magnate Li Ka-Shing's Hutchison Holdings sale of Panama Canal ports to Black Rock for $23 billion takes place on March 4, 2025. The two ports on both sides of the Panama Canal will now be in American hands. Li Ka Shing started out fleeing from the devastated China of the Sino Japanese war to the British colony of Hong Kong, left school at 15 to work and started out with a small plastics factory in 60's Hong Kong. He then branched out into real estate as Hong Kong's economy expanded, and in the 2000-2020 period with rapid growth of China with US assistance (Clinton and Bush administrations) moved to acquire most of the ports and container terminals in the world. It is these ports that are now being bought back by the US. 23 ports and container terminals in 43 countries will now be sold back by Li Ka-Shing's Hutchison Holdings back to Black Rock under an agreement. None of this could have happened under the lackadiasical policies of previous administrations that led to first affront and then disastrous effects of migrant trafficking and drug trafficking in this hemisphere.   ...

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A look at the deficit/imports deficits divided by imports ratio formula used by DJT in Rose Garden chart Liberation Day April 2, 2025 shows the importance of deficits and total imports by country. The criticism in NYT of this formula centers on- Why not the use of manufactured goods plus services and why exclude services. This is easily answered the whole idea is to bring manufacturing back to the US. US Trade Representative Jamieson and president DJT say 5 million manufacturing jobs were lost and 90,000 factories closed over 2 decades of outshoring by American companies, most of it to China. Only by focusing on manufactured goods can this be corrected. What about using a five year average of the trade deficit instead of most recent 2024 trade deficit used by the president DJT? NYT says it distorts the ratio for Equatorial Guinea? But it shifts it only slightly by less than 1 percent for China and even less than that for the European Union. US is focused on correcting the unfair treatment of American workers and factories inside America that led to this loss of 5 million jobs and tens of thousands of factories, destroying the Nation's industrial base. Most of it to China, What that has to do with Equatorial Guinea is beyond comprehension and shows the ignorance that is fueling much of the criticism of the efforts to support American workers who are the best in the world when given the opportunity and management is doing it's job right. ...

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The debate in France about the need for a new policy to boost manufacturing at home. The planned closure of a Bridgestone factory in Bethune in northern France in 2021 provides another example of the effect on local communities with closing of plants. The French government has pledged to relocate more production back to France. About 15 billion euros of a 100 billion euros package to fight the effects of the pandemic on the economy will go to relocate sectors and boost local manufacturing and jobs.

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Germany's Bundestag parliament vote eases constitutional "debt brake" March 2025. CDU's Merz and the SPD join with Greens to provide the two thirds majority to remove a constitutional debt brake put in in the Merkel years. Germany's dilapidated infrastructure from rail to other transport and public facilities, to poor childcare are a sign of how the Merkel debt brake has hurt the German economy. Four years of the Greens SPD coalition government of Scholz were wasted when the SPD and Greens wanted investment in infrastructure starting in 2021 but included Lindner of the super cautious Free Democrats as Finance Minister who opposed spending and vetoed it every step of the way. The results can be seen in Frankfurt and other cities and in the underinvestment in Deutsche Bahn rail and all over the country. Merz of the CDU and the SPD and Greens finally fix this problem starting with removing the debt brake.  What happened to Lindner and Free Democrats? They did not make the threshold of 5% for representation in the German parliament, the Bundestag in Berlin. Lindner resigned for his failure. ...

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Paul Singer, head of hedge fund firm Elliott Management and its unit NML Capital, has relentlessly pursued a case in U.S. courts involving collecting full payment on bonds from the Argentine government after its default on the bonds in 2001. Singer bought bonds with face value of about $170 million according to legal filings, but paid a price well below the original value. Elliott and other investors are now seeking $1.5 billion, including unpaid interest. Judge Griesa's ruling in a federal court in Manhattan blocks Argentina from paying bondholders who accepted an agreement for about 25 cents on the dollar from being paid $530 million in interest in July 2014. Argentina has to consider other risks in settling the dispute as more than the $1.5 billion as a one off payment is involved, because as Stevenson points out in another article (see link), the payment could run from $15- $27 billion depending on whether it then has to pay all holdout bondholders or all exchange and holdout bondholders at a higher rate. The result is an intractable dispute beyond the statement of honoring creditor rights, seen by a debtor country facing difficult finances in a different light. Serving as a reminder for Greece, Argentina, and other countries with chronic borrowing and debt history about the need for care and constant vigilance on state finances. In May 2012 Greece paid over $436 million in a one off payment to holdout bondholder financial firm Dart Management in a similiar bind, even as pensions were being cut and Greeks protested daily on Athens streets with over 20% unemployment (see link)....

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UniCredit announced plans to reorganize its Central European and Eastern European banking operations and increase its capital by 7.5 billion euros. Unicredit showed a third quarter 2011 loss of 10.64 billion euros after losses on Greek bonds and goodwill writedowns. The Italian bank said the capital increase will bring its Tier 1 ratio to above 9% as required by Basel III rules. UniCredit is listed as one of the globally systemically important financial institutions or G-SIFI's. Unicredit plans to make the placement of the rights issue to raise capital in 1st quarter 2012. Pricing remains a difficult matter considering that Unicredit shares have dropped precipitiously since 2007 when it had a market capitalization of 100 billion euros. Its market capitalization is now about 15.3 billion euros. Just in the last year the shares have dropped 50% to 0.68 euros a share in Sept. 2011.

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A reading crisis in Sweden spreads from secondary school students to college students. 

Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) of the OECD showed that in 2022, 25% of 15-year-olds lacked basic reading and writing skills. In 2000, the figure was 13%. This has spread to college students. Scores in the US for NAEP and in the UK are much worse than Sweden yet there is nowhere near the same level of alarm about it.

 In December 2024, the Minister of Education and leader of the Liberal Party, Johan Pehrson, met with representatives from universities, student organizations and the national education agency to go over steps needed to tackle the "reading crisis."

 

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Timeline in NYT on DJT-Jamieson USTR  Tariffs to March 13, 2025. Reciprocal tariffs to go into effect April 2, 2025 on Mexico and Canada. Reciprocal tariffs are seen as based on fairness- "we charge them what they charge us."  Why is this action necessary?  Because Canada, Mexico, EU, South Korea, Japan, China gained unfair advantages due to the inaction of administrations dating back to Clinton, Bush, Obama which were never reversed. Other nations have no incentive to trade on the principle of fairness inducing the US to take action to open discussions on fair trade and on what the tariffs should be going forward from 2025. US Trade Representative Lighthizer under DJT first term was Deputy Trade Representative under Reagan when he negotiated fair trade with the Japanese in the 1980's who he says stalled and stalled till finally agreeing to real discussions. So this is nothing new China, Canada and Mexico have taken the place of Japan. In this second term of DJT Lighthizer's Deputy Trade Representative is now the US Trade Representative. This means the discussions are in the hands of seasoned American trade officials with a keen grasp of details supported by Scott Bessent at Treasury and Luttnick at Commerce Department. What it is NOT is an effort to coerce other nations by the US. Like Japan in the 1980's with Reagan and Lighthizer as USTR, in 2025 China, Canada, Mexico, South Korea Taiwan and other nations would like to slow this return to fair trade by stalling and stalling, and presenting a different picture of the facts. But will that work? As it did not with Japan in the 1980's when Lighthizer got them to sit down to have real discussions on fair trade. ...

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India's WPI, the Wholesale Price Index, is up 1.3% in March 2023, the lowest in 29 months. This is likely to continue for the next 3 months and remain below 1%.

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The situation in Afghanistan as the economy collapses in 2022. The countries in Central Asia are affected by the Ukraine war leading to economic difficulties in the whole central Asian region.

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Gome's share price fell 21% on March 27, 2012. The company is facing strong competition from online sellers. Its profits declined by 6% in 2011. China is seeing an upsurge for online retailers such as 360Buy.com and Taobao. Gome's internal estimates are for internet sales of home appliances to be 1 in 3 by 2016, up from 1 in 10 in 2010. Gome is in a similiar position as Best Buy in the U.S. which competes with Amazon.com and other online sellers. To compete Gome is promoting its own online shopping operations.

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Federal Reserve inflation policy changes August 2025 to get a handle on everyday costs people face not the statistics the Fed uses which shows 2%-3% when housing, childcare, groceries, automobiles and repair, heating bills are on the rise. On a rise to the point where average households are barely able to make ends meet and raising a family is so difficult in the US in these conditions.

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US president Biden links the fight on the beaches of Normandy to the defense of Ukraine with the war nearing Kharkiv in June 2024. Biden puts flowers at the place where 9388 Americans are buried, who died in the initial assault on Omaha beach, Normandy.

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The Case-Shiller Index shows a decline in housing prices of 4.2% in the first quarter of 2011. This follows a drop of 3.6% in the fourth quarter of 2010. Of the 20 cities in the index, 12 were at a post-bubble low in March 2011. The yearly drop for Minneapolis was 10%. Only Washington D.C. showed a rise in March and over the year. Housing prices are at 2002 levels. The Center for Economic and Policy Research estimates a decline of 6-8% for the rest of 2011. The excess supply of housing was estimated at 1.8 million units in April 2010 by the financial Blog Calculated Risk, which used 2010 census data for the estimate calculations. The Conference Board consumer confidence index fell to 60.8 from a revised 66 in April 2011.