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Compared with 2007 when participatory notes (p-notes), which provide anonymity for institutional investors, comprised 56% of foreign institutional investment, the p-notes comprise only 15% in 2010. This is good for India as investors are registering as institutional investors and there is less likelihood of speculative capital behaviour, as institutions think longer term. India received $18 billion in stock market investments from overseas investors in 2007, a record amount, and with $11 billion invested so far this will be exceeded in 2010.

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The global financial crisis is expected to reshape the direction of globalization. Western finance will be re-regulated. Second as concerns about food security take prominence in countries like India and China inflation and how it affects food prices will result in governments taking an active role in this area. Thirs America will lose economic clout and intellectual authority. Emerging economies like Inida, China, Brazil and Russia and other countries are having a large influence on the direction of global trade now this will also extend to global finance. But even after the re-regulation of finance in western countries and changes also in emerging countries that are seen as necessary in the light of the global crisis, the global economy will still find the model of markets if carefully done and respect for individual initiative with a proper role of government but limited role, he attractive model to follow. Easterly comments on this for developing countries. See the link.

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Pakistan's foreign currrency reserves of $8.14 billion as of Sept 27 and falling for 14 straight weeks, falling from $16.39 billon in November 2007, are creating a situation in which Pakistan may have to turn to the IMF for emergency assistance. Especially because this covers hardly 2 months of imports of food and oil.

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Mohamed Bin Zayed was educated at the Royal Military Academy at Sandhurst in the UK and graduated in 1979. He is a strong proponent of US leadership in the Gulf region and Asia. He is now the third president of the United Arab Emirates with which India has significant trade and economic relations with 8 million Indians living in the Gulf region. Of the approximately 10.1 million people in UAE about 1.1 million are citizens and the rest are foreign workers. Mr. Modi has thanked Mr. Zayed for the good treatment given to Indians in the Gulf region by Zayed and his administration. 

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One of the goals of the Northern Ireland deal is closer relations between the EU and Britain putting to rest the tensions from Brexit. The EU sees Sunak as a good faith negotiator and made concessions on the application of EU laws for Northern Ireland. In Britain 60% of people now say in opinion surveys that they see the 2016 vote to leave the European Union as a mistake. A genuine relationship with the EU will happen only after a change in power from the Conservatives to the Labour party in the January 2025 election, says Mark Landler in the NYT.

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One third more dads at home is a silver lining from the pandemic says The Guardian. Dads are spending more quality time with their children. In this way the lockdowns were a catalyst for a much needed change.  There has also been a change in the perception of what a good father looks like- parenting is part of the new dad's active role. Dads having tried this during the extra time they now spend doing remote work from home, say this has shown them what things look from the women's side. And it has been a positive change.

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The Brexit issues and Tory leaders talking to their supporters has and effect on French British relations. Macron comments on UK Foreign Secretary and likely prime minister Liz Truss's recent remarks that "the jury is out" on whether the French president Macron was "friend or foe." Macron says "its not good to lose your bearings too much." He says in answering the same question "I would not hesitate for a second. France is a friend of the British people." It all goes to show how British relations with France have been affected under the Conservatives party.

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The German film for the best international feature film for Academy Award in 2023 is Edward Berger's All Quiet on the Western Front. It is based on Erich Maria Remarque's 1929 novel of same name. In it Remarque shows a generation of young men in an upbeat mood when leaving school for the front, only to end up in the war dead on the French German trench warfare lines of 1915-1918. The first film was made in 1930, the second in 1979, Berger's is the first from Germany. It comes as a war started in Eastern Europe in 2022. 

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For National Governance Day- Praveen Siddharth, private secretary to the president, writes about the way Atal Bihari Vajpayee handled the difficult situations he faced in parliament after his government faced no confidence motions and his government collapsed for lack of one vote, leading to a government that lasted 13 days, before finally winning the 1999 elections for a first full term in office. This opened the way for a post independence modernizing India based on good governance, "sab ka vikas sab ke sath, sab ka prayas." National governance day is observed on the day of the birth of Atal Bihari Vajpayee. 

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President Biden sets out the new role of America in the Asia Pacific region at the APEC CEO Summit. Key points from hours of discussion Biden had with Xi Jinping during his visit to the US- 

"Let me be clear. America does not seek conflict with China." And that "America is not decoupling with China. It is de-risking and diversifying from China." For his part Jinping has said- "There are a thousand reasons for us to want good relations with the US." This may be the biggest achievement of both leaders.

 

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Three homes built in Boston to show the potential of passive home construction that are designed with solar panels, heat pumps, wood construction, and modern technology design that minimizes loss of heat in winter and reduces temperature increases in the summer. The cost of the electricity bill for each of these three homes is nearly zero. Passive home construction cost is about 15% more or in this case $1.4 million for homes that would otherwise cost $1.2 million in the Boston area. The design and technological aspects can be incorporated in lower cost affordable housing and 40% of passive construction is planned in that field.

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Reports from Europe that a V shaped recovery is happening in the economy. Andy Haldane the chief economist of the Bank of England says roughly half of the 25% lost output in the economy in the lockdown in April and May has been gained back in UK. This is good news for Europe after the bad hit it took from the pandemic since March. The reopening of the economy in Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Britain is taking place with greater reassurance as the curve is flattening out at low levels of cases in July and people are generally following rules for prevention.

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The view of a Prof. of Finance at New York University's Stern School of Business on the auto industry and the destruction of capital. About $110 billion of destruction of capital between 1980 and 1990 for GM and Ford, and the destruction of $182 billion in capital that was invested in GM between 1998 and 2007. From a Finance point of view this is society's capital that can be better invested. The total $465 billion invested in GM and Ford between 1998 to 2007 says Yermack could have purchased all the shares of Toyota, Honda, Nissan and VW. The job losses overstate the situation he says, as jobs would be created in other auto factories which expand as Detroit contracts, which is already happening as sales decline is less steep at other automakers such as the Japanese. Regarding the proposals to ask the automakers to build environmentally friendly cars with serious fuel efficiency, he says its like asking the cigarette companies finance cancer research, considering their lobbying efforts to gut serious conservation or environment friendly legislation....

LyrArc Article Gist
The head of South Korea's Disease Control committee says that patients with coronavirus can't relapse. About 277 patients tested positive after recovery. Looking at this the scientists found that there were harmless traces that were incorrectly detected by the RNA test which are not live so that patients are still in good health with no relapse. This is a very important bit of information for reopening different countries to modified normal life.

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The European Union has deals for 300 million doses of vaccine from BioNTech and Pfizer to be delivered soon. Germany is setting up hundreds of vaccination centers for first 3 months of 2021. Transport logistics are a concern. The Pfizer vaccine has to be kept at minus 70 degrees Celsius or minus 94 degrees Fahrenheit. Paul Ehrlich Institute is responsible for release of vaccine batches in Germany for rollout.  Good planning is essential for the huge task ahead.

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The Indian government's chief economic advisor, Kaushik Basu, says the opening up of India's retail sector would have benefitted everyone including middle traders. This would happen because the retail sector would go through a vast expansion creating room for more players even though the per unit margin from products would go down. Experts say the infusion of new technologies and investment in India's supply chain and cold storage setup would help reduce food prices and inflation. Basu made the comments at the launching of the New Oxford Companion to Economics in India in Feb 2012. Basu is co-editor and it has contributions from Ratan Tata, Pranab Mukherjee, and Nandan Nilekhani.

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McDonald's has its first drop in same store sales since 2003, with a 1.8% decline for Oct. 2012. McDonald's faces more frugal consumers who are eating out less often, increasing competition from Burger King, Wendy's and other food stores. McDonald's also face difficult conditions in the eurozone with 40% of sales revenue and profits coming fom Europe.

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Governor Andrew Cuomo's personal reflections on his father Mario Cuomo, his ex wife Kerry Kennedy, girlfriend Sandra Lee of the Food Network, on politics, gun control, and the extreme left of the Democratic Party. His view of effective politics that has a positive impact on people's lives is that it takes the energy of an Olympic athlete to compete.

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As remittances fall and in some places disappear from workers in developed countries to their families in developing countries, Kristof says about 46 million people there will fall into poverty. Something Zoellick of the World Bank has been warning for some time. Everything from food, school lunches, tution for children to go to school, housing, will be affected.

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In the meeting in the Oval Office Biden and Modi had this to say about India US relations. Modi called it a "transformative" decade. Mr. Biden called it a "new chapter" in ties, taking on tough challenges in coronavirus vaccines for the rest of Asia outside India and China, tackling climate change, and ensuring rule of law in the Indo-Pacific region.  Biden's view- "I think that the relationship between India and the US, two of the largest democracies in the world, is destined to be stronger, closer, tighter, and I think it can benefit the whole world." A look at the US under the Biden administration shows a US that is very different from that of the US in the period of presidents since Harry Truman when he met Jawaharlal Nehru at the White House in October 1949. Biden sees the US needing renewal of its infrastructure, reviving worker incomes and families, regaining its leadership of the free world, for its role and place in the world. Throughout the period 1949 to 2020 for 70 years India was never seen as a modernizing nation of 1.2 billion people. For most of this period it lacked the good governance and speedy implementation of modernization of economy that is essential for a truly good relationship. By releasing the potential of the younger generation in a country where people under 35 years form the major part of the population, with good governance and development agenda, the Indian prime minister has changed the entire dynamics of the India US relationship. This is happening in the way China had done in its relationship with the US after 2000 by modernizing the country. India is now the country with huge potential and the country the US sees as helping it build its own role and place in the world. The sheer size of India and its population with countries around it in the east such as Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam with shared values in south and southeast Asia bring together a population of close to 2 billion people much larger than China, to determine the direction of Asia.  This is the new chapter that president Biden has in mind, and it is also the "transformative decade" in the eyes of prime minister Modi as India finally puts behind it years of bad governance, and speeds up modernizing its economy.   ...

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The US central bank the Fed's Powell leaves interest rates unchanged July 30, 2025- as he waits to see what happens with inflation following tariffs action by DJT to level playing field with EU, Japan, China. A tariff of 15% is set in US Trade Agreements with Japan, EU and South Korea. Powell says the impact on US consumers will be minimal but not zero, with some effects expected even though EU, Japan and South Korea will not attempt to pass through the tariffs and risk the other benefits of trade access to the US market.

Overall both the European Union and the US have a good economy, with inflation at 2% and the the unemployment situation the best it has been in some decades near 6% in EU and near 4% in the US. 

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New affordability and choice in EV's in US under $40000 in 2025. Even without incentives from the government EV's remain an attractive option now that new gasoline cars cost an average of $49,000 and affordable EV's come at price range uder $40,000. In Germany VW has EV models for about $30,000 and this pricing and choice of models can be expected in the US in 2026. Mims looks at how EV's are now a realistic option for car buyers in 2025. Americans drive an average of 33 miles a day- the 300 mile range of new EV's means charging once a week is good enough. New EV batteries are better and can outlast a vehice's life. Savings from low maintenance costs can make up for any shortfalls for EV's.

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Michael Dell donation of $6.25 billion for Trump $1000 child investment accounts. The Trump accounts were passed by Congress for giving tax deferred investment accounts to children born from Jan.1 2025 to Dec 31 2028, as a way to give 25 million lower income children a good start in education and opportunities in life. The Dell money $250 per account will go to 25 million children, go to 10 years old born before Jan. 1 2025 as away to address the gap for children not in the age group Congress targeted. Dell's money goes to US zip codes with average incomes below $150,000. This is a recognition by the Republican DJT administration that many lower income children are being left out in the economic growth US has experienced in the last decade, approaching the problem from a different angle than the Democrats.

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Narendra Modi's victory speech in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India, on May 16, 2014, in which he focussed on "development" of a united India, of a billion people all putting in their own efforts in every sphere of development. He said he needed 10 years to make the dreams of development and good governance a reality in India.

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DW.com's Ines Pohl says the U.S. presidential election campaign in 2016 with Donald Trump is a reflection of the state of American society today. She says lets not kid ourselves, what is happening is a reflection of the changes in society, demagogy as a reflection of the society we live in- people's lack of interest in serious issues, the loudest getting heard, less interest in checking the facts, and looking for a good show or entertainment in the debate. She points to problems in today's society, new technologies in media, that have fostered a new kind of shallowness. This includes fragmented social media groups, media that allows scapegoat theories to thrive, and elites or people in authority that lack the ability to respond to the challenges posed by this. She rightly points out that it goes beyond this campaign season and will continue into the future till it is resolved. What would Abraham Lincoln think of this, or what would George Washington or Thomas Jefferson think of this? LyrArc has frequently quoted these lines from a letter by Washington to Jefferson in Feb. 1783, and in the First Letter from the Editor- "To merit the approbation of good and virtuous citizens is the height of my ambition;  and will be a full compensation for all my toils and sufferings in the long and painful contest that we have been engaged." Washington told his countrymen in his draft of the First Inaugural Address that "there is no truth more thoroughly established, than that there exists in the economy and course of nature, an indissoluble union between virtue and happiness, between duty and advantage, between the genuine maxims of an honest and magnanimous policy, and the solid rewards of public prosperity and felicity." This has profound meaning and is truly applicable in meeting the challenges America and Europe face today.   ...