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In the 2 hour call Xi and Biden discussed issues that are creating serious differences between the 2 countries, the war in Ukraine, Taiwan, trade and tariffs, South China sea and Indo-Pacific issues, global supply chains, food and energy issues. Chinese statement says "those who play with fire will be perished by it. It is hope the US will be clear eyed about this." Xi Jinping takes on a third term in 2022. Biden has spoken with Xi five times since 2021 and the last call in March was to dissuade China from supporting Russia in the Ukraine war. China is opposed to Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. Biden has said it was a bad idea at this time.

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Inflation is over 2% in Japan for the 22nd month. Decline in working age population by the 1990's, the shift of jobs and factories overseas, and the banking crisis all led to deflation in the Japanese economy. By 1998 inflation was setting in and has continued for two decades to 2022. This could happen in China as it's economy faces similar problems which is why linear projections from the last 10 years for China are misleading and erroneous, just as linear projections for India from the previous decade's growth were misleading and erroneous after 2014. The second decade after 2024 is likely to lead to major investments in infrastructure leading to India joining the developed nations.

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Mr. Ambani's Jio company is targeting both ends of the pyramid. It is investing $25 billion on a 5G network coming in late 2023. At the lower end a new $12 mobile phone calld JioBharat by India's largest telecom provider aims to reach 250 million people who use 2G mobile phones. Mobile phone penetration in India is about 46% in 2021, up from 17% in 2016, according to World Bank. This is largely due to the efforts of Mr. Ambani who built a 4G network from scratch and has 440 million subscribers with some of the lowest data rates in the world. The new phone has a smaller screen, physical keyboard, camera and runs on 4G. 

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This story in WSJ says China may have a lead in electric car battery sales in 2024 and beyond. China is investing heavily in battery plants and EV plants in Europe and the US. This would help China meet the restrictions on import of electric vehicles from China by the Biden administration. CATL increased its market share in Europe from 10% to 24%. Sales of EV vehicles in China went up by 37% in the first 9 months of 2023, and China is the top exporter of electric vehicles. CATL's electric battery sales in Europe doubled compared to 60% for LG. And in excluding China sales CATL has caught up with LG both having 28% of the market.

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International arrivals to the US that were still down by about 35% in June last year over the pre pandemic levels of 2019, are going to be only about 20% below prepandemic 2019 levels this summer 2023. The cost of gasoline for people in the US is about $3.57 a gallon compared to $4.60 last summer. Justin Lahart in WSJ says Americans with steady checks and low unemployment are willing to spend on trips this summer. Among Americans about 40% still avoided travel by airplane, train or subway in 2022. This is now down to 18% or less in 2023.

Traditional vacations are up as old style remote work vacations are receding. Marriott, Hilton and other hotels, and airlines report strong demand. Older people who spend more are also joining the trend this summer leading to higher spending. This may even help the US avoid a recession, says Lahart.

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Hardship withdrawals from 401(k)s reach high of 4.8% in 2024. Analysis of 3 million retirement accounts at Vanguard research for 2008-2022 shows higher volatility for hourly paid workers than salaried workers. Hourly paid workers have income swings of 15% compared to salaried and when they leave an employer often take out savings in 401(k)s- 42% with income $50,000 to $75,000 took out their savings compared to 28% in salaried group with same income. Many do so to deal with emergency needs. Thus income volatility hurts workers savings in the hourly sector.

A US law passed in 2022 lets employers automatically enroll employees earning less than $160,000 in emergency savings accounts that they can put in $2500 every year in a Roth type account and withdraw from it penalty and tax free. This is helping some employees avoid touching their 401(k)s.

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There is much criticism of a $900 billion stimulus bill that only provides $600 direct payment checks to families suffering lost income during the pandemic. About $200 billion goes to business in the Paycheck Protection Program of which $120 billion goes to the most affluent 1% of Americans.

President Trump was critical and called for $2000 in direct checks saying it was scandalous that families would only get $600 in direct payment while lobbying interests and other interests were getting significant sums of money. Part of the Democratic Party has also favored a decent check to families.

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In a very real sense US and NATO Europe has failed by blanket applying the principle of national sovereignty without recognizing that there are general rules that have to make room for some exceptions or nuances in cultural and historic linkages as in the case of Ukraine's most eastern regions along Russia's borders. Only about 30% of American public in Pew Research poll sees Russian war in Ukraine as a threat to the US, among Republicans it is only 19%. Remember this is during the third year of the war with staggering losses on both sides when prolonging the war makes no sense.  If the American public were properly informed by the media that Zelensky's popularity has dropped to 16%.  That the eastern regions of Ukraine near the border speak Russian and share a common culture, and had voted for Russia oriented parties before the war began -not in 2021 but in 2013 with the Maidan movement in Lviv near Poland leading to the whole of Ukraine except parts of the east nearest to Russia moving towards the west- it might look at the larger picture and seek a settlement which accepts Russian commitments to peace with these regions as part of Russian Federation. The staggering losses on both sides cannot justify the conflict and it is not in the America's, India's, China's, or Europe's interest to damage the Russian economy or further damage Ukrainian infrastructure in a war that changes little in the winter of 2024-2025.  ...

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Enel, Italy's energy company, plans to invest $83 billion over the next decade to 2030 to increase renewable energy capacity from 45 gigawatts to 120 gigawatts. Renewable energy's share is expected to increase from 27% to 33% by 2025, according to IEA. Europe has committed to spend a third of its $750 billion recovery fund on addressing climate issues. ENel market share would increase from 2.8% to 5% by the end of this decade. With Iberdrola of Spain Enel was early in making investments and is the largest company in renewable energy in Europe.

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The WSJ cites economic studies that show 60% of China's overseas loans are troubled in 2022 compared to 10% in 2010. China has scaled down the Belt and Road Initiative and is reorganizing the effort to introduce risk controls and reduce lending. China's preferred approach in an increasing interest rate environment is to extend the maturity of loans. Yet the climate change disasters and rising rates have put many countries into a highly indebted position. China no longer touts the Belt and Road as a way for developing countries to advance their economies and infrastructure development.

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Carney calls Canadian elections on April 28 2025. He was head of the Bank of England and comes from the financial sector. The opposition leader from the Conservatives cannot be ruled out as he enjoyed increase in popularity after Trudeau's popularity declined after being in power since 2015. Carney has never contested an election and the example of Sunak is recent. Sunak called an early election only to lose badly to Labour in 2024 after serious missteps by the Liberals and a split in the party. That split has not been fixed by Carney in any way. 

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Joe Biden, US president says the US will have 300 million vaccine doses by the end of July. 200 million more vaccine doses, with 100 million from Pfizer and 100 million from Moderna are part of new finalized purchases by the Biden government in February 2021. Biden says vaccine supplies were in much worse shape than he thought after the last 2 months of the Trump administration led to distractions that affected handling of the pandemic. 

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Krauthammer cites Congressional Budget Office numbers that show the Obama U.S. health care law continues the spiralling costs of health care with new government mandates at a time of severe budget cuts in education and other areas- for 2013-2022 the costs come to $1.76 trillion. The initial Obama administration figures of 10 year costs of $938 billion announced in 2010 reflected the fact that the new U.S. health care law would take 4 years to fully go into effect. Costs after 2021 are shown to be $250 billion each year in the CBO figures. The law is now before the Supreme Court in 2012, which has to decide on the basis of the limits of the Commerce Clause.

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China's BYD started in electric batteries and expanded into electric cars. It has emerged as the dominant electric car company in the world as China now has half of the electric cars on the road in the world. 35% of exports of electric cars are from China. Keith Bradsher of NYT reports from Shenzen that its first car was made in 2007 of poor quality, similar to Toyota in the 1930's as it tried car manufacturing for the first time. It has surpassed Tesla in making electric cars. In each of the last 2 years it has increased electric car sales by one million to reach electric car sales on 3 million. EV sales in China were up in 2023 to 9.49 million cars giving BYD the largest share of 31%., by comparison US electric car sales were 1.2 million. New assembly lines are being built in Brazil, Hungary and Thailand. And new lines are planned for Mexico and Indonesia. This kind of growth was seen only by General Motors in 1946 after the end of the war. It also shows the progress China is making. In solar panels something like the addition of 900 million solar panels meeting the entire increase in electricity demand for each year, so that emissions targets can be met earlier than planned to tackle climate change.  The same changes are happening in electric cars. China now has 40% of electric cars or gasoline/electric plug in cars going up to 50%. For export China is building large carrier ships, the first that will take 5000 cars for export to the Netherlands. The lowest priced electric car model the Seagull was priced at $11,000. BYD's lowering of manufacturing costs have given it the ability to price the cars to attract new car buyers.  Wang Chuanfu who studied at Central Southern University in Changsha known for its battery research, was an engineer who started the company in the 1990's to make batteris for Motorola. Between 2003-2006 he experimented with making cars in the hope of making electric cars. Stalled efforts in 2009 and 2011 were met with arenewed effort in 2016 trying a new approach to cut costs by developing a battery where supplies of lithium or cobalt would not be a constraint. He developed a new battery using iron and phospate to replace lithium cobalt batteries. A big break came in 2020 with the Blade battery that increased range to the level of cobalt lithium batteries at a much smaller cost. BYD hired German Audi designers for new model design. This time BYD was in the right position to build a car company matching all others with costs lower by about 35% than VW for some models. This comes from- lower costs to make in China, making its own parts inside the company for 75% of parts compared to VW only about 35%, and by the savings from its battery research.  BYD has shown ability to shift with market needs and opportunities. In 2022 assisted driving was facing hurdles, BYD had second thoughts about the new technology, by 2023 as it was increasing in use BYD committed $14 billion in autonomous driving technology. Driving range is a problem for people in urban areas going back to their villages in China. BYD has an advantage here compared to Tesla- it makes hybrid plug ins that account for half its sales. Toyota has also had emphasis on hybrid plug ins where it missed the opportunity was that it moved very slowly on all electric cars not realizing how fast things were moving outside it's world. This is the situation America also faces in 2024 and beyond who can deliver on the infrastructure capabilities, new research ,and tap American potential to compete in this new world where one innovation will follow another. ...

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Mortgage and other loans taken out at lower interest rates, before the US central bank the Fed started raising rates  in March 2022, is a big part of US household debt. This fact is helping to soften the impact of the Fed's increase of rates by 5% over 16 months. The increase in rates helps savers and retirees earn more on savings kept in CD's. The cut in inflation from 9% in 2022 to 3% in July 2022 helps increase the purchasing power of money. It also helps keep the US economy stronger than other world economies, with the Biden economic plan of increased business investment underpinning strong economic growth of 2.4% in the second quarter of 2023. Wars are not a distraction or cost burden for the economy, with Biden shutting down 2 wars in the Middle East and South Asia. Lessons were learned and Biden has been resolute about this, also giving a singular focus to his plan for rebuilding and renewing America on multiple fronts, infrastructure, fighting climate change, inflation, business investment, and fair taxation so that the fruits of labor are shared equally by all of America's people. Doing this required a clear vision, resolute purpose, and a path to action for each step. Biden has done that in ways that only a few presidents have done in the past. In doing this he has shown that America stands for hope and a better future, a land as he never fails to repeat, a land of possibilities. ...

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The Southern Nevada Water Authority has cut water consumption coming from the Colorado River by 25% over 2 decades even as population has grown by 50%. It has done this by fining people for excessive use and paying landowners to remove turf grass. One television ad shows a person being scolded for excessive water use and the line "Vegas is enforcing water waste big time."  As a result of water conservation, water pricing, and replacing turf grass, the seven states fed by the Colorado River and the reservoir Lake Mead have seen much improvement in water usage. Lake Mead hit by a drought in the years 2000-2015 is now risen by 25 feet to 1096 feet in 2020 making it 44% full, the highest level in 6 years. The water conservation efforts in Southern California have yielded results. Metropolitan Water District of Southern California gave out $350 million in rebates for replacing turf grass. Irvine Ranch Water District cut drinking water use by 20% with higher pricing for inefficient use beyond a set limit. Building codes are amended preventing turf grass in front of homes. Lawns and golf courses replaced turf grass, with some golf courses using desert landscapes. In this area of 10 million people 200 million square feet of turf grass was taken out. ...

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About 200 coal plants closed in the U.S. since 2010. Another 40 will close in the years ahead. No new coal plants are being built. At the most the new EPA roll back of emissions rules will stave off closure for a bit longer for a few coal plants, reports Brad Plummer in NYT.

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The protest vote in Uttar Pradesh is just that a protest vote intended to get a message that the work of the Modi government to modernize and industrialize the economy needs to be accelerated to see its effects felt in rural agricultural areas of Indian states. Modi said yesterday- "If you work for ten hours I will work for 18 hours" showing that he sees the need for acceleration, even harder work ahead to modernize and industrialize India.  Disconnect with lower caste untouchable voters called Dalits and economic distress felt from the effects of the pandemic, decades of neglect that take time to correct in one of India's largest and least industrialized states Uttar Pradesh, led to prime minister Modi failing to get most of the 80 of 543 seats as it had done in three previous elections. Lower caste Dalits form 20% of the population, other lower castes another 40% of the population and 20% are Muslim voters. With this mix of voters and the time it takes to modernize and industrialize its economy in a state that was neglected for over 60 years the Modi government's best intentions have not delivered election results in the state in 2024 after the pandemic. Delivery on schemes for sanitation, clean running water, affordable housing, cooking gas for poor households, that have brought 250 million out of poverty nationally and about 40 million in Uttar Pradesh alone, was overlooked by voters, and younger voters. This does not change the path of modernization that countries such as China have taken and which require a strong administration with full public support working with industry and all parts of society to build infrastructure and manufacturing rapidly over 15-20 years. In China this happened from 1990 to 2010. In India this will take 2014- 2030 to achieve. In Bihar, UP, Orissa, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, in all these states with large areas of backwardness in development the only path to realize the aspirations of the people is the path offered for modernization by prime minister Modi. The protest vote of 2024 is then a way of saying to prime minister Modi that the level of development needs only to be accelerated to see its benefits for hundreds of million of people in rural agricultural areas. ...

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A look at graphs showing how much and where the $1.9 trillion aid for the pandemic is going for households, businesses, local governments and programs. This package of aid is ready to pass the US Congress in March 2021.

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Next five year plan for China calls for more concentration on industry, dominance in key sectors identified by China such as rare earths, and more exports- not less in each of these areas. Chinese Communist Party is very conservative and once this has worked for China it is not going to change its reliance on exports even at the risk of leaving goods unsold in China or oversupply. The result is that the US effort to reduce the trade deficit, trying every tool in the book does not work, leading to an effort to resort to tariffs as a last resort to cut the unhealthy and risky $1 trillion trade deficit China has with the world. Has it worked? WSJ and other reports show that large companies are diversifying their supply channels, only smaller companies without the resources are sticking with China dependence for supplies. The tariffs themselves make headlines yet the US has made careful calculations not to upset relationships with key partners Britain, European Union, and Japan, keeping tariffs low at 10% with EU, and 15% with Japan which exports automobiles to the US to recover some of the years US made concessions to Japan. There are also loopholes on certain products where it is in the US interest to do so. As a result the effective tariff is 10-12.5% not 17-20% shown in reports. Of this 10% what is passed on to consumers is small- as in autos 80% of tariffs are not passed on by auto importers such as Toyota and Subaru because of the higher margins postpandemic. In retail only 30% is passed on again because of the post pandemic higher margins. The administration of DJT has also carefully worked with world oil suppliers to keep oil prices low, lower than in 2023-2024. The result is that inflation is at about 3% in September 2025. The idea that a capricious DJT is doing the tariffs is a myth as careful economic planners including Bessent, Jamieson, Lighthizer, and Luttnick, economic advisors in the Republican party, are carefully articulating the policy with room for DJT's political talk and appeal to public sentiment. ...