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How coronavirus is seeing the collapsing bookings and losses for Airbnb and Uber. Capital invested in these ideas for speculative profits could have been better invested in public health and infrastructure to yield lasting value and benefits. One of the lasting lessons of this crisis.

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Two studies now show that it isn't that coronavirus just takes away the infirm or elderly who would have died anyway this year or the next. It is taking people away who still had over 10 years to live. Professor Biggs at the London School of Health Hygiene and Tropical Medicine says this is is what is happening from the study he is conducting.

A paper by Scotland based researchers published online by the Wellcome Trust a London based foundation found the average number of years of life lost to coronavirus for healthy adults is 14 for men and 12 for women. Using data from Italy and UK on the kind of long term conditions in the general population , the researchers found that for those suffering from common chronic illnesses and cancer including multiple conditions, the researchers found that people of this type lost about 10 years on average.

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Wonder who makes the Lysol and Dettol so common in the U.S. and Europe, India, other parts of Asia. It is a British Company Reckitt & Colman, going back to 1817, founded in Lincolnshire, and based in Slough, that merged with Benckiser of Netherlands in 1999. It operates in 60 countries with 40,000 employees and 3.5 billion pounds in sales last quarter. Dettol soap is a household name in India and its push for better hygiene can be seen in ads on Indian television. A 32 million pound fund was set up to promote better hygiene after sales increased by double digits.

This fits in with prime minister Modi's effort for good sanitation, toilets for 1.2 billion people, and the Clean India or Swacch India campaign that is helping India in the fight against coronavirus today.

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The head of South Korea's Disease Control committee says that patients with coronavirus can't relapse. About 277 patients tested positive after recovery. Looking at this the scientists found that there were harmless traces that were incorrectly detected by the RNA test which are not live so that patients are still in good health with no relapse. This is a very important bit of information for reopening different countries to modified normal life.

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Britain will miss the target of 100,000 tests a day set by Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary. It should be achieved in the next few days though. It was right to set an ambitious target say officials as the most important thing is the direction of travel. It was right to set a brave target even though there are shortcomings needing to be corrected. It is a moving target as about 120,000 tests a day will be needed for health care workers alone, say NHS officials.

Matt Hancock is planning to set up a test and contact tracing system similar to South Korea by middle of May. 18,000 tracers will be needed by middle of May. A smartphone app developed by NHS will be used to track and alert people.

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The economic damage is larger in some states with a larger manufacturing base and one tending to be cyclical. 20% of Michigan's GDP is in auto manufacturing. The large jump in cases to 40,000 and 3600 deaths have led to stricter quarantine. The unemployment rate in Michigan is forecast at 23% much higher than the national average of 16% that peaks in May. It is also likely to last longer till early 2020. As a result of the strict quarantine  larger parts of retail, service and construction sectors are affected. This has led to protests in areas where the coronavirus threat is not as large as it is in Detroit.

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Britain's Cabinet Office minister supports the scientific community in its efforts to ensure contact tracing combined with random testing to track community levels of virus penetration. This supports reopening with reliable data and information on how to proceed. Britain is pursuing this strategy.

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Captain Tom Moore a soldier from the Second World War II who marks his 100th birthday and has become a national hero in Britain. He decided to take 100 laps in his garden before he turned 100 to thank the Nation Health Service for a surgery of his hip. The activity created a fund raising drive for NHS raising 30 million pounds.

See the Royal Mail mailbox painted blue in his honor for the 100th birthday in this story, and the Spitfire and Hurricane planes flown  by the RAF in his honor. Tom showed humor in adversity, and a mature wisdom, no-nonsense attitude, to be an inspiration for young and old, says Britain's army chief.

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This analysis from The Times of London provides critical information on the strategy for successfully tackling the coronavirus following the example of South Korea and progress in Britain.

The random community testing is key to getting an idea of the scale of infections in the community at large. The critical ratio called reproduction ratio tell one if the virus is under control and how lockdowns can be lifted. For Britain this 0.7 estimated by Imperial College. It has a 2 week lag. 1.0 or close to 1.0 is not good. Germany after being at about 0.7 has moved up to 1.0 with 2 week lag in information says the Robert Koch Institute. This means a lot of work ahead, it won't be easy.

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The drug Remdesvir diminishes time to recovery by almost a third, say health experts. A key member of the American task force Dr. Anthony Fauci said it has "a clear cut significant positive effect in diminishing time to recovery." It was used in treating Ebola virus.

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Prime minister Edouard Philippe of France sets out the detailed plan for reopening the country in phases starting April 28.

Key points-

Masks will be compulsory, travel between regions will be restricted.

New method of social distancing on subways operating at 70% of capacity- leaving an empty seat between 2 persons both wearing masks. Reduced trains scheduled between regions.

No gatherings of more than 10 people.

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Life in India as it passes Day 35 of the lockdown.

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In parts of Africa access to food supplies will remain a problem. Estimates are for 15 to 50 million people facing food insecurity in this region from June to August 2020. Governments in many African countries are struggling to cope with the demand for food supplies.The UN's World Food Program is asking donor countries in Europe and America to provide $1.9 billion (1.4 billion euros).

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In parts of Africa including Kenya and Ghana a simple step like washing hands required for preventing coronavirus is not easy to do without running tap water. Lack of safe clean water is a problem in many areas making it that much more difficult to wash hands.

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Public health experts warn that it is essential that countries reopening their economy have a reproduction ratio of much less than 1.0 so that the rate of increase is under control. Germany's Robert Koch Institute which advises the German government says the reproduction ratio which was 0.70 in mid April is now up to 0.96 after creeping back up. This is based on a mathematical model and extrapolated from infection numbers several weeks back.  It doesn't reflect the change by recent easing of lockdown measures starting with reopening smaller stores. This validates the careful approach adopted by France which was put forward by prime minister Edouard Philippe in his address to the National Assembly. The Assembly approved the plan 368 to 100. More legislation will back up the French government's authority to ban non essential travel between French departments and the creation of a large brigade to perform contract tracing. That involves finding testing and isolating everyone potentially infected, using dedicated locations. Detailed restrictions on travel, work and gatherings will take effect when France reopens partially on May 11.  France is also putting resources behind its testing program to test every person having coronavirus symptoms, and all they are in contact with. That means about 700,000 tests a week. Officials will generate a color coded map from this with red areas facing more restrictions than green areas. Student size is capped at 115 per class. Cafes, restaurants, movie theatres and large museums will remain closed. Gatherings of more than 10 banned. Those who can work from home asked to do so. Public transit users will be required to use masks, and marks on platforms will indicate the social distance required. Only essential travel is allowed more than 62 miles from home. These rules remain till June 2, when new ones will be set. Large music festivals and sporting events are canceled till the fall. Mr. Philippe says "these efforts will not be in vain and should allow us to arrange for a better summer season." ...

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Since the beginning of the coronavirus crisis Ford Motor Company has added $8 billion in unsecured debt and $15 billion in credit lines. It now has $35 billion in cash as it faces the loss of $5 billion in the second quarter. Ford idled its plants in U.S. and Europe since mid-March.  Ford plans to reopen production on May 18.

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Advertising has been significantly impacted for Google as it generates a large part of revenue from small business and travel, two sectors hard hit by the coronavirus.

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Rural counties in California and Washington call for easing of lockdowns earlier than more urban areas in the two states. Social distancing is much easier in rural areas, even with shops open. The governors of the two states say they will maintain their stay at home orders till about the middle of May.

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Britain has opted to take the approach of South Korea and Taiwan, where the app developed for contact tracing adopts a centralized approach sending information to a central server.  The Google Apple app is taking a decentralized approach where the information on who has the virus and who they came into contact with is not sent to a central server. Asian countries with success in lifting lockdowns have adopted a centralized approach as this has given proven results in allowing the rest of society to function smoothly without lockdown, by isolating a few people who have or have come into contact with people with virus. In a crisis of this magnitude with the huge risks involved democracies such as South Korea and Taiwan, other Asian countries, and now Britain, see less risk in relying on the centralized approach, because it works more effectively to accomplish the task of limiting spread and letting society function without lockdown.

 

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Germany's retail association HDE says about 50,000 shops will be lost in non food sector. There are about 300,000 shops in Germany. These shops have lost 30 billion euros already in lost sales, and with traffic low are losing about 1 billion euros a day, even after being allowed to open. Many shops will be missing when one walks around cities in Germany. 

A big problem is the cost of rent which is not being deferred in the crisis. When rent is deferred corporate landlords charge 5% to 9% interest.