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Nathaniel Taplin of the WSJ says the tariffs put on $50 billion high tech products by the U.S. and retaliatory tariffs on $50 billion products are not about a trade war but a way both countries will negotiate setting out their two positions.  A look at the role of foreign firms in China shows China has access to new technology using these firms as a conduit and these firms are also generating more jobs, being highly productive. These firms Taplin says will set back their investments if no agreement is reached or if it is harder to bring Chinese made products into the U.S. At this time China badly needs this investment and technology access because of their dynamism compared to inefficient state run firms as it struggles under a massive debt load with very high debt to GDP ratio.  A major issue is job growth as companies getting foreign investment are much more effective in jobs generation, delivering 10% of all urban job growth from 2007 to 2016, using just 5.5% of total investment. Return on assets at 9% compares to 4% at state run firms. If this dynamism is reduced or affected in some way China could have to provide more unproductive debt buildup stimulus.  For these reasons China has good reason to make concessions, says Taplin. Trump administration will ask for greater semiconductor purchases, much looser joint venture or foreign ownership requirements, higher Chinese payment for U.S. intellectual property. For all these reasons this is not about a trade war but about serious negotiations taking place so that there is a level playing field in the next phase of competition in high tech between the U.S., China and the E.U. changing the dynamics of the trade relationship in ways that reverse the trends of the past. ...

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This report in the WSJ makes the America centric thinking mistake of forgetting where China started from in assessing progress and China's new priorities. In 1960 the World Bank shows China per capita at $90 which does not change much till 1990 when it was $300, the Deng opening to western technology and capital pushed it up to $3000 the year 2000 (US $36,000) and $4500 in 2010 (US $50,000) when the global financial crisis hit. Since 2010 the Chinese economy was burdened by high local government debt and struggled to get to $10,000 in 2020 under Xi Jinping's first two terms as president. Yet it paid a huge price for this -the chance of Bo Xilai (2014) upsetting the twin banners of Science and Modernization of the May 4th 1919 movement that set the course of China for 100 years uninterrupted through the Nationalists, the Japanese occupation, the Maoist CCP, the Deng CCP opening and Jinping CCP pullback. The huge inequality was seen as an opportunity for Bo Xi Lai or some other leader to capitalize on moving China in an unknown direction that posed risks for the future of China. Even then the first preference of Xi would be to carry on with what had worked after Deng. Yet it was clear that working class votes were shifting the dynamics of elections after the Trump election and closing the doors to open access to western capital, technology, and investment. With Trump in erratic and uncertain ways, with Biden after the elections of 2020 consistent and with single minded determination to limit flows. Not just Xi, any other Chinese leader would have had to have the internal discussions about the need to shift back to a model China was familiar with and one that worked before- that of state intervention in the economy, that of reducing the inequalities that posed risks for the CCP's survival as forging a path for stability to carry out the twin banners of the May 4, 1919 Movement - Science and Modernization as China's salvation. Unlike the hysteria about China posing a challenge to the US these internal debates of Xi and the party may have concluded that the US with about half the population of China's as it grows with immigration in the future and multiple times the per capita GDP was a country that no other country was going to come close to. In this sense the supply chains are deceptive as these are likely to be completely redone under the Biden administration to bring most important manufacturing back to China. It is in this context that Xi had limited room to manoeuvre and decided to focus on stability for the long term to fulfill China's dream of the May 4, 1919 Movement of the last 100 years for Science and Modernization casting aside the risks associated for instability of the inequality that comes with more of the western type of growth, and with the climate change risks also associated with it. Lower growth gives China a chance to correct some of the flaws of the hyper growth that was partly of its own making and partly thrust upon it by investors from the outside, so that the new climate would best serve the goals of the May 4, 1919 Movement of keeping high the banners of Science and Modernization. This kind of rethinking is also going on in the US in the same manner about inequalities and hardships for workers and families, with some of the anger directed at China as internal political sentiment- hence the trillions of dollars moved by the Biden administration to address the flaws of growth under free markets and intervene in the economy where needed as in climate change to give firm sense of direction. In a sense the direction taken in different contexts the American and the Chinese are the same - address the problems of workers and families, of the people, as Lincoln had pointed out and striven so hard for, so that Labor is the more important than Capital, and workers and families vital to the nation.   ...

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Galston says the Republican establishment's support for Trump before the Republican primary in Iowa is shortsighted and a mistake.

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A useful look at all demographic groups age, race and gender in 2024 compared to 2020 and 2016 offered by DW.com. There is higher participation today in the process of choosing candidates than ever before even as mediums including the internet have become increasingly fragmented. Candidates in 2024 have to reach many smaller groups of demographics by race, gender, education, ages groups over television and radio than ever before. 

244 million people over the age of 18 will participate in choosing between Harris and Trump in 2024 and for the US Congress.

71% of white voters voted compared to 59% for non white voters. Only 54% of Latinos voted in 2020. Youngest voters 18 years to 29 years participation in 2016 was very low just 39%, it increased to 50% in 2020. 

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In his 2019 State of the Union speech Mr. Trump calls for unity but continued emphasis on the border wall and strict immigration. Democrats offered little approval of the speech even when it sounded conciliatory on parental leave and infrastructure. The president continued his criticism of Democratic leaders Schumer and Biden in informal remarks.  The president called immigration a "moral issue," saying "no issue more illustrates the divide between America's working class and America's political class than illegal immigration," that wealthy donors and politicians call for open borders while living behind gates, walls, and guards. This is the first time a president goes into a State of the Union Speech with 37% of Americans supporting him according to a Gallup poll. The only time a U.S. president had less support was in 1983 when Reagan faced a recession and in 2007 and 2008 when Bush faced problems with the Iraq War. Another feature of this House of Representatives in 2019 after the 2018 Congressional elections is that 131 women are now in the House. The president congratulated the women to wide applause.   ...

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Oil price drops by $5 in one day to $65 a barrel as Iran US/Israel ceasefire June 23, 2025 following the carefully measured Iran missile strike (14 missiles) strike on Qatar airbase with early warning to the US. The move was seen as a moderation shown by Iran, and DJT pursued the option of ceasefire with Qatar's mediation. An Israel Iran ceasefire is expected in the next 12 hours.

This closes a chapter of the nuclear weapons development proliferation pursued by Iran and blocked by Israel and the US. It started with Israel's strikes on Iran nuclear sites. 

This puts the attention back to the economy and completing the trade agreements under the Trump administration's tariffs and efforts to level playing field in world trade.

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Former Louisiana fovernor Bobby Jindal comes under severe criticism from the Washington Post for policies it says hurt the poor by turning down federal Medicaid funds under Obamacare, for using rainy day funds, and cutting spending on education and other needed programs in the state. It says Jindal pursued Grover Norquist's no tax pledge leading to spending cuts in the state and budget gaps, merely to appeal to voters in the GOP presidential primaries. Jindal's appeal to Republican voters actually fell sharply because of unpopular policies and he did not qualify for participation in the presidential televised Republican debates. Republican voters turned to outside candidates such as Trump, Carson and others.

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Russian president Putin talks to journalists at his year end news conference in Dec. 2015. He has sharp words for Turkey, saying Russia's advanced air defence system S-400 is now in place to prevent any attacks on Russian war planes over Syria. And says the costs of the bombing campaign in Syria comes out of the Defense Ministry's training budget. Putin calls Donald trump "a very bright and talented man." He tells Russians that the Russian economy was coming back after a sharp recession. He points to Russian life expectancy at 71 as one achievement of this period, as the government considers raising the retirement age to conserve resources.

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The two front runners among Democrats in the campaign for President in the U.S. are building their lead on the basis of programs to reduce inequality and build the social fabric. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren support a program of Medicare For All. This program is a single payer program run by the government so that medical costs can be cut by the government directly negotiating cuts, which would reduce some of the cost.The WSJ looks at the ways this can be financed at a cost of between $11 trillion over a decade. Programs of less extensive coverage  in Medicare for All excluding undocumented workers and having individuals share some costs would cost this much, according to some experts.The gap would be financed by taxes such as that on Medicare currently. Sanders additional tax premium would be 7.5% paid by employers and 4% by employees. About $1 trillion is generated by each percentage point of taxes over a decade says CBO, so that a combined 11.5%  tax would cover Medicare for All. Alternatives or some combination would include this with taxes on the wealthy. Tax hikes on wealth, income and financial transactions would generate $11 trillion over a decade, according to the Committee for a Responsible Budget. Currently a majority favors a Medicare for All plan, and this support could grow as people understand that it would be progressive and reduce the burden on the middle class by shifting some of the burden to the wealthier in society in today's economy, where much of the increase in wealth over the last 3 decades has gone to upper income people. Much more so in the U.S. than in Europe creating a tear in the social fabric and disaffection with Democrats, who in earlier administrations from Clinton to Obama failed to maintain the gains made under FDR, Truman and Kennedy. This has led to a Republican administration under president Trump that won over disaffected Democrats but hope to merley to maintain the status quo. Warren is trying to change this with bold social programs that fit today's needs and circumstances. ...

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The European Union has a massive surplus of $147 billion with the U.S. President Trump is making this an issue in trade negotiations. A 20% tariff on German cars imported into the U.S. is part of the tariff response from the Trump administration. 

To settle this dispute Germany is making new offers with the visit of European Commission president, Jean Claude Juncker, to Washington. France sees little room for compromise as it sees Trump's efforts designed to break European unity by driving a wedge between France and Germany.

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Everything you might want to know about coffee, where it comes from, how cultivation is changing with climate change and higher temperatures, and the effort to map the coffee genome. With higher temperatures the farming of coffee moves to higher altitudes in coffee growing countries in the tropics, but it is easier to cross breed the 124 varieties to produce a plant that can withstand the change in temperatures and one that can resist fungus.  A coffee fungus and higher altitude rains destroyed much of the crop in Central America including Guatemala. This led to increased migration to Mexico and U.S. of farmers leading up to Mr. Trump's plan to have the National Guard of Mexico police Mexico's border with Guatemala.  Coffee is a sensitive plant and needs cooler weather and water which is found more in the tropics. Growing it in California or in Italy makes it very costly leading to Frinj coffee being sold in California at $16 a cup. Climate change could reduce the area where coffee can be grown by about 50% in the tropical countries from South east Asia to African countries such as Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Ethiopia, and in south America Colombia and Brazil, says Climate Institute, Washington DC based climate change experts.   ...

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Tensions rise in the Korean peninsula after the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile by North Korea that could reach Alaska. U.S. General Brooks says only "self-restraint, which is a choice, is all that separates armistice from war." The 1953 armistice never really ended the war between the North and the South on the Korean peninsula. The Kim regime in Pyongyang sees its missile systems and nuclear weapons as the only way for it to survive. For the U.S., Japan and North Korea, the situation is getting graver by the year, each year that North Korea develops its missile systems. The U.S. conducted its own military exercize with South Korea off the east coast, firing a number of missiles into the sea. Japan is now considering the Thaad missile defense system for its own defense. That missile defense system was put in place in South Korea by the U.S. in 2016. In a separate analysis David Sanger of the NYT says U.S. options are limited. After the collapse of the Gaddafi regime in Libya which gave up its nuclear weapons capabilities, other regimes see the nuclear weapons as a way to survive, which is why the North Korean regime puts emphasis on its nuclear program. ...

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Negotiations in Qatar end with the signing of a peace agreement with the Taliban for the first time in two decades. President Trump persisted in the effort following stalled talks in September 2018. Talks went on for 18 months with Afghan American diplomat Khalizad appointed by president Trump to lead negotiations. The agreement was signed in Qatar by Khalizad and Mullah Baradar, in the presence of Secretary of State Pompeo. President Trump stated his view on Afghanistan and places such as Iraq in a New Delhi press conference recently- the U.S. could not act in a (permanent) police role in foreign countries. Efforts were made under previous presidents to end the conflict. President Trump persisted and made this a priority of his administration, following similar policy in Syria and Iraq, where strong deployment of American forces was followed by removal of forces. From beginning to end the deployment was planned in this way, so that resources could be used to improve capabilities for future needs. ...

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The US is on track to bring back 350,000 jobs in 2022 that were taken overseas during the two decades of hyper growth in China, according to the Reshoring Initiative. A false idea was created mostly by economists and business that shifted jobs to China during two Democratic and one Republican administration, the Clinton, Obama and the Bush administrations, that this would benefit the American workers and families through lower prices at the retail level. It ignored the severe damage this would do to jobs, incomes and whole communities when factories on which they depended for a living were shipped overseas. It damaged labor in ways that destroyed much of the American working class and the families built during the years of FDR, Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy and Johnson. Business failed during this period to meet the challenge of higher American wages and productivity issues by using innovation and other steps to keep manufacturing at home.  This led to the hyper growth that did not benefit China, because a moderate pace of growth would have helped China control the rampant contamination of its air, water and soil. It also was leading China to a dead end reached during the 2016 election campaign with the election of president Trump with deep discontent from workers in midwestern states. The pandemic simply underscored the need for supply chains that were close to home and reliable in crises. By 2020 president  Biden was committing to a restructuring of the supply chains and pushing forward with it with legislation in the $369 billion Climate bill, and SCIENCE and Chips Act, to make solar panels, semiconductors and other products in the US. Reports from China showed that growth was slight or flat during 2022 and youth unemployment at 20%. The policy was to shift people back from the cities to the rural areas and support the informal economy, a sense of nationalist sentiment, and preparing for a future where the supply chain for the US and the European Union had moved away from China. In the long run the policies now look as ones that benefitted neither the US, the European Union, India or China.  ...

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Elise Stefanik is the new UN ambassador in 2024.

Elise Stefanik is the youngest person elected to the US Congress. She was elected for the 21st District of New York in 2014. Her background is working for her father's firm Premium Plywood Products, attending Albany Academy for high school, and Harvard University- its Institute for Politics for undergraduate degree. She was impressed by Ted Sorenson, assistant to John Kennedy, in his lectures at that Institute and went on to participate in several campaigns after being assistant in domestic policy for George W. Bush. She helped Paul Ryan in his vice presidential campaign in 2012 with Mitt Romney.  And joined the Trump maga group later by 2019 similar to JD Vance and other younger Republicans.

In 2021 she was made chair of the Republican conference- replacing Liz Cheney. Reelected in 2024 by a large margin from 21st District of upstate New York.