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Total's new CEO, Patrick Pouyanne, is moving ahead with plans for the $27 billion Russian Arctic Yamal LNG project. As China shifts away from coal with increased imports of LNG and pipeline natural gas, it is keen on providing financing for the project. Chinese banks will provide the bulk of the financing. Pouyanne disclosed in an WSJ interview that this would be $15 billion in Chinese bank financing to be arranged in 2015. Most of the LNG will go to meet China's needs. Partners in the Yamal project are OAO Novatek of Russia, and China National Petroleum Corporation. OAO Novatek's major shareholder is on the western sanctions list making it difficult to obtain financing from western banks. This makes the project riskier because of foreign exchange risks taken on by Total SA which are to hedge against.

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Bjorn Lomborg of the Copenhagen Consensus Center says about the decision by the Obama adminisration to stop contributing to World Bank financed coal power plants- including one in South Africa- does not take into account the simple fact that 1.2 billion people living in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia have no access to electricity. In the sub-Saharan region of Africa (excluding S. Africa) the entire electricity generating capacity is about 28 gigawatts, or about the same as Arizona with a population of about 9 million compared to 860 million in the region. He says China was able to lift 680 million people out of poverty with urbanization and industry powered by coal. There is no alternative to low cost fossil fuels for the poorer regions of the earth. This is why the International Energy Agency esimates fossil fuel generated energy to remain about the same percentage in 2035 as it is today- 81%. Shale based naural gas can make a difference for air pollution and China is begining to make the shift away from coal- for sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, this goal will take time. ...

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Researchers at Beihang University and Tsinghua University in Beijing studied how temperatures and relative humidity affected the natural transmission of coronavirus in 100 cities across China, The looked at data on January 21, 22 and 23, before Chinese authorites stopped its spread. They calculated that the infection was more contagious in northern China, with temperatures and relative humidity low, than among the cities along China's warmer and more humid south east coast. Their conclusion- high temperature and high relative humidity significantly reduce the transmission of coronavirus. The researchers are funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China. Researchers at the Institute of Virology, University of Maryland, have found that the consistently similar weather across the Northern Hemisphere between 30 degrees latitude and 50 degrees latitude north, running through China to South Korea, Japan, Iran, Italy, France, provides temperatures of between 5 and 11 degrees Celsius (41 to 51 degree Fahrenheit, with relative humidity between 44% to 84% and low specific and absolute humidity. The conditions in which the coronavirus thrives.  ...

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The G-7 leaders of US, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Britain and Japan along with invitees from India and Indonesia will meet at a resort hotel 62 miles south of Munich. Located in the Alps mountains near the Austrian border it has no air conditioning. The approach is to have as near as possible a natural setting with a stream that generates 20% of the energy and a rustic but refined setting. There are 5 rooms each for every country leader and a separate place for their staff. It was built between 1914-1916 by Johannes Muller, and reclaimed by his family in 1961 after being taken over by the US Army. His grandson Dietmar Muller-Elmau is the current owner. 

Elmau rebuilt the hotel in 2007 after a fire, with a 115 room building The Hideaway, and a separate building the Retreat nearby for the G-7 type gathering.

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Strategic siting in renewable rich areas (Dallas center the largest is in renewable rich area) and fair cost allocation to not burden small businesses and households are major issues in Data Center building. Data centers for AI -rows and rows of servers 5000 in hyperscale data centers- used 4% of the US total electricity use in 2024. This is growing rapidly. By 2030 this is expected to grow by more than double, by 133%. About 60% of this to power the servers and 30% for cooling the servers. About a third of these servers are located in Virginia, Texas and California. How will this affect Cost of Living concerns, affect electricity prices? Carnegie Mellon working with North Carolina State University did the modeling on the energy and emissions implications of data center buildup in the US in their Open Outlook Initiative. A 8% annual increase in electricity prices is expected on average and as high as 25% in Virginia by 2030.  Total of about 40% increase over 5 years. Between 2014 and 2024 10 year period average cost for a home electricity use went up 25% from $114 a month to $142. This would now go up by 40% to about $200 by 2030 in just 5 years significantly impacting cost of living in the US. In which states will it strain electricity grids? In 2023 data centers consumed 26% of the total electricity supply in Virginia. In North Dakota 15%, Nebraska 12%, Iowa 11%, Oregon 11% according to Electric Power Research Institute. What are the energy types used? Natural gas is used for 40% of the data center electricity, wind and solar 25%, nuclear 20% and coal 15%.   ...

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The Mission LIFE launched by pm Modi in Gujarat in 2021 has achieved significant results-

"Under Mission Life our efforts are spread across many domains such as: Making local bodies environment-friendly, saving water, saving energy, reducing waste, and e-waste, adopting healthy lifestyles, adoption of natural farming, promotion of millets." 

"These efforts will save over 22 billion units of energy, save nine trillion litres of water, reduce waste by 375 million tons, recycle almost one million tons of e-waste, and generate around 170 million dollars of additional cost saving by 2030," he said.

"Further, it will help us reduce the wastage of 15 billion tons of food," Mr. Modi said, noting that the global primary crop production in 2020, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization, was about nine billion tons.

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With the natural disasters following one after the other as hurricanes Milton and Helene have done in Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, the dire disaster funding situation at FEMA in 2024 needs to be tackled. The Nation is throwing dollars in wasted spending with capital market misallocation at a time when no provision is made for climate change action in disaster relief. To compound the insult AI billionaires are asking for the equivalent of the GDP of many European nations to fund AI for profit.

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The Ukraine war with increases in prices of oil and natural gas, and food imports has hit Bangladesh hard.  The currency has declined by 20% which also adds to the cost of imports. The government of Sheikh Hasina is seeking $1 billion each from the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank.  It is also seeking $4.5 billion for budgetary and balance of payments support through the new Resilience and Sustainability Facility set up by the IMF. The government is doing this in advance to avoid a situation in which most of the tax revenues go to paying for imports at high prices with little left for spending on development needs. Bangladesh imports cooking oil, wheat and other food, as well as fossil energy. The current account deficit is $17 billion and the foreign exchange reserves are about $39 billion in July, down from $45.5 billion in 2021, enough for 5 months of imports for a nation of 160 million people.  Action is being taken to curtail use of air conditioning at mosques. Power outages are increasing and electricity rationing is being done. ...

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The European Union is making good use of the crisis in Ukraine to ramp up its shift to renewable energy. This WSJ report shows charts of where the EU is focusing its efforts from conservation, heat pumps, hydrogen, to wind and solar. Wind and solar show massive increases by 2030. By 2030 the European Union plans to increase wind and solar energy from 20 billion cubic metres to 170 billion cubic metres according to estimates from The European Commission shown in this graph by WSJ.

By the end of 2022 two thirds of Russian natural gas imports to the EU will have been replaced and by 2030 all of such imports will be replaced. 

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Kristof of the NYT says the narrative about Hillary Clinton being dishonest is clearly overdone and inaccurate. He says the gaffes about the use of personal email server have unfairly created a distorted narrative. On changing positions on trade and minimum wage- this happens frequently with all the candidates. Some are glib enough for not being noticed, Clinton not a natural politician drawing attention. On Libya, and on Syria, Clinton is blamed for the President's errors and not given credit for pushback in league with Panetta, Gen. Kean and Gen. Jones, that has influenced changes made in 2016, and the president accepting blame for errors. In this instance Clinton has been far from shifty by publicly allying herself with Leon Panetta's position in "Worthy Fights," and Gen. Jones's remarks. Far from having erred on Libya and Syria policy, Hillary Clinton, like Chuck Hagel and others in the administration including Joe Biden, showed exceptional patience in dealing with the president, national security advisor, and McDonough in policy matters- when they were right but the country was weary of what were seen as futile global engagements in remote areas setting too high a bar for any action. Clinton rightly described this as a pendulum swinging too far in the opposite direction after the Bush/Cheney years. On young women and being "progressive" Hillary Clinton is from a older generation that experienced the kind of discrimination that young women fail to grasp, according to a recent analysis of University of Massachusetts polling survey results cited in the Washingon Post. A PolitiFact Pulitzer winning fact checking site shows 50% of the Clinton statments are either true or mostly true, compared to 49% for Bernie Sanders, 9 percent for Trump, 22% for Ted Cruz, and 52% for John Kasich. ...

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Economy Minister Habeck says- "Our energy system will be structured differently: we will have 80% renewable energies by 2030."  Germany will close its last 3 nuclear plants this week. Germany is shutting down all nuclear energy when other countries are increasing reliance on nuclear energy. Westinghouse is building Poland's first nuclear plant. Britain, France and Finland are increasing nuclear energy with its very low carbon emissions. Biden administration in the US is backing the building of a new generation of smaller nuclear reactors. Mr. Habeck the Economy minister says for the short term Germany has its natural gas storage tanks half full with the winter heating season over. New LNG terminals and imports help replace Russian supplies. In the long term Germany is way ahead in renewable energy than other countries and will craft its own solution in its own way.

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Linda McMahon, the Education Secretary and RFK Jr. the Health Secretary team up to fight the misplaced approaches to children's health and mental health. Typical is separation of health and mental health to treat them separately. The authors say there ia reason as early as the 2nd century the Roman poet Juvenal has commended "a sound mind in a sound body," that in so many languages and cultures has found a precious place since, in Latin "mens sana in corpore sano." We ignore this at our own and the Nation's peril, when in every culture this is so clearly grasped and cultivated. Healthy nutrition including the kinds of natural foods such as fruits, vegetables and ancient grains and getting fast foods and chemicals out of our food, and healthy exercise, participation in sports are a better way to approach mental health, and for the backward looking side of tech a no cell phones in schools rule. Screen and social media addiction, indoor lifestyles, and food with harmful ingredients are the true source of our children's mental health problems and should be treated as the culprits, say McMahon and RFK Jr.  ...

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Could it be that Russia apart from its support for South Ossetia and Putin's dislike of Sashkavili also had other goals in mind. If alternative supplies were available of natural gas to be shipped from the Caspian area countries to western Europe would this give Europe some independent sources of natural gas, when at this time Gazprom is the major source of natural gas to Western Europe. By acting decisively against Georgia Russia pretty much kills off the idea of additional pipelines that compete with Russian supply and Russia could build its own pipelines and ship the region's natural gas by buying it from these countries. There may be much more to the Russian action than mere cold war type moves because Russia is keen on building itself up economically seeing the growth in the Asian countries.

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In 2024 one third of the mortgage payment is the average cost of insurance and taxes. Insurance went up with natural disasters fires and floods, taxes go up as home prices surge as they have in 10 years without enough new housing being built.

 For half of people in 5 major Metro areas, Rochester and Syracuse in NY, Omaha in Nebraska, New Orleans, and Miami, at least a quarter of borrowers spend more than half of their mortgage payment in insurance and taxes. Nationwide in US 9%, up from 4% in 2014 spend more than half of their mortgage payment on insurance and taxes.

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This report in DW.com shows that Germany is only now coming to grips with Merkel's policy to China. A policy that had no idea where the relationship was headed and no grasp of its implications for Germany in the way that Merkel's policy shaped economic relations with Russia with an overdependence on natural gas supplies. It is left to the newly elected Greens-SPD coalition to face the consequences of that policy as Germany faces rationing of gas for the winter between industry and households. Annalena Baerbock, Germany's Foreign Minister says clearly that it is unacceptable that force should be used in international relations. Baerbock told a UN conference - "We do not accept when international law is broken and a larger neighbor invades a smaller neighbor in violation of international law- an of course that also applies to China."  Clearly China and Russia are different in their economies and industry. China is the world's largest exporter and depends on international law and freedom of navigation on the oceans as a trading nation that it has become with over 1 trillion dollars in exports in 2022. It is through freedom of navigation on the oceans and respect for international law that an exporting and manufacturing nation that makes for export is able to conduct its affairs.    ...

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Gazprom's Chairman, Alexei Miller, says Ukraine owes $1.89 billion for gas deliveries after missing a March 7 payment deadline for Feb. deliveries. Transit shipments through Ukraine to Europe will continue. Russia provides 30% of Europe's gas needs and 15% of all Europe's gas demand goes through Ukraine, particularly Germany, Italy and Britain's utility companies. Europe's dependence on Russian supplies of natural gas gives a new twist to the crisis in Ukraine. Russia also needs the revenue from the natural gas exports to finance its own development as growth has slowed down sharply in 2013-2014, making this a situation where both sides in Europe need to resolve the standoff in Ukraine wihout escalation.

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Natural gas production starts 90 miles off the northern coast of Norway near Hammerfest, on the Artic Ocean area. A most difficult area to operate in, Statoil Hydro, the Norwegian oil company has addressed this challenge with natural gas production to feed the eastern coast of the USA using liquefied natural gas ships for transportation. Costs for such production are much higher and higher oil and natural gas prices and increasing global demand are expected to support such difficult discovery and exploration in the years to come.

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A Japanese scientist at Princeton University has done work since the 1960's to show that increased level of carbon dioxide lead to increased temperatures on the surface of the earth. Syukuro Manabe at Princeton was honored for this work with the Nobel Prize in Physics. Also honored is a German scientist Hasselmann who showed the connection between weather and climate with his own model. His research shows methods for attributing various impacts on climate of human activity and natural phenomena. Also honored is Italian scientist Parisi for his work on complex systems uncovering patterns in disordered complex materials.

Today's understanding of how the use of coal and other fossil fuels at the scale done in China, Europe, US and India is affecting the climate comes from the work of these three scientists.

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The WSJ's Iliff and Luhnow's interview with Emilio Lozoya, CEO of Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX). Lozoya says about the new oil law that allows foreign companies to compete with Pemex, as something that should have happened decades ago. President Calderon of the PAN party pushed hard for this, but failed to get the support of the PRI during his term in office 2006-2012. It made sense for Mexico because President Cardozo (1997-2002) of Brazil already set a successful example by doing this for Brazil's state oil company, Petrobras. The main point is that competition is good for Pemex, and good for Mexico and Mexicans, and Lozoya emphasizes this. Under the law Pemex can keep oil fields it already has and have the first pick in future fields. Pemex is expected to partner in oil field exploration in deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico where it needs the technologies of foreign oil companies. Under the new rules Pemex will have 2 years in which to make the transition to a well managed business enterprise. A new tax code works to increase nonoil tax revenues, so that Mexico does not depend on Pemex profits for one third of its budget. It also gives Pemex autonomy and control over its budget, and lowers its tax burden to international levels. This frees up badly needed resources for investment opportunties to increase Mexico's growth rate. Lozoya says the investment budget could be increased from $25 billion to about $30-$35 billion as a result. He gives a list of badly needed projects not taken up by Pemex for lack of funds- developing natural gas from Mexico's large reserves where Mexico imports its natural gas from Texas increasing the cost of manufacturing, building pipelines where Mexico transports fuel by truck which is 15 times more costly, making its own fertilizer and petrochemicals instead of importing it in a country where 60% of farmland is not fertilized. There is so much to be done that Lozoya realizes his main challenge will be execution. Enormous responsibility rests on Lozoya's shoulders to get the execution right. Pemex has 160,000 employees and crude oil sales of $130 billion in 2012. He has a Masters degree in economic development from Harvard and managed investment funds in New York before this position. Cardozo also picked an investment banking professional for the job of recharting the course of Petrobras and attracting foreign investment....

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India moves forward with ports and maritime development with projects worth 38,000 crores or $4.75 billion including Mangaluru Port Authority and refinery, petrochemical industries. Priority is being place in port connectivity and development for 150 projects on a 7500 kilometres coastline. Ports are important for logistics and exports, a key priority for linking India to the new supply chain being built by the US and EU, which would link India to manufacturing supply chain in Vietnam, Japan and other countries. Natural gas brought in through ports would enhance green development to reduce climate change emissions. India's coastline of 7500 kms compares with 20,000 for the US, 25,000 for Australia and 14,000 for China. India's coastline is about that of Brazil and a bit less than Mexico. New Zealand with a coastline of 15,000 has more coastline than China or India showing how the Pacific ocean coastlines are of a magnitude higher. Japan's is similar to Australia stretching across the Pacific. Canada has the largest coastline in the world. ...

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This editorial Board opinion piece in the WSJ gives exceptional insights into major issues facing Germany, the cost of electricity generated from renewables, failure to meet climate change emissions targets set by the government, and the difficulty of forming a new coalition government with conflicting goals of the Greens vs the CDU and the FDP.  By one estimate it cost households and business about $125 billion extra in higher electricity bills for 2000-2015 to subsidize renewable energy from solar and wind. Utilities are required to buy renewable at above market rates, especially since the energy revolution called Energiewende was launched by chancellor Merkel in 2010. German electricity prices are about 36 cents per kilowatt hour compared to 13 cents in America. The 2011 decision following the Fukushima disaster to phase out nuclear power by 2022 made the effort to meet renewables targets of 40% by 2020 compared to 1990 -exceeding the 20% for the EU- even harder. Germany sees a 30% target for 2020 as reachable.   Even though renewables can generate 50% of required energy supplies, only 30% of the supplies are utilized as the renewables are generated mostly in the north of the country and there is a lack of transmission lines to bring it to the industrial south. The dirty secret says the WSJ editorial board for the renewable story in Germany is that a lot of coal is used in dirty coal plants to meet electricity needs when wind and solar energy are not available. Cheaper coal not natural gas is preferred for such generation as daytime peak use that recoups more expensive gas cost is managed with renewables. Leading to the situation that Germany generates only 9% of energy from natural gas compared to 30% in the U.S.. The further Germany has gone in renewables has also led to the paradox of increased dependence on coal. Getting to the new Jamaica coalition being planned between the CDU and the FDP and the Greens. The problem is that the Greens want to see the 20 most polluting coal plants closed, the CDU and the FDP are willing to close only ten coal polluting plants. The WSJ's opinion is that voters chose the AfD right wing party with 13% of the vote because of the platform promise to shut down Merkel's Energiewende policy.   ...

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The question whether the source of the coronavirus that led to deaths of more than 1 million Americans is a lab leak at a Wuhan lab in China is still being checked. The Energy Department says that with  "low confidence" it emerged from a lab leak at Wuhan, China. Earlier in 2021 the FBI stated that it was the result of a lab leak not a natural transmission. The Energy Department runs many labs doing research in the field. Petroleum exports supported the allied war effort in two world wars says this report in the WSJ. Europe is shunning Russian oil after its invasion of Ukraine.

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Warming of oceans by climate change cause US hurricanes Helene and Milton 2024. Ocean heat content in the Gulf of Mexico is much higher in October 2024 than the average heat content 2013-2023, as shown in this NYT chart. At a single glance one can see climate change at work. This is real America. And FEMA is stretched thin, not adequately funded for the natural disasters happening all over the US, yet Congress has failed to act, and the AI billionaires shown in today's NYT piece "Imperial Reach," talk about trillions of dollars they wish to divert from essential needs of the Nation in climate change action, disaster relief, childcare, health, and education, more than the GDP of European nations. In effect writing off the Nation's future and future generations.  

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As large companies such as BP and Shell sell off oil and coal projects, smaller competitors in the energy field are buying these projects with the idea that the transition from coal and oil will take longer. The smaller energy companies bet that coal and oil will be the main source for energy for developing countries in Asia and Africa and that the underinvestment by the large companies will boost commodity prices. Numbers support their thinking as coal, oil and natural gas are expected to be source of 76% of global energy consumption in 2030. In 2019 this was 81%, according to the International Energy Agency. Because of the rising demand it means using even more carbon intensive energy.  India is making big strides in renewable solar yet the energy demand in the future will also jump further as India modernizes its economy. The trend is all in the direction of renewables yet the time it takes will depend on demand and the cost reduction of renewables with new technologies. ...