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In his plain talk on Syria Trump said the primary message to Russia was: "You should have peace in Syria; its enough." This is the message foreign minister Tillerson is delivering in Moscow. He described the Russian support for the Syrian government as: "I think it's very bad for Russia, I think it's very bad for mankind, it's very bad for this world." He also described Chinese president Xi Jinping's response at a state dinner during dessert when Trump told him about the U.S. missile attack on Syrian airfield, as expressing the sentiment that it was OK considering the chemical attacks by the Syrian government on civilians and children. The closest any president gets to the plain talk given by Trump is during the period of the Cold War when Truman also had this kind of plain talking style to deliver the message that needed to be heard.

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A new dynamic is taking hold in U.S.-Saudi relations as U.S. interests for improving U.S.- Iran relations and tackling the nuclear proliferation issue, differing perceptions about democracy in Egypt and Bahrain, create distance between the two countries. The emergence of abundant shale oil in the U.S. and Canada and other parts of the world is reducing U.S. dependence on the Saudis for oil, and creates a sense among ordinary Saudis that the U.S. will abandon the special relationship with Saudi Arabia. The Saudis see their role as supporting fellow Sunnis in the struggle in Syria. The Obama administration has not taken any steps to support the Syrian people's struggle against the Assad regime and allowed the refugee crisis to develop to huge proportions with over 2.5 million people mostly Sunnis becoming refugees in border camps. The numbers are estimated to grow to 5 million if nothing is done according to UN estimate. Shiite Iran's support of the Assad regime has increased Sunni- Shiite discord in the Middle East. ...

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The new Rapid Response Force with a spearhead of 5000 troops deployable in 48 hours is intended to counter Russia's new aggressive position in Eastern Europe. Command centers will be established in the Baltic states Lithuania, Estonia, Lativia, and in Poland. Romania, Bulgaria. Leadership will rotate for this force between Spain in 2016, Britain in 2017, followed by Italy, France and Poland. Germany currently leads a temporary version of the new force. It is designed to give each nation time to prepare for further action. Within weeks an additional 25,000 troops could be deployed alongside the 5000 troops. U.S. Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove, is NATO's top military commander. He says the U.S. will have officers in each of the 6 command centers, and in larger bases located in Poland and Romania. The U.S. will provide support for surveillance, intelligence, logistics and airlifts. Retiring Defense Secretary Hagel had called for the Rapid Deployment Force to be ready for action in the Middle East or in Eastern Europe....

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The devaluation of the Argentine peso from 9.8 to the dollar to 13 to the dollar in Dec. 2015 by president Macri is leading to higher inflation hurting the working class. The cutting of export taxes is helping farmers. Removing most currency controls is designed to help increase foreign investment by letting foreign companies freely repatriate profits. Also expected to be removed are bureaucratic procedures that limit imports of new equipment for manufacturers. Middle class voters see the moves helping the economy in the long run with new foreign investment and changing the outlook for investment. A former central bank president Mario Blejer points out that after 12 years of the previous Kirchner administration Argentina needs investment- by improving the outlook for investment and removing import controls the government plans to stimulate investment to lead to economic growth. Inflation is up 25% and Macri is keeping Mrs. Kirchner's price control programs in place to prevent a surge in inflation beyond the impact of the devaluation. ...

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Fighting escalates on the Syria- Turkey border in 2016 as U.S. Special Forces support Syrian rebels with the help of Turkish artillery to take border areas from Islamic State. Turkey was not willing to support Kurdish rebels in the fight against ISIS, leading to the shift to support Syrian rebels with the help of U.S. airstrikes. The result is a new flow of refugees to Turkey. The Turkish government created a zone on the Syrian side of the border for new refugees and called on the U.S. to create a safe zone.

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Hubbard and Erdbrink report on U.S. president Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia to begin a new chapter in relations with the Gulf nations and the Saudis. Under president Obama the U.S. distanced itself from the Saudis and the Gulf nations, preferring to pursue a policy of closer relations with Iran and signing the Iran nuclear deal. This included a policy of staying out of Syria to the point of turning down a decision to deploy U.S. airpower to maintain no-fly zones to protect refugees. Syrian government forces fighting rebels were supported by Iran. The new policy is dictated by the new conditions in the Middle East. The U.S. has sought since the presidency of Reagan to balance the power relations in the region. With the nuclear deal signed and Iran respecting the deal according to independent reports, the U.S. allied with Iran in the battle against Islamic State in Iraq,  a shift was needed to balance the support provided to Iran by Russia which worsened the refugee crisis in Syria. The Republican party and Mr. Trump were critical of the Obama Iran policy during the nuclear deal negotiations. The safety of Israel is also a factor as non-state actors were supported by Iran threatening Israeli security. For these reasons the shift is an effort to rebalance the relations in the region. The arms deal in its size and president Trump's statement that Iran had "fueled the fires of sectarian conflict and terror," can be seen as this rebalancing. A business aspect of the large arms deal is that it will promote job growth in the defense industry in the U.S.. Other countries including Germany have seen growth in their defense industry. This is not the best way forward for the Middle East, yet it is a way the U.S. and nations in the region are adjusting to realities- the collapse of the Arab Spring from within and without the help from outside, the sectarian conflict arising from the Shiite pushback from Iran following the Baathist and Sunni control of Iraq which collapsed with the U.S.invasion, where the majority of people are Shiite yet with a strong Sunni presence. Elections brought Shiites in power, leading to a Sunni response in the form of Islami State caliphate move into Mosul, Iraq's second largest city after Baghdad. A decade of conflict and the efforts by the Bush administration ended in failure and sectarian conflict, resulting in the U.S. policy of rebalancing in favor of Iran to negotiate the nuclear deal. In this sense the arms deal does not solve anything. A similar rebalancing under Reagan by arming one side, followed by arming the other, led to involvement with ground forces under president Bush. It only leaves the region poor after years of sanctions against Iran to the point where a NYT reporter was not sure whether it was safe to fly from Tehran to Mashad with Iran Air because of the lack of spare parts for the airline. War torn, with millions of refugees in Syria and Iraq, the region remains broken in many ways, waiting for a sensible non sectarian view to prevail in the interest of the people in the region. The election of Rouhani in Iran by 57% of the vote is only a sign that young people in the region given a chance would opt for a different course in future. The rest of Asia has moved forward and shows a path that can be followed. ...

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Pultizer prize winning journalist for reporting on the Middle East, Karen Elliott House, reports on Saudi Arabia and Middle East following the Arab Spring and the changes in the Middle East. A vast demographic of young people is stuck in the region facing an impasse of poor leaders, internal divisions, and lack of jobs or economic opportunity, following a failed Arab Spring. Their aspirations for a better life on hold.

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Saudi Arabia continued to follow a policy of high oil production in 2016, and reported that it produced 10.67 million barrels a day in July 2016. Iran is producing at a pre-sanction level of 4 million barrels a day. 2017 oil demand prediction by OPEC is at growth of 1.15 million barrels a day. Experts says that the interests of Iran and the Saudis may be converging to reduce production as they face low oil prices. Iran needs to make large investments and Saudis face budget cuts with low oil prices. They point to this cooperation being temporary as there are issues of competing politics in the region, and beyond that both countries seek to expand their market share.

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Efforts by King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia to mediate differences between Qatar, which supports the Muslim Brotherhood, and Egypt's military government under Sissi, as the security threats in the region intensify. At the Gulf Cooperation Council meetings an effort to reduce differences between the Saudis and U.A.E. with Qatar, as the Middle East fragments bringing conflict to Libya and Iraq, in addition to Syria. Islamic State now threatens Saudi Arabia. The U.S. operates its main command center from Doha, Qatar. Iran supports the U.S. and Iraq under the Abadi government as it works to reduces sectarian Sunni-Shiite tensions and push back Islamic State. The Saudis and Iran now find themselves on the same side and see the need to reduce Shiite-Sunni tensions to restore peace to the region. This is the new background to the efforts to heal regional tensions in 2014-2015, as a reluctant Obama administration takes up American responsibility to restore peace to the region and avoid fragmentation....

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Mark Landler describes the situation on the Syria-Turkey border and Turkey's position. On the same day U.S. Senate leaders McCain and Graham pointed to the contradictions in U.S. president Obama's policies in Syria and Iraq leading to the serious problems in the Middle East. Turkey says the U.S. needs to resolve the contradictions before it can actively commit its forces especially asking the U.S. to establish a no-fly zone in Syria.