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Polls on Deutchland opinion trends show Merkel has gained support with her careful handling of Brexit, and the AfD has lost support. Only a month ago media reports covering the immigration issues had put AfD in the light of gaining using this issue. The infighting in the Conservative Party and the lack of any plans of ministers in the British government favoring Brexit for leaving the EU have Germans questioning this kind of politics compared to Merkel's promise of a "calm and composed manner" in dealing with issues of people's lives and the future of Europe. The extensive coverage in Germany of the vote for Brexit, the EU referendum in Britain, increased awareness in Germany of the benefits of the European Union. Merkel and other leaders offered their assessment of how the European Union has brought peace to Europe and improved the lives of the people during the pre Brexit media coverage. Now Infratest Dimap polls show the popularity of Merkel has increased to 59%. Compared to a June poll before Brexit things look better for Merkel-  the AfD Alternative for Germany has lost 3 percent of support dropping to 12 percent, the Christian Democrat party of Merkel is up by 2 percentage points to 34 percent in popular support, the Social Democrats also increasing support by 1 percent to 22 percent.The vast majority of people said the European Union provides security (74 percent) and prosperity (79 percent). Germans are skeptical about the value of referendums on such major decisions as EU membership because of swings in popular opinion such as that on immigration that swayed British voters- 49 percent saying parliament does better in these situations than a referendum, 42% saying referendums are better. For voters who said Germany was hindered by membership only 11% supported that proposition and 52% said the EU is beneficial for Germany. Over 75% actually favor more cooperation on refugees, data policies and energy, setting the prospect for a stronger European Union. Also proving the importance of responsible politics, and honest, flexible leadership, responding to people's concerns yet not pandering to swings in opinion for temporary advantage. A separate piece in the Guardian by Yonge points out that Cameron actually won only 23 percent of the eligible voters for Conservatives in the 2015 elections in Britain, reflecting a two decade slide. Brexit only made this failure widely visible, and did not escape the attention of the German people.   ...

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Chancellor Scholz's visit to India with the heads of 12 large German companies and heads of medium size company business associations will lead to increasing economic cooperation between Germany and India. Bilateral trade is about 25 billion dollars. German companies such as Siemens are suppliers of rail locomotives for modernization of India's rail network. Topics for talks include the geopolitical situation in Europe with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, cooperation on climate change, utilization of German technologies, and increasing investment by German companies in India's economy.

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NYT Graphs showing Effect of 17.2% overall US Tariffs positive on US Trade Deficit (significant shrinking) Prices (less than 3% increase in index). Overall effect is surprisingly quite positive, yet media has given misleading reports and misrepresented tariffs. Tariffs were used when everything else failed and had to be applied in the real world with skill, and backtracking where necessary, repositioning tariff, and continuing to use it when the opposite side including European, Japanese, Koreans, Taiwanese, were only interested in their own gains, indifferent or negative to fairness for US gains. Even where the tariff was placed on a partner the results were surprising the carving out of exemptions such as electronics semiconductors and iphones, made it possible for India to increase exports, so that it was done thoughtfully. This shows that tariff application was done by DJT/Bessent/Jamieson in a way that gave countries options to manage their trade to come out doing well. Germany and EU without US tariffs may not have signed the deal with India this quickly, and India may have used its agricultural protection to prolong and not look for areas in common and work out a deal. Germany might still be thinking India depends too much on Russia for defense, instead it looked for areas for defense cooperation. Result the huge India- German, India-European Union deal that connects to form a 2 billion strong market. Nobody really noticed its importance except for 2 billion people- it comes when it is a highly motivated 2 billion people with strengths in technologies, industry, people skills, and between 2 civilizations the Buddhist/Vedanta Hindu and the Christian civilization, each discovering the other and the richness of its partner's civilization. ...

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Common sense comes to the German Border with Merz and the national emergency rule at the border, just as has happened under DJT at the US Border. May 8-25 turned back at Germany's borders with 9 European countries about 100 persons- success of national emergency rule at the German Border. This relieves not only pressure on public services in German towns and cities, it also removes a source of anxiety in the people who experienced political divisions and random attacks in public spaces from migrants. It also removes the threats of extreme factions in politics that have used the migrant crisis for exacerbating political divisions. Merkel's policy was not workable from the beginning and based on assumptions that were not correct as Germany and the EU could do more to improve the modernization and improving health and education, industry and agriculture inside Asia, North Africa to help the people in these regions than by taking in migrants. Who has ever suggested migration to Europe or the US  as a solution to the problems of China and India in the 1930's and 1940's, from wars and even famines. The right solutions of decolonization turning back invasions into the 1940's, and providing technology and capital for modernization after 1950 and accelerating this after 2000 have created two modernized nations of 2 billion people. ...

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Germany is turning nationalistic in its approach to the debt crisis in Greece. This comes as Germans consider economic successes as Germany's, and failures in Europe, as the problems not of a united Europe but of these individual countries. The largest circulation German newspaper, Bild, suggested Greece sell the Acropolis to payoff creditors in the bond markets, and putting a estimate of $140 billion for this monument. A senior member of Merkel's party suggesting Greece sell off some of the Aegean islands. And a Bild poll showing a majority of Germans favor expelling Greece from the euro. There is not sufficient acknowledgement by German public opinion of the value to Germany of the export markets in Europe and the part they played in Germany's economic success.

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These scathing remarks by Rob Mudge of DW.com about Angela Merkel as bringing change or modernization to Germay come as Germany votes on Sunday. He says of Merkel's CDU that its core base is over 65 years voters. Mudge says CDU should modernize itself first before attempting to modernize Germany as it says in its slogans around Germany. He says the constant eulogizing of Merkel in the media is pointless. CDU party he says is mired in Merkel's sedate weiter so (keep it up) politics. Most of CDU is staid and unadventurous at a time when Germany needs to move forward with new ideas and invest in its future. He faults the CDU, both Merkel and Laschet, with spreading meaningless fear mongering about the SPD and Greens, at a time when the SPD vice chancellor has devised most of the anti covid economic packages for Germany and the European Union. Social Democrats Olaf Scholz, as vice chancellor, brings the very stability Germans look for, with the efforts for modernization and bringing together all sections of society Germany desperately needs today. Annalena Baerbock of the Greens party brings youthful energy with a new openness to invest in Germany and the people of Germany. ...

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Though the German public opposes a "transfer union," bailouts of EU countries, and fear a weakening of the euro, there is also support for the European Union. Most of Germany's political leaders and business elite see the euro as good for Germany. And nearly two thirds of Germans agree that Germany can only prosper inside a strong EU, according to the ARD poll. Yet the same proportion of Germans oppose bailouts of troubled countries such as Greece. This suggests that the way forward will have to be the development of mechanisms that ensure fiscal discipline throughout the EU to back up the euro currrency, and agreement on enforceable sanctions.

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Even though U.S. president Trump has singled out countries such as Mexico, South Korea and China for trade practices, the U.S. today faces stronger competition in trade from Germany. The trade surplus with Germany for 2016 was $297 billion for Germany compared to $245 billion for China, according to Ifo economic institute. China's trade surplus according to the World Bank was down from 10% of gross domestic product or GDP in 2007 to 3% in 2016, while Germany's has gone up to 8.5%. The Chinese currency is seen as not being undervalued by some experts, while the euro has lost a quarter of its value in the last 3 years, giving Geman exporters an edge. The U.S. also competes with Germany in nine of the 10 export categories such as machinery and electronic equipment, according to the Peterson Institute. Then why is the focus under U.S. president Trump not including Germany? One reason is that China's products have put a downward pressure on U.S. manufacturing wages, and the the speed with the Chinese manufacturing has grown in certain industries. Germany has very few of the manufacturing subsidies that China provides to its industries. And the depreciation in the euro is not favored by the German government as it opposes the policies of the European Central Bank. Germany also has a higher propensity to save about 10% of GDP compared to about 3% for the U.S., according to OECD. As a result Germany is accumulating foreign assets at a faster rate than any other nation, while the U.S. is borrowing capital from overseas. Ways to change this are minimum wage regulations introduced by the government, but larger measures such as increasing government investment in the economy are not supported as the country prepares for the future with an aging population.   ...

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Katherina Reiche as Economy Minister and Karsten Wildberger as Minister of Digital Affairs are two new appointments from the private sector of new German chancellor Merz. Reiche is faced with coming up with a solution to the high energy cost facing German industry.

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Anthony Faiola provides this exceptional look at the thinking of Chancellor Merkel and German experts, about the refugees creating more opportunities than risks for Germany. Germany is an aging society, with low birth rates. How to reverse this, so that there will be more young workers to meet future needs long term ten or twenty years from now, is a problem facing Japan and Germany. Germany is also fortunate with the timing, with Germany's unemployment rate at a low of 6.2%, and years of growth ahead from a eurozone recovery. A fortunate circumstance in the nature of refugees from Syria, is that many of them are young, well educated, skilled workers, doctors, engineers and architects, from a relatively moderate Arab country. This is a better immigrant pool than the one Germany took in from Turkey in early postwar years, in terms of education, youthfulness and skills, and one in which the lessons learned from that pool's inadequate integration could be applied here. This is why Germany is not only willing to take in 800,000, but German leaders are saying they could take in 500,000 a year for several years. Just as Germany has taken a long term view, and has the strength to execute it in its shift to renewable energy, Germany's centre right Christian Democrats and centre left Social Democrats in the coalition government see the issue long term around which they can bring a cohesive understanding and consensus in their country. Merkel addressing parliament said on September 9, 2015- "The refugees need help to learn German, and they should find a job quickly. Many of them will become new citizens of our country. If we do it well, this will bring more opportunities than risks." The decision to shift to renewable required a whole new mindset and leadership, in the same way German leaders are articulating the position based on a careful understanding of the situation and Germany's long term interests in reversing Germany's population decline and lower working age people. There are about 3 million Turkish people in the country, adding about 1.8 million Syrian and other refugees would still bring the percentage of people of foreign origin to less than 6% of the 81 million population, just a little bit less Christian and just a little bit less German in origin, which is in keeping with changes in a globalized world and no different than its neigbor France. What looked like a problem, if handled and managed well could be an opportunity knocking at Germany's door. Merkel's genuine convictions about universal civil rights make the "wilkommen refugees" very real in other ways....

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An exceptional account by Melissa Eddy of how Germans are reacting to the German government's underinvestment in childcare centers. Germany's cabinet approved a bill that provides $190 monthly child care allowance for mothers who opt not to use day care centers provided by the government. This is supported by the Bavarian party, Christian Social Union, on the grounds that it gives an alternative to mothers to use private day care or nanny care. In practice many of the mothers using the allowance are expected to be lower paid workers who may decide not to work. The government has budgeted $500 million for the allowance for 2013. This is opposed by all opposition parties , and in a rare show of unity by business employer associations and unions, both say it "creates a false incentive to quit work." Axel Plunnecke of the Cologne Institute for Economic Research, says studies show low income families are among those who benefit most from early childhood education. About 100,000 lower qualified and lower paid workers could see this as attractive and quit working. The western part of Germany lacks enough child day care slots, so this is seen as not investing enough where its most needed, and Germany lags behind other countries like France in day care centers. The government is investing $15 million over five years to expand the number of child care centers. The goal is to have 750,000 child care slots by 2013, according to Ms. Kristina Schroeder, the family minister, herself a mother giving birth while in office. The measure was vigorously debated and controversial from the beginning because most many Germans see the $15 million years over 5 years as underinvestment in vital educational infrastructure. The $500 million is better invested in building modern day care facilities, they believe, especially because the children from lower income mothers not benefitting from daycare facilities will still need educational help, and German industry needs more women in the labor force to be competitive. Five years ago under reforms of parental support the 3 years of help to mothers was reduced to 1 year, resulting in an increase in the numbers of women working from 32% in 2002 to 40% by 2011, according to the Ministry of Family Affairs, Senior Citizens, Women and Youth....

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Life for ordinary people in the GDR meant living in a communist state but for ordinary people it also had its good points, as shown in this report on the German Democratic Republic that lasted from 1949 to 1990. Female participation in the workforce was 90%. It was the most developed state in the bloc of countries led by the Soviet Union. Ownership of fridges or refrigerators was twice that of the western nations. Till 1989 the East German state known as GDR was accepted as a socialist workers state even by people in West Germany called the Federal Republic. Its collapse so quickly was not expected and was a result of a chain of events in which eventually no one was in control- a totally spontaneous collapse of a socialist state. For east Germans 33 years later it is still a difficult event to grasp as the collapse of the socialist state led to most of the young population moving to western germany leaving behind an aging population without the economic security for workers that prevailed in the former GDR socialist state. As a result even after billions were spent on integration east Germany never adapted to the change, and still feels separate from the rest of Germany, and people feel looked down upon. ...

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Germany holds the presidency of the G-20 in 2017. This provides chancellor Merkel an opportunity to provide German leadership on many issues. The ministerial conferences will lead to the summit in Hamburg in July 2017. Concern about the incoming Trump administration views on trade in international circles gives Germany and China a larger role in the meetings for 2017. Germany plans to put more focus on the real causes of migration and flight from poor countries and war zones.

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ECB study put out in April 2013 shows household wealth and income in eurozone countries based on 2009-2010 data for 60,000 households throughout the eurozone. The household wealth in southern European countries is higher than that in Germany. The study shows why ordinary Germans oppose bailouts for banks, Greece, and eurozone countries that experienced a boom in the 2000-2010 period, a period in which German workers took small pay raises to improve German competitiveness. Germans also see Portugal and Ireland in a different light compared to Greece, Cyprus, Italy and Spain where real estate speculation, lax accounting, tax evasion and favored treatment of certain groups, has created or aggravated the debt problems. Wealth is defined as total assets, including real estate, vehicles, bank deposits, investments and pensions, minus liabilities for mortgages, credit card debt and loans. By this measure German households had an average of 200,000 euros in wealth, and lower than this in Finland and Netherlands. At the median or midpoint German households had 50,000 euros, the lowest in the eurozone, for Greece the median was 102,000 euros. The impact of home ownership is significant in the report, as home ownership is lower in Germany than in Southern European countries, and mortgage interest is not considered favorably in German tax laws. The decline in value of homes after 2010 is also not reflected. Another indicator for comparitive wellbeing is income, and this is shown in figures released in March 2013 from the European Statistics Agency for GDP per capita. For Germany per capita GDP was 29,000 euros in 2010. The average GDP per capita for the eurozone is about 24,000 euros. By this measure Greece is at 21,000 euros, 24,000 euros for Italy and for Spain. Germany being 18-19% above Spain and Italy. If Germans, Dutch, Finns and Austrians are less well off then the argument favors having the banks, creditors, and including depositors, in a burdensharing arrangement for bailout of troubled eurozone economies. ...

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Alexander Kudascheff of DW.com, says the Berlin Christmas market attack on the Kurfstendamm, is likely to change the way Germany looks at the terrorist threats in the world. Smaller attacks had hit Germany earlier in 2016. This one resembling the attack in Nice on Bastille Day is likely to touch a nerve with Germans who did not see something like this possible for a Christmas tradition of Christmas markets in Germany, and right in Berlin's centre.  This means stormy waters for chancellor Merkel's refugee policies. The comments to this opinion in the DW.com show the public dissatisfaction with current policy. Many of the comments focus on too open an approach of liberal media, what is perceived as a spin on stories for refugees, and on the use of words "suspected terrrorist attack" even when it had become clear to most people that it was a terrorist incident. In other ways this incident is different as it puts Germans in the same situation as Americans, Spaniards, Turks, French, and other people in the way terrorism has made people less safe or unsafe in 2015-2016. Most of this is a result of the situation in Syria and Iraq, as is the refugee situation that has divided European opinion, and American opinion.  ...

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Merz and Meloni sign economic and defense agreements for Germany and Italy, Jan 2026.

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Olaf Scolz, Germany's Vice Chancellor and Minister of Finance, since 2018. He  wants to counter the myth that individual success is always self-made. As candidate for the Social Democrats he is the leading candidate to succeed Merkel. Scolz believes in genuine "respect." If elected chancellor he will take Germany in a new direction after the Merkel years marked by neglect of infrastructure, increased division among Germans and fragmentation of parties, addressing euro currency issues left behind by her mentor CDU chancellor Helmut Kohl, poor migrant policy that divided German opinion, lack of social mobility for working class Germans, and failing families in childcare, other services.  Biden in the US, Scolz in the European Union, could offer an opportunity for combining the strength of Europe and the US in tackling the problems the world faces today- restructuring supply chains, reducing divisions sown through neglect of families and the working class, climate change, competing with an assertive China using western technology and resources. ...

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Syrian refugees number 1 million in Germany and Austria. In Turkey 3.5 million, in Lebanon 800,000, Jordan 600,000. 6-7 million Syrian refugees all over the world. The figures are large for displaced people and refugees worldwide. About 60 million displaced, over 30 million refugees and about 6 million asylum seekers. (UNHCR figures). Some are in transit as one report in The Times shows 800,000 entered Greece in 2015. It was at the time of the financial crisis in Greece and other countries, putting a great strain on resources. Even as illegal migration is criticized in many European countries, the fact that Europeans have given refuge to so many at risk of strain in their social systems is also something the says a lot about the goodwill and resilience in European societies after two world wars. A similar show of sentiment is appropriate from these countries in the Middle East and Africa, from the diaspora, and needs to be translated into action by looking at better models of managing the economies and government of these nations so that mistakes of the past are not repeated and there is a place for all. ...

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Germany's increased borrowing and tax breaks for business to increase growth- Germany's version of DJT's US Tax Cuts Bill.

Chancellor Merz and Finance Minister Klingbeil of the two main parties CDU and SPD have put forward this bill to increase growth and productivity, with increased investment from business and government. The debt brake in the German constitution was taken out for increased borrowing.

Merz told the German parliament-

“None of us is doing this lightly. We know that this will place a considerable burden on future budgets, including interest obligations in future budgets. But the alternative — doing nothing, not enabling investment, especially from the private sector in Germany — is not a better option.”

Germany like the US is taking an approach of investing for growth to chart a new future.

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This article in the NYT after German chancellor Merkel's visit to the U.S. reminds readers that Merkel's relationship with Obama took some time to develop and that following Merkel's turning down of Obama's request to speak at the Brandenburg Gate in 2008 relations during a Merkel visit in 2009 were not as friendly. It says the relationships evolve over time. Even then the relationship between Merkel and Obama had ups and downs including the period when it was revealed that the Obama administration had tapped Merkel's phone and Obama failed to offer an apology, ending with a positive note in 2016 when the two met in Krun, Germany, with Obama as lameduck president. Experts from the German Council of Foreign Relations say that Trump adopted his usual double speak saying the right things about NATO and relations with Germany in the joint appearance, and later at a question and answer session saying Germany owed a lot of money to the U.S. for defense. Germany pays 1.2% of GDP for defense and promised to take this up to 2% by 2024. By now viewers may have adjusted to Trump's style to keep certain issues alive for negotiation stance, as a distraction, to keep his base's enthusiasm, or in some situations to vent out grievances such as with media coverage he receives. ...

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In extended diplomacy Carney visits Beijing, China and says middle powers are seeking ways to interact and trade in a world of big power rivalry. His visit is followed by visits by UK's Starmer and Germany's Merz, and preceded by Macron. At the same time Merz visits Ahmedabad for a kite festival and signs a new trade agreement with India, followed by Leyen and Costa of the EU who sign a EU-India trade agreement for 27 countries of the European Union. All this suggests carefully planned effort in Europe to create new channels of trade and reorient existing trade relationships that will be more resilient with the US shifting to focus on Monroe Doctrine idea of the Western hemisphere as its region of influence and security. This report shows pictures of Starmer and Xi meeting at the Plough Pub in UK in 2015 and reflects on how this has changed 11 years later with China now  a dominant power with the world's 3rd largest economy and a third of world's manufacturing and logistics. How does this change the relationship with China in 2026 for UK and Canada, and the EU? At the same time Germany-India and EU-India relationship creates a 2 billion people market with capital, technology and labor potential to create the largest potential driven economic group in the world, combining EU's 20 trillion to India's $4 trillion economy and mutually complementing, which has potential to rival the US at $30 trillion by 2030 as India grows rapidly in the new EU/Germany/India market and the EU gets a new boost with the complementarity of the two regions by 2035. This suggests that something new is happening and Germany after a lot of soul searching have hit on something we should see blossom by 2030 in the way China has grown since that picture with Cameron of Xi at the Plough Pub in UK. A problem China faces as it continues to push exports is that EU/ India and US will take in less exports and there is only so much it can put in Latin American and African market, UK/Canada market leading to industries with massive oversupply. Major economic redirection may result from the Merz/Leyen/Costa visit and firming up trade agreements with India if the EU, Germany and India have the determination to seize this opportunity in the 21st Century. As Leyen said it has the potential to create a stable world with values of the Bible, the Bhagavad Gita, and Mahajima Nikaya of the Buddha supporting the industrial states that emerged from the Industrial Revolutions. ...

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S&P 500 up 5% in 2025 by June 27 2025 recovering 20% form lows after tariffs. Scott Bessent had promised agreement in place by July this date will be extended  yet confidence has returned that the agreements will be put in place after German chancellor Merz met with DJT at the White House. With Germany leading the way the biggest of the agreements with EU could be put in place. Additional agreements would come with India and China, and Japan, South Korea.

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Merkel tells a Davos meeting in January 2011, that "the euro is much more than a currency, it is the embodiment of Europe today." The idea of the euro as needed for the political and economic integration of Europe is accepted. Merkel also says "that "solidarity and competitiveness are two sides of the same coin." Suggesting that the slower economies in Europe will have to remake their economies, just as East Germany did when it joined a reunified Germany. Mathias Dopfner, CEO of Axel Springer, says Merkel knows from personal experience the traumas faced by a bankrupt economy. At the time of reunification the deutsche mark would become the national currency, even though the value of the mark reflected productivity levels and the strength of the economy of the western part. East German businesses were priced out of the job market. About 14,000 businesses were shut down and 4 million jobs were lost in the first five years after formal reunification in 1990. Unemployment jumped to 20% in East Germany in 2005. After the fall of the Berlin Wall two million people of the 16 million living in the East moved west, most of them younger people. For West Germans there was a price also. Germany has raised 1.7 trillion euros through an income tax "solidarity surcharge" for modernizing East Germany. Volker Perthes, director of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, says Merkel knows what resistance and what dangers come with structural adjustment programs. And she has to sell the programs and insist on strict conditions for German aid to Portugal, Spain and Greece. After many years the project has paid off. The unemployment rate in the east is 11.7%, much closer to the 6.4% in the west than before, and the growth rate in the east is 2.7% compared to the 3.6% in the west. The antiquated industrial base in the east has been replaced with a solar power sector and new chemical engineering and microelectronics industries....