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Israeli public officials believe the poor socio-economic conditions and the need to keep foreign aid and investment will be deciding factor after presidential elections in Egypt, regardless of who wins. The Muslim Brotherhood candidate Morsi is also likely to keep the Israel-Egypt peace treaty for this reason, even though differences with Israel remain.

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Karabell points out that Egypt ranks 137 in the world in per capita income (behind Tonga) and a population in the top 20. Two thirds of the population is under 30 years of age. The young in Egypt have no future with high rates of unemployment and little of the industrial development that you see in other large developing countries such as China, India, and Brazil. The 30 year rule of Mubarak also stifled any opportunity for public participation in the political process. During that rule Mubarak consciously decided to not pursue rapid economic development, something China has done even though it has a lack of public participation in the political process. As a result Egypt simply fell behind while the rest of the developing world improved opportunities in education, incomes and job opportunities.

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The foreign policy establishment and the Obama administration is caught completely by surprise by the protests in Egypt against the 30 year rule of Mubarak. Secretary of State Clinton makes shifting statements on the protests. The WSJ editorial reminds the state department that support for democratic government worked in the Philippines and S. Korea. The Journal points to the state department realists who opposed President Bush's efforts to reach out to civil society groups inside Egypt. And refers to US Ambassador Frank Ricciardone's admiration for President Mubarak and his downplaying of US support to democracy for Egypt. The Wall Street Journal in this editorial concludes by saying it can't see how the US can walk away from supporting those who favor more pluralism in politics.

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MBZ Mohamed Bin Zayed's leadership in UAE, the exit from OPEC and recognition of Israel, that is changing the Middle East. India has close relations with UAE and there are 9 million Indians working in the Gulf region. MBZ and Saudi leader Salman were close until both leaders differed on oil prices. Saudis wanted to keep oil prices high to finance its ambitious projects which contrasted with the UAE interest in increasing production. Saudis have a less diversified economy whereas the UAE has tourism and finance as other business sectors. UAE has capacity to produce 5 million barrels a day, but is only allowed by OPEC to produce 3.5 million barrels a day. US president DJT says UAE's exit from OPEC should lead to lower oil prices. About 250,000 British nationals live in UAE and millions of Indians. Even though the Abu Dhabi and Dubai region of UAE is small it has a large population of 12 million with about 10 million expatriates from India. It is also amore advanced economy with the help of the British and India, and now Israel. Saudi population is about 35 million and Saudis were poised to recognize Israel in 2024-2025. Egypt, the largest Arab nation, has shifted policy to be part of a Middle East that seeks modernization and economic development after decades of war and has close relations with UAE, so does Morocco, another Arab country with close ties to Europe and India.    ...

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French colonial rule and suppression of independence protests at Setif, Algeria, 1945, which led to much of the Arab liberation writings that were to lead to 5 decades of wars in the region. Many of the coups in Iraq and Syria and in Egypt by military men were a result of this period of colonial rule in the Arab world in Iraq, Syria, and other Middle Eastern countries of the French and the British. The anti-colonial writings of this period had one bad aspect the fervor led to an uncritical acceptance of the idea that achieving political independence would be enough for better standards of living, education healthcare and infrastructure. Economic freedoms would require a very different approach from the political aspect. These wars destroyed much of the resources, wealth and human other potential in the Middle East leading to economic stagnation by 2026. Gulf kingdoms with small populations pursued grandiose schemes, with the rest of the Middle East stuck in poverty and lack of industrialization, lack of infrastructure development, sience and technological education, that happened in China and South Korea, and is happening now in India. Iraq and Syria, Lebanon are artificial states by the French and British colonial rulers out of the collapsed Arab part of the Ottoman Empire which with their mix of peoples from different Islamic sects are impossible to manage to this day, and the world (China, US, EU, India, Brazil, other nations) has other priorities of their own than getting sucked into these wars. ...

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Friedman visits the campaign office of Abdel Moneim Fotouh, a doctor running for president of Egypt. What he finds is a lively debate among Egyptians, new and many voices discussing the future of Egypt and a transition to democratic forms of government and economic progress. One newly elected member of parliament Hamzawy tells Friedman that Islamists from the Brotherhood have about two thirds of the seats, the liberals 20%. Moderates within the Islamists like Fotouh, who left the Brotherhood, form a separate faction inside the Brotherhood. There will be a need to transcend differences and work together. Egypt is still under the rule of the military, but many democratic voices are now present and a lively debate is on which will provide the impetus for real change and progress, if properly channelled.

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ElBaradei's father was a president of the Egyptian Bar Association. ElBaradei studied for his law degree and doctorate at New York University and was an adjunct professor of law at NYU. He joined the UN and wasn not the choice of the Egyptian government for the position of head of the UN Atomic Energy Agency. He was a compromise candidate supported by the US. As a young diplomat in the Egyptian Foreign Ministry he was part of the team that negotiated the Camp David Peace Accords with Israel. Because of his background, a nuanced understanding of ElBaradei is necessary to understand his criticism of the Obama administration's hesitant support of the protests, and his statements saying Egypt's foreign policy was a failure. For his role in the future ElBaradei says, all I want to do is share and deliver this country to catch up with the rest of the world." To understand what this means for a backward country like Egypt with a growing population of 80 million of mostly young people, which has failed to keep pace with economic progress in other parts of the world, see the article by Henando de Soto. Soto describes his effort working on a project for reforms in Egypt from 1997-2004 with the support of members of the Egyptian cabinet and the US Agency of Intenational Development, which were blocked in a cabinet shakeup by interests wanting to preserve the status quo. Failure to grasp this central fact that alone among large developing countries Egypt has failed to deliver on the rising expectations in the developing world, makes it impossible to understand Egypt. This is why De Soto describes the situation in Egypt as Egypt's Econmic Apartheid. In New York City enjoyed his time in Greenwich village, going to the opera and Knicks basketball games....

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The Muslim Brotherhood is thrust into a critical role as economic policymaker after winning the parliamentary elections in Egypt. The Muslim Brotherhood's foreign policy advisor, Essam El-Haddad, says it gave the IMF its tentative approval for a $3.2 billion loan to Egypt. Haddad says it was a very, very short time for the learning process to occur about the economic issues facing Egypt and the IMF. Foreign investment peaked in 2007 at $13.7 billion. It is now a small fraction of this and tourism earnings have declined to a third of what they were before. The Brotherhood cites the example of Turkey where the Islamist Justice and Development Party formed the government in 2002. At the time Turkish inflation was at 55%, the currency Turkish Lira had lost 51% of its value and GDP fell by 5.7%. Turkey has seen high economic growth in the last decade.

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The New York Times editorial on the violent military action against Morsi protest camps near Cairo University on August 14. NYT calls for cutting off the $1.3 billion in aid to Egypt. Baradei, Morsi, and the moderates are seen as complicit in letting the military take advantage of the split in the political parties through their failure to reach a compromise on constitutional and other issues. NYT calls it a foreign policy disaster for the U.S. and a tragedy for Egypt to return to military rule. U.S. president Obama is seen as having shown lack of leadership for both Egypt and Syria. The likely conclusion being that the low key approach has failed and the opportunity for a more peaceful Middle East focussed on improving the living conditions of the people in the region has been lost through inaction.

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The Israel perception of the protests for democracy in Egypt are different from that of other observers and the press in the US and other countries. They fear that the 1979 peace treaty with Egypt will not be honored, and they fear Islamist elements will co-opt the democracy movement as has happened elsewhere they say.

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Egypt's presidential candidate Mohammed Morsi, leads in the first round of presidential elections over Amr Moussa. He has no ties with the Mubarak regime and comes from the Muslim Brotherhood. Morsi is an engineer trained in Egypt and the U.S. Morsi graduated with bachelors and masters degree in engineering from Cairo University, and a PhD. from the University of Southern California in 1982. From 1982 to 1985, he was a professor at California State University at Northridge, California. In 1985 he returned to teach at a university in Egypt. He was elected to parliament as an independent candidate as the Mubark regime banned the Muslim Brotherhood. In 2011 he was elected head of the Freedom and Justice Party and made its candidate for president. Because of the severe economic problems facing Egypt- a demographic explosion of young people with few job opportunities, enough foreign reserves to finance a limited period of food and essential imports and dependent on the IMF for financing, neglected infrastructure development during decades of misrule under Mubarak- a candidate with an advanced engineering background trained in the U.S. could bring the right set of skills to the job of rebuilding Egypt. ...

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The 8000 megawatt $4.2 billion Nile dam in Ethiopia will be fully operational in 2020. It is the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa. Negotiations are taking place between Ethiopia and Egypt to ensure Egypt's supply of water from the Nile is not affected.

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Israel and Hamas agree to a pause in the fighting with a deal brokered by Qatar and Egypt. The top Middle East envoys of Biden and Trump were involved in the 96 hours of negotiations that preceded the deal.

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Watch key moments of King Charles Address to the US Congress April 28 2026. This is the most warmly and most embraced speech in the US Congress in decades. The last time a British monarch was in the US, and addressed the US Congress was Queen Elizabeth in the Suez crisis of 1956. Looking back the Suez crisis was precipitated by a Arab nationalist military officer taking over (nationalizing) the Suez Canal in Egypt from British and French control. As this was when the British and French Empires existed in Africa and Asia, and the US was for freeing people requiring breakup of these Empires.  It should be remembered American General Stilwell carried out this policy in China by fighting the Japanese Empire in China, and also India. America was never on the side of Empires as some would have us believe, and there is no better example of American spirit and generous heart than General Joe Stilwell in China for 1900-1950. Today Keir Starmer and Macron's move to represent the British and French as innocent bystanders is anything but, as the British and French created 50 years of wars in the Middle East by creating the artificial states of Lebanon, Syria and Iraq of Shia and Sunni people out of the defeated Ottoman Empire by 1921. King Charles was making the best of the bad situation in his speech as he supports US position of naval blockade to prevent Iran (or for that matter any place in the Middle East a powder keg of a region like the Balkans in 1914 that started WWI) from getting nuclear weapons. ...

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The Washington Post points out the damage to civil society and the rule of law in Egypt in 2014-2015.

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Hosni Mubarak and his two sons go on trial in Egypt. Mubarak faces charges of ordering the killing of protesters and corruption. This comes 6 months after his ouster.

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The Obama administration's failure to correctly grasp the situation and articulate a clear position on the democracy protests in Egypt, is raising many questions. On many of the events occurring about the transition, the administration was caught unawares. And its position gave a muddled message to the people of Egypt, not a clear statement of the US support for the democratic process. Senator John McCain said in an interview: "Every day that goes by, you have to ask: who profits from this? Its the Muslim Brotherhood and Islamic extremists. There's the perception that we're on the side of Mubarak."

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The Journal's editorial calls on the military in Egypt to help an orderly transition to representative government.

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Turkey is reviving its relations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Prince Bin Salman will visit Turkey as part of a remake of Turkey Saudi relations. Turkey's economic crisis has revived the relationship as Turkey badly needs aid for its economy. The pressure on emerging markets is increasing with US central bank raising rates reducing inflows of western money into Turkey even further. Prince Salman has already received visits from French and British leaders. He visited Jordan and Egypt this week and will now be in Ankara. In the summer he will visit Greece and Cyprus. Saudis are modernizing their economy changing culture in relationships of men and women, in women's rights and education, and broadening relationships with the world under Salman. There is an astonishing openness to science and technology in a drive to be modern. The old Saudi monarchy and conservative rule with ancient traditions is giving way to what the Saudis in the group under Salman see as the modernization of Europe and America in the 20th century using science and technology as what they would like to see in their own country. There is also a drive to think independently from the dogmatic positions of the past that have turned the Kingdom into an American dependency with no obligation or incentive to modernize its culture and be open to the world outside.  The US fought a war to ostensibly modernize a backward mountainous remote state as Afghanistan, while being perfectly comfortable with the old Saudi monarchies of the past that made little change in the ancient culture and tradition and in women's rights and education. Such were the contradictions in American policy and the failure to think anew. As president Lincoln said "as our case is new we must think anew, and act anew." President Biden will now visit Saudi Arabia to build a new relationship with an independent nation, which along with the UAE is bringing change to the Middle East through infrastructure development and modernization. Salman's modernization comes as the kingdom also faced a need to make a transition out of dependence on fossil fuels. Salman sees trips to Greece and Turkey as opening up to all sides. Saudis have good relations with Israel and Egypt another part of this openness. The US senses this, India has sensed this. India's Modi government  made sending the Oxford vaccines manufactured in India to Saudis a priority during 2021. The Indian example is also changing the way the UAE and Saudis see infrastructure development and modernization in the region. This is also changing the way the region is looking at itself. For decades Egypt lacking the resources to build infrastructure on its own has languished economically. A helping hand from the Saudis is changing Egypt. The entire rail system is being modernized with the latest technology from Siemens. The Saudis have stabilized the Egyptian economy with a $5 billion deposit in the Central Bank of Egypt. On June 21 Egypt and Saudis signed $7.7 billion in investment deals for infrastructure, logistics, port administration, food, industry, medicine, energy and technology. In the investments in Egypt some of the oil money going to Saudis with $100 per barrel oil price is going to an economy in Egypt that can easily absorb and make good use of the investment to modernize.   The influence of Saudi leverage in fossil fuels which drove the US relationship with Saudis since FDR is being replaced with an independent Saudi kingdom making decisions to modernize across the board in all aspects compared to one that favored a few American companies such as Exxon Mobil and ARAMCO or arms makers such as Boeing and Lockheed that helped recycle American money going to pay for Saudi fossil fuels back to America.    ...

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This graphic shows the increase of interest rates by central banks around the world to cope with inflation and risks to the economy. Sri Lanka, Ukraine, Russia, Egypt, Argentina have large increase in rates. The US increased rates by 0.75% this week.