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A Pew Research Center poll before April elections shows 70% of Indians dissatisfied with conditions in the country. 63% of those polled say they prefer the opposition BJP party to lead the next government, compared to 19% for the ruling Congress party. More significant was the favorable view of Narendra Modi by 78% of those polled, with only 16% holding an unfavorable view of Modi, the chief minister of the state of Gujarat which has seen fast growth rates. The Congress party has been hurt by a series of corruption scandals, weak leadership and poor management of the economy as growth slowed in 2012-2013.

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French 2025 Bayrou budget compromise deficit of 5.4% target is a fragile one. Le Monde says PM Bayrou is dependent on the goodwill of his opponents the RN National Rally and the Partie Socialiste PS. Cutting the budget slightly is not popular with RN or PS and it remains a compromise to avoid the worst of not passing the budget for 2025, a responsibility the public places on all politicians and parties. As in Germany France with fragile coalitions and lack of clear voter support for one program, is not able to invest in its economy as Biden and Trump have done in the US, slowing growth in the European Union.

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All sectors of the U.S. economy see an increase in hiring, including retail, transportation, healthcare and manufacturing, as the economy adds 288,000 jobs in June, according to the Labor Department. Manufacturing added 16,000 jobs, transportation 17,000 and the public sector increased jobs by 26,000. Hiring also picked up for high school graduates compared to the poor record in 2013. In 2013 one Barclays economist says the jobs for high school graduates at this point were declining by 16,000 a month on yearly basis. He says employers are now adding 29,000 jobs for high school graduates a month in 2014. The unemployment for high school graduates declined to 5.8% in June 2014, for persons with some college education or an associate degree 5.0%, for college graduates 3.3%. Barclay's estimate is that the U.S. added an average of 231,000 jobs a month for the first half of 2014. The inflation rate remains at about 2%, giving the U.S. Fed more flexibility in setting rates to support jobs growth. The lower unemployment rate of 6.1% understates the underemployment, as a more accurate measure of employment which includes people working part time because they cannot find jobs is at 12.1%. The proportion of Americans in the labor force is also at a 36 year low of 62.8%. These two indicators for unemployment, unemployment including people working parttime, and the proportion of Americans in the labor force, combined with inflation, are the main indicators Fed chairmam Yellen is looking at....

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This report in the WSJ makes the America centric thinking mistake of forgetting where China started from in assessing progress and China's new priorities. In 1960 the World Bank shows China per capita at $90 which does not change much till 1990 when it was $300, the Deng opening to western technology and capital pushed it up to $3000 the year 2000 (US $36,000) and $4500 in 2010 (US $50,000) when the global financial crisis hit. Since 2010 the Chinese economy was burdened by high local government debt and struggled to get to $10,000 in 2020 under Xi Jinping's first two terms as president. Yet it paid a huge price for this -the chance of Bo Xilai (2014) upsetting the twin banners of Science and Modernization of the May 4th 1919 movement that set the course of China for 100 years uninterrupted through the Nationalists, the Japanese occupation, the Maoist CCP, the Deng CCP opening and Jinping CCP pullback. The huge inequality was seen as an opportunity for Bo Xi Lai or some other leader to capitalize on moving China in an unknown direction that posed risks for the future of China. Even then the first preference of Xi would be to carry on with what had worked after Deng. Yet it was clear that working class votes were shifting the dynamics of elections after the Trump election and closing the doors to open access to western capital, technology, and investment. With Trump in erratic and uncertain ways, with Biden after the elections of 2020 consistent and with single minded determination to limit flows. Not just Xi, any other Chinese leader would have had to have the internal discussions about the need to shift back to a model China was familiar with and one that worked before- that of state intervention in the economy, that of reducing the inequalities that posed risks for the CCP's survival as forging a path for stability to carry out the twin banners of the May 4, 1919 Movement - Science and Modernization as China's salvation. Unlike the hysteria about China posing a challenge to the US these internal debates of Xi and the party may have concluded that the US with about half the population of China's as it grows with immigration in the future and multiple times the per capita GDP was a country that no other country was going to come close to. In this sense the supply chains are deceptive as these are likely to be completely redone under the Biden administration to bring most important manufacturing back to China. It is in this context that Xi had limited room to manoeuvre and decided to focus on stability for the long term to fulfill China's dream of the May 4, 1919 Movement of the last 100 years for Science and Modernization casting aside the risks associated for instability of the inequality that comes with more of the western type of growth, and with the climate change risks also associated with it. Lower growth gives China a chance to correct some of the flaws of the hyper growth that was partly of its own making and partly thrust upon it by investors from the outside, so that the new climate would best serve the goals of the May 4, 1919 Movement of keeping high the banners of Science and Modernization. This kind of rethinking is also going on in the US in the same manner about inequalities and hardships for workers and families, with some of the anger directed at China as internal political sentiment- hence the trillions of dollars moved by the Biden administration to address the flaws of growth under free markets and intervene in the economy where needed as in climate change to give firm sense of direction. In a sense the direction taken in different contexts the American and the Chinese are the same - address the problems of workers and families, of the people, as Lincoln had pointed out and striven so hard for, so that Labor is the more important than Capital, and workers and families vital to the nation.   ...

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US Senate increases debt limit increase to $5.1 trillion from House 3B Tax Cuts Bill debt limit of $4.1 trillion in 2025. The Big Bold Beautiful Bill as the president calls it will also make the debt limit increase permanent to avoid the brinksmanship of earlier administrations. Republicans will pass this as they assume the mantle of working for the average middle class and working class household. Republicans have taken up the cause of small businesses in the US who are supported by this bill. The bill in the view of Treasury Secretary Bessent helps growth of the economy through its 100% expensing provisions, so that the capital expenditures spending of small and large businesses on equipment and buildings that is now held up will take place  rapidly in the coming year. The 3B Tax Cuts Bill does decrease the taxes of the higher income households, yet it also decreases the taxes of small business owners, and of people in the middle income range. Similar bills in the Reagan period led to a larger share of national income going to a majority of the population, and increasing growth and investment. This bill's expensing provisions goes a step further to release capex energies. During the Carter period before Reagan and the Biden period before Trump's second term the lower income classes were cheated out of their income's propensity for a better standard of living by inflation. Republican administration of DJT has focused on inflation to help working class people and focused on capital investment to generate the growth that will increase jobs. ...

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In the next 15 years approximately India will have a higher percentage of working age population to non-working age population than China, based on information from the UN and Morgan Stanley. The number of people over 64 and under 15 has declined from 69% to 56% in 2010, according to UN figures. By 2020 the working age population will increase by 136 million in India, compared to 23 million in China. From this it can be seen that a huge demographic change is playing out. As China's economy matures and with the one-child policy in place, China's working age population is expected to decline; just as India's working age population picks up. This should give India momentum in the next 15-20 years, and lead to an increasing growth rate in India, just as China's growth rate slows. India's weak areas are infrastructure, and education. Infrastructure development will accelerate nevertheless, with larger private investments and participation in projects; and India will move up the experience curve as more projects are completed. Education for the poorer classes and in public schools will remain a problem. Private schools are making up for the weakness in this area, and private schools now make up 20% of attendance even in the rural areas according to one estimate. The strong points are democratic structures and the rule of law, private enterprise and private companies, English speaking middle class, and smart initiatives by business to develop low cost products that are affordable for all segments of sciety in India. For instance a $35 laptop developed by the IIT and Indian Institute of Science researchers, and Tata Chemicals development of a filter for 30 rupees or 65 cents that would filter water for a month for a family of five. This will bring the benefits of development to all segments of society as development progresses, and is crucial for balanced development in the poorer parts of Asia. Tata Motors 1 lakh ruppees car concept and the Tata Nano as its tangible product, is another verson of this kind of development being pioneered in India. Being a democratic country makes some processes slower, yet at the same time the private initiative enabled by democratic processes -cultivated over a long period from British times -enables a creative sort of development that could be turned into a distinct advantage....

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Consumers are taking on new loans for cars and purchases such as refrigerators, but at the same time businesses and consumers are paying off debt at a faster rate. The sharp decline in the Euribor rate in 2015 is good news for Spanish consumers and business as most loans are tied to the Euribor rate. Yet memories of the severe downturn in the Spanish economy are leading to consumers reducing debt with reluctance to take on new loans. The result is that even though Spain's economy is expected to show 3% growth in GDP in 2015, the loan levels at Spanish banks are expected to remain flat in 2015 over 2014. The IMF says GDP will not reach precrisis levels till 2017, reflecting how deep this downturn has been in Spain. IMF forecasts show that debt held by Spain's businesses and households will be double economic output till about 2020.

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Xi Jinping in his New Year speech showed an awareness of the vast changes taking place and the need for humility, listening to different viewpoints during the pandemic. It reflects the new tone after the zero covid policies were abruptly put aside. "Ours is a big country. It is only natural for different people to have different concerns or hold different views on the same issue." Xi urged consensus through communication and consultation. He has told visiting European officials that the frustration with covid policies had caused prtoests mostly by students. Today sick workers are bringing factories to a halt, service sector activity is slowing down. Hospitals are swamped with sick patients. Xi says the policy shift is a way to adapt to the evolving virus with higher transmissibility and lower fatality rate for Omicron coronavirus. He describes China's economy as basically sound and reaching 4% growth in 2022 and GDP at about $17.4 trillion not adjusted for inflation. ...

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China's GDP declines by 6.8% in the first quarter 2020 year over year, and 9.8% from the previous quarter, the first such decline since 1992, even going as far back as 1976 with the passing of the Mao era. It is not power production or coal consumption which have returned to prior levels. It is the demand from the U.S. and Europe, other countries which are in lockdowns. Estimates are that 80 million people in a population of 900 million working age people lost their jobs, with another 10 million expected to be lost, about 10% of the total. Global trade companies are hardest hit.  Consumers inside China are reducing spending. Some are using only the small government issued vouchers designed to get people to go out and spend.  The Trump administration plans to bring back some of the production lost to China in essential areas such as public health and security back to the U.S. The supply chains are already shifting to other countries from U.S. tariffs. As a result some estimates show zero growth in 2020 for China. Financial instability and prior leveraging concerns remain to prevent any serious stimulus. By contrast the U.S. is cushioning the impact with $2 trillion aid package benefitting from a strong dollar and healthy economy before the virus. ...

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South Korean president Moon Jae-in sees his popularity drop from a high of 83% with the outreach efforts to North Korea, to 60% by July 2018 with concern about the economy. Presdent Moon-Jae-in made a campaign pledge for $9 minimum wage by 2020. Recently the minimum wage was increased by about 11% for 2019 after a 16% increase for 2018. Job growth slowed from 836,000 in first 6 months of 2018 compared to 2.15 million for the prior year.

Critics say the increase affects mom and pop small business and results in slower job growth. Youth unemployment is at 9%.

Moon's 83% approval rating is still unusual for South Korea. The opposition conservative party has only 14% approval rating and the previous democratically elected presidents left office with 30% approval.

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The UK government figures show GDP growth for the 3rd quarter 2012 of 1%. In the 1st quarter the economy contracted 0.3% and in the 2nd quarter 2012 it contracted 0.4%. This news is tempered by the fact that one time factors such as the Olympics accounted for the increase. For the year the results for GDP growth are likely to be flat and only modest growth is expected in 2013.

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George Osborne, Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer, says he supports giving regulators powers to take action to split banks that do not ring fence their risky operations and separate deposit taking from risk taking activities. He says this as parliament considers legislation on banking regulation after the LIBOR investigations and problems in British banking following the 2008 financial crisis. Osborne said: "Irresponsible behavior was rewarded, failure was bailed out, and the innocent- people who have nothing to do whatsoever with the banks- suffered." Referring to the larger role of the financial industry in the British economy, Osborne stated: "Our country has paid a higher price than any other major economy for what went so badly wrong in our banking system." This comes as Britain feels the impact of a decline in growth in 2013.

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Upward mobility in China was weak and income growth for average workers sluggish during the years before the coronavirus outbreak. In this sense China is similar to the U.S. and Europe where upward mobility gains after the second world war were lost in the last 30 years partly from the loss of manufacturing to China. It is much worse now as the effects of the coronavirus lead to drops of as much as a third in income for ordinary workers. Lower income workers, the vast majority of Chinese numbering hundreds of millions now suffer from lost work or diminished wages. Small businesses cannot afford to pay the salaries paid before and as workers dip into savings or increase borrowing the retail spending is taking a hit. As a result economists see a vicious cycle of lower spending and lower incomes for the hundreds of millions of ordinary workers in construction and smaller businesses. Some small businesses could just close down because of weak demand affecting the economy over the long term. Before the coronavirus China went over three decades from being a Communist country with relatively equal distribution of wealth but lack of growth and technological development to a capitalist country with the structure of state control of the economy from the Communist period. The result is that 1% of the people control 33% of the wealth and the bottom 25% having 1% of the wealth, according to a 2015 Peking University study. China's president Xi Jinping, head of the Communist party, tried to reverse some of these trends by attacking corruption and making changes that began the task of reversing decades of unequal distribution of wealth under state sponsored capitalist growth. Investments were made in rural medical care, infrastructure and basic services. This did not have much impact because much of the pattern of growth over three decades continues including the housing bubble.  With coronavirus the trend is set for even more unequal distribution of wealth as many workers at the bottom half of the population in incomes either lose work, or see drop in incomes as businesses that hire them struggle from shoe factories to other retail business. Reports of informal economy and street markets in Chengdu in western China and bringing this part of the economy back by the state are effort to get people work in other ways. Researchers estimate that China's bottom 60% of household in incomes lost about $200 billion in income in the first half of 2020. In May premier Li Keqiang said 600 million people in China earn only about $140 a month. Many who lost income or jobs do not have support from the government as China lacks a program of comprehensive unemployment insurance as in Europe and the U.S. to help people get over bad times. 300 million migrant workers are particularly vulnerable to loss of income and dipping into savings.   ...

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Amanda Lacaze of Australian rare earths maker Lynas- what can be learned from her experience in rare earths? Lynas is a Australian mining company with a mine in an eroded volcano Mount Weld that has a concentration of rare earths metals. In 2014 it was faced with China's near monopoly of rare earths and price subsidies, lack of awareness in financial markets and the government about the importance of rare earths in manufacturing. It was a period under the Obama administration that after the Bush administration had little grasp of the importance of manufacturing in America and how its decline would affect communities across the Nation, economists trumpeted the virtue of free markets without grasping how China would wrestle control of manufacturing with state subsidies and aggressive pricing and of strategic new technologies.  This included rare earths where the monopoly was close to 100%- if it is 90% today it is because of companies like Lynas. Production processes at Lynas's plant in Malaysia were not sufficiently developed in 2014. When Amanda Lacaze (now 66 years and head of Australia's Minerals Agency) joined Lynas in 2014 the first problem aside from getting Japanese creditors to restructure loans because of aggressive pricing by Chinese firms was to improve manufacturing processes to get 95% quality instead of 48% quality (measured in number of quality rejected product). This was achieved in the first year. To do this she thinned her management ranks and closed offices in Sydney (to cut costs) and moved management to Malaysia where the problems in manufacturing processes would make or break the company. She was able to get creditor Japanese government backed Japan Australia Rare Earths financial institution to renew and extend loans. Had this not happened the company may not exist today. It shows the sheer foolishness that pervaded most of the American industry at that time, the failed economic theory that said America could not support its industry when rivals were supporting theirs, the Bush and Obama administrations that had no understanding of how the industrial competition was takin place in world trade that could substitute other nations for America' s dominance in manufacturing and did little to push back and regain the position for America in world trade. This ignorance continues in some sections of business today that cannot see the plain facts and refuses to see the enormous damage to the Nation from the destruction of its manufacturing base and loss of good jobs in communities across the US. Lynas is now getting contracts from the US government for rare earths and is the only reason China's dominance in rare earths in 90% and not 100% along with MP Materials of the US. Planning was discredited in the crazy euphoria that turned the fall of the Berlin Wall and the Communist Soviet Union, as economists never understood that planning that was used by the Soviets and Chinese in their Five Yer Plans is just borrowed from centuries of basic ways of conducting business that had originated with the Industrial Revolution in Britain. Without planning the growth of the British Navy and the industry that supported it Britain could never have gained the dominance that it did in the 19th century Industrial Revolution. As the Industrial Revolution spread in the US in the 19th and twentieth century every major company had a 1 year Operating plan and a Long Range Plan for 5 Years and 10 Years. The government would have identified rare earths with foresight as one of the newer technologies and the manufacturing infrastructure needed to support its development if these plans were developed at the different levels of government and at the highest levels. This was done under market economy in China. Instead DJT was forced to step back from trade negotiations with China for unfair trade when China held out with a threat to stop export of rare earths materials in 2025, because a huge hole or gap in planning happened at the highest levels of the US government. That happened 11 years after 2014 when Australian rare earths maker Lynas survival was in doubt under a new CEO Amanda Lacaze. This is only one of many misses in American manufacturing and industry, in world trade, that came from misguided economic theory and failure to grasp the basic facts behind the success of the Industrial Revolution in Europe and the US. ...

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As Macron struggles to present EU's case in Washington DC the problems in Germany loom large.The debt brake Merkel to stop debt based infrastructure investment is what ails Germany and the EU. It has had two pernicious effects. It created the AfD's surge by lowering economic growth and investment in public needs - housing, transport, public services. It worsened the SPD and CDU performance by not investing in security, with no policies to return crime committing refugees to their home countries. A combination of aid and other assistance, diplomacy, would have secured the cooperation of countries to take them back. A strong display of action on removing refugees committing any offenses would have lessened the number of terrorism incidents and reduced a surge in the AfD performance with loss of confidence in chancellor Scholz.  CDU's Merz says he wants to remove the constitutional brake from the German constitution. The SPD under a new leader would want the same as it seeks to invest in the economy. Scholz lacked the foresight not to enter into a coalition with the Free Democrats in 2021 who flatly opposed public spending to meet pressing infrastructure needs lowering growth.  Both CDU of Merkel and SPD of Scholz lacked the foresight and the courage to invest and not settle for less for Germany. ...

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Greece shows the first sign of returning to positive economic growth after years of decline leading to a drop in GDP of about 25% since 2008. The Greek economy contracted by 2.6% in the 4th quarter of 2013 compared to the 3rd quarter, according to Hellenic Statistical Authority. For 2013 the economy contraced by 3.7% instead of an estimated 4%. Growth is expected to be flat in 2014 or growth of 0.6%. For the first time manufacturing and retail sales are showing signs of growing and new car registrations increased in Jan. 2014. Finance ministry data show Greece's budget with a surplus of 691 million euros in 2013, compared with a deficit of 3.46 billion euros in 2012, before debt payments. The figure is higher at 812 million euros when money from the EU coming in for public works is added. Unemployment remains high at 28%.

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The Washington Post cites researchers at the University of Chicago about the kind of economy Biden achieved by Jan 2025-

“Under the Biden administration, real GDP rose 12.6 percent, rightly cheered ... as ‘a historically robust expansion’ that repeatedly defied forecasts. Since the pandemic, economic growth in the US has far outpaced that of our peer nations. Business investment is up; unemployment is low.”

As a new DJT administration takes over in the US it has the potential of carrying on the task of rebuilding infrastructure, and strengthening the economy,  tackling cost of living, income indisparities, with greater involvement of the private sector, in the same way that some of the priorities of the first DJT administration such as infrastructure and bringing jobs home in manufacturing were taken up by the Biden administration with participation of the US government in rebuilding the economy.

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Growth of 2.5% for the second quarter in S. Africa, and expected growth of 2% in 2013, down from 2.5% in 2012. High unemployment at 25% and a 23% depreciation of the Rand against the dollar in 2013. The current account deficit is at 5.8% putting pressure on the Rand which is at 10.45 to the dollar in August 2013. Labor unrest at mines which make up about half of exports is hurting the economy. This has spread to other sectors. About 100,000 airport technicians and construction workers were on strike in August 2013 for wage increases at twice the annual inflation rate of 6.3%. Strikes are also taking place at Ford's auo plant.

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Eminent climate ecologist Nicholas Stern says India's commitment by 2070 demonstrates real leadership from Mr. Modi of India.The Guardian says India's commitment to net zero emissions by 2070 is realistic considering that it is decades away from its peak in economic growth and energy consumption compared to US or even China. Energy consumption is expected to grow faster than any other country in the next few years. India's population is also expected to pass that of China as the largest in the world. The Guardian says climate experts who did the modeling have said this was the most realistic scenario for India - to achieve net zero emissions by 2070. This also means India's peak energy emissions will be reached by 2030. Eminent climate ecologist Nicholas Stern says - "This was a very significant moment for the summit. This action might mean India's annual natural greenhouse gas emissions could peak by 2030. This demonstrates real leadership from a country whose emissions per capita are about one third of the global average."  Also significant is Mr. Modi's pledge to deliver on 5 commitments 1. 50% of India's power to be generated by renewable energy by 2030. 2. Increase of 500 gigawatts of renewable energy including solar by 2030. 3. Reducing carbon emissions by 1 billion tons by 2030. 4. Reduce carbon intensity of the economy by 45% by 2030. This relates to how efficiently energy is used to generate 1 unit of economic GDP. With 1.3 billion people India is the third largest emitter of carbon dioxide- at about 3 billion tons- after the US and China. In growth terms this means India is going to grow very differently from the way China did in 2000-2020 with its many highly polluting industrial plants. The head of the US Renewable Energy Agency Mr.Birol says in a BBC intervew that the cement and steel plants alone of China have more emissions than the whole of the European Union's total emissions. Much of this comes from old plants and old technologies with surplus production of steel from what is now a bygone era of excess, inefficiency and chaotic growth. India plans to bring climate change emissions and energy efficiency through renewables into its Gat Shakti master plan for the country's economic.development. ...

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The Putin administration in Russia has set a goal for 2.5% GDP growth for 2013. The figures for the first 5 months of 2013 show growth at 1.8%. Russian president Putin told the St. Petersburg Economic Forum that central bank policies will continue inflation targeting. Putin's economic aide Ms. Elvira Nabiullina will become the new head of the central bank in July 2013. David Lipton, deputy head of the IMF told the forum the IMF assessment is that there is no slack in the Russian economy. Putin announced $13.6 billion in infrastructure investment for rail and road links, and liberalization of gas export rules, and improvements in the judicial system.

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Michael Gove resigns from the Tory government of Rishi Sunak days after the announcement of UK elections on July 4, 2024. Here he says a greater implosion than gaining about 150 seats  for the Tories party could even blow away his chances in a solid Tory seat. Much has changed in Britain since the days of Brexit which is highly unpopular today with the British public. The Times Tim Shipman looks at the controversial decisions of Gove and how he added credibility to the Leave campaign when he had previously advised Cameron against holding a referendum. Today 58% of British people support joining the European Union. Gove's actions and that of others including Johnson, Cummings and Sunak show Conservatives in a poor light leaving Britain in a precarious position with low growth and little room in finances for the kind of investment Britain needs for its infrastructure, public services and its economy. It is a lesson that sudden ill thought out moves for political advantage by politicians and poor decisions can create chaos and diminish a nation's prospects. ...

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Brooks takes a different view about the 1986 Reagan tax reforms providing a way forward in 2013. He says growth is slower now in the U.S. with changes in the global economy and any growth killing tax increases or disincentives for investment are risky changes. He suggests taxing consumption and providing incentives for savings and investment. Closing loopholes will have to tackle the major deductions such as charitable deductions says Brooks.

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A Pew Center poll in Greece shows support for the Euro at 69% in 2013. The situation in Greece has improved in 2013 with the economy expected to decline by 4% in 2013 and return to growth in 2014. The current account deficit at 11% in 2008 is now close to zero. Unemployment is stabilizing and the competitiveness is being restored as labor costs per hour are down 30%, according to Alpha Bank. Ten year government bond yields are now below 8% in 2013, a dramatic improvement.

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Country Garden is turning into a worse problem than Evergrande. Both housing developer companies are in serious financial problems in China affecting the larger economy. Consider that Country Garden has $286 billion in liabilities and $7 billion in first half losses for 2023. Two years earlier Evergrande went into insolvency over extravagant projects and spending. Country Garden's problems come from a shift away from housing in the country a retreat by investors and buyers. Yet 25% of the economy and the savings of ordinary Chinese are tied up in housing. Local government finances are also strained adding to the debt burden. In the boom years housing created hyper growth, now it is in reverse acting as a drag on the economy.

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Paul Krugman's response to Arthur Laffer's recent article warning of the dangers of inflation and rising interest rates, as the monetary base is rapidly expanded by the Fed. Krugman points out that there is one thing Laffer omitted to mention. This is the third time in history that a major economy is facing a liquidity trap, where interest rate cuts have reached their limit, and policymakers and the Fed have to use unconventional measures to keep the economy from a steep descent. Krugman says a rising monetary base isn't inflationary when the economy is in a liquidity trap . He cites facts that the monetary base of the USA doubled between 1929 and 1939, but prices fell 19%. Japan's monetary base rose 85% between 1997 and 2003 but deflation continued in Japan. To reverse course now would repeat the mistakes of that period. And he says the US was experiencing growth in 1937 and 1996, when policy makers reversed course pushing the economy back into a descent, whereas today the US is facing negative growth. ...