LyrArc Article Gist
Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University economist, author of the well researched book on the 2008 financial crisis, "This Time Is Different," gives his thoughts on the economic prospects for the U.S under the new Trump administration. He says 4% GDP growth and 3% inflation is possible temporarily for a while with stimulus policies, less regulation, and increased private investment. After 8 years of not investing in much needed infrastructure because of concerns about the deficit, the timing is right for such investments, especially as the economic effects of the crisis of 2008 gradually fade.  This is about taking advantage of ultra low interest rates to invest in infrastructure. He says it helps that Trump policies are pro-business. He sees drawbacks as the stimulus program adds a 25% increase with extra debt, adding $5 trillion over 10 years, but adds that for many years Nobel prize winning economist Krugman and others have said that there is good reason to increase borrowing to invest, and this is now being tried. Inflation remains an uncertainty- if there are large quantities of underutilized and unemployed resources it would raise prices less than its effect to increase output. The reverse would apply if the U.S. economy is closer to full capacity. One factor that would help- increasing confidence for business and increasing investment. Against this what he calls optimistic view or spin, is the idea of mistakes under a Trump administration, errors made and a degree of incompetence which he says is a real possibility. Overall his view is that some risks are appropriate now, and from his deep study of financial crises sees the slow growth of the last 8 years a result of a financial crisis that now begins to fade, creating the possibility of higher growth under prudent policies.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The northeastern region of Brazil, the poorest region of Brazil, has benefitted from the economic expansion in Brazil. The region's GDP went up by 4.2% a year for the last ten years compared to 3.6% for Brazil. Bolsa Familia, President Lula's anti-poverty programme has benefitted the northeast, but the Getulio Vargas research institute shows three quarters of growth coming from earnings and expansion of export based agriculture in soyabeans and other products and from mining export industries. Projects in the northeast include development of the port and industrial area around Suape. A petrochemical plant, a shipyard and a Petrobras refinery, are under construction. A new railway will link Suape to the interior. Much of the development is for export industries in soyabeans and iron ore, and for the rail and port infrastructure that supports these exports to China. As a result the development looks similiar to what is happening in Australia with the huge expansion in rail and port infrastructure in that country to support iron ore and other mining exports to China. Any slow down in China will affect Brazil as the IMF has recently warned, because of an overdependence on commodity exports to China. Alexandre Rands of local Datametrica consultancy points to this when he says that infrastructure booms while helpful are not enough to sustain development. Big firms train the workers they need which is how Brazilian companies cope with a weak educational system. Schools in the northeast are however not getting the financial support to improve education, a situation that affects Brazil as a whole, but is even more evident in the northeast....

LyrArc Article Gist
The percentage of borrowers with loans overdue 30-90 days is at 7.4% at the end of the 1st quarter 2012, down from 8.3% for the prior year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. About 4.4% of mortgages were in foreclosure at the end of the 1st quarter of 2012, close to the 4.5% the prior year. Florida had foreclosure rate of 14.3%, New Jersey 8.4%, and Illinois 7.5%, at the end of March 2012. The inventory of loans in foreclosure is at 4.39%.

LyrArc Article Gist
Joachim Klement of Wellershoff & Partners in Zurich emphasizes the need for international diversification and investing in Europe's recovery for a well designed investment portfolio.

LyrArc Article Gist
U.S home prices declined by 3.9% for the third quarter compared with the prior year, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index of 20 major metropolitan areas. Prices are expected to be affected by an increase in foreclosed properties put by the banks for sale in coming months. Affordability has increased as prices are down by 31% from the 2006 peak and mortgage rates are at 4%. Yet as one appraiser puts it the problem remains one of tight credit and strict mortgage lending standards, and further home price declines could depress the market.

LyrArc Article Gist
This WSJ editorial points out a big concern in the third quarter 2012 economic growth figures- the figure showing non-housing related investment contracting by 1.3%. It says the U.S. borrowed $5 trillion and all it got in return was 1.7% economic growth- 1.7% being the growth in U.S. GDP for the first 9 months of 2012. It also points out that the growth came from consumer spending and the Federal Reserve's money printing. The consumer spending would be hard pressed to continue if incomes remain stagnant without the capital investment and hiring from the private sector. Government spending accounts for 0.7% of the GDP growth, and estimates for private sector growth in output is about 1.3%.

LyrArc Article Gist
The home price decline is shifting from Las Vegas, Miami and Phoenix to other U.S. cities in 2011. Seattle, Minneapolis and Atlanta are seeing large declines in home prices. Seattle is down 31% from the mid-2007 peak and still has 10 percent to fall, according to real estate site Zillow.

LyrArc Article Gist
The Case-Shiller 20 city Index showed a gain of 1.6% from the prior month in July 2012, and an increase of 5.9% year to date through July 2012. Experts say some of this improvement comes from less short and foreclosure sales which boost pricing data.

LyrArc Article Gist
The new head of U.S. President Obama's Council of Economic Advisors, is Princeton economics professor, Alan Krueger. Kueger is known as the academic's academic, whose office is located with other labor scholars in the Princeton library. His work has focussed on what he calls "Rockenomics" (research about which bands do well and the reasons for this), on commuting, on studies such as the one with a suggestive title, "Sorting in the Labor Market: Do Gregarious Workers Flock to Interactive Jobs?" His appointment suggests the Obama administration is looking at no new policy initiatives, focussing on an incrementalist approach in policy actions, with the hope that he can get both political parties behind smaller changes. Putting a micro-specialist in charge at a time of huge volatility in financial markets shows an administration that is likely to continue the status quo with small changes till the presidential elections in 2012- the opposite of strong action because the Obama adminstration has no idea how to turn this economy around and only hopes things will change....

LyrArc Article Gist
The US added 103,000 jobs on net in December 2010, acccording to the Labor Department. The jobs were mainly added in leisure and hospitality (especially the food services and drinking places subsector ) and in health care. Payrolls for other industries show no growth. A different government survey, which is based on how many people are without jobs but are actively looking for work, fell to 9.4% in December 2010 from 9.8% in November. But part of the reason for this is that many people stopped looking for jobs.

LyrArc Article Gist
Housing market looks weak in Juy 2010 with the U.S. Census Bureau reporting single family housing starts falling in June by 0.7%. Permits for single family starts fell 3% in June 2010. A Wall Street Journal quarterly survey shows rising inventories in 28 metropolitan areas. Inventory was up at the end of June 33% from a year before in San Diego, and 19% in Los Angeles. Compared to 2008 when the banking crisis caused problems, now it is the general economic conditions that are acting as a drag on the housing market.

LyrArc Article Gist
Oil prices are forecast to remain above $100 a barrel in 2012 because of higher social spending in Saudi Arabia, Iran and other countries after the democracy protests, and the threat of retaliation by Iran in the Straits of Hormuz. Iranian threats of retaliation for increased sanctions has embedded a $10-$20 premium in oil prices say some experts.

LyrArc Article Gist
The Wall Street Journal survey of housing market in the US finds prices declined in all 28 major metropolitan areas for the fourth quarter of 2010. And the size of the declines on a year-to-year basis were larger than the previous quarter. Inventory levels are also rising.

LyrArc Article Gist
Krugman says the the higher population growth in Texas has led to higher job growth there relative to the rest of the country. Other factors mitigating the effects of the recession in Texas- the housing and mortgage lending laws in Texas prevented the building up of home equity debt and foreclosures that hit other states, and the oil industry in Texas helped with higher oil prices. Lower wages in Texas, lower living costs, and lower housing costs have attracted jobs to the state. In June 2011, the Texas unemployment rate was 8.2%, lower than California and close to that of New York.