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The long economic boom in Turkey under Erdogan appears to be coming to a close with president Trump's doubling of tariffs on Turkey's steel and the collapse of the currency Lira, leading to a dramatic decline in confidence of foreign investors. For years warnings have come about Turkey's overdependence on dollar denominated foreign loans to finance credit and growth, with the confidence of foreign investors finally shaken with the deterioration of relations with the U.S. over the arrest of a U.S. pastor leading to a tariff war.

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What is not reported is that the US could accept a shift of some appliance production overseas, what it could not accept is the shift of its manufacturing base in industries it created in semiconductors and technology to Taiwan, China and Japan, South Korea. The economists of the previous administrations were clearly wrong, and the previous administrations did nothing but observe the slow destruction of America's industrial base. It will take 4 years of the DJT administration for the investments to be made in the US, the future administrations will continue this policy. Deng and Kellman in WSJ clearly understate the importance of the policy changes for America's Level Playing Field ALPF. It is easy to say Whirlpool and Harley Davidson won't be coming back strongly soon as the EU, Japan and South Korean makers of appliances and motorcycles will be able to absorb most or all of the 15% in tariffs. Yet it gives them a better  and level playing field to compete with foriegn makers. What is not shown here is that the tariffs will help increase investment in EU and Japanese , South Korean automakers in the US, and will increase with lighter regulation the opportunities for American automakers GM and Ford. ...

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Mr. Trump proposes a 10% tariff on all goods imported into the US at Columbia, South Carolina, says this report in WSJ. A universal tariff of this type is similar to Herbert Hoover's Smoot Hawley that brought on the Great Depression in the 1930's in outright beggar thy neighbor policies which don't work, says WSJ. This opinion describes the impact of such a tariff in failing to reverse the trade deficit which is $951 billion in 2022, but fails to point to the lack of effectiveness of tariffs alone in bringing back American manufacturing jobs. As president Biden has pointed out the Trump administration made much talk about returning American jobs but did not accomplish much for American manufacturing to lead the world in the way the Biden administration has done. To do this the Biden administration passed laws to fund a entire new electric car industry, renewable energy industry, and promoting other industries in advanced technologies, including aerospace, to bring back America's leadership in manufacturing of most of the twentieth century with a bold vision for the future. Mr. Trump lacks the experience on this issue and is simply playing the rhetoric to his base without any plan to deliver the goods to sections of the American public that have already suffered the most from decades of neglect of manufacturing by Republicans going back to Reagan and Bush, Democrats Clinton and Obama. ...

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LDP Komeito alliance wins 47 seats. Sanseito nationalist challenging LDP  government wins 14 seats in Japan parliamentary election July 2025. A tariff of 24% on Japanese car imports are increased by DJT to 25% in frustration over slow talks about an agreement. Japanese prime minister Ishiba is unlikely to remain in office more than a few months after losing majority in parliament. This means more uncertainty in the talks with the US over reciprocal and car tariffs. With the nationalists challenging the LDP's stiad party politics the LDP does not want to look weak in defending Japan's national interests.

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This WSJ story shows how China started its steel industry from small beginnings when Chinese leader Deng visited a Nippon Steel plant in 1978. He made the decision to go big with Baosteel, with an investment of $6 billion, with the words- "if we do it lets do it big." This was 36 times the Chinese foreign exchange reserves at the time. From 4% of steel production, this went up and up, passing the U.S. in 1993, past Japan in 1996, and in 2018 producing three times the steel of U.S., Russia and China combined, producing 923 million metric tons of steel in 2018, or more than half of world production of steel. With steel China was able to build its automobile industry, shipbuilding, bridges, infrastructure, high speed rail network. This was done using global demand, subsidies from the government, cheap loans and tax breaks. Markets worldwide were affected by substantial excess production in China. From Baosteel the spread of the steel industry to all 23 Chinese provinces led to China accounting for 25% of world exports. By 2016 5 million workers mostly from the agrarian countryside were employed in the steel industry, helping China transform itself into an rapidly urbanizing and modern economy. It was a period when the rail network was tripled between 1975-2017, with shipping companies that ensured access to Australian coal and Brazilian iron ore. From 2011 to 2017 Chinese steel dropped global prices by 57% triggering closure of steel mills in EUrope and the U.S. About a third of trade complaints since 2001 by G20 countries against China are about steel. After entry into the WOrld Trade Organization Chinese steel exports rose to 8% of GDP from 2%. Subsidies, cheap energy, and shift of agrarian workers to cities. U.S. investigations around 2006 showed Chinese steelmakers subsidies covered 30% to 45% of the subsidized value of steel pipes exported overseas. China's steel prices were set 20-40% lower than the U.S. China responded to complaints saying it was trade protectionism. The WTO rules call for full disclosing of all subsidies. This was disclosed 5 years after joining WTO in 2001, and only for central subsidies. Local government subsidies were not disclosed till 2016- the U.S. says 15 years late. Still the Bush and Obama administrations failed to take action. In 2018 Mr. Trump seized on this as a campaign issue that resonated with American workers in manufacturing communities across the U.S. In 2018 November president Trump announced a 25% tariff on imports of Chinese steel. A six month probe by U.S. officials had already shown 40% of sales value came from subsidies for corrosion resistant steel from China. The U.S. Trade Commission imposed tariffs of its own from 39% to 241%, with the Trump tariffs of 25% coming as an additional tariff to tackle the trade surplus with China. Meanwhile in China the government is closing uncompetitive smaller steel mills and in 2016 it combined baosteel with Wuhan Steel to create a larger company, and consolidate remaining companies. Baosteel now provides the steel for CIMC to dominate the steel container business, and to make ship to shore cranes, and make the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge.  It also goes to show what can be accomplished from small beginnings for countries in the developing world from Asia to Africa and Latin America, with government and industry focussed on development and growth.   ...

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U.S. president Obama made negotiating a Transatlantic Free Trade Agreement with the EU a priority for his second term. Further reduction of tariffs would increase trade by over $120 billion over 5 years from the current $1 trillion level, according to the U.S Chamber of Commerce.

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Justices Gorsuch and Roberts on the "sweeping powers" issue behind the Executive Branch and Executive Orders on Tariffs by the US President DJT. Gorsuch put it this way about the creeping ceding away of powers by the US Congress to the US President DJT- 

Justice Gorsuch calls it- “one-way ratchet toward the gradual but continual accretion of power in the executive branch and away from the people’s elected representatives.”

The ball could be in the US Congress's court if the Supreme Court asks the US Congress to approve the tariffs passed by the president. 

 

 

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Rollback of food tariffs on beef coffee and other agricultural goods by the US November 2025 to address cost of living concerns.

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DJT 1.0 was led on the tariffs policy by USTR Robert Lighthizer, who had experience negotiating with the Japanese negotiators in the Reagan era. He is today respected by  Republicans, is seen in an important role in economic policy and to prepare the tariff policy actions of the new DJT administration. Lighthizer prefers to get Congress to take action with legislation. He also believes that domestic manufacturing will make gains with new and higher tariffs on Chinese imports. Lighthizer policy is falsely compared with Hoover Tariffs Act of 1930 when world trade was 9% of world GDP, today it is 63% of world GDP, and where under Hoover in 1930 the tariffs were across the board all countries 20,000 goods. Under Lighthizer on specific products where dumping is happening -steel, aluminium, autos, with Japan in 1960-70 or China 2000-2020 targeting American industries + technologies for takeover. And falsely when it comes to raising costs to each American family on average by $4000 a year by economists. The conventional view for business for 2000-2016 through Bush and Obama favoring free trade did not take into account the unusual experience of China which entered WTO in 1990, then expanded in a way unprecedented in history at 10-12% growth rates for 15 years destroying American manufacturing with dumping, having support of outshoring by companies in the US, and not giving reciprocal treatment for exports from the US to China. China also had unrestricted access to US technologies in this type of trade. Lighthizer's approach was to specifically address this problem not a general across the board tariffs on all goods (20,000 goods) on all countries as with the Hoover Tariffs Act in 1930. Lighthizer's approach adopted by DJT called for reciprocal trade response with China as the US had already done with Japan, not unilateral across the board tariffs, and when world trade had advanced to about zero tariff rates. And falsely compared to Hoover 1930 Act because under Hoover tariffs were 29-40%. raised to 60% when world trade was small, was 9% of GDP. The Biden administration has tacitly agreed with Lighthizer's vision by not reversing DJT tariffs. A new higher tariff will probably be selective based on the industry, country and what goals the US has set under the new administration for that industry. Some of the tariffs revenue may also be used for tax cuts. ...

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President Trump plans to sign the trade deal with China for Phase 1 on January 15, 2020. Under the deal the U.S. will not go ahead with a new round of tariffs on $156 billion of Chinese goods- including smartphones and consumer electronics- set for December 15, 2019. Tariffs set in place on September 1 on $120 billion of Chinese goods will drop from 15% to 7.5%. The earlier tariffs in place on $250 billion in Chinese goods including machinery and electronics are still in place. In exchange the Chinese will increase purchases by $32 billion in U.S. agricultural goods over the previous levels in the next 2 years.

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In reality the 25% tariffs are fentanyl tariffs to stop flow of fentanyl across borders of Mexico and Canada after a decade of inaction and 490,000 deaths in the US over 12 years.

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Transgender athletes in women's sports case is on January 13, 2026. And whether US president DJT can continue with his tariffs plan.

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In a sign that the trade negotiations with China are stalled even as negotiators met for talks, president Trump said China was slowing talks down in the hope of talking to ELizabeth Warren or Joe Biden, Democratic candidates for the elections in the U.S. in 2020.  President Trump also said China has not come through the way it said on agricultural imports from the U.S. He tweeted "that is the problem with China they just don't come through." Mr. Trump also took credit for the slowing down of China's economy from the tariffs war. Mr. Trump took credit for China's weakening economy, making some companies leave, the tariffs he has imposed on $250 billion of Chinese products causing enormous pressure. Chinese exports to the U.S. have dropped by 8.5% and exports to other countries up slightly. China's infrastructure investments are cushioning part of the shock from the tariffs war. No major stimulus is planned in China because it would worsen the debt already accumulated after the over stimulus conducted in response to the financial crisis of 2009. Both sides are willing to wait it out.   ...

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UAW's Shawn Fain's support of US 25% auto tariffs April 2, 2025. Fain says-“We applaud the Trump administration for stepping up to end the free trade disaster that has devastated working class communities for decades.” US president Biden supported the UAW, even standing in a picket line to support UAW negotiate a contract for fair wages for workers with the three US automakers, Ford, GM and Stellantis. For decades workers in the US faced the threat of outshoring to Mexico to reduce wages. This action on tariffs will increase depressed wages for American workers in the same way that president Biden's action helped negotiate better wages. In this sense both Biden and DJT are on the same track. In fact president Biden 2020-2024 decided to keep most of the tariffs put up by president Trump in 2016-2020. It is likely that a future Democratic administration will continue DJT tariff policies to achieve domestic goals such as fair wages for American workers, and for rebuilding American manufacturing in the way president Biden has done. This is in fact one of the singular achievements of the Biden administration for building the working class and middle class neglected by Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations. On this issue both Biden, Trump and any future US president will be on the same page, because it is about fair trade, to even the playing field, and is right by American workers and American values. History will show that this required courage and persistence on the part of Biden and DJT, and was done not on whim as is falsely portrayed but on the advice of people who had the experience, wisdom and sought the best for America such as Robert Lighthizer ,the US Trade Representative in 2016-2020 and his deputy Jamieson who is the USTR in 2025. Lighthizer is notable because he handled the unfair trade with the Japanese in the 1980's as Deputy USTR under Reagan, and knows fair trade and how to get it to build a strong American economy. ...

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With China slowing down imports of US agricultural products farmers in the US may be given priority for assistance from the DJT administration, including the use of the funds from tariffs on incoming goods.

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The top 20% of Americans own 87% of the stocks powering most of the spending in 2025. Upward trends in the stock market in the US with resilient markets overcoming the Liberation Day tariffs announcement, are powering the spending by higher income professionals and business people. WSJ looks at the people owning stocks ages 36 years to 77 years, and their spending on cars, furniture, home renovation and travel. The situation is not so good for middle class Americans living from paycheck to paycheck, students and young people.

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President Trump reiterated his threat to place tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese goods in addition to earlier tariffs on $250 billion in goods.  The problem China faces is that it China imports less, far less than the U.S. does. China has only $10 billion in U.S. goods to place tariffs on. This is after placing tariffs on $110 billion in U.S. goods, mostly agricultural products such as soyabeans in retaliation for U.S. tariffs on the $250 billion of Chinese goods. China could place a ban on imports from Boeing or restrict the access for U.S. companies to the Chinese market. U.S. companies have invested billions of dollars in the China and employ about 2 million Chinese in well paying jobs. Concerns about unemployment would be uppermost to prevent these jobs being affected. Other concern for China is the loss of foreign investment as relations deteriorate. Already supply chains in some products such as clothing and consumer products is shifting other countries in Asia. In automobiles the regional hubs are expected to shift with India as a potential hub for Asia, and Mexico preserving its place as a North American hub following renegotiation of NAFTA. In media the dispute is leading to a shift from Chinese consumers buying Adidas instead of Nike and Huawei smartphones instead of Apple.  For an already slowing economy this hurts China more than the U.S. which is why the U.S. is pushing China to settle with an agreement that the U.S. can trust to bring down China's trade surplus. For the U.S. as most of the loss in exports is in agricultural products the solution has been to provide government aid to farmers, and for Mr. Trump to use the issue to point out that he is fighting for U.S. interests and for fairness. This is why the trade dispute poses more problems for China. Because the surplus is so wildly skewed in China's favor after the inaction of many U.S. presidents just as it was for Japan in the eighties, the situation appears to be headed towards a definite reversal of the lopsided trade surplus enjoyed by China. In the process the U.S. plans to build up the competitive edge it has lost to some degree.  ...

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Neil Irwin in the NYT why the U.S. China Phase 1 Trade Agreement is more than a hill of soyabeans as he puts it, more than about all the soyabeans that the U.S. farmers can sell to China. China's economy was seeing the effect of U.S. tariffs. Additional tariffs to cover all imports from China to the U.S. would have worsened this. China avoided this by agreeing to Phase 1. The U.S. had looked for some enforcement mechanism based on China putting this down in a written agreement particularly for avoiding subsidies to state enterprises and improper access to U.S. advanced technologies. China's reluctance to do this led to Mr. Trump saying that China had reversed its position and Trump expanding the tariffs stage by stage. These issues are now set aside for Phase 2 still to be negotiated. Both sides taking what they could get. China relief from the threat of tariffs on all exports. The U.S. under Mr. Lighthizer's negotiating leadership retaining the enforcement idea through the tariffs that are still in place of 25% on half of China's exports to the U.S. The bonus for Mr. Trump is the goodwill China generates by agreeing to buy all the U.S. farmers can produce, farmers having not only stood behind Mr. Trump but also forming a key part of his support base. China will continue to compete in technological areas with the U.S., and the state enterprise model which worked for China as Mr. Xi tells visitors will continue. Phase 2 is just that Phase 2, when and if it can be negotiated between Trump with his negotiator Lighthizer and Xi with his negotiator Liu He. On key points neither side is budging. A key goal for Mr. Trump is to put the trade surplus China enjoys of $300 plus billion a year with the U.S. on a serious downward path, and bring so many of the jobs and manufacturing back home. On this trade data for 2019 and the plan for 2020 of both countries is clear. It should be down each year by 10-20% for the next few years, a major achievement of Mr. Lighthizer, who did the same with  Japan under president Reagan. ...

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DJT raises issue of NATO countries Turkey Hungary and Slovakia others buying Russian oil and gas + EU trade with China while asking for US help. Britain is a NATO country expanding trade with China while being strident about Russia. Germany has over two decades built economic relations with China through a period of Russian attacks on Ukraine including the Scholz administration approving China's stake in the port of Hamburg. India has been singled out by the EU and US, and by DJT with high tariffs while Britain and Germany carry on expanding trade with China. DJT believes China's support has emboldened Russia in its policy in Ukraine including pausing peace negotiations.

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Plan B is to reimpose the tariffs using the Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act and Section 301 which puts the tariffs on firm legal footing. In fact the ruling by the ITC Court on the use of emergency powers under IEEPA law said there was already Section 122 on the basis of which serious trade imbalances could be addressed. Trade Adviser Navarro told Bloomberg that this was a possible strategy to reimpose the tariffs. The federal appeals court has allowed the tariffs to remain in place after the ITC ruling. The administration is appealing it to the US Supreme Court saying that the ITC ruling has unfairly jeopardized the president's negotiations with other countries. 

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US Trade Agreement with Japan $550 billion in investment in US and 15% tariff. The 15% tariff is lower than the 24%-25% tariff DJT had imposed on Japan.

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For the first time the U.S. focuses on the huge trade deficit with China in a serious way. The trade negotiating team led by Robert Lighthizer has set forth its negotiating terms.  1. China must reduce its trade deficit with the U.S. by $100 billion in the first 12 months. In the next 12 months it must reduce its deficit by another $100 billion. In 2 years the trade deficit the U.S. has with China must come down by $200 billion. The issue is no longer just the tariffs on steel, it is about the core issue of balance in  trade. 2. The U.S. says subsidies to state industries in the "Made in China 2025" program must stop. Here the focus is on gaining an unfair technological advantage with a combination of U.S. technology imports and subsidies to state advanced manufacturing industries to erode over time the U.S. technological lead.  3.  China is expected to cut its tariffs by about two thirds on imported products so that the tariffs match that of the U.S. This is the first serious negotiation the U.S. has conducted with China on the core issue of the trade surplus which is growing with a stronger dollar not declining. The surplus approaches $1 billion each day for about $365 billion a year, unsustainable from any perspective. The vital issue of the erosion of the U.S. technological advantage under the Made in China 2025 has turned this issue into one in which the U.S. is unlikely to back down. Especially now that Mr. Lighthizer is leading the  negotiations and has the confidence of the president of the U.S. Lighthizer is a veteran of negotiations from an earlier period -under the Reagan administration in a similar situation with another national competitor- then it was the Japanese. A relentless negotiator as the U.S. seeks to reverse a trade imbalance of stupendous proportions neglected by previous administrations.           ...