LyrArc Article Gist
This report by Peter Baker shows President Trump only reluctantly agreed to certify the Iran Nuclear Agreement. He opposed it in discussions with the Secretary of State Tillerson. It took the combined effort of Tillerson Dunford of the combined chiefs of staff, Defense Secretary Mattis, and of National Security Adviser McMaster, to get Trump to agree to go ahead with the deal. President Trump wanted a new strategy to counter Iran in the Middle East. The Iranian foreign minister Zarif has not yet met with Tillerson of the U.S. Zarif says Iran may withdraw from the deal if there is significant nonperformance by the U.S. Trump advisers are wary about the influence on Europe as the EU is not interested in taking a new look at the Iran nuclear deal. The EU sees things differently- that the issues of Iranian influence in the war torn Middle East is a separate issue from the nuclear deal, and that in any case a nuclear constrained Iran is better than one with nuclear weapons. Another factor is that the Middle East is now a complicated place with relations crisscrossing in different and even conflicting directions. The U.S. played a part on the Iranian side in the retaking of Mosul in Iraq with U.S. bombing strikes against Islamic State. In Iraq the U.S. is supporting the Abadi government which is mainly Shiite in its structure and is supported by Iran. The Trump position is that president Obama gave away too much in negotiating the deal and was not against the negotiating process.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Iran Proposal that asks $2 million per ship to be split with Oman for opening the Hormuz Straits- April 6 2026. China, Japan can pay this amount to get the 90% of the oil they need from Hormuz, which would go to reconstruction of war damage in Iran. India would shift some of its purchase of oil and gas to the US and so will Japan over 2027-2028. This would result in a shift away from the Persian Gulf dependence to renewable energy and to buying oil and gas from US+Venezuela as more reliable sources. European Union and Britain would also make this shift as shown in the adjoining article by Prof Geoffron of Universite Paris Dauphine in Le Monde. The proposal also requires US and Israel to commit to no future attack on Iran, and Israel to stop its attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon. The US and DJT call the new regime under a Speaker of the Iranian parliament, an elected president who had to respond to people sentiment in the election, and a grandson of Khomeini, one that is easier to talk with than the earlier regime. The problem remains nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles development that the US has as its sole objective which is what the war is about than Hormuz as the US and DJT say Hormuz is China and Japan's problem where for some strange reason these industrial powers import 90% of their oil from Hormuz and have done this after 40 years of disruptions, a mystery they can solve on their own. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Israeli attack on South Pars Field and Iranian response with attack on Qatar North Field- this happens on March 18, 2026. About 10% of total global oil supplies are affected about 7 million barrels a day. Attacks on oil facilities and fields are a different order of magnitude compared to closure of Straits of Hormuz, as oil tankers can still deliver the oil when it is safe to cross the sea passage. Attacks on oil fields and facilities will take a long time to repair. The US president calls on Israel to stop such attacks. The Pars gas field supplies homes in Iran and is used for fertilizer production in Iran. It also supplies Turkey which would have to get alternative supplies from Russia or on the world market.Oil briefly hits $116 a barrel before settling at $96. The situation resembles the one in Ukraine when Ukraine grain production could not be sent from the Black Sea ports to Europe and Middle Eastern countries like Turkey, Egypt and Morocco, and fertilizer exports could not be sent to Asia. The Russian attacks on Ukraine ports led to global shortages of fertilizer and grain. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Watch key moments of King Charles Address to the US Congress April 28 2026. This is the most warmly and most embraced speech in the US Congress in decades. The last time a British monarch was in the US, and addressed the US Congress was Queen Elizabeth in the Suez crisis of 1956. Looking back the Suez crisis was precipitated by a Arab nationalist military officer taking over (nationalizing) the Suez Canal in Egypt from British and French control. As this was when the British and French Empires existed in Africa and Asia, and the US was for freeing people requiring breakup of these Empires.  It should be remembered American General Stilwell carried out this policy in China by fighting the Japanese Empire in China, and also India. America was never on the side of Empires as some would have us believe, and there is no better example of American spirit and generous heart than General Joe Stilwell in China for 1900-1950. Today Keir Starmer and Macron's move to represent the British and French as innocent bystanders is anything but, as the British and French created 50 years of wars in the Middle East by creating the artificial states of Lebanon, Syria and Iraq of Shia and Sunni people out of the defeated Ottoman Empire by 1921. King Charles was making the best of the bad situation in his speech as he supports US position of naval blockade to prevent Iran (or for that matter any place in the Middle East a powder keg of a region like the Balkans in 1914 that started WWI) from getting nuclear weapons. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Water shortages, inflation of 50% and tax increases of 62%, economic protests in Iran and discontent with billions of aid for proxies. The political discontent is fueled by economic discontent and Iranians oppose sending billions of dollars in aid to proxies of Iran in the Middle East, in Lebanon and Yemen, involvement in other parts of the world. Women's protests happened in 2022, and this has merged into the general wave of protests. This Dw.com report says the situation is such that the prime minister says it is "difficult to govern the country." A year ago in Jan 2025 the currency Rial was 820,000 to 1 US Dollar, in Jan 2026 it is 1.45 million Rials. This makes everything harder to import.

LyrArc Article Gist
US Navy to protect the Khawe Al Amaya oil terminal in Iraq with a longterm military installation.

LyrArc Article Gist
WSJ says Tulsi Gabbard posted pictures of herself on a beach in Hawaii when the US action took place in Venezuela to bring Maduro to justice in the US courts for drug trafficking. DJT has increasingly relied on CIA chief Ratcliffe in intelligence matters  says the WSJ. Gabbard failed to recognize the importance of the effort to remove nuclear weapons in Iran after failure in negotiations.

LyrArc Article Gist
DJT moves ahead with a decision to stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons by bombing nuclear sites ar Fordow and other sites that were hard to reach.

LyrArc Article Gist
Only the week before Tuesday April 7 Pakistan Foreign Minister Dhar failed to convince China to get involved. April 7th Tuesday in the US 1.30 pm US time, 8 pm Islamabad Pakistan time, China finally decided to jump in to convince Iran to accept peace talks in Islamabad. It is quite possible that behind the scenes the US was talking with China which has a 25 Year Comprehensive Agreement with Iran signed in 2021 that is the main support for the Iranian economy. China acted to reassure Iran that talks in Islamabad would proceed smoothly, and persuade Iran to accept ceasefire and talks. Why? Knowing that brinksmanship by US and Iran would lead to unforeseen consequences and hurt China's economy with oil price volatility as well as  hurt the US economy, and hurt the prospects for the planned May14-15 visit by DJT to Beijing to improve economic and political ties, both China and the US wanted to do everything to prevent this from happening. The result a hastily arranged peace talks in Islamabad so that by 4 am Islamabad time on Wednesday or 6.30 pm US time on Tuesday evening the ceasefire had already been agree to by US and Iran, according to this report in The Guardian from Pakistan. The crux of the matter was that it would affect US and China's economy with oil volatility, and US-China relations by jeopardizing May 14-15 revised date for DJT visit to Beijing. This good sense prevailed over all the war rhetoric and the media information and disinformation. It is confusing because of all the misinformation, but becomes clear when one understands this in the context provided in this report from Pakistan by the Guardian. Why Pakistan? For Pakistan the missile attack the day before of a Saudi petrochemical complex by Iran was drawing Saudis into the war and Pakistan has signed a defense agreement with Saudi Arabia that requires Pakistan to support Saudi Arabia if it gets into a war. For Pakistan it was a fragile situation that would be a catastrophe with unforeseen consequences on its economy. Already schools are closed for 1 month in Pakistan and oil is in short supply, paying for it at $115 or $125 a barrel would put severe strain on Pakistan. Who wins, who loses is being told in the media- much less on the good sense that prevailed  the efforts and the predicament of the large powers China, India, the US, and Germany, European Union, the poorer countries, all hurt economically, caught in a war they do not want, do not need. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
US naval blockade of Iran includes tracking the 1500 ships in the shadow fleet that operate in the area- WSJ on how the US is doing it. For ships going in shadow ships can disguise their destination, when coming out in these waters it is difficult to do this and the US has good tracking ability. For the US the operation this is something it is already doing in waters of the Atlantic around Venezuela, and which the US has air and sea capabilities of the US Navy.

LyrArc Article Gist
U.S. officials confirm the use of Iraqi airspace by Iran to supply arms to the Assad regime in Syria. It showed the lack of U.S. leverage in Iraq as the U.S. leaves Iraq without an agreement.

LyrArc Article Gist
WSJ story of the rescue operation involving hundreds of aircraft of US pilot of F15-E from mountainous southern Iran.

LyrArc Article Gist
Liz Sly of the Washington Post provides this exceptional account of the different phases of the war in Syria originating in 2011 with the Syria democracy protests, suppression of protests by the Assad regime, civil war by 2012 , Russian intervention by Putin, the U.S. under Obama and France under Hollande on the sidelines in 2012-2014. The result is a breakup of Syria by 2014 with coastal areas under the Assad regime supported by Russia and Iran, the Kurdish controlled areas, areas controlled by various rebel groups, and the control of other areas by Islamic State which also gained control of Mosul in Iraq. France conducting an air campaign in Syria in 2015 in response to terrorist attacks originating in Syria. With a number of foreign countries involved in support of Sunni and Shia factions in the conflict, the Turks opposing Kurdish autonomy, the U.S. supporting Kurdish forces after withdrawal from Iraq under president Obama, the situation by the beginning of 2016 was much more complex than in 2011. The five year period led to a situation where half of the population of Syria of 22 million is displaced or turns into refugees, about 2 million in refugee camps in Turkey, and 500,000 seeking asylum in Germany and Austria. In Iraq an additional 2 million are displaced or refugees with the Sunni-Shia conflict. Understanding of the events and insights over these 5 years can be gained from the group- "Events for the democracy protests and the struggle for freedom in Syria." The intervention of foreign countries and the missing element of U.S. leadership in the region in 2011-2015 as the U.S. and France remain preoccupied with economic crisis, lead to a situation where most Syrians decide to leave the country entirely. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Washington Post Editorial Board on how to bring down oil prices  during Iran War, including repealing Jones Act. The Jones Act says that only US ships can transport oil between US ports. France is sending warships to help escort tankers in the Persian Gulf. US has plans to do this to escort tankers. US can provide 24/7 drone coverage in the Persian Gulf to eliminate waterborne threats says the Post. The Post says it is in the French interest for oil trade to resume, and in America's interest.

LyrArc Article Gist
US naval blockade of Iran in Arabian Sea starts April 13 2026. US destroyed Iran's larger ships 158 of them, yet Iran also has a fleet of smaller attack boats which it plans to use in Hormuz. These are harder to detect and can be hidden in coves along the Iranian coast and used against ships. The US with its naval blockade is now prepared to do what it has done also in Venezuela, stop and interdict fast drug boats on the Venezuelan side in the Atlantic ocean. By blockading Venezuela in the ocean US is using its strengths, and stopping drug boats its ability to pinpoint traffic on the ocean. Similar capabilities are well suited to Arabian Sea and Red Sea on the open oceans and away from narrow Hormuz playing to US strengths and capabilities. Aircraft carriers and destroyers and the US Air Force is in a position to do what it does best control open seas like the British did in their heyday of the Royal Navy for most of 1750-1920. This avoids options of Hormuz itself with its narrow 15 mile gap of water between Oman and Iran too close to mountainous terrain on either side, and of the Kharg Island option which would require special forces to be backed up with more ground forces. This is the most viable option and the interlude of couple of weeks has given the president an opportunity to make a better choice for positioning the US forces where the US has its strongest points. What is lacking is the individual powers of Britain and France whose leaders Starmer and Macron have popularity below 20%. Yet the US is better off making good choices and not having these nations alongside. The posturing by European nations is limited to France and UK, as Germany and Italy are in sync with the US position. Much of the media operates as if the goal of preventing the spread of nuclear weapons to the Middle East is not important for long term peace for nations such as China and India with about 3 billion people and the billions of people of Asia, Latin America and Africa. For the first time in 400 years since 1600 as Asian civilizations began a long decline China and India have emerged in 2000-2030 into the kind of modern economies and societies that exist in Europe and the US. The last thing they need is the risk of destroying the Modern World with nuclear proliferation when it took centuries to get to the right opportunity after 1950 to modernize China and India. Xi's and Modi's generation are the first to experience modernization in Asia after Japan's experience. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
A second round of talks in Baghdad concludes after the first round in Istanbul, Turkey. No agreement is reached. A third round of talks is planned in Moscow for June 18-19, 2012. The bloc of countries negotiating with Iran is composed of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany, known as the P5+1. Talks were led by the EU's foreign policy chief, Catherine Ashton, and by Saeed Jalili for the Iranians. Ashton said they had found common ground but significant difference remain.

LyrArc Article Gist
It reduces oil prices a little bit so why not let India buy Russian oil for 30 days- Scott Bessent announcement March 5 2025. Bessent said for the US- "India is an essential partner of the United States, and we fully anticipate that New Delhi will ramp up purchases of US oil. This stop-gap measure will alleviate pressure caused by Iran's attempt to take global energy hostage."

LyrArc Article Gist
The UN security council document does not have sanctions against Iran's largest banks and is a watered down document after disagreements between members especially after the release of intelligence report from the USA that Iran gave up pursuing nuclear weapons in 2003. The goal appears to be to keep Iran on the right path even as direct negotiations take place.

LyrArc Article Gist
The foreign ministers of Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia meet in Riyadh March 22-24 to discuss ways to give more time before a US effort to open the Straits of Hormuz to shipping by a proposed attack on Iranian energy infrastructure as a last resort. Speaker of Iranian parliament and other officials do not support a move to end the war at this time, says the WSJ reporting. The foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Egypt do not support a Suez Canal type solution that gives Iran a fee for the shipping in the Straits. Other solutions are being looked at that are acceptable to all sides.

LyrArc Article Gist
Israel outlined its own proposals for a nuclear agreement on April 6, 2014. Israel's Intelligence Minister Yuval Steinitz, says any deal must include Iran cease all nuclear research and development activity, remove its enriched uranium stockpile from the country, reduce the number of centrifuges to below what was agreed to in the outline that emerged from talks with Iran in April 2015, closing of the underground facility at Fordow that was built clandestinely in the early 2000's. Steinitz said- "The deal has to be made on the assumption that Iran might violate it."