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DJT action to add another 50% tariff on China by Wednesday April 9, 2025 if it does not withdraw it's retaliatory tariff by Tuesday April 8.

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In a sign that the trade negotiations with China are stalled even as negotiators met for talks, president Trump said China was slowing talks down in the hope of talking to ELizabeth Warren or Joe Biden, Democratic candidates for the elections in the U.S. in 2020.  President Trump also said China has not come through the way it said on agricultural imports from the U.S. He tweeted "that is the problem with China they just don't come through." Mr. Trump also took credit for the slowing down of China's economy from the tariffs war. Mr. Trump took credit for China's weakening economy, making some companies leave, the tariffs he has imposed on $250 billion of Chinese products causing enormous pressure. Chinese exports to the U.S. have dropped by 8.5% and exports to other countries up slightly. China's infrastructure investments are cushioning part of the shock from the tariffs war. No major stimulus is planned in China because it would worsen the debt already accumulated after the over stimulus conducted in response to the financial crisis of 2009. Both sides are willing to wait it out.   ...

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Latest data from the U.S. Treasury shows it has collected $63 billion in tariffs over the preceding 12 months. Even though there is no agreement on trade with China, president Trump says the U.S. is benefitting from higher tariffs by tens of billions of dollars. In May he estimated tariff revenues could reach $100 billion.This report in the WSJ says this could happen if the the new tariffs of 10% on additional $300 Chinese goods imported to U.S. goes into effect on September 1. This is likely considering that China sees this in different terms than the U.S. such as its sovereignty, whereas the U.S. sees it simply in terms of fair trade. With new elections China may be simply putting things off till the election is decided as Mr. Trump has pointed out. The tally of what the U.S. Treasury gets annually if $100 billion is generated in tariffs goes something like this. Of this $30 billion was generated previously for the U.S. government, so the incremental amount is $70 billion. Of this about $16 billion goes to offset the effect of loss of farm exports to farmers, mainly soyabeans exports to China, through a rescue fund. This leaves additional $54 billion for the U.S. Treasury. Money that could conceivably be put back into infrastructure that the U.S. badly needs in mobile and fixed to improve internet speeds and move up from its low rankings compared to China and other countries. A WSJ report this week shows Germany in worse shape than the U.S., both countries having dismal status in mobile infrastructure- the U.S. at No. 37, and Australia No. 4, Canada No. 3, and even Croatia No. 9. This throws some light on why this trade dispute has become intractable, for China the right of a sovereign nation to move past middle income status even as its telecom technology with Huawei 5G is top class, and for the U.S. the right not to fall behind in advanced technologies such as Telecom. It is also why one hears so much about Huawei and why it has become a flashpoint of the conflict in trade and trade practices. It is thought Mr. Trump is conducting this trade dispute. Yet less known is the fact that prominent Republicans in Congress such as Senator Warner have stated on television talk shows that they are concerned Mr. Trump may give up too much in negotiations that lead to the U.S. not being able to compete in telecom advanced technologies that matter for competitiveness and for national security. What was treated by Bush and Obama administrations routinely without much attention to the consequences is now a top concern for Republicans and others in Congress and business. ...

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India, Brazil and South Africa as members of BRIC's means that the US position has support within BRIC's with nuances such as words on multipolarity of institutions. India has allowed trade to be done in rupees with Russia as trade is heavily imbalanced with Russia- India exports $4.1 billion to Russia and imports oil and gas worth $61 billion. Russia gets Rupees for the oil and invests it in the Indian equity markets and bonds.

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It is not that this or that economic thinking is right, what is right is scientific observation of how "We the People" perform under different economic foundations and coming up with what works without ideology. This report writes about Pettis and Lighthizer, who have made observations and economic advice about reindustrialization through judicious use of tariffs. The difference between Biden/Harris/ Walz and Trump/Vance in 2024 is that Biden has already put in place a massive infrastructure and American manufacturing plan with government assistance to industry where nothing comparable except tariffs was done in the four years of the Trump administration. Biden/Harris plan to use tariffs selectively to promote reindustrialization while also giving other countries and competitors opportunities to compete- a win-win for the World Economy. The former president's blanket tariffs on all products without direct financial support to American manufacturing and consumers is thus not based on a combination of scientific observation and common sense as reindustrialization requires a calibrated common sense approach to the situation the US faces. ...

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Greg Ip of the WSJ says a second term of former president Trump would look very different from the first. Republicans achieved their goal of tax reform in the first two years of that term. Following that trade tariffs ensued against China creating a different environment in world trade. A second term would lead to more action on trade and more tariffs. Ip says the former president could impose tariffs on all Chinese imports and this would lead to retaliatory tariffs from China and be met with EU retaliatory action in a tit for tat manner. The result would be disruption in world trade and affect the world economy. Higher inflation could also be result of such disruptions.

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Out of 50 economists in a WSJ Survey on inflation in the US, 28 economists say inflation will be higher under a president Trump. Only 8 economists say inflation will be higher under a president Biden. Trump's plan to crackdown on illegal immigration and to raise tariffs will put an upward pressure on prices say the economists in the WSJ Survey. This weeks inflation figure came out at 3%. Under president Biden inflation which reached 9% has come down to 3%, a remarkable achievement that the president alluded to in his press conference yesterday. This is a result of president Biden's cost of living actions on several fronts including housing, energy, retail prices, banking, pharmaceuticals, healthcare, childcare. Biden has made it his top priority. By raising tariffs across the board on imports Trump's actions would lead to higher prices.

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Immigration and drug flows became an explosive issue in the US by 2016, yet between 2016-2024 Venezuelan people outflows added up to 7.1 million migrants including about 1 million to the US, as Venezuela collapsed and Russia intervened to keep the regime.   None of this could have happened with major powers US Russian cooperation. The Monroe Doctrine of president Monroe, 1824, warned European powers to not restore colonial influence in the Americas. By 2024 Syria sent 14 million of its population to Europe, and Venezuela sent 7.7 million migrants to Colombia, Brazil, and the US, as their economies and democratic institutions collapsed. Missing was working cooperation with another military power Russia. Clinton, Bush, Obama, Western financial interests, failed to grasp the importance of US Russia cooperation and mutual respect. Obama denigrated Russia as insignificant because of its GDP.   Russia intervened in failing states but gained little, straining the good relations mutual respect from earlier periods of its history and interactions with the US.  DJT tariff on all importers of Venezuelan oil affect China to which Venezuela sent 55% of its oil exports over half a million barrels a day. It also affects India and other importers. These importers say experts, will shift to Russian crude preferring it to heavy oil from Venezuela. This is a sore point for Americans affected by violent crime from Venezuelan gang members reflected in recent election results. This also affects the sense of safety in American neighborhoods and in towns across America. The Linken Riley Act was passed in the US Congress as action on this issue. People in China, India, and in Europe, and some even in Silicon Valley in the US fail to grasp the way this has affected communities across the US when after decades of deindustrialization and shipping jobs overseas by American business, these communities are affected by a sense of lack of safety in their neighborhoods. There is also a failure to grasp the harm done by migration of 7.7 million people from Venezuela, almost a fourth of the country's population, because of mismanagement of the economy and crippling inflation, and the failure of democratic institutions to function effectively. A failure to grasp the extent of the economic and human disaster in Venezuela. DJT says- "Venezuela has been very hostile to the US and the Freedoms which we espouse...Venezuela has "purposefully and deceitfully sent to the United States, undercover, tens of thousands of high level, and other, criminals".    ...

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One key point came in early Harris said she had a Plan for the economy, for an Opportunity Economy, Trump she said had none. Trump did not offer a plan. Harris spelled out a plan to tackle housing costs including a $6000 child tax credit and building 3 million new homes. Harris called higher tariffs, double than exist today, a way to increase costs for each family by $4000. She also pointed out that economists had confirmed that Trump tariff policies would lead to higher costs for Americans as they would be passed on by importers. Harris also offered a position of all of the above that included fracking where appropriate to increase oil supplies to bring down prices for American families, a key issue in Pennsylvania. On immigration and crime it was David Muir who reminded Trump that the FBI had stated crime was down in the country. On Ukraine, Afghanistan Harris clearly explained that US was not at war for the first time in one hundred years and was saving the US $300 million a day it cost for the war in Afghanistan. On Ukraine she said Biden-Harris had strengthened NATO and ties with allies, in an answer to David Muir's repeated question to Trump "Is it in the US interest for Russia to win the war in Ukraine?" To which Trump offered only a reply that suggested this was not important for him, disavowing US policy from 1900 to preserve the rule of law in international relations that no country should violate sovereignty of other nations through invasion. Among Republicans this is an issue with Mitch McConnell and others supporting Biden-Harris. ...

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This report in The South China Morning Post in Hong Kong, gives insights into the Chinese position in trade war with the U.S.  China has its own internal groups which support China being able to take a leadership role in world affairs. Xi Jinping made giving China a prominent role in the world a feature of his presidency. China  has this internal audience and its own sense that China's resurgence was won with hard work and cooperation, plus dedication of the Chinese people. In the past Japan and South Korea also used state subsidized industries, and subsidies to gain leadership in key business sectors involving high technology. China would see this state subsidies model as its own model of development. From this standpoint the U.S. demands on subsidies as unfair competition could be seen as changing a key part of its economic model.  Asking China to put everything in writing and show tangible proof of enforcement as the U.S. insisted in talks, was too much for the Chinese side. China said trust us to do this, and lift the tariffs based on our verbal assurances. The U.S. having seen decades of no progress on this point, wanted tangible proof before tariffs were lifted. Added to the demands on subsidies were the demands for no more of what the U.S. calls stealing of U.S. technology through forced transfer of technology by U.S. firms as a condition to operate in Chinese markets. With the U.S. lagging in 5G technology and Huawei ahead the issue resonates on the U.S. side. Add to this Mr. Trump's key voter base includes the former Democratic party supporting workers who have shifted to him because of trade agreements and policies of Clinton and Obama that hurt American workers through seemingly endless closure of manufacturing plants from Chinese competition.   ...

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This is an interview with Columbia University economic historian Adam Tooze about the international trade and economic issues brought about by globalization. The rapid emergence of China in manufacturing and overcapacity in steel has led to action on steel tariffs by president Trump. Tooze is typical of opinion that sees action by Trump not as limited action to level the playing field  as proposed by Trade Representative for the U.S., Robert Lighthizer, but as reckless move on trade.  Lyrarc.com shows articles from the WSJ and NYT showing how opinion got to this point in the U.S., on Robert Lighthizer's views that the U.S. was not facing a level playing field, and  on how trade has hurt communities across the U.S. a long distance away from Silicon Valley. President Trump's views reflect a different perspective that says the U.S. has to balance the favorable situation obtained by China and the European Union through moves of its own to protect U.S. interests. Political commentary that the U.S. was starting a trade war is not supported by the facts showing China's response as muted and a willingness by China to negotiate a balanced trading relationship as its trade surplus with the U.S. continues to grow. The trade surplus is so large that the Trump moves do not tell the real story. They are likely to be overshadowed by the increasing value of the U.S. dollar leading to a continued favorable situation for Chinese exports and a larger trade surplus in 2018, regardless of Mr. Trump's action.  Trump's moves are more significant in other areas- limiting China's access to advanced technologies, with the European Union also taking the same action. This is now the new field of competition for the major world economies. ...

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Supply chains are unraveling in many industries with the tariffs imposed by president Trump on imports from China, and renegotiated trade deals with South Korea and other countries. The growth in the value of foreign value added was possible with cuts in tariffs in the period after 1990 and the emergence of China as a low cost manufacturer with cheap labor. Foreign value added increased from 20% in 1990 to 30% in 2011. The impact on factory towns and communities in the U.S. of trade in which the U.S. manufacturing declined as it shifted to China resulted in the surge in support for president Trump. The tariffs war with China is an effort to correct this imbalance. The result is a shift in supply chains away from China in some industries and gradual shift in others. Rising wages in China had already resulted in early shifts and the the environmental costs adding to this trend. President Trump temporarily suspended a threatened imposition of duties of 25% on $325 billion of Chinese imports. A renegotiated Nafta agreement with Mexico for automobile production and determination of U.S. based content and wages was designed to reset the relationship with Mexico and the auto supply chain for production in Mexico. A threat of tariffs on European auto imports to the U.S. is set for a decision in November. The trade dispute between Japan and South Korea and threat of tariffs also shows the effect this is having in other countries. With the U.S. looking at its own interest in the global supply chain and its advantage or disadvantage, industries and companies are not free to make decisions based on which country offers the best arrangement and deal for manufacturing. Notions of competitive advantage in the tech race with China are affecting the way the U.S. and European nations are acting. ...

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President Trump announces a $ 16 billion farm aid program to help American farmers hurt by Chinese tariffs on American agricultural products. The money goes directly in payments to farmers. Mr. Trump sees the tariffs on Chinese products as paying for the program.

The Trump administration has blacklisted China's Huawei  and president Trump says that he considers it to be a threat to national security. He also sees it as a bargaining chip in future trade negotiations with the Chinese. China's president Xi sees his country's national sovereignty in how it sets its own economic policy and manages its economy as an issue. Both sides are far apart. Xi even cited the Long March led by Communist leader Mao to Yenan in the 1930's as an example of the fortitude needed by China in dealing with the American challenge.

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The view from Germany on Trump's economic plan and the need for changes by his advisors. DW.com's Wenkel says Trump needs to understand that 80% of job losses in recent years have come from not from globalization, but automation and higher productivity, rationalization. He says higher tariffs on Mexico could backfire.

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Neil Irwin in the NYT why the U.S. China Phase 1 Trade Agreement is more than a hill of soyabeans as he puts it, more than about all the soyabeans that the U.S. farmers can sell to China. China's economy was seeing the effect of U.S. tariffs. Additional tariffs to cover all imports from China to the U.S. would have worsened this. China avoided this by agreeing to Phase 1. The U.S. had looked for some enforcement mechanism based on China putting this down in a written agreement particularly for avoiding subsidies to state enterprises and improper access to U.S. advanced technologies. China's reluctance to do this led to Mr. Trump saying that China had reversed its position and Trump expanding the tariffs stage by stage. These issues are now set aside for Phase 2 still to be negotiated. Both sides taking what they could get. China relief from the threat of tariffs on all exports. The U.S. under Mr. Lighthizer's negotiating leadership retaining the enforcement idea through the tariffs that are still in place of 25% on half of China's exports to the U.S. The bonus for Mr. Trump is the goodwill China generates by agreeing to buy all the U.S. farmers can produce, farmers having not only stood behind Mr. Trump but also forming a key part of his support base. China will continue to compete in technological areas with the U.S., and the state enterprise model which worked for China as Mr. Xi tells visitors will continue. Phase 2 is just that Phase 2, when and if it can be negotiated between Trump with his negotiator Lighthizer and Xi with his negotiator Liu He. On key points neither side is budging. A key goal for Mr. Trump is to put the trade surplus China enjoys of $300 plus billion a year with the U.S. on a serious downward path, and bring so many of the jobs and manufacturing back home. On this trade data for 2019 and the plan for 2020 of both countries is clear. It should be down each year by 10-20% for the next few years, a major achievement of Mr. Lighthizer, who did the same with  Japan under president Reagan. ...