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WSJ shows how the daughter of David Rockefeller Neva Goodwin and her daughter Kaiser have led the fight against Exxon for not making the change to renewable energy from fossil fuels in time to avert climate change disasters now common worldwide. One of the major problems of the last 50 years since the Reagan administration in 1980 involve oil wealth in the Middle East used to finance wars and US involvement in these wars in Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Libya, Yemen. It haunts us to this day with conflict in the Red Sea and Persian Gulf. This has its origins with John D. Rockefeller  who started the oil company Standard Oil in the 1870's in Cleveland, Ohio, now called Exxon in the US and Esso overseas. A bigger problem has emerged in recent years that remained unnoticed till about 2006 when David Rockefeller, the grandson of John D. Rockefeller, met with the head of Exxon for lunch to ask why Exxon was not doing more to invest in green energy and increase awareness of the damage to the environment by fossil fuels. This was the beginning of the dawning realization of the signs of climate change so prevalent 20 years later today in wildfires, drought, extreme heat and fast floods worldwide.   Today's Exxon is a descendent of the companies John D. Rockefeller (Library of Congress site) created by the 1880's to refine oil which he turned into a monopoly by deals with railroad companies to reduce cost of product. In 1888 he created the Anglo American Oil Company later called Esso which is a phonetic rendition of S and O in Standard Oil, which in 1972 was changed to Exxon. Many of the crises of this century have their origins in the activities of Esso and British oil companies in Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia and the wars that wasted trillions of dollars in American resources through the administrations of Reagan, Bush, Clinton and Obama have their origins in the activities of oil companies, and the governments of these countries using oil financed wealth for wars that involved the US. Huge mistakes that combined with neglect of manufacturing the lifeblood of any economy have led to the gradual decline of the US, being reversed for the first time with the decisive and complete shift made by president Biden so that investments of trillions of dollars can be made to revive the strength of the US economy and the wellbeing of its people. ...

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"The economy is performing well, and the near term prospects are good" says Mark Zandi of Moody's, in his speech on the US economic outlook at an event of the National Economists Club. He is optimistic about the economy and sees moderating inflation and higher consumer confidence. Investments in the CHIPS act and the Inflation Reduction Act in science, in chip manufacturing, in renewable energy manufacturing, other investments in infrastructure, he sees as building a stronger economy with job creation and improved potential for growth. Oil prices could pose a risk. Increased supplies of US oil, and stable production by the Saudis are needed for stable oil prices after recent turmoil in the Middle East.

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A coordinated release of petroleum reserves from the International Energy Agency and 30 participating countries is planned in the event something like the attack on Saudi oil facilities happens. About 5% of the worlds oil supplies were put out in the attack. If 7% are lost then the IEA would step in to call for release of petroleum reserves of individual countries. As of July 2019 1.5 billion barrels of oil are in storage in emergency reserves. U.S. SPR reserves are estimated at 644 million barrels and the figures are 100 million barrels for each of Germany, Japan and France, and China at 344 million barrels. These man made caverns are as long as 2000 feet.

The last time this release happened was in 2011 after the Libyan war disruptions. 

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After OPEC says in a joint decision that it will stick to strictly followin quotas set earlier this year which would mean a modest drop in production, Saudi officials spread the word that they will continue to pump out as much oil as the world needs. So what is the end result? The Saudis are saying they went along yet they will continue to pump oil like before. Part of the reason is the Saudi belief in their own argument that with high prices the world economy would be further affected resuklting in a possible collapse of demand and of prices something it seeks to avoid and is in everybody's interest. This makes sense if one looks at the deep financial crisis facing the US and which has ripples around the world, most recently in financial mmarkets the collapse of Fannie Mae and Freddie and the possible collapse or sale of Lehman Brothers. And as U.S. elections are up in a few weeks the Saudis do not want to anything that can be interpreted one way or the other, and also a wait and see attitude because a lot of information about the US and world economy is not yet in....

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U.S. companies have decided to wait out the conflict in Libya till a clear picture emerges. Mufson gives a good account of the history of Libya's tumultuous relationships with western oil companies over 3 decades. Nason Saleri, former head of reservoir management at Saudi Aramco, now head of Houston based Quantum Reservoir Impact, says oil companies have decided not to get involved until the situation stabilizes. Oil companies such as ConocoPhillips attended a meeting of the U.S.-Libya Business Council where representatives of the Benghazi based coalition presented. Ali Tarhouni, leading economic policymaker for the Benghazi coalition says oil contracts will be honored. Saleri says western oil companies are preparing for the time when a new government takes charge in Libya after the end of the Ghadafi regime. His view is that once things settle down and a new government is in charge he sees the potential of enhancing the percentage of oil from known reservoirs. The reserves are there in Libya to stabilize production to earlier levels and to increase it says Saleri....

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The changes taking place in Saudi Arabia under Prince Mohamad Bin Salman are the subject of this article from Prof. Mohsin Khan of Jindal Global University. Similar changes were initiated earlier under MBZ Mohamad Bin Zayad in the UAE which inspired the changes in Saudi Arabia. The effects are easy to see for Upward Mobility, Diversity, the economy, the relations with the EU and the US and other countries, the shift away from oil to renewables, women's participation in the workplace, and education in science and technology. During the last 50 years the wars in the Middle East have wasted resources in unimaginable ways, human and in trillions of dollars that could have improved the quality of life and ease of living of people. The result is that like Britain in the nineteenth century the US in the 21st shows no interest in Afghanistan or regions of South Asia which have scattered its resources. The shift now is to the seas and the region that covers the west coast of Africa through the Indian Ocean to the Pacific past Indonesia to Japan and the Hawaiian islands, the western coast of the US- called the Indo-Pacific. With the US, India, Australia, and Japan committed to freedom of navigation and international law in the region. It is all about investment, new supply chains, trade and growth, science and technology. And the UAE, Saudi now fit in within this larger framework, along with the European Union, and other countries in this region. ...

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Norway has stepped up to meet Europe's need for oil and gas. About one third of the gas consumed in Europe comes from Norway. After the war started Norway increased gas exports by 8% in 0223 shipping more of it by undersea pipelines to Northern Europe. This increased oil and gas exports from $25 billion in 2021 to $125 billion in 2022. Like Saudi Arabia the government owns not only the oil and gas fields but also has large stakes in the companies that extract oil and gas. For a small country bordering Russia with 5.5 million people this put it in a higher status to meet Europe's plea for energy so that it could heat homes and would not have to shut down some of its industrial capacity. And it left no stone unturned to do this. Petoro CEO Kristin Kragseth says that we knew that Norway was always important but we did'nt realize how much. Petoro made $50 billion in 2022 almost three times what it made in 2021. Another of Norway's oil companies Equinor made $75 billion in adjusted earnings in 2022. Political sentiment has shifted too so that climate change that was a priority still is but Norway is willing to increase production for a few years to meet needs of Europe.     ...

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How will the rise of renewables solar, wind and hydropower, nuclear change the demand and supply of oil and gas by 2030? How will this affect producers such as Russia, Saudis/UAE, and the US? And how will it affect China and India and the US? This question is answered by the new IEA forecast model that shows the demand at 105 million barrels a day in 2030, and supply at 113 million barrels a day, showing that renewable will have increased by 2030 to produce an oversupply of oil and gas. After 2031 this gap will widen and grow so that oil and gas prices will drop. This will accelerate the growth of India and China. Indian prime minister Modi tells people in towns across the country that the government will help people to put solar panels on homes so that instead of paying an oil and gas bill the energy generated from solar and added to the grid will give them a check every month to add to income.

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This NYT report looks at the transformation of Saudi Arabia with the investment projects of Prince Mohammad bin Salman who leads the country in modernization. In the past much of the oil money going from US, EU, China and India went into wars in the Middle East, Salman has focused on development. using the funding opportunities that need to taken to develop the region, funding which will no longer be there after the shift to renewal energy by 2035. The price tags are extravagant the coastal city and historic district of Jeddah remodeled $20 billion. New center of culture Diriyah near Riyadh, $63 billion. Futuristic city Neom. Red Sea tourism projects. 

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Iran Ceasefire shaky May 11 2026 with no willingness on the part of IRGC Iran (Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps) to send all nuclear materials out of the country. Past experience has shaken American confidence in IRGC Iran's willingness to give up nuclear weapons development. Under president Obama some nuclear materials were sent to Russia, some left inside Iran which were after an agreement used by IRGC Iran to develop weapons grade enriched uranium, putting the situation back to where America started before the agreement. This is behind the DJT Republican administration's effort to get all nuclear materials out of Iran. This has wasted another decade for Iran, diverting resources needed for improving standards of living and cost of living to the weapons programs. The result is internal protests that were widespread in Iran including the middle class, not just students. So that today Iranian people are divided on the issue whether Iran should against all prevailing Middle Eastern and World opinion go for a nuclear weapon. The situation of clandestine development in North Korea and Pakistan of nuclear weapons is not existent today as the US is monitoring it constantly. Israel sees these weapons programs in Iran as a threat to its existence close to its borders in Lebanon and Iraq, which makes it unlikely that clandestine development is possible for nuclear weapons development anywhere in the Middle East. The UAE has also shifted its stance in favor of the US, Saudis want assurances, and India, Pakistan Egypt are in different ways seeking a denuclearized Middle East. This means the American DJT administration is NOT ALONE on this issue as the media in the US and Europe are presenting. Germany's Wadephul and Merz are closer to US thinking on this issue than the media says. Macron and Starmer are at popularity of less than 20% in France and the UK and do not reflect the opinion in France and Britain, and in Europe on this issue. In this sense the US is doing this for a safer world, for China, India, Brazil and EU, all the nations in the poorest parts of the world in Africa, Asia. These poorest nations which are bearing the brunt of this obsession with nuclear weapons development by IRGC Iran in a Middle East torn by 5 decades of wars from Kabul to Damascus, Baghdad to Tehran, by IRGC Iran (Revolutionary Guard Corps), as these poor nations confront lack of oil and fertilizer supplies. It does not come at a good time for even the largest nations about 3 billion people in China, India and Indonesia, Egypt which are suffering from the effects of oil shortages and fertilizer shortages when possibly at most about 40 of 90 million people in Iran support weapons programs, all others in Iran seeking a way out for better standards of living and living at peace with neighbors and the world. In that peacetime Middle East the Palestinian people could find solutions like the Irish people with the goodwill of all neighbors. ...

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A steady decline in the price of Brent crude from $115 to $92 in the period from June to October 2014. Slow or no economic growth in Europe, and declining growth in China was the main reason. A cut in oil price by Saudi Arabia in September with lack of coordination in OPEC to control supplies when prices are declining, and increasing supplies from the U.S., provided additional basis for price declines. This price decline comes as large energy companies invested heavily in mega-projects to bring more oil supplies when prices were up to $128 by mid-2012. Consulting company EY estimate is that there are 163 such mega projects worth $1.1 trillion underway, most behind schedule and over budget. The projects were based on oil prices being over $100. Oil field development costs are increasing rapidly. Douglas Westwood, a consulting firm, estimate is that productivity of upstream capital spending has fallen by a factor of 5 since 2000, declining by 5% a year, as oilfield equipment and services demand exceeds supply. Greater technological sophistication also adds to cost such as Shell's Nobel Bully platform for deep sea drilling. See link- Noble Bully. Oil majors are now cutting spending, and some planned big projects are on hold. About $300 billion in assets may be up for sale. Shell plans to cut spending by 20% in 2014, Exxon and Chevron 5-6%. Shale oil projects in America need about $57 to be profitable with an internal rate of return of 10%, by one estimate. Yet this is an average and does not reflect differing producer costs. This estimate does not reflect the high cost producers, some of whom need closer to $110....

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The increased oil supply in the Middle East will come largely from Saudi Arabia and Iraq by 2015. By 2020 the increased oil supply from Iraq will surpass increased Saudi production, when compared with 2009, according to the International Energy Agency. Iraqi production is currrently 2.7 million barrels a day. This jumps significantly in coming years. JBC Energy expects Iraqi oil output to increase to about 8 million barrels a day by 2020. This is a result of modernization and participation of foreign oil companies in the Iraqi oil industry. Comparitively Libyan output shows only a small increase.

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According to an investigation by a congressional subcommittee70% of all trading in West Texas Intermediate crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange is by speculative traders compared to 37% in 2000. The subcommitte findings are based on data obtained from federal commodity futures regulators. So are the Saudis right that speculators in futures trading ar playing a big part in the oil price increases or is the administration position correct that this is not a factor at all? This provides backing to the Saudi position, the IMF position and the position of McCain and Obama, the 2 presidential candidates. And there are calls to close a loophole that prevents oversight by the government over this kind of trading.

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Straits of Hormuz 21 miles wide at its narrowest point in the Gulf where Iran faces Oman and Saudi Arabia.  Hormuz waterway that carries 90% of Iranian oil exports to China, 82% of all Asian oil imports, could be disrupted but it is very unlikely because of the $67 billion in oil exports from Iran according to its central bank, 90% of these oil exports going through Hormuz waterway go to China. It would be to unfund it's own oil based economy and affect China not the US or Germany. Germany gets most of its oil supplies from Norway, US and other sources, US is self sufficient after shale oil production surge.

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Achievements of Elvira Nabiullina as central bank chief in Russia since 2013 are the reducing of US dollar reserves from 40% to 11%of $600 billion in Russian reserves shifting to hold most of its reserves in euros, gold or renminbi Chinese currency. She also implemented the alternative to SWIFT the global bank messaging system, and changed the payments infrastructure to process credit card transactions in the country so departure of Visa and Mastercard had minimal effect.

In this way this highly respected banker has protected Russia's economy from western sanctions, says NYT. She is trusted by president Putin and was adviser to Putin in 2012, minister of economic development before that when Putin was prime minister. When Russia suffered an economic crisis in 2014 as oil prices fell sharply and Saudis increased oil production, the ruble fell. Nabiullina increased rates to 17%, and the economy shrank till it stabilized with inflation down to 4% by 2017.

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The Saudi oil company is building a 400,000 barrel a day refinery at Jubail in the Persian Gulf in a collaboration with Total S.A. at a cost of $10 billion. Its also building a refinery in collaboration with Conoco on the Red Sea side of the Arabian peninsula which will be in production in 2013. This is part of the Saudi effort to buil 4 large refineries in Saudi Arabia.

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In this WSJ column Russell Mead describes the Middle East as an opportunity when in reality it has done serious damage to the US and the European Union. With the shift to renewable energy and localized sources for natural gas and oil within EU and the US, the Middle East may no longer be relevant to the US and Europe. Afghanistan which has cost so much for the US and Europe in trillions of dollars that could have been invested in badly needed infrastructure is an extension of the Middle East. Iran is also part of the Middle East. These reserves of oil and gas in countries deeply imbedded with thinking and policy against modernization are more risk than opportunity for the US and European Union. The US and European Union need to look to bringing back manufacturing and renewing supply chains with India and Vietnam, the rest of South East Asia as an opportunity and shift mightily to renewables to fight climate change. This is the opportunity facing the US and the EU today. In a sense the chapter that started with the efforts of British oil companies in Iran in 1900 and Franklin Roosevelt's meeting with the Saudi King on an American ship during World War II is now coming to its closing and a new chapter has to be written on renewables and rebuilding US and EU strength in manufacturing in alliance with India and Vietnam, rest of South East Asia in what is called the Indo-Pacific.  ...

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The Saudi increase production but only by a modest amount of 300,000 barrels a day. President Bush meets the Saudi king in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and with Al Naimi, the Saudi oil minister. Pressure is increasing in Congress as some Democrats are calling for sanctions against the Saudi government. The Saudi position is that they will increase production only if the refineries demand it. Odd position because refineries are not going to increase demand as long as they have to pay higer prices for crude oil and their margins are shrinking from higher oil prices- this is true of the independent refiners like Valero and Tesoro.

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International Energy Agency estimates show the U.S. surpassing Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil producer by 2020 because of the boom in shale oil production. The estimates are for 11.1 million barrels a day from the U.S. in 2020.

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President Macron of France puts forward the basic building blocks for an agreement to reduce tensions with Iran. In a speech to the General Assembly of the United Nations he says that there should be negotiations between Iran, its regional neighbors, the U.S. , European countries and China. The Obama period nuclear deal of 2015 failed because of a lack of a comprehensive settlement and including Iran's neighbors in the region. Macron pointed out that the U.S. approach under president Trump of "maximum pressure" with tighter economic sanctions has produced a response from Iran of maximum pressure on its neighbors, including the attack on Saudi oil facilities with drones that took out half of the Saudi oil supplies. Macron put forward five issues for negpotiations to focus on: certaity that Iran never acquires nuclear weapons, solution to the Yemen civil war, a regional security plan that addresses other conflicts, ensuring security of maritime navigation especially in Straits of Hormuz, lifting of economic sanctions. He pointed out that "today we have a risk of serious conflict based on miscalculation and disproportionate responses." Mr. Trump even alluded to this when he told reporters after the dismissal of John Bolton as National Security Adviser, saying Bolton made Trump look like a voice of moderation. A lot depends on who are the advisers and whether moderation is exercised on all sides.  Macron, Merkel and Britain's prime minister Johnson met with Rouhani on the sidelines of the UN meetings to encourage dialogue. Countries likely to be severely affected by oil shutoff through the Straits of Hormuz are Japan, South Korea, India and China, and are quietly pushing for an easing of tensions.  ...

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A anti-corruption campaign in Saudi Arabia that led to settlements reaching $106 billion and a series of prosecutions in 2017, as reported in the WSJ. The government says this was done to ensure transparency, and a better business environment.  The effort was unusual compared to anti-corruption efforts in other countries such as China because it was conducted with the use of the Ritz Carlton and the settlements made with the most affluent Saudis, as covered in the WSJ. It happened as the Saudi government needed to raise funds including through sale in IPO of state assets such as the Saudi oil company Aramco. The Aramco IPO did not take place. Saudis lost oil revenue with the collapse of negotiations to set oil prices, and the lack of cooperation from Russia.