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European Union countries, Britain and the US face the risk of a resurgence of coronavirus through the Delta variant and other variants. The Delta variant detected in India is 40% to 80% more transmissible than the Alpha variant detected in the UK, with the Alpha variant 50% more transmissible than the original coronavirus that originated in Wuhan.    Virologists in Italy feel they are flying blind at this time because of the lack of genetic sequencing in Italy, Spain, France and across most European Union countries. The UK has done genetic sequencing on 27% of recent covid positive tests. The figure drops to 1% for Italy and is tiny for most of the EU countries including Spain and France. Without genetic sequencing it is hard to predict and take steps. Another problem in the EU is that the southern economies Spain, Portugal, Greece, Italy, Croatia are dependent on summer tourism for the economy. The UK economy can handle a delay to a full opening for 6 weeks without serious impact to the economy, says WSJ. Southern European economies can afford only short delays to full reopening. Croatia acted as a door to spread of coronavirus into central Europe when Germans and Austrians went to vacation spots in Croatia in summer 2020. This situation could be happening again in 2020 with British and other tourists visiting vacation areas in Portugal, and Germans visiting Greece and other summer tourism spots. Portugal's national health institute says the Delta variant represents 60% of new cases in the area around Lisbon based on early data. The government of Portugal is facing criticism for letting a Champions League soccer final to take place in Porto, Portugal between two English teams. Thousands of English fans watched the game at the stadium. Other problems are in relaxing of mask rules in France and Italy, last week in France and in the coming week in Italy. French nightclubs open July 9 without mask requirement. Germany is maintaining some social distancing measures and this includes mandating medical masks in closed public spaces and on public transport. Half of French, Italians, Germans are vaccinated and quarter fully vaccinated. Yet the gaps of unvaccinated people is large enough to cause serious concern of another wave. The relaxation of mask rules- the entire stadium in Budapest was packed for a recent game between Hungary and Italy for a soccer Euro 2021 game with no masks to be seen. Stadiums played a key role for the spread of the original coronavirus in Italy with a game in Bergamo, Italy, in the area near Milan. All this makes health officials concerned about the risks of still another wave of the coronavirus.   ...

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Government data show that the German GDP declined by 0.5% in the thrid quarter after declining 0.4% in the second quarter. IMF predicts GDP decline of 0.8% in 2009. Germany's recession look like the worst in Europe except for the UK which has many of the same problems as the US economy. Germany's housing market has seen prices grow by almost zero in the last 10 years and German consumers are not in debt so Germany felt fairly immune to the troubles facing the US and the UK and Spain. But Germany is a big exporter and it has become more dependent on exports in the last 10 years. Exports account for 41% of GDP and CHina sucked up alot of machinery exports from Germany and China is in the midst of a drastic slowdown. In fact for the first time China is seeing a decline in monthly electricity output. And China's GDP growth rate may go from 12% to the range of somewhere around 6% in 2009, considering that Chinese export factories are closing down as the USA its main export market is seeing a rapid slowdown. Its already reached 9% and the slowdown is just beginning as the US market is also at the beginning of its slowdown. As the US market declines further in 2009 China's export factories will face a further decline in orders. Comparing the US at 10%, Japan at 20% and Germany at 41% of GDP one can see how heavily dependent the Germans have become on exports, especially with Asia's booming economies sucking up German exports. New orders for German goods declined by 18% from their peak in November 2007. And this is just the beginnning. So German unemployment is expected to increase. Its true that German banks invested heavily in mortgage related securities and other risky assets abroad, and the international financial crisis has led to a bailout fund of 500 billion euros setup by the German government. But Bundesbank figures show that what is causing the drastic contraction is the drop in investment spending as loan demand has dropped. ...

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The ECB's rate increase in March 2011, the first since 2009. Euro-zone inflation comes in at 2.4% in February 2011 and producer price inflation at 6.1% for January. Labor market shortages are being seen in Germany as the German economy sees higher job growth.

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Japan's acute shortage of labor has even spread to the government sector says this report in DW.com. Japan's aging population means a growing need for immigrants from Vietnam and other countries. Nursing, elderly care had shortages which have spread to construction and delivery business, taxis, forestry companies and train operators. Many jobs remain unfilled. It is a situation the US may also experience in a few years as it is feeling the effects of shortages of workers in industries such as hospitality. NK Logisitics Research estimate is that 34% of goods will remain undelivered by 2030 because of lack of transport workers, that is 940 million tons of goods undelivered every year. Already taxi drivers have shrunk by 40% from the peak in 2009. Japan's immigration policy planned for an influx of 345,000 skilled workers over 5 years in 2019 but this came a bit late as the pandemic delayed the influx. Now it has a new urgency. Even with the influx of new immigrants Germany has 1.6 million jobs unfilled according to DW.com citing research in an accompanying article on German workers in today's Lyrarc.com. The US needs an organized program of immigration to attract foreign workers yet the influx from Venezuela of mostly middle class educated people into the US through  events no one had foreseen or expected may years from now be seen as meeting the needs of sectors in the American economy that needs good workers, in the same way that Japan and Germany see their economies and worker shortages. ...

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German industry is finally accepting the government's shift out of cheap Russian energy. Robert Habeck Economy Minister proposed a plan for putting a cap on domestic heating and a gas incentivizing scheme for industry. Under the scheme industrial customers who reduce gas consumption get paid by the government. The head of the Federation of German Industries Siegfried Russwurm, says every kilowatt hour counts, we need to reduce gas consumption as much as possible." The use of coal is temporary, the renewable energy goals are more urgent than ever and phase out of coal by 2030 will still take place says VDMA,  the German mechanical Engineering association.

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Mexico does 3 tests per 100,000 people very low compared to other countries. Reasons range from cost cutting to a push for herd immunity. Instead Mexico has pushed through deep cost cutting. The U.S. has 178 tests per 100,000 in comparison. This leaves Mexico running blind as it has reopened the economy. The government says half of Mexicans work in the informal economy and the economy needs to remain open. Not doing testing means there is less information on fighting the virus in the way it was done in Italy, Spain, UK, France and Germany. Other countries with a large informal economy are doing as getting as many as 500,000  samples a day for tests. Mexico now has 360,000 cases and its fatality rate is now approaching that of the UK.

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Rachel Reeves is Shadow Chancellor in Britain, that is a way of saying Finance Minister when Labor currently in the Opposition forms a new government. Speaking at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington DC she says how Labour will bring about a transformation of Britain's economy with ambitions that borrows from and matches what Biden is doing in the US, and Scholz in Germany. This is very different from anything Britain has seen in its history. The Labour government of Clement Attlee made some institutional changes such as setting up the Bank of England as Britain's central bank in 1946, creating the structures that would help workers and families and the British economy recover from the war, and declaring in parliament that Britain would leave India by June 1948. Blair's response to the Thatcher government did not rival the changes brought by Attlee by any comparison. What Britain following the US is facing today is an FDR or Attlee moment because of the scale of changes needed to create an American or British economy that matches the aspirations of the people, and creating a meaningful role in the world economy and supply chains. Investments have to be made in public goods such as renewable energy, health, education and transportation infrastructure that have no parallel in history including that of FDR or Attlee. Biden is investing on a scale that is designed to overcome two decades of neglect of infrastructure and public goods such as education, health care, and public services. The same is true for Britain. The same is true for Germany and for the European Union.   ...

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Rachel Reeves plan to cut disability benefits was very unpopular with Labor voters. You.Gov poll showing Reform UK Nigel Farage party winning more seats than Labor was the last straw. As a public defender Keir Starmer was a lawyer for the Crown, and lacked the confidence to try to understand macroeconomics delegating it to Rachel Reeves. Starmer made the kind of decision that Scholz made that led to disaster for Scholz in Germany. He promised the voters to invest in the economy yet gave the finance minister post to Christian Lindner of the Free Democrats who was openly blocking every move to invest in Germany. Starmer was making the same mistake in UK having Rachel Reeves block every effort for commonsense and honest decisionmaking. DJT in the US is not the old conservative Republican he is commonsense and straightforward. Starmer could not simply cut disability and other benefits after 15 years of Consevatives austerity budget. DJT's cuts come after liberal some could say overspending by 4 years of Biden, so that Labor had to think carefully.  Nigel Farage of UK was simply going to use Reeves cuts to appeal to Labor voters, and to move to show he would support working class voters in different ways, which is why You-gov showed him beating Labor last week. Reeves would prove a disaster waiting to happen for Labor that it did not need particularly as Farage does not have the grasp of the economy that DJT with Bessent at Treasury and Powell at Fed has. ...

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One of the Russia's goals was to form a rival economic bloc of former soviet republics. Instead the Ukraine invasion has led to disastrous results for the economies of this region which are interconnected. Research from the World Bank shows the Russian economy declining by 11% and with further economic impact upto 25%, Ukraine's economy by 45%, former soviet republics like Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyz Republic, by 30% because of loss of remittances and the fallout from the economic effects on Russia. Belarus would see its economy shrink by 30%, Moldova by 30%, according to the World Bank. 

The miscalculations of all sides from leadership in Russia to that of Merkel in Germany, and the invasion itself, is putting severe economic losses on this part of Europe. Many of these economies will have to take loans from the IMF and the World Bank to remain solvent. 

 

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Better management of the economy has sustained Russian economic growth in past crises such as in 2008 when oil prices collapsed. Russian central bank chief Nabiullina has helped steer the economy holding US dollar reserves to just 11% the rest of $600 billion reserves in renminbi, euros and gold. Yet the war in Ukraine has introduced limits. With labor shortages and the technological isolation the war in Ukraine is setting new limits on economic growth, says the WSJ. Going forward the limit is about 0.9% economic growth a year. Before 2008 the Russian economy growth was at 7% growth a year, it dropped to 3.5% after the invasion of Crimea in 2014. With China facing deflationary trends, little recovery in growth, this shows that geopolitical tensions are changing the prospects of important economies. With globalization dimming the prospects of Singapore and UK have suffered. The US is investing in growth, and Germany is following the US model.

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Even with an economy that is considered advanced Germany lags behind in social and education mobility. From one generation to the next disadvantages are passed on for less educated lower income people, and a person from lower income or less educational background is more likely to see children not getting a university education.

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Friedman says Putin acted emotionally by letting impulsive reaction to the anti-Russian feelings in western Ukraine determine Russian policy following the collapse of the Yakunovych government. The months long Russian response in Crimea and eastern Ukraine may have secured Russian pride at a large cost. This includes the damage to the relationship with Germany, seting the EU on a path to look for other sources of energy to reduce dependence on Russian gas, a natural gas deal with China in which the price was kept "a secret" and may have provided China with a bargaining edge considering the timing of the negotiations. The most severe impact is in the loss of confidence within Russia, reminding the Putin administration that though the economy has grown in the Putin years it is still fragile and connected to the global economy. The capital outflows of the magnitude of $160 billion at a time of high inflation and sharply slowing growth actually put at risk the gains Putin and Russia made in the last decade, and risk the future agenda to improve the standard of living of the Russian people eyond the major cities. Putin's own assessment would eventually be closer to that of Alexei Kudrin. Kudrin, finance minister in Putin's previous term, correctly saw the dangers of impulsive policy concentrated in one figure, and the suppression of other voices including the opposition needed for Russia to be governed in a manner similiar to western Europe, to attain a similiar level of economic progress and standards of living. In today's global economy even the U.S., France, UK and states inside Germany need foreign investment for jobs, new ideas and technology, and the opinion expressed on media television and internet shapes investor sentiment to a larger degree than fully understood....

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In new developments German chancellor Scholz visits London and European Union president Von der Leyen visits Bucha and Kviv in Ukraine. Von Der Leyen is accompanied by Joseph Borell, the EU commissioner for foreign and security affairs. For the first time the European Union offers membership in the EU to Ukraine. In handing a document with a questionnairre to Ukraine president Zelensky she says- "This is where your path towards the European Union begins." Adding "It will not be, as usual, a matter of years, but rather a matter of weeks" to complete this step. The questionairre forms the basis of an opionion she said that gets passed on to the European Council this summer. Ukraine now becomes the first country in Europe to have fought a war and suffered from millions of refugees just to join the European Union. It also shows how much has changed since Angela Merkel left office with her policies that offered Ukraine no such prospect even as it integrated the German economy with the Russian economy and China's economy during 4 terms in office. Leyen said "Ukraine is marching towards a European future." Chancellor Scholz addressed the German parliament after the invasion and hundreds of thousands of people turned out in Berlin that day.  Europe is voting with its emotions having been completely shaken by this experience. Leyen writes " It was important to start my visit in Bucha. Because in Bucha our humanity was shattered." ...

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Germany reaches daily coronavirus cases of 20,000 on November 4, with total 600,000 cases for a population of 83 million people. France reached 40,000 daily cases. Both countries are in a national lockdown for the second wave of coronavirus which is different from the first in that some parts of the economy remain open.

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Michel Sapin faces the challenge of convincing the EU and Germany that France should get more leeway for tax cuts and other measures to boost the economy and lower unemployment. He has been through difficult situations before when following approval of the Maastricht Treaty the French Franc came under speculative attacks by investors betting France could not implement the Treaty. At the time he was finance minister in the Mitterand government. As labor minister since 2012, Sapin implemented Hollande promises in the elections- for government sponsored jobs for young people, creating contracts to bind young and older workers in the workplace, and reform of professional training schemes.

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The efforts in Alsace on the border between Germay and France to make the European experiment work with two systems, cultural experiences and lifestyles. This happens at a time of high unemployment in French Alsace and many job openings in German Alsace for German speaking people of Alsace. The debate in France is underway on what things need to change for the French system to work taking into account cultures and different national experience. A keen awareness on both sides of the border- in German Emmendingen and French Selestat- that the European experiment works best when people on both sides of the border do well. It is also a microcosm of the debate underway in the larger European society with different cultures in Northern and Southern European countries, with a focus on improving competitiveness while respecting and not denigrating cultural differences. After reunification Germany faced high unemployment and the costs of unification, and made changes in the economy, with close cooperation between business, universities and the government. It is often forgotten that Germany's low unemployment took years to achieve. A similiar process is in its early stages in France....

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US - EU Trade Agreement with 15% tariff on EU imports to the US and $750 billion in US exports over 3 years of LNG, oil and gas, semiconductors etc. Including military purchases. EU would invest $650 billion in the US.  Aircraft and their components, particular chemicals, semiconductor equipment, some agricultural products looked set to be exempted from the new tariffs placed by the US on EU imports into US. To even the playing field where German and Japanese cars had a free ride into the American market since 1980, 15% tariffs lower than the 24-25% proposed tariff will be place on German cars. Business in the US sees this as a least bad outcome says WSJ. Yet this ignores that the US gave special privileges to Japanese and American car makers to export into the US since 1980 with no corresponding benefit to the US in other industries or to the US auto industry. This gives the US industries and the US science and technologies opportunities to get back into the game of exporting, opportunities that the US gave to Europe and Japan since 1960. It also strengthens the US economy by helping restore the US as the industrial power it was from 1920-1980.  ...

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Starmer's visit to China and the result being halving of tariffs- it comes 8 years after Theresa May's visit 2018.  Starmer is following his intution  to set an independent course for Brtian's foreign policy. It makes sense as the US is using common sense in coming back to basics, to getting its own hemisphere policies right. How could there be a situation like that in Venezuela and Mexico as with the drug cartels operating as states within states- what would Teddy Roosevelt say about this? So we now have the Monroe Doctrine, the return of the Panama Canal, the restructuring of the oil industry in Venezuela, and other action. This also means Canada and UK, India, European Union can pursue policies that are common sense. It means for Britain a new openness with China after 8 years inward looking with Austerity, Brexit and Covid. For a smaller economy it makes sense for Britain to have agreements on trade as it signed with India, and now with China. Carney, Starmer and soon Merz will have worked out relations with China on trade and exchanges. For Europe and the US over concentration of making goods in China can be corrected while still engaging with China. For the EU the visits Germany's Merz made to the kite festival an India and Leyen/Costa of the EU following up with trade agreements are all part of common sense to not just reduce over concentration in China, but also to build a new partnership with India to form a 2 billion people market. All of which happened suddenly as European nations realized how to work out new arrangements following the war with Russia over Ukraine and China's support for Russia, taking up the cues from DJT common sense action in its backyard. "I'm a pragmatist, a British pragmatist, applying common sense," the prime minister tells BBC on the plane and says he wants to "make Britain face outwards again."  ...

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Merkel's leadership as Germany goes through the economic crisis. There is not much enthusiasm for further reforms among the Social Democrats or the Christian Democrats. Other than raising the retirement age to 67, the mood is not for any changes in that direction. The economy will contract by 6.1% but Merkel's decision is not to go in for a big stimulus under pressure from the US, and instead stay with the status quo combined with help to workers for unemployment benefits and for retention of workers by companies. As elections approach Merkel is considered favorably, and according to a recent poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen nearly 60% are satisfied with the grand coalition of the CDU and the SPD, 78% think Ms Merkel has done well as chancellor, and 58% want her to remain on the job. Actually Merkel's popularity is behind the CDU's prospects, the CDU itself is popular among only 35% of voters. Her analytical habits from her training as a physicist show in the way she is governing, which is thoughtful, and connects well with voters. Merkel benefits from the reduction in unemployment. Unemployment fell from around nearly 5 million in 2005 to around 3 million in 2008. The risk is that Merkel's popularity may be affected by an increase in unemployment to 5.1 million from the averaage of 3.3 million in 2008, according to an OECD estimate. Merkel stands behind a German response to the crisis which is to support the priciples of a social-market economy, make unemployment as least painful as possible to the jobless, to keep every job that can be saved in the nonfinancial sector with a 115 billion euro "Germany fund" providing guarantees and credits to companies that are in trouble because of the credit crisis. Stimulus packages of 64 billion euros supported the auto industry with subsidies to car buyers, and subsidies to keep workers intheir jobs. The idea was to come up with a German version of the response to the crisis by balancing the need to respond based on German conditions, and the concerns for inflation and the budget deficit, that is shared by most Germans. THe vision offered by Merkel is that of a physicist daughter of a protestant minister in East Germany, who is low on the rhetoric and good on substance, and willing to make decisions based on careful study and discernment rather than ideology, without sharp swings in any direction. Her vision comes from her days as environment minister, which is quietly pushing Germany into the forefront of countries developing renewable energy, moving ahead in energy efficiency, with anational goal of cutting emissions by 40% by 2020. The other areas are immigration and education, both key to the future of Germany because of the huge demographic change happening there. She has afamily minister Ursula von der Leyden, who introduced "parents pay", a14 month stipend for parents of newborn children linked to salaries, and to to improve daycare by providing places for 35% of children aged three or less by 2013. And Merkel has approved 18 billion euros of additional funding for research and universities. Says Leyden Merkel has made "daycare" an acceptable term in the CDU, and made Germans accept that they are an immigration country. Which tells you that you have to look closely to find the reasons for Merkel's popularity, which does not carry the rhetoric of an Obama, but is just as effective in German conditions. There are deepseated demographic changes going on in German society, which require a cultural change, and change in mindset, such as that for daycare, immigration, and blending the best of the old in the social market economy with the new like the changes in the educational system. The Economist says that in big cities today nearly half of the children under 15 are immigrants or their children and grandchildren, who are more likely to be poorer, unemployed and with less education. ...

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This video report in DW.com shows a Romanian worker shortage of 500,000 workers. During the early postwar period and for many years following that Romanians immigrated to Germany looking for work. Workers from Sri Lanka, India and Pakistan, Philippines are filling the need for foreign workers in the Romanian economy which is growing since it joined the European Union.

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The economy, wages and cost of living, the failures in infrastructure and at Deutsche Bahn, migration or remigration are issues in Germany. During periods when there are Christmas market attacks in recent years  remigration has emerged as an issue. Migration is no longer the issue in Germany as it was during high levels of migration under Merkel following the wars in Syria and Iraq, unrest in North African countries such as Tunisia with Arab Spring.  The policies of CDU's Merkel tapping into potential migrant labor to meet shortages of manpower in the economy have been reversed by CDU and SPD+ Greens since 2020. Musk wades into this issue only to find Christian Democrats, Free Democrats cautioning him that he lacks understanding of what is happening. Remigration is now essentially accepted by the Social Democrats, and Christian Demcorats, advocated by Wagenknect Left and AfD right parties alike, leaving little room for AfD to grow except from unease.  CDU Merz polls at 30-36% but lacks answers to the Ukraine war. AfD is at about 20%. Wagenkenecht has taken positions opposing immmigration and migrants similar to Socialist parties in Denmark, which means most of the European Union across all parties have reversed position on migration similar to Labor in Britain under Keir Starmer. ...

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Competing oligopolies or Competition? American capitalism in reality is a mix of both. Government's role in American economy shifting from higher in the Great Depression to low in Globalization and now back to supporting business to compete with China/India/Germany's Subsidized Capitalism. This WSJ piece that take a circle around the bases for a home run is in reality not a true reflection of America's management of it's economy over the last 200 years since 1825. There is a high degree of individualism, yes because it is a land that is forever expanding on sparsely populated Indian territory in the west starting under Jefferson and Washington at the Ohio/Pennsylvania frontier. By 1900 there is the emergence of the great corporations and monopolies, oligopolies with TR's busting of monopolies by 1920, and much of that structure is still there in 2025, with some obsolescence for changing technology. Oligopolies in information technologies simply absorb the small companies, and government is itself run by powerful lobbying as in the pharma industry to the sheer and alarming detriment of all Americans. ...

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China imports most of Iran's oil exports about 1.8 million barrels a day which flow through the Straits of Hormuz. Iran is heavily dependent on these exports for oil revenues that support it's economy. All Asian economies are heavily dependent on the oil flowing from Saudis, UAE and Iran through the Straits.  For Iran it would mean the loss of oil revenues needed to support its economy if the Straits are shut down. Iran's central bank says it get $67 billion from oil exports 90% of it going to China alone.  82% of oil imports of Asian countries  from Saudi, UAE, Qatar and Iran sources go though the Straits.  The US is not dependent on the Straits- less than 10% of its oil. Also true of Germany. The US  would have to use air strikes to prevent any mining of the waters seaway, and China, US, Japan, India would join in combined effort to keep all sea navigation open for international shipping.  ...

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Japan has coped with its long period of low growth by increasing the temp workforce. Loss of nontraditional workers jobs was 158,000 between October and mid February and accounted for much of the 220,000 jobs lost in the October to January period, according to the Japanese Labor Ministry. During the years that EU countries liberalized their labor markets allowing the hiring of temporary workers. During the 1990's Spain, Italy, Greece began allowing the hiring of temporary workers and workers on shortterm contracts. Germany allowed temporary workers and loosened labor laws earlier in this decade. By 2007 17% of the workers in the EU countries which share the euro were temporary workers. Many of these are young people or immigrants. But the labor laws in the EU for permanent employees remained the same and the worker protections were in place, including unemployment benefits and severance. This helped bring the EU unemployment rate down to 7.2% in 2007 during the upturn years. Now this whole process is going into reverse with the young and immigrants hit hardest. In Germany it costs 11,927 euros to layoff a permanent employee according to the Cologne Institure of Economic Research, and zero for laying off a shortterm employee. Now as the economy deteriorates the shortterm workers are being laid off first in large numbers. BMW has laid off 5000 shortterm workers. And short term contracts usually last only 4.7 months on average in Germany, about 12% of temp workers in Germany get hired as permanent workers. To get full unemployment benefits the workers have to have worked steadily for at least 1 year in Germany. ...