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Can the new intelligence assessment that Iran gave up the effort to make nuclear weapons three years ago affect oil prices and to what extent? At least it calms the anxiety that there is an unknown out there being the development of nuclear weapons in the backyard of Iraq where US is involved and in a major oil producing region. This should take some of the pressure off oil prices and any its significant in another way, that any developments in the middle east would be taken in a different light, not as a part of a cloud of uncertainty but taken by evaluating the new development on its own merits carefully. Interestingly this happened in the same week that another development ocurred. The President of Venezuela lost a referendum in Venezuela designed to givie him emergency powers by amending the constitution. Even by controlling most of the media and using oil money to support social programs and giveaways to the poor and working classes, Chavez lost the referendum that he initiated. It was not clear what would happen in Venezuela, and the Iran development was a surprise, so this also means that in international affairs educated people will look at a lot of different possibilities from now on before drawing any conclusions. In fact this is exactly what appears to have happened in the case of the intelligence on Iran, as mentioned here the new assessment was based on allowing different agencies and groups within the government to come up with different conclusions and then to test the facts again and again, and to question old assumptions....

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The Vytorin study and the way it was handled by Merck is fueling a debate on how tests should be conducted not to let sponsors interests interfere with the integrity of the process of collection and summarizing of data and their conclusions. There were many delays in the release of the data from the Vytorin study and this has also raised questions about its integrity and the way the drug companies handled it knowing their obvious interests in promoting Vytorin, which conflict with the whole process of experimental collection and processing of data and release of conclusions whatever they may be regardless of how they may affect the promotion of the drug in question.

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Dana gets a number of experienced executives from Toyota, GM and Chrysler to serve on its board, Convis, Devine and York. Devine former Chief Financial officer for GM may become the new Chairman at Dana as it emerges from bankruptcy this month.

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The Commerce Department released revised figures of GDP growth for the first quarter that showed 0.4% annual rate of growth, which was revised from an earlier estimate of 1.9%. This is startling news because of the extent of the decline in this revision. The GDP growth estimate for the second quarter of 2011 is an annual rate of 1.3%. Economists at IHS Global Insight and Capital Economics point to lower growth in the remainder of the year if Congress cuts spending immediately and the prevailing uncertainty leads to businesses holding off on investment. Inflation adjusted consumer spending increased just slightly by 0.1%, as consumers are paying higher prices even if they spend more. The Commerce Department report also shows that the impact on the auto industry from supply chain disruption in the aftermath of the Japanese earthquake was not as bad as expected earlier. This means say analysts that the bounce from auto industry recovery will not help growth in the remainder of the year.

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U.S consumer spending declines by 0.9% in Dec. 2014 over the prior month, according to the Commerce Department. Consumer spending was up in Nov. 2014 by 0.4%. Excluding auto sales and falling gas prices the Dec. 2014 decline in consumer spending was 0.3%. This shows that consumers are saving most of the money saved as a result of gasoline at about $2 a gallon, or using it to pay off debt. Analysts had estimated a significant increase in retail spending which turned out not to be happening.

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Norris provides an insightful account into the research and thinking of Janet Yellen, the new chairwoman of the U.S. Federal Reserve. In her research work Fed chairwoman Yellen has placed importance on the long term unemployment rate and the difficulties workers unemployed for long period have in finding work. This is likely to determine Fed policy on interest rates as the unemployment rate inches closer to the Fed target of 6.5% set by Bernanke in Dec. 2012. Norris points out the emphasis Yelen has placed on this in speeches since being nominated to succeed Ben Bernanke at the Fed. In a recent speech Yellen emphasized that in the recession of the early 1980's median time unemployed people said they were unemployed was 12 weeks, which jumped to 25 weeks for about 6 months in 2010 and is at 17 weeks in the most recent jobs report. Another indicator Yellen has emphasized is labor's share of income in the nonfinancial corporate sector which remained between 66% and 61% from 1950 to early 2000's. This fell below 60% in 2005 and is at 57.1% barely budging from the 2011 figure. In papers written with George Ackerloff, Yellen has advanced the "fair-wage hypothesis," that workers do not do as good a job when wages are held down. Their research also shows its normal for workers in periods of recession to hold out against the lower salaries offered during recession periods, because these workers tend to fall behind newer workers hired with better wages later when the economy recovers. At the confirmation hearing Yellen made it clear that the Fed would do all it can to help the long term unemployed by creating a stronger job market, a job market where these workers would be drawn into work and employers provide job training as well as opportunities for advancement....

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With Democrats emboldened by winning governor races in NJ and Virginia government shutdown on issue of ACA subsidies continues on November 8 2025. Speaker Johnson refusal to commit to holding a vote in the Senate on ACA subsidies means negotiated compromise cannot be made on a future vote for ACA subsidies so that the government funding takes place.

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Rick Perry's IPO for startup Fermi plans to build natural gas processing plants in Amarillo, Texas, in wide open country, and wait for approval of large nuclear plants planned for the next couple of years. It is attempting to build on the surge in data power for AI. Yet these investments in data power take away from other needs for power in the manufacturing sector and for homes and infrastructure. How the Nation allocates scarce resources is something on which there will be much debate.

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Professor Yann LeCunn of the Sorbonne University, France, is a pioneer in the field of AI.  He is now focusing his work on Advanced Artificial Intelligence AAI, saying that the large language models which are being developed in a surge of data center spending of $400 billion in 2025 alone are not the way AI will develop in the future. AAI is based on visual learning similar to how an infant learns, and not by consuming large amounts of data as under large language models.

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Lufthansa's CEO announced in the early days following the crash that pilot Lubitz was "100 percent" fit to fly. Kulish and Clark point to the denial at Lufthansa and some other airlines about the need for airlines to have a clear understanding about the psychological condition of pilots. This exceptional report with contributions by a team of NYT reporters tells the story of Lubitz and the airline industry's lack of effective screening. The lack of systematic screening of pilots for psychological issues was raised by the UN's Civil Aviation Organization in 2012, and by the European Commission's Aviation Safety Agency focussing on strict data protection rules with Germany in November 2014. A culture of privacy in Germany following the experience of pervasive intrusions into privacy by the Nazis and the Soviet backed GDR government in East Germany, and strict data protection rules, create a special situation in Germany of being reluctant to pass on information or delve into personal records. The head of Lufthansa's department of aviation psychology, says he would not have accepted the pilot Lubitz if he had known about his medical problems of depression before or during the training period....

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Federal data showing international and domestic migration by US state and the natural growth in US Population 2026. California, Hawaii, Vermont, New Mexico lost population because of domestic outmigration, lower international migration and natural birth/deaths led to net negative growth. Population growth was fastest in Idaho, Utah, Washington, Texas, North and South Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia, Florida, Arizona, in southern and western mountain states. Births were higher in these states in addition to the domestic in-migration from other states. Population is slowing to about 0.5% after the big surge in international migration under the Biden Administration from failed states such as Venezuela, Guatemala, and from Mexico at the southern Border- by 1.8 million to reach 341.8 million. One of the problems is integrating newcomers- the Movement for Literacy in the US is to ensure new US citizens have an essential grasp of the ideas that shaped the nation and civic information, knowledge of the English language. Another is burden on social services needed and healthcare services which were under strain under the Biden administration open border policy. Also significant is the concerns of residents for homelessness and safety in urban areas.  ...

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How is it that Britain's regulatory agency approved the Pfizer vaccine before the U.S. FDA agency? This report in the NYT says FDA looks at the raw data. Britain's Medicine and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency looks at the information provided by the company. It still does the testing batch by batch and has access to the data and looks at thousands of pages of data. What about the European Union? The European Union Medicines Agency meets on December 29. It takes days after it meets to get input of 27 countries so that vaccination cannot start till January. The U.S. president summoned the FDA to the White House to find out how soon the FDA could act. Both Britain and the U.S. are feeling the impact of the second wave of coronavirus.

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The latest inflation data with inflation falling first from 7% in 2022 to half that or 4% in early 2023, and dropping further to 3% by mid 2023, suggests that the past inflation data was transitory, says this report in the WSJ.

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The first rally for Harris in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The road to the presidency goes through Wisconsin and Harris received enthusiastic support with Governor Tony Evers putting it this way-On the Tony Evers excitement scale that goes from ‘holy mackerel’ and maxes out at ‘heck yes,’ I am jazzed as hell to be welcoming our next presidential nominee to Wisconsin: Vice President Kamala Harris.” Harris used the same lines she used in Wilmington at her first rally in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. In her legal career, Harris said, she “took on perpetrators of all kinds. Predators who abused women, fraudsters who ripped off consumers, cheaters who broke the rules for their own gain.” “So hear me when I say I know Donald Trump’s type”  On project 2025, the blueprint for the first 100 days in office of a Trump second term, the action items are ones that would jeopardize the safety of American institutions that were set up with so much care by Thomas Jefferson, John Adams, and nurtured by the first president George Washington with little attention to himself, and protected by president after president through civil war under Abraham Lincoln, through 2 World Wars and The Great Depression under Woodrow Wilson and Franklin Roosevelt, through recovery under Harry Truman and Ike, only to falter under a series of mediocre presidents Reagan, Clinton, Bush, Obama and be endangered by a NBC television show and construction business person with support from new social media networks that were unknown throughout America history till 2010 and television networks that had degenerated into recklessly divisive behaviours to win silo audiences. ...

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Utah governor Spencer Cox and call for introspection on open debate and discussions without rancor and strife. Cox launched a “Disagree Better” campaign in 2023 with Democratic Colorado Gov. Jared Polis in an effort to restore civility and respect in open debate between differing viewpoints. After all there have been strident difference of opinion since the founding of the Nation and the many crises it has faced. The years leading to the Declaration of Independence to the War with Mexico, the Civil War, the peace movement before World War II, the McCarthy years, Nixon years, and the strife over DJT rhetoric and style of politics. Cox says- “It’s important to understand that in our political system today all of the incentives are lined up against this concept of dignity and respect,” he added. “We made a decision that we would only run for this position if we could do it in a different way and it had to be a positive vision.”  “Social media is a cancer in our society right now, and I would encourage people to log off, turn off, touch grass, go hug a family member, go out and do good in the community."   ...