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DW.com's Barbara Wesel describes the chaos in the Conservative Party and the British prime minister Theresa May's stubborn pursuit of Brexit. Speaking in the House of Commons Theresa May showed no flexibility to reconsider her decision to present a 558 page Brexit document detailing the negotiated agreement to parliament for a vote, even though it lacks the support of the Labour Party and prominent Conservatives in her government. Two Brexit Secretaries have resigned. The Transport minister resigned calling for a second referendum on Brexit. May continues to stick to her basic argument that she is following the wishes of the British people given in the first referendum. Even though she is Conservative MP for Maidenhead supporting Remain, and campaigned to stay in the European Union. Wesel says May has proved once again that she has an unrelenting stubbornness. Lacking even the ability to take into account the variety of opinions carefully presented in parliament from different angles by MP's. Once May has latched on to an idea there is no way she can be drawn off her course, and she has continued saying it is in "the national interest" at every turn without defining this in the particular context. The session in the House of Commons clearly showed Brexit's flaws, as in reality the Conservatives themselves have serious misgivings about the far right Brexiters push for separation without clear understanding of where this takes Britain and the British economy. The Labour Party sees this as an opportunity for a change in government. ...

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Israelis from across the political spectrum say the nuclear deal with Iran in negotiations with the U.S., Britain and France, threatens Israel. Israel's nuclear experts say the 12 month breakout window for Iran to break the agreement and rush to develop a nuclear weapon in 12 months is not sufficient, because of the time it takes for detection and develop the response. Israelis have a deep distrust of Iran's intentions. On the other side of the Middle East the Saudis are also expressing serious concerns about the negotiations giving Iran enough leeway to keep the nuclear program and make a weapon at a future date. The proposed agreement creates further disagreement between prime minister Netanyahu and U.S. president Obama.

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Shamil Shams interview with Shakuntala Banaji, expert on media and communication at the London School of Economics, on the general election in Britain. Banaji says there has been persistent negative coverage given to Jeremy Corbyn of the Labor Party for the last two years. A lot of hard work has been done by Labor MP's, Labor activists, volunteers, to get the Labor message across. Corbyn is seen as giving a calm composed performance in the face of hostile media and audience, including the televised interview in which he talked of real issues facing ordinary British people. One of the ways Corbyn has softened the media distorted image of him is by acting calmly under pressure and not taking on an autocratic style. This was best seen on the day he first handed out the Labor party manifesto with the focus on the message- for the many, not the few. Some of the coverage of Corbyn is described here as being improper and unacceptable.

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Witte, Booth and Adam of the Washington Post describe the situation Britain's prime minister Theresa May finds herself in after calling a snap election. A badly run campaign by May focusses on Brexit, and leads to election losses to Labor. Without the support of voters in Scotland who voted tactically to prevent Scotland from breaking away, the Conservatives would have no chance of forming a government. May now needs the 10 seats of the Democratic Unionist Party in Scotland to have a 3 seat majority. Labor leader Corbyn despite a barrage of negative publicity from British tabloids, maintained his cool and composure. His focus on the austerity politics of the Conservatives under Cameron and now May, enabled Labor to get 40% of the vote compared to the Conservatives 43%, with the Scottish National Party getting 3% and the Liberal Democrats 7.4%. Giving the parties that have never seen Brexit as a priority for Britain over 50% of the vote. The Democratic Unionist is a small party with less than 1% of the vote (0.9%), which in some countries makes it ineligible to take seats in the legislature. In the mixed up out of focus nature of British politics today this party is the kingmaker. The UK Independence party or UKIP party that started the whole affair of Brexit- that prime minister Cameron responded to to gain votes for the Conservatives by promising the referendum on Brexit- won just 1.8% of the votes cast, in a election where 69% of voters went to the polls, winning zero seats, down from 10.8% in the 2015 election. This is the state of British politics today  following the failure of political leaders, as Theresa May acts as if the election results are not sending a message about Brexit, say Witte, Booth and Adams.   ...

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This report in The Times shows that from April to October the Tory red wall seats in the north of England have been hit hard by the coronavirus, much harder than the south of England. The infection rates in October are about three or four times in the north of England. The second lockdown came earlier in the north, in Liverpool Greater Manchester and Yorkshire. The result is that instead of levelling up the great disparities in wealth and income that are seen between the south, London and the north of England the gap is widening under the impact of coronavirus. Deindustrialization in the north after their prominent role in Britain's industrial revolution was followed by the same type of decline seen in parts of the American midwestern states. Imports from China and globalization, hit these areas in a sort of second wave, just as America was hit first by the wave of Japanese imports, followed by an even bigger wave of imports from China and complete loss of manufacturing. With it the loss of well paying jobs for workers in manufacturing and the decline of industrial cities. Influx of cheap labor from other parts of the European Union also affected the north. The result is that the popularity of Boris Johnson and the Conservatives with 58% approval rating in April in the north of England is replaced by a rating of about 31% in October 2020. The 40 Tory MP's in the Northern Research Group expressed their serious concern to the prime minister. ...

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The new coalition government in Britain has cut direct state funding for teaching in universities by 40%. The current cap on tution fees of 3,290 British pounds a year will be removed The universities Minister, Mr Willetts, suggested a cap of 9000 pounds a year. Students pay after graduation and after earning more than 21,000 pounds, at a rate of 9% of income above that level. Graduates in future will pay 3% interest above retail price index of inflation, compared to zero percent before this. But the interest rate drops to zero if the graduate loses his job or enters lower paid work.

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This WSJ editorial says despite his call for "hard-hitting sanctions" prime minister Cameron of Britain has not taken action to stop the flow of "dirty money" from Russia into the City of London. About $75 billion left Russia so far in 2014 in capital flight as the Russian elite shifts money overseas including to the City of London. France has a planned $1.6 billion sale of Mistral naval ships to Russia, and will need the British example to cancel this sale. Putin's strategy is to distance Europe from the U.S. In the EU countries opposing tougher sanctions are Germany, Netherlands, Italy and Greece. Netherlands suffered the most with 193 Dutch citizens killed in the shooting down of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 over eastern Ukraine.

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China gives Sri Lanka a $1.1 billion loan for infrastructure projects, roads, airports and power stations. Interest for loans has ranged from 4 to 6.4%, higher than World Bank loans but lower than loans from western commercial banks. Sri Lanka has $54 billion in debt, with large debt payments for a nation of 20 million. Chinese loans have helped build a expressway from Colombo to Katunayake airport, Puttalam power station, and a port at Hambantota. New loans are for work expanding Colombo's port facilities. During the 2015 election campaign the UNP party was critical of China's loans given to the Rajapakse government. The current UNP coalition of prime minister Ranil Wickremasinghe is continuing work on Chinese projects on the island and at the same time seeking  loans from India and Britain to maintain balanced relations. China sees Sri Lanka as an important part of president Xi Jinping's Belt and Road Initiative. To assuage Buddhist and national sentiment in Sri Lanka China has adopted Buddhist diplomacy in negotiating with the new UNP led coalition government. ...

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"The NHS is on its knees," says Starmer, one more reaon to ban outdoor smoking. Labor in 2007 put the ban on indoor smoking. Sunak had a plan for the Tories to ban smoking. Starmer is now following this to reduce the burden on the NHS and improve public health in the UK. The bill would gradually ban smoking for people born after 2009, an idea proposed by Sunak and the Conservatives. The bill would place new restrictions on outdoor smoking, including outdoor spaces at, and pavements outside, clubs and restaurants, as well as at universities, children’s play areas and small parks. Asked about this during a visit to Paris, Starmer said: “My starting point on this is to remind everybody that over 80,000 people lose their lives every year because of smoking,” he said. “That is a preventable death, it’s a huge burden on the NHS and, of course, it is a burden on the taxpayer. So, yes, we are going to take decisions in this space, more details will be revealed, but this is a preventable series of deaths and we’ve got to take action to reduce the burden on the NHS and the taxpayer.”  The prime minister said-“It is important to get the balance right, but everybody … who uses the NHS will know that it’s on its knees.” Dr Layla McCay, the director of policy at the NHS Confederation, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “It is absolutely the health challenge of our time. It’s the leading cause of preventable illness in the UK, so we are heartened to see that progress is being made and that the intention is moving forward to really address one of Britain’s main drivers of health inequalities.” ...

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A new poll from YouGov shows the Conservative Party getting 310 seats and Labor Party at 257 seats. Labor would gain 30 seats and Conservatives lose 20 seats under this prediction. Conservatives would fall short of the majority of 326 seats needed. Support for Theresa May is slipping especially after announcing older people would have to take on more burden for care, dubbed the dementia tax by media. A coalition of Labor party with the Scottish National party (SNP) with 50 seats and the Liberal Democrats with 10 seats is now a possibility.

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The Economist magazine says Mr. Trump's claim that he could fix things because he is an outsider is now quickly proving to be false. The lack of experience works against the Trump administration as it stumbles from one crisis to another. The tweets that were used to turn voter sentiment against opponents now work the other way. There are other problems that are noted here but not emphasized to the extent they need to be. Mr. Trump, as Peggy Noonan, a Reagan aide, has pointed out in the WSJ, risks alienating the very blue collar vote, and older voters whose interests he claimed to defend. This happened with the Ryan Republican House health care bill as millions of poor Americans approaching retirement were one of the worst affected groups. The Economist points out that the next project to tackle tax reform has the same possible consequences for the Trump blue collar base, as it says Republican plans for tax reform are seen as regressive. Tax reform has eluded previous administrations, and requires more experience in building coalitions which the Trump administration lacks in its confrontational attitude towards Congressmen on both sides of the aisle who disagree with him. Improving the U.S. trade position, infrastructure investment are other areas that the administration plans to tackle, yet the first 100 days show that the lack of experience and the lack of a calm composed mind is hurting the Trump administration, to the point of policies that hurt the very voters who put their faith in the Trump administration to improve things. A similar process is unfolding in Britain as it faces a Brexit negotiation that the Economist points out has been badly handled by prime minister Theresa May, and could lead to worsening the economy if no deal is reached because the European Union sees that it is not in its interest to do so, and Ms. May realizes only later that she has taken nationalist sentiment a bit too far for a European economic arrangement to work and provide mutual benefit. A continent wide economic arrangement that it was the wisdom of past leaders from Britain, France and Germany to support for over six decades is not easily undone by one vote, or one government. ...

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Deocuments from the weekly cabinet meeting show the new budget in France will increase revenues from household income taxes by 23%, and business taxes by 30%. The top marginal income tax rate goes up to 45% from 41%. Limiting a deduction for financial charges for company's taxable income brings in $4 billion in 2013, according to the finance ministry. The goal is to cut the budget deficit to 3% of GDP in 2013 from 4.5% in 2012. The finance ministry has assumed higher borrowing rates for future years- 2.9% on 10 year debt for 2013, up to 3.65% in 2015, and is not relying on the low rate of 2.18% on 10 year government bonds as reported by Trade Web Sept 28, 2012. The overall tax burden will be 46.3% in 2013, and 46.7% in 2015. French debt is at 91% of GDP for the 2nd quarter 2012, expected to be 91.3% in 2013 and falling to 82.9% in 2015. Prime minister Ayrault emphasized- "If we don't put a stop to this, taxpayer money will keep paying for debt reimbursement." Swift anticipatory action and unified government-business-labor posture under a favorable borrowing environment characterizes the approach for Britain and France in 2011-2012, compared to the situation in Spain where government action has been slow, not tough enough in cleaning up the banks, fallen behind in anticipating events and the government-business-labor unified posture has cracked under the strain. As a result under an unfavorable borrowing environment money raised from austerity type tax increases now goes to paying for debt reimbursement in Spain, leading to a situation in which debt and deficit reduction targets just get harder to achieve. A looming drop in credit ratings to junk status for Spain only makes the situation harder to overcome. ...

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Gordon Brown, former prime minister of Britain from 2007 to 2010, chaired the April 2009 G-20 meeting that came up with ways to tackle the global financial crisis. Brown also led the way by recapitalizing British banks, a step the U.S. followed. He comments on the volatility in financial markets in August 2007 following the S&P credit downgrade of the U.S.. Brown gives an incomplete grade to the tasks the 2009 G-20 set out to accomplish. He points to three goals the G-20 had set in the middle of the financial crisis in April 2009. The first was to prevent a recession from becoming a depression. The other two were to establish a financial stability regime, and a compact for growth. These two became paper promises says Brown. Brown sees the best approach to prevent a lost decade is for U.S. and Europe trading their way out of a downturn as the Asian market absorbs more industrial goods from Europe and the U.S. This includes policies that would keep commodity prices low and ways of coping with currency shocks. Analysts have pointed to an export led recovery as one of the solutions the U.S. was hoping to achieve with a lower value of the dollar. This has had only limited success because of deep structural problems- high consumer indebtedness, bad debt at the banks, weak housing sector following the mortgage crisis, and a rising U.S. deficit- which will take some time to clear. Brown does not come to grips with these underlying imbalances built up during the boom years of the last decade, both in Britain and in the U.S., during which he was the finance minister of Britain....

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Britain's High Court gives a ruling on November 2, 2016, that the government must consult parliament, and that parliament has to approve the plan for Brexit before invoking Article 50. This means that the government has to lay out the details of its plans which make it harder to conduct negotiations. The Conservative Party also does not have a majority in the House of Lords. Legal experts say the decision which caught the government by surprise was expected from a constitutional law standpoint which looks at whether the sovereign or parliament is supreme in making such a decision. Members of parliament in general were not in favor of leaving the European Union, making this add an element of uncertainty about Brexit. Political experts say one way out for Theresa May who earlier announced that she would invoke Article 50 by March 2017, is to call a general election. Today she has 329 seats in a 650 member parliament, with many of the MP's opposed to Brexit. May's government is expected to appeal the High Court decision to the Supreme Court. ...

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Some Republicans are saying that it is time to give up the conceit that increasing the incomes of the upper classes will bring benefits to all Americans, and whether making individual tax cuts the priority is a policy that no longer works and can even bring disaster as it did for British prime minister Liz Truss recently. In this camp are Senators Josh Hawley of Missouri and think tank American Compass. Others including Marc Rubio no longer favor globalization and see it important for the US to bring back American manufacturing at every opportunity with incentives and government action as the Biden administration is currently doing. This is creating new faultlines in the Republican party between the people who support the party of Reagan and its priorities and others who are questioning whether Reagan is relevant anymore. The fight that delayed the election of Speaker McCarthy also brought out some of these fissures as a subsection of the party felt strongly that it was important to go after entitlement programs and other social spending by the Biden administration. This is creating a new situation in American politics and in world trade and economics as the Biden Administration is not meekly accepting the detours of so called Third Way Democratic and Labour politicians of the US and Britain such as Tony Blair, Clinton and Obama who let the traditional backing of the Democratic Party in the working class wither with ties to Big Tech and acceptance of Reagan type free trade policies for manufacturing that ignored American working class communities. Biden's recent success in fighting for railway trade unions in restoring fairness in vacation and sick leave is only one of the battles that Biden has shown he can fight for American workers. Republicans now face the prospect of appearing divided and ambiguous in their support of working class, and overdependent on cultural issues for working class support. A recent British study on Labour's prospects showed that a slight shift on cultural issues can create a strong shift and have a large impact in Labour forming a new government with a secure majority in parliament.   ...

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The facts that guide one's understanding of what is happening in Greece relate to the size of the public sector for a small country like Greece, and the failure of people from all classes of society from cab drivers and civil servants to small business and the shipping industry, to pay taxes. These two twin facts and a splurge of spending during and after the 2004 Olympics without proper and correct account keeping, has brought Greece to its present situation. One estimate is that every Greek person would owe 27,000 dollars, that is how much the national debt has swollen to- a massive 300 billion euros debt for a small country. This is 115% of its GDP. And the public sector spending simply went unchecked by different governments trying to win votes. Estimates are that the public sector makes up 40% of Greece's GDP, and government workers are 15% of the active workforce. Not paying taxes has become a societal trait in Greece, as a result the government does not collect an estimated 25 billion euros a year in taxes each year. And this does not include the taxes that would be paid if owners in the Greek shipping industry were to not take advantage of an exemption from paying taxes granted by the government. The result- Greece's socialist government of Prime Minister Papandreou has accepted a $110 billion euro bailout from the European Union and the IMF which comes with cuts in public spending and austerity measures designed to reduce the deficit form 13.6% of GDP to 3% in 3 years. Its important to understand what is happening in Greece, because from Prime Minister Cameron in Britain (with his cuts in government department spending of 25% over 5 years), to Prime Minister Naoto Kan of Japan (with a planned doubling of the sales tax), the mood in Europe and Japan is shifting to austerity measures that would correct excessive government spending. In Greece Papandreou and his ministers are making serious efforts to change a culture of not paying taxes. See the groups and links for Papandreou and Greece....

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The Tokyo National Stadium design approved by a 2012 panel headed by architect Tadao Ando, is scrapped by prime minister Abe of Japan. The design was by the firm Hadid Architects in Britain. Public criticism over the cost of the project for the Tokyo Olympics led to its cancellation. The original project cost estimate was 130 billion yen, with the new cost almost double that of 252 billion yen. Surprisingly Tadao Ando says it was not the panel's job to figure out the cost and he did not have any idea what the cost would be when the design was selected. The debt problems in Greece began with the Athens Olympics. And it is widely thought that president Putin spent too much ($47 billion) on the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics, especially now that Russia's economy is contracting and there is a need for stimulus spending on useful infrastructure.

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This piece in Der Spiegel points out that Brexit may be an opportunity if European leaders recognize that there can be different levels of unity, and that different countries in the EU can advance at their own pace with Germany and France providing a core group. There is no longer the need for continual enlargement of the European Union as has happened before. It also offers a time to take some deep breaths and reflect on the progress so far and where it has come short, what to do about it, such as the bureaucracy that has grown in Brussels, the different views on immigration, and public sentiment. Actually the whole progress towards the European Community, and then the European Union has evolved over time. In the immediate postwar years, after one setback Adenauer once said during the difficult negotiations in 1951-52 between France and Germany to set up the European Coal and Steel Community, predecessor of the European Community and the European Union- "arme Europa, arme Europa," (poor Europe, poor Europe). The Dutch and Belgian delegates had strong differences for the headquarters for the ECSC- Turin was rejected, Liege and Brussels were proposed, until Monnet was made head of the High Authority of the European Coal and Steel Community with headquarters in Luxembourg. Monnet himself considered stepping down a couple of times because of differences, and the Editor of Le Monde described Monnet's plans for European integration as "a leap in the dark." This was the first of many difficult steps in the evolution of the European Union. Nationalist feeling was nothing new, as the Gaullists opposed Monnet's drive for European unity when it differed from their ideas. Still Monnet persevered and progress took place every ten years as it must now.  ...

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BBC News provides a look at the first proposals of the Boris Johnson minority government to the European Union. This includes replacing the Irish backstop. The Irish backstop is a way set up by the EU and the previous UK government of prime minister May in negotiated agreement to prevent a hard border in Ireland. It means Britain would remain in the customs union with the EU after December 2022 if no agreement for withdrawal is reached by then. Conservative Party hard liners oppose it because they say it leaves the UK indefinitely in the customs union. The EU insists on this to protect the interests of a member state Ireland. The moderates in May's Conservative government agreed to it to keep the peace accord in Ireland. Boris Johnson wants to get rid of it, and his proposals include customs checks between Northern Ireland and Ireland which removes the free flowing border between the two Irelands, a major achievement of the Irish peace accords.  Which is why the negotiations could end up going nowhere, with each side presenting the other as the side that wouldn't negotiate terms of withdrawal. The Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party, and the Labor Party except for its leader Corbyn's neutral stance, oppose leaving the European Union. And parliament opposes leaving without a negotiated agreement pitting Boris Johnson against parliament and the opposition.  Another referendum or a general election would settle the issue with Boris Johnson thinking he can flip former safe Labor seats in working class areas in the north of England to win the election. Labor party's McDonnell says he has miscalculated and Labor party is buying time to organize an effective election campaign to get back the working class vote lost under Blair with his confusing Third Way that lost workers on the way.   ...