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Based on certain criteria of the number of seats and number of states India's Election Commission says the Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi and Punjab gets status as national party. The Trinamool Congress or TMC of West Bengal, and the NCP of Maharashtra, the CPI, are no longer considered national parties. India's evolution as a modern industrialized country following the pattern set by Japan in the 1960's, South Korea in the 1990's, China by 2019, is at stake. The regional parties based in one state are a new phenomenon. Under Jawaharlal Nehru India lacked a pool of capital and techological resources large enough for this kind of industrialization similar to the situation in China under Mao. Non alignment under Nehru and Communism under Mao deprived India and China of the resources and foreign investment of the west including the absence of infrastructure and policies that would encourage foreign investment. China set about removing these obstacles. Yet one obstacle would not stand up against these efforts in China as it would in India. There was no prospect of coalition governments that would be indecisive and be built on various compromises damaging to rapidly building infrastructure. In India coalition governments would emerge because of the 22 language structure in its makeup and the language based division of the country that Nehru was forced to make by linguistic demands. As a result without a core philosophy of principles common to all parts of the country rapid development could not happen over a period 1990-2014 when the party of Nehru lost many northern states and when states in the south such as Tamilnadu, Andhra and Telengana, and states in the northeast such as West Bengal, Orissa, states in the west such as Maharashtra moved into language based regional identities and parties running these states. This is the significance of the changes since 2014 of one strong party in a number of northern states and in the west and northeast of the country that is making rapid industrialization and infrastructure building to attract foreign investment similar to China's experience happen. In India this core of common principles has evolved around the Ancient Path of Vedanta and Buddhism that has provided essential aspect of good governance and the discipline for finding a path to the kind of rapid infrastructure development that has happened in neighboring Japan and China. ...

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U.S. president Trump's 2017 budget is an effort to reshape spending priorities by the Republican party. Apart from Medicare and Social Security all other entitlement programs from the days of Lyndon Johnson's Great Society are subject to cuts. Deep cuts to Medicaid and food stamps, including introducing work requirements. The philosophy behind it is that compassion will now be measured not by how large these programs are but by how much the government can get people "off these programs and back in charge of their lives,"  according to Budget Director Mulvaney.  The cuts are $616 billion to Medicaid and Children's Health programs, $193 billion in cuts to Food Stamps, $143 billion in student loans, $72 billion in disability programs. The overhaul of the Affordable Health Care Act is part of this change. The reallocation would put more money into infrastructure for $200 billion, and in tax cuts, $19 billion in a parental leave program and $29 billion for veterans programs, plus added spending on the military. William Hoagland of the Bipartisan Policy Center, a Republican who worked on budget issues says it will be politically difficult as the cuts to lower income groups come with tax cuts for small businesses and higher income individuals.  Beyond the policy priorities there is an area where both Republicans and Democrats are skeptical of the budget. This is how it impacts the U.S. debt. Under Congressional Budget Office estimates the U.S. debt as a percentage of GDP which rose to about 75% after the Great Recession starting in 2008, is projected to grow to about 85%. In sharp contrast the Trump administration estimates of the Office of Management and Budget are for it to drop to 65% based on rosier estimates of 2% inflation, 3% growth for the decade ahead. Experts say this is unlikely once the Fed raises interest rates and the unemployment rate currently at 4.4% leads to rising inflation, undercutting growth which has remained below 2% for a long period. These concerns are also voiced by Hilsenrath in the WSJ based on the experience of other countries such a Britain that cut corporate taxes without seeing an uptick in economic growth. ...

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An exceptional account by Melissa Eddy of how Germans are reacting to the German government's underinvestment in childcare centers. Germany's cabinet approved a bill that provides $190 monthly child care allowance for mothers who opt not to use day care centers provided by the government. This is supported by the Bavarian party, Christian Social Union, on the grounds that it gives an alternative to mothers to use private day care or nanny care. In practice many of the mothers using the allowance are expected to be lower paid workers who may decide not to work. The government has budgeted $500 million for the allowance for 2013. This is opposed by all opposition parties , and in a rare show of unity by business employer associations and unions, both say it "creates a false incentive to quit work." Axel Plunnecke of the Cologne Institute for Economic Research, says studies show low income families are among those who benefit most from early childhood education. About 100,000 lower qualified and lower paid workers could see this as attractive and quit working. The western part of Germany lacks enough child day care slots, so this is seen as not investing enough where its most needed, and Germany lags behind other countries like France in day care centers. The government is investing $15 million over five years to expand the number of child care centers. The goal is to have 750,000 child care slots by 2013, according to Ms. Kristina Schroeder, the family minister, herself a mother giving birth while in office. The measure was vigorously debated and controversial from the beginning because most many Germans see the $15 million years over 5 years as underinvestment in vital educational infrastructure. The $500 million is better invested in building modern day care facilities, they believe, especially because the children from lower income mothers not benefitting from daycare facilities will still need educational help, and German industry needs more women in the labor force to be competitive. Five years ago under reforms of parental support the 3 years of help to mothers was reduced to 1 year, resulting in an increase in the numbers of women working from 32% in 2002 to 40% by 2011, according to the Ministry of Family Affairs, Senior Citizens, Women and Youth....

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This NYT piece suggests that 9 new members for the 30 member board have already been named and none of them are non Japanese. So the similiar WSJ piece stands corrected as these new members have already been named. With 2.54 million cars sold in the US and about half imported from Japan this does not reflect internationalization by any stretch of the imagination, as the NYT puts it the rest are all "graying salarymen". Toyota still reflects its narrow parochial centre in Aichi prefecture around Nagoya and growth has not changed the outlook. Compare this with Sony. There are advantages for Toyota in its hometown centred way of doing things so as not to be distracted by the latest management fad, and maintain focus on quality and efficiency but considering the expansion in overseas markets its amazing that the Board should be so underrepresented with other nationalities.

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Comments by Eric Schmidt CEO of Google in an interview with the NYT's Helft. Important points emerging from the interview. Google he says does not know how long this crisis will last. Response not to waste money means less hiring and more careful expense reviews, and more focus. Managers are very very sensitive to important aspects of its culture, so such perks will continue which make it fun to work at the company for employees. And he says careful investment inthe future. "If you tighten too much, you eliminate future innovation, and then you set yourself up for a really bad outcome five or ten years" down the road. And here is the most important point he makes in advising the Obama administration. Do not take up the economy first, and let energy come in afterwards, deal with all the major problems at once, especially energy, which are part of the problem and the opportunity for the economy. For instance as the auto industry shrinks these job losses can be filled with jobs making parts for renewable energy like wind turbines and blades, like solar energy generation parts. This is actually happening already, government could speed things up by mandates for renewable energy and by help to companies through incentives. See the link to this in the NYT about companies in places like Newton, Iowa where lost jobs at Maytag are being replaced by renewable energy jobs. And several million jobs can be generated in energy to make up losses in auto jobs in the midwest. These parts of the Obama plan may have come up through conversations with Schmidt and other advocates of this, and by seeing what is already happening as reported by the NYT in the link. It makes Obama look like a farsighted genius, but its just sharp observation and careful listening. Pickens is already advertising this on television for his wind farms in Texas. It is not only Google's thinking, as Schmidt says, but good common sense and some ballpark estimates that would tell one that it would save sending 1 trillion dollars to Middle East and other nations that is needed for investment at home in the U.S.. Schmidt's calculations are that this amount could be saved in 22 years through renewable energy, plug-in hybrids and other innovative technologies. ...

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Interesting and quite useful from a sociological and psychological point of view, that people believe what they want to believe. Even today writes Slackman, the Arabs and Muslims from Dubai malls to people one meets in a park in Algiers, cafes in Riyadh, and in shops and places all over Cairo, say the USA organized 9/11 so that they could attack 2 Muslim states, Iraq and Afghanistan. If we changed it a bit and said Rumsfeld and Cheney got the perfect excuse to attack Afghanistan's Taliban government from 9/11. It created the kind of fears in the US public about terrorists, individual, or state sponsored terrorism like Iraq's against the Marsh Shiites after the Kuwait war (which was a personal affront to both Rumsfeld and Cheney as they let it happen right under their eyes), then one can extend that to say Rumsfeld and Cheney felt they now had the opportunity to get Saddam out. So once you have the US even for good moral reason eager to intervene, this eagerness may not require too much of a stretch to be seen as the US administration engineering this atmosphere by organizing 9/11, or by letting it happen. This is true for an Arab public that feels humiliated and sees a loss of respect from all the setbacks they have suffered, including in Egypt where a President has maintained himself in power for thirty long years and has American support. And most of these people haven't left their surroundings, so they haven't seen the world outside. What they beleieve is only what is possible from what they can see possible from their immediate surroundings. From a -sociological and psychological perspective this is certainly possible and even realistic. When Friedman in the New York Times says its shameless that the 2 Republican candidates can speak of being change agents when Republicans have been in power for 8 years, and still the Republican faithful and some independents believe this, they have not lost their wits but may see this in terms of their gut feel and in terms of their own personal experiences and surroundings. Even when Paul Gigot of the Wall Street Journal sees little hope from either candidate when it comes to lobbyists influencing them and proof of this from lobbyists for Fannie and Freddie as their senior advisors. Then its still possible for Republican faithful, however weird it may appear to an informed observer,to see McCain and Palin as agents of change. Same is true for Obama. ...

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Republican Senators Corker and Blount are confident that a solution can be devised for the sticking points on a deal between the Republicans and the Democrats. The Republicans consider the savings in the Reid plan from the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq a "gimmick," but essentially the Reid and Boehner plans say analysts are similiar in the inital cuts in spending. The sticking point for Democrats is on the whole process of the debt ceiling extension having to be redone in early 2012. For Republicans the sticking point is in in tax increases which the Reid plan leaves out in the initial period for debt limit extension into 2013 when a new president takes office. House majority leader Boehner is facing opposition within his party and this restricts his leeway for striking a deal- the Boehner plan passed in the House by a vote of 218 to 210 on July 29, 2011, with 20 Republicans voting no. It was voted down in the Senate that same evening with a vote of 59 to 41, with 6 Republican senators joining all 53 Democratic senators. As it stands now, the weekend before the August 2 deadline, President Obama concedes that there is "rough agreement" about the size of the first round of spending cuts, and the "next step" to rein in borrowing. He went on to say that "if we need to put in place some kind of enforcement mechanism to hold us all accountable for making these reforms, I'll support that too, if it is done in a smart and balanced way." Its the design of this enforcement mechanism that is the main point in the remaining negotiation. The nature of the committee selected from both parties for the next phase of savings, its powers and the trigger in the sense of what it can ensure happening if no decisions are taken by both parties. ...

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Harry Markovitz who invented Portfolio Theory and won the Nobel Prize in 1990 on the economic crisis and solutions. His idea in portfolio theory is that you reduce risk by creating a portfolio of uncorrelated assets. Owning GM and Ford together is more risky because they are correlated. The securities owned by banks were not not portfolio type with uncorrelated risk, they were all of one type in the mortgage securties industry. He goes to the heart of the problem saying until all these securities are scrutinized and underlying mortgagesare scrutinized, sorted out down to the individual zip code level, and this is not as complicated as it seems given the amount of resources that can be thrown at this problem, and given what is at stake, and they are striped of their lack of transparency, the country and the global economies that are intertwined with America's problems cannot see a solution to this problem. And this is true for the banks like Bank of America and Chase and the government run banks like the FDIC Indymac bank, where only a small fraction of homeowners can be helped with loan modifications to make monthly payments affordable, as a big part of the mortgage loans they hold or service are in the form of mortgage securtities where they don't make the decisions. Unless mortgage securities are sorted out to restore transparency and the government steps in with help and mandates a direction, the foreclosure process will lead to dropping property prices and further deterioration and economic stagnation similiar to the experience of Japan. Markovitz says it could take a year to do this. He says "the valuation process will take as long as takes, but it is the primary step toward effectively utilizing the very controversial bailout and avoiding the structural problem of a stagnant economy." Writes Gordon Crovitz of WSJ, "to put the issue in probability terms, the odds are very remote and nonexistent that the economy can recover until these basic steps are taken."...

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Landler and Haberman provide a chronological summary of the events leading up to the speech by president Trump on August 21,2017 for continuing the war in Afghanistan with troop increases. Initially Trump followed his instincts and questioned his generals Mattis and McMaster, who have experience with the war in Afghanistan. McMaster prepared the plan. Tillerson, Secretary of State, called for a civilian component for the State Department in the military's plan. The options included using U.S. troops, covert CIA operation, and using mercenaries. The key factor- learning from the experience of the Iraq withdrawal of 2011 andnot  letting things get out of control as happened in Iraq and Syria after 2011 with rise of Islamic State and intervention by Iran and Russia, destabilization of the European Union through accelerated refugee flows. In the end the costs were too significant to let a vacuum develop and the U.S. president gave an honest reflection in his televised speech which was exceptional in its candour and willingness to lay the facts out. Trump's own instincts which he has historically followed would be set aside in this case because of the evidence the generals had given, supported by vice president Pence and key members of the Republican party. The president known for impulsive behaviour could be described as having gone through a period of reflection with the key military officers on what it was all about. In the end the decision to use U.S. troops to control the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan was taken to prevent a vacuum from developing. ...

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The supporters of free university education bring up some practical and important points. Not providing free university education at a time of rising inequality after a severe financial crisis that worsened inequality and led to a lost decade for middle class families in the U.S. leads to a situation in university attendance is restricted to people from wealthier backgrounds. Studies in Britain show this says the Economist magazine.  A report by the Institute for Fiscal Studies, a think tank, showed an increase in tution fees paid out of pocket of 1000 pounds ($1243) is associated with adecline of 3 to 9 percentage points in university attendance. Work by Thomas Kane at Harvard University confirms this. Other studies in the U.S. show attendance and completion rates higher for university education with  education being more affordable. Results of studies also show that the tangle of application processes and eligibility rules can reduce the benefits of tackling this by the current approach of financial aid. For this reason free tution which is easy to adminster and easy to understand for all is the real option for today's situation. Wealthy students can pay for it later in life with the progressive taxation. Warren proposes higher taxes on multimillionaires, and Sanders would tax financial transactions such as on stock and capital markets, as ways to address this and bring back free university. As the Economist magazine for the first time  puts this in its Free Exchange column the real support for free university comes not from economic efficiency, or even the way it benefits all in a free, open and equal opportunities society, but from the values that society believes in. There are broad social benefits to a well educated citizenry. The nation is stronger economically, more open to new ideas and more open to technological change to be able to grow when it has promoted to the fullest extent the education of all its citizens. This is especially true in today's world where more than 12 years of education are needed to build a strong base for a country to grow its economy and industry. A warning is presented by the Economist magazine that as the rich pull away from the rest of society they can actually undercut the very values based solutions that are needed today. Their increased political power can restrict the tax increases needed to fund the higher education the nation deserves, that the people deserve.  Social safety nets are also reinforced and societal harmony is strengthened when everyone cooperates to help everyone.  ...

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Li Qiming gets a six year prison sentence for drunk driving and manslaughter. Defence lawyer says the legal process was flawed in this case.

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On taxes instead of $100 billion a year increase in the deficit that the 2017 tax cut of Biden's predecessor cost the Treasury -which benefited average Americans only $750 a year studies show, and reduced corporate taxes from 35% to 21% shifting billions to large corporations- Biden proposed $500 billon cut in the deficit by putting a 25% tax on 1000 billionaires in the US. Biden's guarantee that no one making less than $400,000 a year would pay an extra penny in taxes. Everyone would be better off, no one worse off. His predecessor's 2017 tax cut did not increase investment spending by companies which remained same as before. "There are 1,000 billionaires in America.   You know what the average federal tax rate for these billionaires is? 8.2 percent!  That’s far less than the vast majority of Americans pay.   No billionaire should pay a lower tax rate than a teacher, a sanitation worker, a nurse!  That’s why I’ve proposed a minimum tax of 25% for billionaires. Just 25%.  That would raise $500 Billion over the next 10 years." Only some of it would pay for the following the rest to cut the deficit- "Imagine what that could do for America. Imagine a future with affordable child care so millions of families can get the care they need and still go to work and help grow the economy.  Imagine a future with paid leave because no one should have to choose between working and taking care of yourself or a sick family member.    Imagine a future with home care and elder care so seniors and people living with disabilities can stay in their homes and family caregivers get paid what they deserve!  Tonight, let’s all agree once again to stand up for seniors! "       ...

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America has its own conversation points. Ischinger says we would love to vote in the US election as it affects us greatly. Americans would love to vote in the German and French elections as it affects us. As America fights to give workers and families their rights and invests trillions of dollars in infrastructure when will Germany and France do this? When will Germany and France fight to give all workers and families opportunity to get ahead and make a decent living? Are Germany and France aware that the Biden-Harris, Biden-Walz fight is for domestic policy to determine foreign policy and this is the domestic policy of America. Wolfgang Ischinger ,who heads the Munich Security Conference Foundation, writes in NYT about the importance of keeping the conversation with European allies going. He says US and European Union do not have a common policy towards China and this needs to be discussed and clarified. US and EU need to come closer for NATO to carry out it's mission now that the EU countries are shouldering a fair share of the defense burden in percentage of GDP devoted to defense. Ischinger says the Europeans are not investing defense dollars efficiently and developing European arms suppliers. His third point is that there should be consistent application of rule of law, democracy and western values in policy to build the alliance. He remains blissfully unaware that the same divisions that are fostered in America exist in Europe and some of them started in Europe- for Europe to be strong it must invest in its People, in workers and families and in infrastructure, domestic policy will become foreign policy.    ...

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Akasaki of Meijo University, Amano of Nagoya University, Japan, and Nakamura of UC Santa Barbara, produced blue light beams from semiconductors in the 1990's. Nakamura, working for Nichia Chemicals developed his own version of the LED in 1988 following the earlier efforts of Akasaki and Amano, leading to the development of a cheaper easier method of creating LED. The technology is also behind the blue ray disc by using blue lights much shorter wavelength to store 4X more information. Today it is the technology used in smartphone screens.

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That the IMF has returned to anew relevance is very much due to the leadership of DOminique Strauss Kahn, a former French finance minister who took the top post at the IMF in November 2007. It has committed $160 billion in ahost of credit lines and new loans to emerging countries and its lending capacity was boosted to $750 billion. Its ahuge turnaround in which the IMF went through alarge metamorphosis to deal with the global financial crisis. Still the Economist says not all is well, as the emrging countries China and India have paltry share in votes the IMF'S governance, Brazil's is less than Belgium's. This and the resistance of Europeans to change their disproportionate say in the IMF governance is shortsighted and shamefully so says the Economist. Fixing this should be a top priority at the G-20 Pittsburgh summit.

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Sony''s effort to buyout Ericsson's 50% stake in Sony Ericsson comes at the right time says Simms. There is potential to integrate all of Sony's products in music, movie and games to its tablet PC's and smartphones. And the joint venture with Ericsson is now outdated, only serving to slow down decisions. The problems Sony will have to overcome to do this is larger investments in new smartphones and a new strategy. Sony Ericsson racked up losses till 2010 when a shift to smartphones helped to make it profitable. Strategy Analytics estimates Sony Ericsson's share of the global smartphone increased to 4.1% in the 2nd quarter 2011 from 0.6% in 2008. Sony needs to increase its share of global smartphones to improve margins. Sanford Bernstein estimates Sony Ericsson's operating margin in 2011 will be 0.3%, compared to HTC's 15% and Apple's 40%.

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Prof. Scott Kennedy of the Research center for Chinese Politics and Business, voices concerns of experts who think that the $585 billion stimulus and the doubling of lending this year, increase in exports by a third last month, all point to an economy that is expanding too quickly. Kennedy says that no one defies economic laws, that eventually endless growth can get get you in trouble. The concern is whether the overexpansion of credit and the size of the stimulus may have led to overreaction in stimulus spending. People's Daily newspaper of China said that China's leaders are moving much faster than leaders of developed nations. But the flip side of this is that in the rush to increase spending there may be a lot of wasteful spending resulting in many bad loans a few years from now.

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Krugman makes these comments after a visit to Athens, Greece, in 2015. He sees discouragement in Greece with the negotiations between the Syriza government in Greece and the EU. Years of austerity and high unemployment are leading to fraying tempers in Greece, and impatience from Germany and the EU. Krugman says the irony is that the Syriza government was elected at a time when a settlement is possible. Greece has a small budget surplus and this should make it possible for a settlement to be reached, without a bad outcome for Greece and the EU of Greece's exit from the eurozone. The lack of experience of the new government leaders makes the situation more difficult, but Krugman says patience is needed on all sides because there is hope in the midst of pessimism for a way out of the crisis.

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The top three books in Vanguard's recommended reading list for serious investors say its not more profitable to get into complex investments and strategies- simple investment approaches of putting money in Vanguard core funds or mutual funds of Vanguard and Fidelity are more likely to produce good performance. 2013 was another year in which this proved to be true, and to a remarkable degree. Hedge funds and complex strategies did worse than investing in broad index funds that produced about 29% in returns similiar to the rise in the broad market averages. Malkiel and Ellis suggest the simple approach in Elements of Investing. Swensen in Conventional Investing, and Bernstein in Four Pillars of Investing provide evidence of the wisdom of such an approach for serious investors. All four authors are financial experts who have followed the stock markets for six decades since 1950.

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Industrial profits are down, but lending by banks is up dramatically for the stimulus. China's banks made $757 billion in new loans in just 4 months of 2009, more than in all of 2008. With corporate profits decliningthere will be more bad loans in the future. After the recapitalization of banks with about $475 billion at the time between 1998-2006, according to the Bank of International Settlements, Chinese banks are in better shape. Nonperforming loans account for about 2% of the loans. ANd China's deputy central bank governor Yi Gang says- " in a situation of financial crisis, rapid growth in leding does more good than harm. We should also consider the sustainability of the rapid growth of credit and the possible adverse impact." Banks for their part say they are not loosening their standards for lending.

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With housing, credit, the consumer and export markets all going out quickly in rapid sequence the predictions even with the Fed's stepping up to the plate with assets buildup to $5 trillion and the $1 trillion stimulus package Obama plans, it looks like 2009 and 2010 are going to be difficult years. After the 20% decline in 2008, BW's surveyed 45 economists see another 10% decline in house prices in 2009. Inflation sharply lower is expected down to 1.2% in 2009 from the 2.1% of 2008 end. The risks of a worse outcome than the 1973-75 and the 1981-82 downturns are high say economists at Citigroup and Chase JP Morgan, Global Insight. There is just too much happening at the same time and a self reinforcing dynamic that is not going to self correct anytime soon.

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A shocking fact about oversupply in one crucial industry. Automakers worldwide have the industry capacity to make 94 million vehicles. According to researcher CSM Worldwide the current sales in late 2008 reflects demand for 60 million vehicles worldwide. This is about 34 million extra vehicles and represents about 100 plants. Toyota has already cut production in Japan by 27% in November, the biggest cuts seen at Toyota in 30 years. The numbers for 2009 will reflect a deepening downturn from higher unemployment and lower spending. Not all of this capacity wil be cut as automakers will look for a rebound as customers replace aging vehicles, but as sales decline in Russia, China and emerging markets and in the USA and Europe, some consolidation will take place and many plants will have to close in the US, China, Portugal, Italy and Spain.

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This condensed adaptation of the book by McNish and Silcoff on the collapse of Blackberry with the launch of the iPhone, tells a story of complacency at Research in Motion. Supreme Court Justice Brandeis once said that complacency was like all the seven sins rolled into one. In the smartphone industry the results were lethal. RIM founders Lazaridis and Balsillie responded to the iPhone launch believing this would not affect Blackberry. The founders rationalized that what would determine success in the business was security, battery life, ability to type, and using less capacity so as not to strain networks, areas in which RIM was strong and on which it had built its market presence. Design, using mobile to offer broad access to internet content, and the touch screen, were not seen as changing the very nature of the phone market. During the summer of 2007 many users shifted to the iPhone, and it cultivated a cult following using strategies Apple had honed on earlier product launches, reaching 1 million in sales. RIM was completely unprepared and could offer Verizon Communications a prototype called the Storm, which was launched hastily with product glitches still remaining. This happened in November 2008 and turned out to be complete disaster- initial sales were great selling 1 million units in 2 months of 2008, but reversed when almost all of the units were returned because the browser was slow and the clickable screen did not respond well. Nokia, another competitor, is also caught unawares sticking to its formula of success, when all the rules were being rewritten by Apple by showing what the new possiblilities were with the right technology in what one could do with a smartphone. Blackberry introduced a smartphone in 2012 by putting together a patchwork of licensed technologies. By this time Apple, Samsung and other competitors had captured significant market share, and the smartphone flopped. The successor Z10 also flopped in 2013. Nokia faced another problem- the inability to convert R&D, at times larger than Google and Apple, into new products, and the failure of management to grasp the potential of new technologies. According to a former employee, Nokia management turned down a internet ready phone with touch screen developed by its engineers in 2004....

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Mead points out that the world with an effective U.S. leadership based on democracy and the values we cherish is needed now more than ever, after the failures of the Bush and Obama administrations to provide the kind of balanced leadership all Americans can stand behind. A world without an effective and enlightened leadership from the U.S, is one in which the world could fall apart in regional rivalry, one in which the hundreds of millions of people in the poorer parts of India, China, Russia, Brazil, and other developing countries of the world, will have less opportunity to meet their aspirations for a better life. This is because a focus on development requires less regional rivalry and because serious missteps can reverse in a few years decades of economic progress as shown in the 2008 global financial crisis. More so because we live in an increasingly interdependent global economy. It is also the kind of world where suppression of freedoms and suppression of the opposition as in China and Russia, provides a wrong kind of message, a world in which we or our children would not want to live in. Russia, India and China, are too driven by rivalry and lack the deep experience to go it alone, multipolar is more likely to end up being multipolar rivalry leading to a race to the bottom, which would be bad for all, especially for the poor in Asia and the developing world. The 2008 crisis showed what some serious economic mistakes could do to employment and incomes in the world with output dropping by a third in most places. Political missteps could lead to a slippery slope of this magnitude but more difficult to correct. Greater participation in the political process and more enlightened leadership is needed in all countries to allow many voices and greater interaction across boundaries, focussing on the dangers of such multipolar rivalries. The world of the G-7 is already moving to the G-20 where many voices are heard and serious discussion of differences takes place, but participatory is different from multipolar....