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One cocoa pod gives enough cocoa for one chocolate bar. Cocoa farms in Ghana and Ivory Coast are the world's largest producers of cocoa. Production declined in 2024 by about 25% in the two countries from bad weather with rain in the dry season and not enough rain in the west season. To protect farmers both West African countries decided to give farmers a fixed price for their cocoa. With surging prices farmers do not get to benefit from the higher price. Government fertilizer support is lacking.

With buyers in Europe insisting that no trees get cut on forested land for new farming, farmers are restricted to their old plots and have to take out old trees which costs more. As a result of these factors cocoa farms are shifting to other crops including palm oil in Ghana.

Other countries in West Africa including Cameroon and Nigeria are also producing cocoa. Outside of this region Ecuador and Brazil also produce cocoa.

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General Patrick Sanders former chief of the British armed forces tells graduates at Sandhurst Military Academy in the UK- "We have always fought with our backs to the wall. This is who we are.” “So if you fight, and my experience has been that you will, sooner or later, it will likely be as the British Army always has: isolated, overmatched in numbers, equipment and technology, with tenuous supply lines and before the country has mobilised,” he added. Reading US General Pershing's "My Experiences in the World War" one finds the same message about what he had learned from his experience leading the US Expeditionary forces that put one million Americans into France in 1917. US slow to mobilize in the face of unfolding German threat in Europe. Acting earlier the US Pershing believes would have had a decisive voice in settlement and not accepted the armistice that led to another world war. Every leader in that war trained under Pershing- Marshall, Eisenhower, MacArthur. ...

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During a critical 4 weeks in March 9 to April 9, 2025 Germany finds itself without a newly elected government following elections Feb 23, 2025. Only on April 9 is a new CDU/CSU and SPD coalition government in place led by CDU chancellor Merz. Tariffs came to the forefront, the critical issues of world trade and the effect on stock markets, without an elected government in place in Berlin to speak for the European Union and participate in discussions.  Japan's Ishiba and India's Modi offered the US some support as it sought to restore the world trading system to where it was before the serious distortions from China joining the WTO. Much of it the result of American companies outshoring American manufacturing and turning their backs on American workers, and the dignity and pride of workers who rebuilt the US and Europe, and Asia after the Depression and the Second World War.

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Jens Spahn, CDU leader and minister in Merkel's government says it is OK for Germany to leave the European Commission for Human Rights if it is slow to grasp that refugee status is about protection and also about how many asylum claims the people of a country are comfortable with. Denmark, Poland, Hungary and Austria, the UK and the US, and many Germans now feel this way and feel unease at the high levels of migration asylum, illegal and other that they face. Migration to Germany slowed but has picked up again. Failed states, economic distress, civil wars,  in Africa and Latin America have led to illegal immigration from Syria, Libya, North Africa, Arab world, Afghanistan, Central American countries and Venezuela. Is Asylum automatic? Are there decisions that have to be made in Europe and America if whole states are mismanaged or face climate distress or gang conflict leading to mass migration? These questions have to be debated and not decided by a Merkel at whim or some other leader. ...

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What US companies did not get early on is that as China's economy advanced local companies could make the same products for less and innovate to take a big share of the market. Ford exited China and GM took  $5 billion charge on its China business. Chinese makers of cars, EV's, laptops and cell phones have the major share of the market. In 2024 US companies chastened by their experience and failing to compete in China are reticent about tariffs impacting their market share in China. Other reasons China was growing at over 10% in the last year of Obama's second term. In 2024 China is struggling to reach 5%.  Following Covid, housing industry collapse, as US and Europe block China's exports, China's public is growing wary of spending. There are only 800 Americans studying in China in 2024 compared to 11,000 in 2019. There are 290,000 Chinese students in US. ...

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In central Switzerland the Trift  Glacier is nowhere to be seen. In its place is the Trift bridge, a valley and a lake that is a popular destination for hikers. Like thousands of glaciers elsewhere it has melted away with climate change. Switzerland's 1500 glaciers and melting ice generates hydropower that powers 60 percent of the country's electricity. More melting ice means an increase in hydropower generation by 4 percent. Yet this is temporary. Eventually the melting glaciers from climate change mean fewer glaciers and less hydropower. The Alps have the most glaciers in Europe and provide the bulk of Europe's hydropower. Multimedia reporter Ben Solomon provides an exciting look at awesome pictures and media showing the glaciers, mountain generating plants and hydropower in the Alps. A rare look inside the hydropower that produces 16% of the world's electricity, that is now endangered. Researchers at the Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich have a solution- to use the topography created by the melting glaciers including new lakes and areas that can be made into reservoirs that would be used to generate electricity. The glaciers in the Aletsch part of the Alps are one such region being studied. ...

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The head of Italy's statistics agency Istat, Enrico Giovannini, says Italy's manufacturing sector has performed quite well, and the problem is with the services sector, in lagging sectors such as transport, communications, tourism, retail and social services. The manufacturing sector is only one sixth of the economy. He says productivity is poor and there is lack of investment in human capital and information technology for the services sector. IT's contribution to growth in Italy's labor productivity is the lowest in Europe, according to the European Investment Bank. Italy's total efficiency gains declined one half percentage point from 1995-2005. Retail and tourism sectors lack the needed productivity gains. This means actions taken by prime minister Monti to change labor laws and related changes will not be enough to generate confidence in the economy and economic growth. Giovannini says investment in human capital and productivity is badly needed, and shifting education and training to where there are new job opportunities....

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How the failure to maintain government spending (in the face of higher deficits) hurt Portugal with economic growth at 1.3% in 2006 as the rest of Europe surged ahead at 3%, especially Spain.

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How did it come to this the 125% US tariff on China? China thinks it is it's success. American companies have deindustrialized the US taking out it's manufacturing by shipping it overseas destroying the American middle class and working class.  An insult to the American worker whose pride and dignity and efforts rebuilt the world after the Second World War helping Europe and Japan, China, rebuild. Pouille and Thibault of Le Monde of France look at how China advanced in the years 2004 to 2024 and surged from 9% of industrial production in the world to 29% more than US, Japan, Germany and India combined.   This is also the period of three wars Iraq and Afghanistan and Syria and two presidents Bush and Obama 16 years in which the US took its eyes of the ball and let this situation take hold, which would inevitably lead to a response from the US which started with US president DJT in 2016 and is now in its 10th year. Having failed to limit the China 2025 Plan so that there is no overconcentration of manufacturing in the world disproportionately affecting the rest of the world. The consequences for the rest of the world are clear to see with the 1.7 billion people in India and Indonesia who were late in industrialization by 10-15 years compared to China, the deindustrialization of Europe and the US as this enters its final stages leading to the fissures in the societies of Europe and the US, the destruction of the middle class. ...

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This editorial opinion in Economist magazine says the dangers of cutural illiberalism are very real as the candidacy of Donald Trump and the National Front's popularity in France's 2016 first round of regional elections have shown. This is the result of increasing economic anxieties of the white working class in America, and the working class in Europe. Only by increasing economic growth, and improving the economic prospects for broad sections of society can this be addressed, says Economist magazine. It says also needed is a robust foreign policy to address the terrorist threats as the Obama foreign policy lacks credibility with the public, giving rise to anti-immigrant sentiment in the U.S. and Europe.

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Under new CEO, Georges Plassat, Carrefour focusses more on Europe and reduces expansion in emerging markets. As part of this strategy Carrefour buys 127 malls in which it operates stores and forms a separate propoerty company in which it owns 42%. This reverses the decision in 2001 to sell 150 malls partly to finance the push into China, Brazil and Argentina and other European countries. The prior CEO, Lars Olofsson, increased emphasis on hypermarket stores and expanded presence in emerging markets. Carrefour share price took a 60% drop in 2010-2012 and is gradually recovering. Plassat's strategy is to go back to focus on Europe and withdraw from poorly performing places such as Greece, Portugal, Indonesia and Columbia.

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Security is at the heart of India's foreign policy. S. Jaishankar points this out at Thiruvanathapuram. He says this was true of the effort at Balakot and even in the midst of Covid at the Line of Actual Control with China when India sent up enormous numbers of troops to defend the border. This is also behind the stand with China that security and LAC comes first in all relations with China. Trade and exchanges all come in the context of LAC, settle the LAC issues first then we can proceed with better bilateral relations, this is what India is telling China.  There are good reasons for this. India has a large border in the most formidable terrain of the Himalayas which is also close to the plains of India in the LAC with China. Any difficulties at the border would weaken India's secuerity and weaken development efforts in the same way that Japan sought to weaken Chinese development through invasion in the 1930's. Tibet looms out of the past. When China invaded Tibet Nehru's couple of pages in Discovery of India on China show that he had no idea of the China that had emerged with Mao and the CCP in its historical struggle against Japanese nationalists and imperialists. He had an idea of China that came from the Buddhist period and India's links from the past. The ruthless Japanese invasion that China confronted on its soil, and British colonial incursions before that, had already transformed the China of the past, which now under Mao in 1948 may have sought more defensible borders by extending them to Tibet as a buffer state. Historically the British had never tolerated Russian or other European or Japanese interference in the border states such as Tibet. There was also the question of capacity. By the time of the invasion of Tibet in the early 1950's China had already fought the Korean War with the US. India's army and defense forces were just coming out of partition and ill equipped for the task of defending the borders in Tibet region. Current governments in a more normal setting cannot change this part of history, yet can take full recognition of the facts that this has created. A strong defense has to be created for defending a border that extends for thousand of miles now that China has unlawfully occupied Tibet. On it also depends a strong and vigorous development effort that helps build the kind of modern defenses as the economy grows and absorbs new technologies rapidly. Both defense and development go together, one cannot have defense without rapid modernization and development, and one cannot have rapid modernization and development without defense. A weak defense would lead to distractions in development leading to the lack of rapid modernization and development as the intruding power interferes in insidious ways in the internal and external links of the country. This is the lesson of colonial interference of western powers in Asia. As Brendan Simms shows in his new book, Europe - Struggle for Supremacy 1500 to the Present, it is also the lesson of a different kind of colonialism inside Europe since 1500, where weaker states inside Europe fell behind with interference in turns by the imperial powers of France, UK, Austria-Hungary, Prussia and Russia. Poland, Finland, Czech Republic in the past and even Ukraine today are just some examples of what can happen when one loses sight of this principle. Poland and the Polish Commonwealth in the 19th century, Hungary right down to 1956, and China in the 1910-1930, India in the 18th and 19th century were weakened internally even after recognizing the problem, so that recognition of the problem is not an adequate condition to prevent countries from facing such foreign interference. ...

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This report on Danish wind energy company Orsted, looks at the journey of the largest developer of wind energy in the world from a company sending natural gas from North Sea to Europe to a joint developer with Denmark's Vestas of offshore wind farms. Last year Orsted, pronounced Ehrr-sted in Danish for the O and named after a Danish scientist, decided to invest $57 billion in offshore wind farms by 2027. It was not easy and the path required a bold vision and bold action to invest in wind energy for the long term even as debt piled up from losses in natural gas competing with coal, climate change committments were not yet strong, subsidies were required to make wind energy competitive, and debt was piling up. It would take a decade of hard work and technological innovation to produce wind energy that could outcompete coal and natural gas on cost without subsidies. The year is 2009 with the Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen. The predecessor company to Orsted was losing money in natural gas with lower cost coal energy generation in Europe at the time. Yet the mood was changing governments were willing to invest in renewables. In 2012 a new CEO Paulsen did a review of 12 businesses of this Danish energy company and decided wind energy was the only one with long term prospects. The Copenhagen Climate Change Conference created new awareness for the need to come up with a long term solution for energy that has no negative health effects and is renewable. That Conference set a goal of 20% for renewable energy by 2020 in the total mix for Europe up from 14%. Paulsen saw an opportunity in the crisis at the company then called Danish Oil and Natural Gas. The new company was called Orsted and the old divisions in fossil energy were sold to invest in wind farms offshore. The way Paulsen saw the situation was that the company had to take radical action whether it wanted to do so or not. By 2012 Danish pension funds were investing in large offshore wind farms of Orsted, taking a stake of as much as 50% in the Nysted wind farm. The Danish government which owned 80% of Orsted thought its projects were risky. Hard work with Vestas which builds the turbines in Denmark paid off in developing a huge new turbine that would bring costs down 65% comparing 2020 with 2012.  In 2018 the European Union was spending about 92 billion euros or $112 billion on energy subsidies including to wind farms. Britain also heavily subsidized offshore wind farms such as Hornsea 1 at about $198 a megawatt hour for 15 years double the electricity price in recent years. Windy conditions and shallow waters in the North Sea were favorable. Technology was being developed with Vestas which would reduce the cost each year. By 2016 Orsted was listed in Copenhagen. The remaining oil and gas business was then sold for $1 billion. The returns are less in wind than coal and natural gas- about 7-8% a year but the big thing is that there is certainty in this compared to coal and natural gas which are volatile and uncertain. The lesson companies are learning in renewables is that with solar and wind technology can. bring down costs, a lot of hard work and creative work lies ahead, that crisis can be turned into opportunity for companies that can be focussed enough to produce results. ...

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The head of the Germany Program at Institut Montaigne in Paris, France, Robinet Borgomano looks at the renewal of German society under the ideas of "respect" put forward by Olaf Scholz of the SPD party. What does Olaf Scholz see as the main issue of our time? - Borgomano says it is the disintegration of European and American societies under the combined effects of technological progress and globalization. Where does Scholz get his ideas of "respect" for workers and families? Isn't Mr. Biden sharing the same ideas in the US? The SPD party got its start at the Bad Godesberg Convention in 1959 when it embraced the idea of a social market economy as a party of the people. Wily Brandt as chancellor from 1969 to 1974, whose personal struggle against the Germany of World War II was based in the Nordic countries, embodies best this renewal aspect of the SPD. Scholz sees his role as renewal of Germany, Europe, hand in hand with Mr. Biden's renewal efforts in the US on the same basic ideas of respect of the dignity of the worker and families that in Germany were seen with Wily Brandt and in the US with Harry Truman who followed FDR. Scholz rejects the overemphasis on the of merit in German society, European society, or American society, in the way it has taken shape in the last fifty years. Scholz cites Michael Sandel's Essay "The Tyranny of Merit" rejcting it because it makes a case for inequality based on merit, on capital allocation on an implied idea of merit of free markets managed in damaging ways for personal interest. It is wrong because it robs the worker and families of the basic dignity that is the right of every individual and of every person. It is wrong because it makes a false justification for growing inequality, and makes those who do not succeed feel that it is their fault. Meritocratic elites have made the idea that those who work hard and play by the rules get all the benefits and wealth even if the rules were first set in a way that benefits them alone. When these rules become implicit they are rarely questioned as happened in the period after 2000. It is not just in Europe and America that this happens, and not just in the 20th century.  Strange but true- During the 1850's in the heyday of industrialization in Britain the Ethnological Society of Britain justified the inequality between the British and Indians in the British Empire by saying Indians were inferior in exams and did not have the motivation or the aptitude and energy to excel in the way British students did. Dadabhai Naoroji, the first Indian member of the British parliament in Mr. Gladstone's Liberals singlehandedly took up the job Sandel and Scholz and Mr. Biden are taking on today to restore the respect of workers, farmers, and families in America and Europe and in all parts of the world. Sandel goes on to say what Scholz has heard clearly- "the parties that made the offer of upward mobility to workers and families have missed the insult implicit in it to a large number of working people." In a way it is going back to the roots, to the founding fathers in America who said in the 18th century that "all men are created equal and they are endowed by their Creator with certain inalienable rights, and among these are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness," -nothing less.   ...

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Compared to the situation in North Africa in 2016 with emigration to Europe and the migrant crisis happening without any preparation to prevent it in 2015-2016, Germany and France are acting in coordination with Russia and Turkey, Saudis, UAE, to provide stability to the region. Angela Merkel will host leaders Macron, U.S. Secretary of State  Pompeo, and representatives of foreign powers in Berlin to work out a deal for disengagement of foreign powers. Turkey and the United Nations support a government of National Accord in Tripoli which controls the west of Libya, and a Libyan-American Mr. Haftar has a militia that controls the south and east with the help of Egypt, UAE, and Russia. Earlier the U.S. under president Trump had distanced itself from the region, but Mr. Trump and his advisors now see the need to engage in the region to ensure stability, and support the Europeans in the effort to prevent the large scale emigration that threatens European unity. Europe following the 2015 Merkel migrant crisis is acting with the policy of heading off both wars, terrorism and economic dislocation that fuels emigration right at the points of origin, before it even starts. This shows that the French after action in Ivory Coast and Mali and the Germans with aid to Africa are remaining involved in development and stability programs in Africa, lessons learned from 2015. The goal of the Berlin meetings is to arrange high level agreement for foreign powers to withdraw from destabilizing the Arab regions in North Africa particularly Libya by supplying weapons and support to quarreling factions. ...

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The New World- Russia's new relations with US as US accepts Russia as a Northern European Power and Russia respects Monroe Doctrine of 1823 of American power in the western hemisphere in return. What the Europeans do not understand is that the new US policy will bring more oil to the market and cut oil prices to lows that will reduce the cost of living in US and Europe, and will also give Russia fewer dollars to fight the war in Ukraine. Denmark only foolishly calls it the end of NATO if Greenland becomes American as this will only make it difficult for the European nations against Russia. As DJT pointed out NATO is not much without the US and the US intends to stay with NATO. Germany had a long conflict with Denmark over Schleswig Holstein. Norway has disputed Denmark's claims to Greenland  till 1921.US Navy explorer Rear Admiral Peary discovered northern Greenland and claimed it for the US  in 1880's, and every US administration since 1867 with Seward till Harry Truman a Democrat in 1946 has wanted Greenland for the security of the US eastern seaboard, and called it in the words of the US Commanders in Chief in 1946 "completely useless for Denmark," vital for US security across the Atlantic from Greenland. ...

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Volkswagen restructuring in Western Europe. Note the price pressures in global markets and high import taxes in growth markets like Russia, China and India. This puts more pressure for restructuring Western European auto manufacturing.

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Companies in the U.S. and Europe that made internet surveillance technology available to the Gaddafi regime in Libya, according to the Wall Street Journal. This was used to suppress the democracy protests in Libya.

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A failed policy of the Obama administration in Syria leads to a situation in which chemical weapons are used by the Assad government without a response from the U.S. or its allies in Europe.

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Analysts fear an oil shock in 2012 similiar to that in 2008. There is similiarity in the situation now and in 2008- as in 2008, the surge in oil prices comes at a time of higher tensions with Iran and shrinking spare capacity. Spare capacity is at 2.5 million barrels a day on average for January and February 2012, according to the Energy Information Administration. This compares with 3.7 millon barrels a day for the same period in 2011. Part of the reason is that global oil demand is increasing in 2012 by 1 million barrels a day, to 89 million barrels a day. Technical and political problems have shutdown another 750,000 barrels a day. The problems begin to kick in during the second half of 2012. The U.S. ban on dealing with the Iranian central bank for oil trades starts in June 2012. According to the International Energy Agency, the EU embargo and U.S. sanctions will take 1 million barrels a day of Iranian crude out of the market. The result will be that demand exceeds supply by the third quarter by 1.1 million barrels a day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Use of existing reserves in Europe, the U.S. and other countries will make up the gap. The effect will be to put pressure on oil prices. May Brent crude on the ICE Futures Europe exchange was up to $125.81 a barrel, on March 16, 2012, and prices for April delivery were at $107.06 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange....

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Seib cites a career foreign service officer, William Burns, who says that China is offering its model of government as a competing model to that of the U.S. and Western Europe for Asian countries. He says he cannot recall a time in the last 40 years when China was doing what it is now in showing China as role model. Here Seib also mentions the Electoral College and the shift in demographics as creating strains for American democracy. The electoral college does not give enough weight to the largest states in deciding who wins the presidential election as happened in 2017- which gets worse in future years as people move to the west and southern states.

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Peggy Noonan says in this WSJ article that Republicans should not shy away from telling president Trump that his erratic style is affecting the entire Republican agenda on taxes, infrastructure, and economic growth. This follows the firing of FBI Director Comey, the president's tweets about Comey as a "nut job" and the media coverage, followed by appointment of a Special Counsel. Her concern goes back to U.S. democracy. Her friends in Europe tell her the U.S. is having a nervous breakdown with the behaviour of the Trump administration. She tells Republicans to tell president Trump that democracy is a serious thing, not something to be toyed with.

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Though the numbers are relatively small about 450 migrants crossing in small boats to Britain, the strong response shows the political sensitivity to border crossing in Britain. Britain called on the Royal Navy to patrol the waters in the English Channel. This comes at a time when the issue of Brexit is dividing Britons. The Brexit referendum Leave vote benefitted from pictures of the migrant crossings into Europe from the Mediterranean. Placed on buses these posters were very effective in promoting the Leave campaign, even though at the time  the migration shown taking place was not into Britain but on the borders of Turkey, Greece, Hungary and Germany. 

 

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Scholars and experts on the Middle East have offered their assessment and understanding of the Middle East seen through its long history. This includes Bernard Lewis at Princeton, Ramadan at Oxford, and Efraim Karsh of King's College, London. Karsh's new book "The Tail Wags the Dog," describes the story of British, Russian and American involvement in the Middle East in the 20th century and into the 21st century. Karsh offers a corrective assessment to many myths about the Middle East in 2015 with sectarian and religious conflicts, and historical volaltility- that the events in these countries are dependent on the foreign powers and influences. Karsh shows how the people in the Middle East have influenced their own narrative thorugh passions, conflicts and failure to bring together different opinions and strains of thought for peaceful progress. He sees the surge of Islamist politics in the midst of the Arab Spring as stemming from the way large parts of the population remained unaffected by the changes of twentieth century technological developments and modernization. The religious conflicts of the seventeenth century in Europe that took place just as Europe began to open up to new ideas and influences and the modern period, show how religious conflict can take place for long periods covering a continental region, before it recedes into the background. Ultimately it is the actors in these countries that have to find a way forward without engaging in continuous strife and violence, sectarian conflicts, and pulling together for a consensus around pushing economic development and progress. ...

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The US oil embargo in 2022 is not a big decision for president Biden. The US only imports 3% of its oil and 1% of its coal from combatant nations in Europe's east. 70% of the oil from that region cannot find buyers because of sanctions risk says the WSJ. This WSJ view from the Editorial Board says Biden's policy of not boosting US fossil fuels production is contrary to what makes sense in the current situation of high oil prices. Seen from the point of view of US commitments at COP26 Glasgow and global warming effects on the planet, president Biden's commitment to boost renewable energy and use this as an opportunity to make the US less dependent on fossil fuels presents an alternate perspective. One that is needed looking beyond the situation that is faced in 2022.