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Greg Ip of the WSJ provides this exceptional report offering readers remarkable clarity on what the Republican Tax Law does- its high and low points.  High Points 1. It reduces the corporate tax rate to bring it in line with other advanced industrialized countries. The corporate tax rate in Germany and Japan is 30%, in the UK it is 19%. For 5 years businesses can write off capital equipment immediately instead of depreciating over a couple of years. This could boost investment and growth. 2.  The law takes aim at deductions that led to distortions. It limits the mortgage interest deduction, and caps the deduction for state and local taxes. This removes the incentive to pay more for homes that exacerbated the housing crisis in 2008. The Alternative Minimum Tax is largely removed. The Low Points 1. The biggest drawback is that lawmakers did not properly fund the tax cuts. Of the 10 costliest tax breaks nine were not touched, including employer health insurance, retirement savings, capital gains. Only the state and local taxes deduction was reduced. And a new tax deduction  was created, a 20% tax deduction for small business (proprietors and partnerships) paying taxes on their individual tax returns. Taxes on the wealthy or value added taxes, reducing tax breaks, is how other advanced industrialized countries paid for the corporate tax cuts, but did not happen here. Additional economic growth  to generate added tax revenues is the way Republicans in Congress say this is funded. Yet this is a questionable assumption as Britain reduced the corporate tax rate to 19% without seeing a surge in economic growth, as Greg Ip pointed out in an earlier WSJ article. At best the Joint Committee on Taxation estimates $500 billion over a decade in added revenues from added growth leaving $1 trillion to be added to the deficit. The WhartonPenn Budget Model (WPBM) estimates only $140 to $367 bill from the additional economic growth resulting in added tax revenues. Under this model only 0.03 to 0.08 percent added U.S. economic growth per year is expected from the Republican Tax Cuts. Such a situation would be bad  for the U.S. as the gradual improvement in Debt to GDP ratio to 78% following the financial crisis of 2008 would be sharply reversed taking the ratio to 97% by 2027. An unsustainable trajectory which will require tax increases in a few years and hurt investment in education, health and infrastructure into the future. This is what worries many experts most on both sides of the political spectrum today about what the Republican Congress has pushed through for a legislative "victory." This is why experts believe this is not serious tax reform and will require a new effort after 2019.   ...

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Prime minister Boris Johnson says he will proceed with "maximum caution" as he plans reopening of the economy. The reproduction R ratio for the virus is just below 1.0 and may have gone up recently, say public health officials. Britain faces a problem of deaths in care homes that is not under control.

Prime minister Johnson will announce Sunday new moves which will be limited- allowing people to go out to take as much outdoor exercize as they like, and restart activities such as tennis, golf and fishing. Businesses will get guidance to prepare places for social distancing when people return to work. Restrictions on limiting people contact to those within their household will remain.

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The political situation is evolving in France as the En Marche movement that Mr. Macron founded loses its majority in parliament. Seven members earlier left to join a centre right party Agir. Seven members last week started a new centre left party called Ecology.

The pandemic has resulted in a new political environment with a shift back to popularity of France's traditional state directed model with careful attention to infrastructure, health and public services to improve the quality of life. En Marche is shifting in this direction. Recent political shift to the centre right Republicans in Lyon has left En Marche without a significant presence in France's second largest city where it was founded.

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Summit County median rents in the towns of Breckenridge, Dillon, Frisco, in the Rocky Mountains near Denver, Colorado now exceed $4000. This pushes low paid workers making $36,000 a year serving tourist visitors to the state further away to longer commutes along stretches of rural highway. This NYT report looks at the different lives in the state with 70% of homes vacant or rented out in Summit County as second homes, and the two different worlds based on family wealth and the workers serving these communities. The lack of affordable housing near resorts. Breckenridge and other communities in the Rocky mountains are giving homeowners thousands of dollars to add deed restrictions to limit renting to local residents.

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Biden as president for 2024 and the matter of age is the subject of this report in WSJ. For too long the press has looked at president Biden's age as drawback ignoring his vast experience, and not Trump's only 3 years younger with poor food and exercise habits and overweight, as pointed out by Duke University Prof. Frank Bruni in the NYT. Here the WSJ at last shows that half of Americans born in 1942 are alive, with many of them about 650,000 working, 18% more than a decade earlier, according to Census Bureau. The saying is that 80 years is the new 60, because of advances in medicine, given healthy habits and exercise. 

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Outrage and anger at the plan by voters and taxpayers across the country on September 24, 2008. A clear appreciation by voters that this plan's eventual cost could leave a future administration without the money to build infrastructure, education rebuild health care.

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A long transport strike and street protests have not affected the pension overhaul of president Macron in France. The French parliament will review the changes to the pension system that consolidate 42 different pension plans into one universal pension plan that seeks to be fair, reflect current conditions including longer life expectancy, and to make the plan financially viable. Other benefits are that it would be more transparent and enable workers to change jobs or careers, says Health Minister Ms. Buzyn.

Macron's new system for pensions calculates pension payments based on the entire salary history of an employee. Previously pension payments were calculated based on 25 highest paying years for private sector employees, and for civil servants on the last 6 months of salary before retirement.

Parliament will debate the new rules in February and the plan is likely to be passed by this summer because Macron has a large majority.

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The University of Washington Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation has doubled its forecast of coronavirus deaths in the U.S. to 135,000, about twice what it is today at 69,000, by early August 2020. This is based on the assumption that with reopening the economy and return to actively operating in offices and shops, in construction and factories, the social distancing will be relaxed. Factors such as rising temperatures are not seen as offsetting the increased mobility in reopening. Dr. Fauci, top U.S. infectious disease official said on My 4, that the relaxing of social distancing could get a rebound started considering the coronavirus "phenomenal capabilities of spreading like wildfire." There is concern that the cases may be much higher in Brazil where there is not much testing, even higher than in the U.S. according to one university study. Argentina is a contrast having imposed a lockdown much earlier and has only 246 coronavirus deaths. ...

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Australian prime minister Scott Morrison says "global health trumps everything else," that " we need to have the information, and we need to have the transparency." Australia is seeking support from other countries in an effort to launch an investigation into missteps early in the crisis that have led to the epidemic spreading to millions of people around the world. China has rejected such an investigation. It has threatened retaliation with a consumer boycott of Australian beef and wine, and tariffs on barley. Australia tightened its laws on foreign interference and counterespionage in 2018. U.S. and European calls for an investigation into coronavirus origins is making Australia reconsider its trading relationship dependence on China. India has stepped up its vigilance of Chinese investment so that state backed entities do not acquire local companies affected by the pandemic. Japan has set aside $2.2 billion of its pandemic support package to help Japanese companies shift their supply chains out of China. ...

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The pandemic has affected Brazil, and Peru, Ecuador, the worst in Latin America. Countries where there was a lack of funding for public health and no consensus on how to tackle the crisis such as Brazil have done worse. Brazil has 11 deaths per 100,000 people compared to just 1.0 for Argentina. Chile with a political crisis and months of protests has no consensus in the country. It has done worse with 4 deaths per thousand and 95% of intensive care beds in the country taken, leaving hospitals overburdened and in stressful conditions. 

In Argentina the lockdown has been extended till June 7 and there appears to be a consensus on the government's approach to the crisis. Mexico under president Obrador decided to reopen earlier and now faces more coronavirus cases. Reopening the economy so that people in the informal economy could provide for their families was a priority for president Obrador. 

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Concern about the spread of the pandemic in the U.S. with the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday and travel to visit family and friends. Seen from Australia and other countries American fatigue with staying at home is cause for concern. Yet this is not entirely American as governments in France plan to have a phased reopening by Christmas, with phase 2 partial lifting of restrictions of the lockdown on December 15. Austria has turned down German requests to close Austrian ski resorts that have cause spread in Europe. The Swiss have also kept ski resorts open. During the summer Croatia and parts of Spain kept open tourist spots to help the economy recover creating the conditions for spread as tourists went back home. 

Beyond this there a complex web of choices. From mental health to hospitals filling up, from jobs and income for service workers to people in nursing homes, all calling for different responses. 

 

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This report about 996, referring to nine am to nine pm 6 workdays a week, shows it is becoming highly unpopular among tech workers in China, as tech companies slash jobs and workers work longer hours. A campaign on GitHub a code sharing platform is called 996/ICU speaks of such gruelling hours as the way to end up in the ICU. It got 250,000 positive user comments.

This type of work at tech companies is leading to fatigue, chronic illness, stress and lack of any free time to think or even exercize, leading to health problems. Yet some company CEO's push 996 against the mounting evidence that this is not the best for employees and can lead to por producivity. Recent studies about the cities such as Mumbai, India, or Tokyo, Japan, show productivity is a fraction of the productivity in many European countries working normal hours. Mumbai vs. Dublin for example. Dublin has a lot higher productivity.

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Medical insurance choices are complicated for a reason. This WSJ report says a PhD. is not sufficient to figure it out. They were designed this way to maximize profits from a government program by private insurers and capture as large of the market for the Medicare Advantage plans they offer. Heavy lobbying in Congress makes it possible to write legislation that keeps selecting coverage complicated.  The only way to clean up this mess is through universal health insurance, that is UN's SDG 3.8,  that is fair for all, which everyone can understand, and the US as an advanced technological nation can support. Reducing transparency works with heavy advertising for private insurers with Medicare Advantage Plans to capture the largest chunk of what the government spends. Medicare Advantage insurers capture $943 billion of spending on Part A & B Benefits compared to $693 for traditional Medicare. 

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Farming vegetables causes less greenhouse than livestock production. Climate experts say people should eat more vegetables for better health and for slowing greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change.

Consider that studies show farming and other land use account for about a fourth of all greenhouse gas emissions, and about half of methane gas emissions are released into the atmosphere from cattle and rice fields. Meat in particular has more greenhouse gas emissions. 

Climate experts say the nutritional value of wheat grown in higher CO2 areas is 6% to 13% less for protein, and 5% to 8% less for iron. Another problem aggravating the situation is that drought has grown 1% a year between 1961 and 2013, IPCC researchers have found. This is a result of the growing climate change issues. Drought and nutrition is a major problem in India and Africa.

 

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Italy is planning to place a quarantine in the north covering the region around Milan and 11 provinces nearby, in a draft decree from the prime minister's office, says this report in the WSJ. When a final decision is made the quarantine would go into effect March 8 and go on till April 3, 2020. This move is similar to the quarantine steps taken in China which helped limit the health crisis in China from coronavirus. The new decree also includes tight restrictions on travel in the affected areas. 

The new action is being taken as earlier measures have not limited the spread of coronavirus. They were requested by the government in Lombardy, which combined with Emilia Romagna and Veneto are the worst hit of the regions in northern Italy with about 85% of cases. It also means the industrial economy with 40% of GDP is affected.

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The higher risk of infection in counties in the U.S. that did not impose stay at home orders and enforce them is shown in this report in the NYT. Florida has counties in the list and the state only imposed a lockdown in the state as a whole on March 25. People in Jacksonville and Tampa continued to travel at a higher rate than people in other parts of the country says this report in NYT. In Louisiana not till March 20 weeks after after Mardi Gras celebrations in New Orleans was travel reduced significantly. 

It takes 2-3 weeks of this higher travel to show up in data about infected people. Dr Fauci, the leading health expert on the crisis, says the impact of following the stay at home lockdown shows up in the reduced level of new cases in many areas, making this change in behaviour very critical.

 

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US aid to Ukraine shifts to the long term. Republicans ask the president and Democrats to leave Ukraine aid on a stand alone basis and not mixed with other health or budget requests where there are differences. Republicans want to move quickly on aid to Ukraine as the invasion on the east of Ukraine builds up. In comments earlier this week Mr. Biden told a national audience in a televised speech that he wants to make Ukraine aid to be ongoing as this could be a long effort to resist the Russian invasion. Ramstein now has a new symbolism - US Joint Chiefs head Gen. Mark Milley was clear about it- "The outcome of this battle, right here today, depends on the people in this room." The battle is one in eastern Ukraine. Defense Secretary Austin was clear about also clear- "the war had galvanized the world." About 40 countries were represented at Ramstein base, some virtually. There was a sense that the previous symbolism with Anglela Merkel and Mr. Steinmeier and Mr. Schroeder may have emboldened Russia into invasion of Ukraine. ...

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The contrast between Carlos Tavares and Elon Musk can be seen in this exchange between Mr. Trump and Mr. Musk. Carlos Tavares plans a big manufacturing effort for Stellantis in electric cars- 75 models by 2030- with a very different culture than that of Mr. Trump and Mr. Musk, that builds on the dignity of each worker and family. Social media is used by Mr. Trump and Mr. Musk for their own benefit, by manipulating culture and beliefs including how capital of society should be allocated away from HEIRS (Health, Education, Infrastructure, Retirees, and Societal needs). Absent Mr. Musk America would still be producing electric cars as is evident from the intense competition between the major car companies and their complete switch to electric on a scale needed for tackling climate change. Who is the better role model for young people in the US or Europe? Carlos Tavares with his simplicity and caring for dignity of workers or Donald Trump, Elon Musk with their rancorous exchanges and comments, and extravagant behaviour.     ...

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Viewing people as "pass throughs for units of fiscal stimulus" that is no longer an option, no longer wise, no longer possible. Brian Deese, US president Biden's economic adviser, uses this sentence as he describes the approach of president Biden in putting together a $2 trillion plan to invest in infrastructure and in the people of America. He compares 2009 to 2021 and talks about the differences then and now after the pandemic. The coronavirus pandemic exposed all the weak spots in the American fabric and society and in the way national life was organized. Today the pain is felt in socio economic groups throughout the country.    US president Biden wants to make a decisive impact with large investments in infrastructure, education, health and jobs. In American manufacturing competitiveness and in America's technological advancement. The investments made in 2009 were in simple recovery mode, this time the investments are intended to bring America back to its position in the world after 1945, the hope and the optimism for a better future. ...

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Sabrina Tavernise writes about vaccine skeptics in the US. She sees it as a problem about gut beliefs. It is prevalent among people of different political views, not just conservatives. The misinformation on vaccines has made people who normally would be open to getting vaccinated a bit leery. Because of the flood of information spread in today's hyper sensitive news environment, including misinformation. Tavernise describes how different people in the US tackle the decision to get vaccinated or not and how this leads some to simply postpone getting vaccinated. Britain tackled this problem of spreading misinformation on vaccine effectiveness or risks early. It also helped that in Britain there is a very high regard for the National Health Service, the NHS. In Germany and also in France there was increasing skepticism in the beginning, yet this is reversible as there is growing recognition of the benefit of taking the vaccine in Germany and France. Much can and needs to be done to create public confidence and limit the spread of misinformation that leads to postponement of vaccination at a time when variants are becoming more contagious. ...

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PM Modi's Jal Jeevan mission In India for clean tap water for 1.4 billion people even in the Himalayan regions can be seen in the context of water scarcity across the developing world in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, with 1 in 2 persons facing water scarcity. And there is further the problem of contaminated water. It shows that it is possible if there is the will to do it and the resources dedicated to do it. Not only is it harmful and reduces health with diseases it considerably undermines women and girls in society. This is shown in ads for Jal Jeevan mission with a mother and her daughter on Indian television with the daughter telling her mother that PM Modi and the government have brought tap water to the village and it need not be carried long distances from wells, the mom incredulous till she realizes it is true and hugs her daughter. It may be the most memorable of television public service ads on Indian  television in a long long time and shows the immense changes in the world's most populous region even overcoming the challenges of the pandemic. ...

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It took 25 years for the US to recover from the 1929 stock market disaster and the Great Depression. It took Japan 25 years to recover from the 1989 stock market collapse and the lost decades since. It is finally emerging from that period with a healthier economy and business structures. China faces a situation today of a struggling economy after years of excessively rapid growth that hurt the environment and climate and health. And the uncertainty that faced Japan after 1989 also faces China in 2024- growth is never linear over very long periods and has pull backs that could stretch for decades much too familiar for Japan. For India there are lessons to be learned from Japan's and China's experience. In environment not to risk polluting the environment as China experienced with breakneck unchecked growth, to be mindful of bringing up all sectors and parts of the population, and to manage growth so that the basic instability that resulted from excessive shift to China of manufacturing and deindustrialization in US that led to worsening trade and people to people relations between US and China is not repeated. ...

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President Trump plans to give "a very, very positive message" in his third State of the Union message on February 4, 2020. This comes one day after the chaos of the Democratic Iowa caucuses and a day before the president's certain acquittal in the Senate for impeachment charges of obstruction of justice and abuse of power. The president is likely to avoid partisan jabs to focus on his economic record. The theme is "the Great American Comeback." Mr. Trump will emphasize what he has called "the blue collar boom," the ways his policies are helping the middle class, aides say. The president will point out his administration's efforts for working families, for paid family leave, affordable child care, lowering cost of prescription drugs and health care.White House speechwriters writ much of the text, with policy suggestions from key government agencies taken in. Mr. Trump makes edits with a marker, and thinks about the best way to get points across till the last minute, something that comes easily to him with his colloquial style. ...

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AP/NORC poll March 2023 shows 7 out of 10 adults in the US feel that the US is spending too much on development assistance when the budget for USAID is $40 billion. In general Republican administrations prefer foreign aid to be adminstered by the State Department not a separate agency. USAID was setup during the Cold War with the Soviet Union by president John F. Kennedy in 1961. Today it adminsters programs for HIV/Aids and for pandemics, health programs that can be done through the State Department. Attitudes have shifted following the pandemic with 9 out of 10 Republicans opposed to foreign aid through USAID. Some of the criticism is that it funds bureaucrats favorite programs. The actual impact is now uncertain in the developing of an economy. For example Sri Lanka benefits more from aid and development assistance from neighbor India than from programs of USAID as it tackles the current economic crisis following the pandemic. India pulling together the aid through IMF for Sri Lanka, and the investment in energy from India is way more important than the small USAID programs.  ...