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This story in the WSJ shows how the Phase 1 deal between the U.S. and China was negotiated in November and December 2019. As a bargaining chip for negotiations on a Phase 2 deal the U.S. has preserved tariffs of 25% on $250 billion in imports from China, and the reduced tariff  of 7.5% on $120 billion of imports. In Phase 1 Mr. Trump convinced the Chinese leadership that he was serious about going ahead with further tariffs to cover all of China's exports to the U.S.by a December deadline. This was also Mr. Kushner's message to the Chinese ambassador. In talks China gave easy concessions on agricultural imports and offered to buy twice the amount of soyabeans and other food imports- which helps Mr. Trump with farmers in the U.S. At the same time difficult concessions on enforcement to change subsidies to Chinese state owned companies were put off. China formally says it is an issue of Chinese sovereignty. It is also seen as a part of the Chinese business model that is working and China is in no hurry to change this. It has offered to step back from asking foreign companies to transfer technology in exchange for market access. On technology issues and subsidies the tough negotiating issues on which the U.S. has insisted for changes, China has held back. Phase Two is not likely to happen at least not till after the election, as China wants to be able to develop its own technology rivaling the U.S. and Europe, without the kind of formal enforcement the U.S. is demanding. In the long run it plans a shift to an economy that is less dependent on the U.S. for imports which may be in the interest of both countries, as U.S. manufacturing has shriveled over two decades hurting American jobs as a result.   ...

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The BBC looks at some of the claims made by president Trump about India's rapid progress in delivering services to the people in electricity, sanitation, roads infrastructure, cooking gas, internet connections. BBC confirms that the economy size is now 6 times that in 2000, as Mr. Trump stated on his visit to Ahmedabad. It was in terms of the total value of all goods and services in the economy or GDP at $477 billion (IMF figures) in 2000. In 2019  it is $2,940 billion.  270 million fewer people were living in poverty in 2016, this is confirmed in a UN report. Here is the list for services as checked by The BBC. 1. Providing electricity to every one of the 600,000 villages in India. By 2014 most of the villages were electrified- at 96%. It is defined as having schools, health centres and 10% of households having electricity in each village. 2. About 600 million people having access to toilets under the Clean India mission launched in 2014. 100 million new toilets were built. 3. 70 million women were given access to cooking gas. 80 million new connections were built. 4.  320 million new internet subscribers. The figure is low about 600 million total internet subscribers. 5. It is true that infrastructure building is moving quickly says the BBC. About 10,000 kms were built in 2018-19 double that in 2013-2014 under a previous administration. The Mumbai Metro is mentioned in the WSJ as a project that has made remarkable progress. A bullet train project is moving ahead with Japanese financing and technological help from Mumbai to Ahmedabad.  Access to banking accounts and direct deposit of government transfer payments to all Indians is another project. Healthcare access through health care payments directly for health care costs incurred for low income families is another more recent project to reduce the uncertainty and improve finances of poorer citizens. ...

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McGurn of the WSJ looks at the Gallup study on Trump supporters showing that they are older and white, but not more likely to come from communities adversely affected by trade competition. The study shows intergenerational mobility, health prospects, and relative racial isolation, more likely blue collar workers, as being key features, yet more likely to be employed or self-employed. Of this cultural angst, and lack of intergenerational mobility, poor health prospects, are critical findings. McGurn sees them as the people who feel left behind, and says the nation needs to look at them not as "losers" but to address the problems of intergenerational mobility in the U.S. following the election. Theresa May, the new prime minister of Britain has described the "burning injustice" in her first speech when taking office, in a reference to people who suffered under the 7 years of austerity programs in the Cameron years, people from similar groups who face a situation where their children's prospects are no better or worse than their own. ...

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The Trump administration is set to impose 15% tariffs on $156 billion of Chinese goods including laptops, mobile phones, and apparel, on December 15, 2019. This is in addition to the tariffs already in place on $361 billion of Chinese goods. The new list of goods for the tariffs on December 15 are goods that are made mostly in China. About 87% of the goods on this list are made only in China. If talks fail with China by this week the tariffs will go into effect. WIth this tariff all goods imported from China will have tariffs on the goods imported into the U.S. adding to the difficulties facing the Chinese economy. A recent article in the WSJ shows China is shifting to higher skilled manufacturing and the service sector to maintain jobs growth.

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The U.S. plans to withdraw from the 1987 Nuclear Treaty with Russia that banned development of missiles that fly from 300 to 3400 miles. The 1987 Treaty was signed at the height of the Cold War by presidents Reagan and Gorbachev. The U.S. says the missile system set up by Russia in 2017 violates the Treaty and puts the U.S. at a military disadvantage. Russia denies it is violating the Treaty. The withdrawal will take place over 6 months. If Russia does not restore compliance with the Treaty in 6 months the U.S. will withdraw.

U.S. president Trump says the U.S. will not remain constrained by the Treaty while Russia misrepresents it actions. Russia has placed importance in the deployment of the Novator 9M729 missile and insists it is in compliance with the Treaty.

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Progressive caucus in the US House of Representatives led by Pramila Jaypal, a first time Indian American Congresswoman defeats an attempt by Josh Gottheimer of the Problem Solvers caucus to separate much of the president Biden's agenda in health, education and social policy and risk it being defeated by Senators Manchin and Sinema in the US Senate. Without the efforts on child care, education and health, climate change and social services part of the Biden Workers and Families Plan much of the Biden agenda would remain unfinished and Democratic party promises not kept. This also means that Manchin a Senator from West Virginia with a population of 1.8 million and Arizona with a population of 7.2 million, both conservative leaning Democrats could sink the entire agenda of president Biden to support American families and workers for a population of 331 million people. That two states with a population of less than 3% of the American population could sink the entire agenda of president Biden shows how fragile a situation has been created within the Democratic party to support workers and families even during the pandemic following the leadership of Carter, Clinton, and Obama Ms. Jaypal, a three term Congresswoman from Seattle, Washington state, was first elected in 2016 with an endorsement from Bernie Sanders who was the Democratic Party's leading candidate for president till the late stages of the 2020 US presidential primaries. Bernie Sanders says of Jaypal- "I think she is doing an extraordinary job. And I think the Progressive Caucus is doing an extraordinary job." Sanders founded the Progressive caucus after getting elected to the Senate from Vermont 30 years ago. Even though it is hard to imagine the Democratic party being the Democratic party without bold policies in climate change, affordable housing, reducing income disparities,  investing big in childcare, education and healthcare, attempts were being made to sink the entire Democratic party and national agenda going back to Franklin Roosevelt. Jaypal is described in the WSJ as diplomatic and firm, saying "I am so proud of our caucus; I have never seen our caucus so strong. And I am a very good vote counter also." Fifty members of the 100 member Progressive Caucus held firm in support of president Biden's original agenda without which the president would have little to show in keeping promises he made to the American people in the election and little to differentiate him from Mr. Trump who also supported infrastructure spending. Separating the infrastructure bill would have risked sinking Mr. Biden's plan for recovery of America from the pandemic and the devastating policies pursued by American presidents in the last two decades. Policies by previous presidents that have impoverished the country, created huge income disparities, weakened America in the world in trade and technological leadership, and wasted resources in foreign wars. There are no centrists or far left- these are just labels. When Ms Japal said "Let's just remember the Speaker (Nancy Pelosi) is a great champion of this agenda. I think she was trying to do as much as she could to get this done," she could have said it is Mr. Biden's own agenda pushed forward with conviction to help workers and families during the pandemic, and build a solid American recovery, restore American leadership in the world. Pramila Japypal is the first Indian American woman in the US Congress, and one of only two dozen naturalized American citizens in the US Congress. That she could play such a critical role for good in the US Congress shows that with the right convictions, determination, experience, much can be done for the common good in America and the world.   ...

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Russians vote in 2021 parliamentary elections. With 30% of votes cast the United Russia party of Mr. Putin wins 45% of votes cast, followed by the Communist party of the Russian Federation with 22%, and the Liberal Democratic party getting 8%. Russia has mixed voting system with half the seats directly elected from party lists, and the other half assigned to individual candidates. United Russia had 334 seats out of total 450 seats in the outgoing parliament. Putin will need over 300 seats in the new parliament to get the two thirds majority to enact changes to the constitution. Putin needs this to extend his current term which ends in 2024.  Putin draws most of his support from the older part of the population that has seen the hardships imposed following the collapse of Communism around 1990. This led to collapse of the ruble currency, increase in poverty, an effort by oligarchs to capture state enterprises, and a chaotic period for law and order. Shockingly during that period even life spans of Russians declined as reported in the WSJ. Liberals who supported the shift to democracy had not anticipated all the ill effects of introducing capitalist free market systems in such a sudden and free fall way. Such sudden shifts to free markets are now better understood and seen as the wrong way, as western capital markets fail without inbuilt protections, safety net for workers and retired people, and are subject to serious distortions if no vigilant authority exists. This is in reality not a free market but a market captured by the few, in the interests of the few. Once this was clear retired people, pensioners, military, law enforcement, and liberals realizing what had happened shifted support to United Russia founded by Mr. Putin. Mr. Putin faces the typical situation faced by incumbents over long periods where there is a sense of the need for change. Yet the pandemic and other economic crises that could happen in the event of mismanaged economy are never really too distant for countries such as Russia, China, India that are developed but yet have not the strong industrial base of US, Germany, France. Such economic crises including the ruble currency and Russian energy companies were better managed under Putin than under the chaotic period following the collapse of communism and the introduction of so called "free markets" that were anything but. During the recentfree fall in oil prices Putin was able to manage a transition period with the help of president Trump who negotiated a price for oil with the Saudis to protect US shale oil workers and companies, as well as Russian workers and oil companies. As a result Russians particularly young people look for alternative places to vote for opposition parties such as Liberals, Communist party, and other parties. But the majority of Russians including those working for state energy and other state companies tend to stay with Putin's choices for state, regional and federal administration and for parliament. Nationalist spirit also provides additional support as Putin has restored Russia's status as one of the important nations in the world. Some missteps such as interference in US elections have led to a loss of some of this international influence, yet even president Biden understands the situation in Russia and is willing to work with Putin with new rules of conduct Under the Russian system about 70% of the laws are not made by parliament but are done by the government and the administration of the president and then go through parliament. In addition to parliamentary vote there are 6 governor races and three races for heads of regional republics. ...

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Following the fifth North Korean nuclear test DW.com talks with Rudiger Frank about the test and what this means. Frank says the negotiations with North Korea and efforts to limit the program so far have been a colossal failure. Tests have continued and without a change in strategy more tests will be followed by the usual condemnations by world leaders and further sanctions. Frank says this change in strategy would include recognizing North Korea as a nuclear state, and getting North Korea to ensure the weapons are safe and secure in the country, getting a clear idea of what and where the weapons are. The International Atomic Agency would be asked to go in and make inspections. The next step would be to freeze the program at some level agreed to. This is a tough step to take but it only recognizes the reality of the situation, and continued development by North Korea of nuclear weapons if no steps for change are taken. 

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There are differences between the governors of 10 worst hit states and the president of the U.S. on when to reopen the economy. The seven on the East Coast including New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and three on the West Coast including California and Washington, all but one have Democrat governors and want to wait beyond May 1, till it is believed to be safe to reopen.190,000 of the 592,000 infected cases and over 10,000 of 25,000 cases of deaths are from New York alone. This is as though a third of the problem is in one state. The feeling in New York is that it should be the last to reopen, other states can go first in the middle of the country. The position in the U.S. Constitution is for states to maintain public order and safety. This was the basis of the president's position to work with the governors and continues to be the case, though there is pressure from economic advisers to the president to reopen earlier balanced by the opinion of health experts around the president.  Some states are taking action to reopen because the virus has not severely affected these states. President Trump says it is for governors to decide what is best for each state in consultation with the federal government. The U.S. government would step in if a state is taking risky action with the coronavirus. On the issue of whether the president could have acted quickly in February following his decision to stop flights from China and set up quarantines in January, the BBC has this to say. Dr. Fauci, the president's respected health expert was one of many public officials who did not see the magnitude of the crisis evolving with lack of good information from China. BBC North America Editor Jon Sopel cites Dr. Fauci's comments on February 13- that the coronavirus danger is "just miniscule" compared with the "real and present danger" of flu. As it happened the president acted alone in his sense of the danger from the outbreak in China through incoming flights and not relying on others. Here is what the situation of each country on reopening is- India -  has extended the lockdown to May 3. France - has extended the lockdown till May 11. U.S. - has extended the lockdown to May 1. States are taking the responsibility. UK - continues lockdown restrictions till May. The French president Macron had a simple answer to the question " when will we be able to get back to a normal, prior life?" Macron said "Quite frankly, humbly, I have no definitive answer to that." Some nurseries and schools will reopen May 11. Not restaurants, hotels, museums and theaters. By May 11 France will be able to test and quarantine anyone with symptoms and general public masks will be available to all. This is what Dr. Fauci in the U.S. also wants to see before being able to reopen, that testing and tracing, isolating, procedures be efficient and reliable. ...

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New information from the Mueller Report as it is revealed to the public on April 18, 2019, after a short report and defense from Attorney General Barr. Barr faces heavy criticism for his handling of the Mueller Report.

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This WSJ editorial on Joe Manchin's role in aggravating child poverty cites a University of Chicago study "that child poverty would fall only by 22%" after considering decline in employment from the Biden child tax credit, as if this was OK. It argues against "hooking more families to income transfers" and this itself looks callous during the pandemic. It says faster economic growth is the best way to reduce poverty which is what Mr. Biden is seeking. It also says child poverty dropped in the Trump term in office from faster growth citing a Pew Research survey, yet ignores the effects of the pandemic that worsened poverty, child poverty and deep poverty, bringing back the need for government to play a significant role in building both growth in the economy and fairness for families and workers in a way that restores the credibility of democracy in America.

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There is a 40% drop in migrant flows through Mexico from Guatemala to the U.S. This follows action by Mexican authorites at its border with Guatemala after Mexico signed an agreement with the U.S. to control flow of migrants from Guatemala.

A recent poll by the Reforma newspaper shows 55% of Mexicans are in favor of deporting illegal immigrants, and most agree they are a burden on Mexico.  Mr. Lopez Obrador reversed an earlier policy of allowing transit of migrants from Guatemala to avoid new tariffs by president Trump on Mexican goods. Since then relations have improved between the U.S. and Mexico, and Mexico also agreed to labor protections and higher wages to protect its status as a regional hub for North America for auto production. 

The result of the deploying of the new National Guard set up by Mexico at the border with Guatemala is to dissuade migrants from making the journey.

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DJT deportation sweep in Chicago. DJT's model is Operation Wetback deportation of Eisenhower administration in 1954 after the Truman administration had appointed a commission in 1952 to investigate the issues from large scale illegal migration. Truman appointed the commission as he objected to racial quotas against Asians. The US Congress passed the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1952, vetoed by Truman, the veto was overridden in the US Congress.  Operation Wetback of Eisenhower in 1954, conducted by Lt. Gen. Joseph Swing, and Attorney General Herbert Brownell, returned about 1.2 million migrants from Mexico who had crossed the US Border back to Mexico by ship or by road into the interior of Mexico. From 1942 for each year the immigration enforcement increased from 12000 in 1942 to 727,000 in 1952, the last year of the Truman administration. This is a pattern similar to what was seen in 2014-2024 under Obama-Trump-Biden. ...

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Comments about immigration policy by Donald Trump, candidate for the Republican nomination for president in the 2016 election, create uneasiness in Mexico. Trump says he would block the billions of dollars that illegal immigrants from Mexico in the U.S. send back to Mexico, and deport millions of Mexicans in the U.S. illegally back to Mexico.