LyrArc Article Gist
The northeastern region of Brazil, the poorest region of Brazil, has benefitted from the economic expansion in Brazil. The region's GDP went up by 4.2% a year for the last ten years compared to 3.6% for Brazil. Bolsa Familia, President Lula's anti-poverty programme has benefitted the northeast, but the Getulio Vargas research institute shows three quarters of growth coming from earnings and expansion of export based agriculture in soyabeans and other products and from mining export industries. Projects in the northeast include development of the port and industrial area around Suape. A petrochemical plant, a shipyard and a Petrobras refinery, are under construction. A new railway will link Suape to the interior. Much of the development is for export industries in soyabeans and iron ore, and for the rail and port infrastructure that supports these exports to China. As a result the development looks similiar to what is happening in Australia with the huge expansion in rail and port infrastructure in that country to support iron ore and other mining exports to China. Any slow down in China will affect Brazil as the IMF has recently warned, because of an overdependence on commodity exports to China. Alexandre Rands of local Datametrica consultancy points to this when he says that infrastructure booms while helpful are not enough to sustain development. Big firms train the workers they need which is how Brazilian companies cope with a weak educational system. Schools in the northeast are however not getting the financial support to improve education, a situation that affects Brazil as a whole, but is even more evident in the northeast....

LyrArc Article Gist
Sheila Bair, former head of the U.S. FDIC, points out flaws in the rules for capital adequacy ratios and risk weighted assets which allow banks to increase their capital adequacy ratios. The ratios show the financial strength of the banks and their ability to absorb losses, which makes their accurate calculation very important for the safety of the U.S. banking system, especially with large "too big to fail" banks. Bair says the 2013 U.S. Fed stress tests showed Bank of America as having a capital adequacy ratio of 11.4%, when it should actually be 7.8% without the risk weighted adjustment. The mortgage banking crisis showed how the risk wieighting can be flawed and give a distorted representation of the acutal risks facing the banks in its assets. For Morgan Stanley the 2013 stress tess by the U.S. Fed showed the capital adequacy ratio at 14%, taking out the risk weighting adjustment this drops to 7%. Bair says its not the idea of risk weighting that is the problem, but the way it is applied- for example considering sovereign government bonds in the eurozone as zero risk, or that only 20% of the accounting value of debt one banks buys from another bank is to be taken into account in setting the ratio. Go back to the drawing board she says, it makes no sense that Citibank debt be shown as having one fifth risk of IBM's. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The Pirate Party enable's participation by members using its software Liquid Level Feedback. It helps harnesss the internet for what it does. As founder Rick Falkvinge and others who see the potential of the internet in new ways put it: first there was the written word for people to communicate by reading, then the printing press of Gutenberg in Mainz, Germany, sometime in the mid-15th century, so that people could read in the language written for large numbers of people. Now with binary code and technology for the internet it is possible to communicate for large numbers of people- with a final barrier of language removed with automatic translation- creating an active participatory community. The language barrier removed creates a world community, making the essential step needed to cope with the problems created by industry and finance- which operates in an interconnected manner worldwide without any element of participation of an interconnected community worldwide- as seen in the total lack of participation of the global public experienced during the 2008 global banking and financial crisis. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Zardari is described as "very, very weak" by the administration, and his popularity is only in the double digits compared to 83% says the NYT. From the standpoint of democratically elected government it is important to note that Zardari himself was never directly elected, and is highly unpopular and weak, and known for corruption. If anew election was held today its highly unlikely that he would be elected. Even Benazir Bhutto's popularity may be aresult of years of military rule, and the efforts by General Musharraf to suppress freedoms and prolong his rule. Her party came to power in addition from a sympathy vote after the Musharraf government did little to provide the securtiy that could have prevented her from being shot at an election rally. With the lack of good alternatives -not the military which has provoked wars with India, not the Bhutto parties which have lasted for only short periods marked by corruption, and its not clear if the Sharif governments have done much better- its hard to say how the people of Pakistan can register their voice for responsibile democratic government which works diligently to bring services in healthcare, education, and build infrastructure, for Pakistan to keep up with the region's development....

LyrArc Article Gist
Holbrooke, special envoy to South Asia, meets with leaders and civilians in Pakistan.

LyrArc Article Gist
The FDIC with help from the Treasury would bail out the creditors and the counter parties in the event a large financial institution fails. And then the FDIC would collect the money from some 120 banks. This is the idea behind a Geithner- Rep. Frank proposal. But critics point are skeptical whether the FDIC can collect the money from banks, which would be too weak themselves in a financial crisis. One critic said it allows the government to spend another $1 trillion to bailout banks, and then perhaps in one year or a hundred years collect that money back.

LyrArc Article Gist
Most Americans pay less in taxes, including state, local and federal taxes, today than in 1980 in inflation adjusted dollars. The taxes have gone down by 2-3% for incomes in the range of $50,000 to $150,000, and gone down by 3-4% for incomes between $150,000 and $350,000. Taxes have gone down over 7% for incomes above $350,000. The main reason is the decline in federal income taxes.Tax rates increased in the period to 1990 and declined from 1990 to 2010. The Democratic party and president Obama are pushing for increase in taxes for incomes above $250,000. Republicans are resisting the changes citing disincentives to investment and growth for small business which generates a large proportion of new jobs created in the U.S. economy. The New York Times study shows the percent of the U.S. population that makes between $200,000 and $350,000 almost doubling in the period 1980-2010 and at the same time its share of the U.S. income remaining the same - many small business owners who hire employees would fall into this income category. Republican's response is for tax reforms that reduce loopholes, deductions and other tax expeditures that disproportionately help the wealthy. Democrats say this cannot create enough revenues to address the deficit, when mortgage deductions, charitable deductions are excluded. The back and forth is leading to stalemate but also opening up discussion for the first time on whether the mortgage and charitable deductions make sense in today's environment. A significant portion of revenues lost in the mortgage deduction goes to affluent households, subsidizing larger borrowings to build larger homes than otherwise, according to the Brookings Institution. Politicians have resisted changes that would go against powerful lobyying groups in the past, yet the impasse has opened up new thinking outside the box because of the pressing need to come up with a solution....

LyrArc Article Gist
The financial system for mortgages and the legal system are on a collision course say experts. The courts require due process, and one expert discounts reassurances from banks, because it does not go into how easily banks can prove ownership of the underlying mortgages. A legal expert at Georgetown University, sees a scenario in which the whole system comes to a halt, if instead of being lost, it is shown that mortgage documents were not properly transferred during each step of the securitization process. Much of the paperwork was rushed through in a mass production line during the recent wave of foreclosures, because the banks did not have the people and technology in place to deal with it- as pointed out in a Washington Post investigative report.

LyrArc Article Gist
A lot of the same subprime lenders who had questionable ethical practices and in many cases defrauded homeowners are back in business as FHA guaranteed lenders. The FHA gets to pick up the tab for faulty lending by these brokers and companies. Inside Mortgage Finance, a research newsletter, estimates that over the next 5 years fresh FHA loans that go sour will cost thaxpayers $100 billion more. Risk Mitigation Group, a consultancy, says over the next 12-18 months there is going to be a FHA Insurance Armageddon. Founded in the New Deal years the FHA is supposed to promote first time home purchases by allowing small down payments, as little as 3%, and lenient standards on borrower income , as long as mortgage and related expenses do not exceed 31% of household earnings. Buyers pay a modest fee for the taxpayer backed insurance. Lenders and brokers can get a license to participate in FHA programs by showing industry experience and knowledge of agency rules. BUt experts say the FHA does not have the staff to deal with its expanded responsibilities under the new Bush programs like HOPE for homeowners, and does not have the IT systems to show if the brokers had violations and convictions in the past in their records. Overburdened, lacking the computer systems to track brokers records, and understaffed, the FHA has licensed some of the same brokers who caused the subprime disaster as they applied under different names and as different companies. After the subprime market evaporated in 2007 FHA loans are all thats available for many borrowers. In fact by fall 2008 FHA loans accounted for 26% of all new mortgages issued nationwide, up from only 4% a year earlier. The Bush administration and FHA extended $300 billion in loan guarantees to HOPE. And these brokers who defraud investors with deceptive practices are known to put down even disabled people as employed, and show incomes that are not verified. Once these loans are sold as securities these brokers engaged in deceptive practives have collected their fees and being FHA guaranteed they hold their value as securities, except that the losses as they default are the taxpayers responsibility. This is the $100 billion in losses that Inside Mortgage Finance is warning about. Along the way it leaves a trail of trouble for homeowners, state agencies trying to stem these practices, and taxpayers. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Ron Wyden, Democratic Senator from Oregon, on maintaining competitive choice for 200 million Americans who have to buy insurance outside the Exchange proposed in many of the bills being put forward in the U.S. Congress. This lack of choice between seriously competitive plans will leave the situation in the same way that it is today, with little hope for controlling runaway costs and doom health care reform. The key to controlling costs says Wyden is introducing choice and competition. Wyden will introduce this plan as an amendment called Free Choice to legislation being debated in Congress.

LyrArc Article Gist
Peter Coy says that as long as unemployment numbers keep going up and foreclosures keep increasing as aresult of the job losses housing prices will keep falling. He says that they may have to fall 20% more than the level they are at today. And that the foreclosure levels could become atidal wave if it becomes easier for alot of people to just hand their keys to the banks. This was what Martin Feldstein warned aginst in the WSJ oped pages several times in 2008. As more people are under water it makes sense to just hand the keys to the banks, and as long as this goes on, the economic recovery will be put off. A study cited by Coy done by Reinhart and Rogoff shows that housing crisis of this magnitude last about 6 years before all the bad effects wear off. And in addition to housing there are other things at work in this crisis especially in the job loss rate which is increasing (663,000 jobs lost in March), and the readjustment in savings rate upto 6.4% according to BW for 2009 till March, which suggests a serious drop in the consumption rate is underway and may go on for several years crimping demand and increasing unused manufacturing capacity. The stories in the media and other information reinforce this statistical information. The bit of good new from hard hit housing markets in California and Nevada and other staes has to be seen as no more than a limited play in the foreclosure markets, that does little to the broad brush strokes that are ocurring on the national and world landscapes in job losses and consumption. Coy a veteran analyst who has covered the housing market and warned during the boom of the likelihood of abust in a cover issue at the time, brings experience and reflection to the developments, and urges serious caution in interpreting signals that may have no broad meaning....

LyrArc Article Gist
A detailed account of how the American airstrikes in Farah province look from the ground. CIvilians who may not have much to do with the Taliban get caught in these strikes, and burned bodies of women, girls, children are to be found along with destroyed homes. It only creates new volunteers among the young for the Taliban and legitimizes anti-American feelings after bombings of this kind. Its also exactly as the Taliban intended it, as they hid among the civilians with this in mind. US soldiers outnumbered in difficult terrain and vast spaces call in airstrikes after ambushes and difficult fights. The US has to do some serious problem solving on this one, or risk losing the support of ordinary Afghans , and with it the war. These are some of the tough choices in this war, with what kind of air support to fight this war. One that is pinpoint and based on accurate intelligence and in skirmishes in the open, but avoiding the kind that gets close to civilian areas. And finding other ways to tackle the problems. Having popular support is critical, and providing security is critical, which calls for more feet on the ground, more aid workers on the ground, and more to show for these efforts in reduced casualties and better lives of the people in each area. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The Labour leader and prime minister of Britain met Donald Trump during a trip to speak at the UN General Assembly in New York on September 26, 2024 Starmer has misgivings that Trump may withhold support for the United Nations and its framework for maintaining peace in the world, and tackling issues of development and climate change. Britain's leader Starmer told the UN General Assembly- "People talk about an age of polarization, impunity, instability and an unraveling of the U.N. charter. And I feel a sense of fatalism has taken hold.” “But our task is to say no … This is the moment to reassert fundamental principles and our willingness to defend them. To recommit to the U.N., to internationalism, to the rule of law.” With Macron's shaky coalition government in France, and a coalition government in Germany with less popular Greens, FDP and Social Democrats, Russia engaged in a conflict with NATO in Ukraine, Starmer speaks for Europe at an important time to recommit to the UN Charter and uphold the principles of the UN for the betterment of mankind. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
This editorial in the Wshington Post is sharply critical of the Obama administration's policies of inaction in Syria and Iraq. It says president Obama and his administration will have to answer for the policies to the American people and the people of the Middle East and Europe.

LyrArc Article Gist
A sobering view of international conflicts looking at the ones in the English experience, with the Scots and the Irish. The conflict with the Scots actually went on from 1296 when King Edward I tried to claim the throne of Scotland with resistance from William Wallace and Robert Bruce, with terrorist tactics, frequent burning, looting and killing on both sides. And many battles that were inconclusive. The accession of Scottish person to the English throne as James I did not end it and it was'nt till 1745 till it ended. A referendum was held in the 18th century in Scotland and the commercial interests of Glasgow and Edinburgh prevailed in the end. Scotland saw the rich opportunities in trade and commerce from the expanding British Empire. Something that can be seen in exhibits at the Museum of Scotland in Edinburgh. In this sense political rapprochment fails when the time is not ripe, and when there are other changes in society and economy things can change enough to create an entirely new situation in which old conflicts simply take a backseat to something else. For Ireland the economic changes of the recent years creating a vibrant Irish economy gives Ireland enough confidence in itself to work with England, and set things on the path to peaceful development on the Irish isle. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
This WSJ story shows how China started its steel industry from small beginnings when Chinese leader Deng visited a Nippon Steel plant in 1978. He made the decision to go big with Baosteel, with an investment of $6 billion, with the words- "if we do it lets do it big." This was 36 times the Chinese foreign exchange reserves at the time. From 4% of steel production, this went up and up, passing the U.S. in 1993, past Japan in 1996, and in 2018 producing three times the steel of U.S., Russia and China combined, producing 923 million metric tons of steel in 2018, or more than half of world production of steel. With steel China was able to build its automobile industry, shipbuilding, bridges, infrastructure, high speed rail network. This was done using global demand, subsidies from the government, cheap loans and tax breaks. Markets worldwide were affected by substantial excess production in China. From Baosteel the spread of the steel industry to all 23 Chinese provinces led to China accounting for 25% of world exports. By 2016 5 million workers mostly from the agrarian countryside were employed in the steel industry, helping China transform itself into an rapidly urbanizing and modern economy. It was a period when the rail network was tripled between 1975-2017, with shipping companies that ensured access to Australian coal and Brazilian iron ore. From 2011 to 2017 Chinese steel dropped global prices by 57% triggering closure of steel mills in EUrope and the U.S. About a third of trade complaints since 2001 by G20 countries against China are about steel. After entry into the WOrld Trade Organization Chinese steel exports rose to 8% of GDP from 2%. Subsidies, cheap energy, and shift of agrarian workers to cities. U.S. investigations around 2006 showed Chinese steelmakers subsidies covered 30% to 45% of the subsidized value of steel pipes exported overseas. China's steel prices were set 20-40% lower than the U.S. China responded to complaints saying it was trade protectionism. The WTO rules call for full disclosing of all subsidies. This was disclosed 5 years after joining WTO in 2001, and only for central subsidies. Local government subsidies were not disclosed till 2016- the U.S. says 15 years late. Still the Bush and Obama administrations failed to take action. In 2018 Mr. Trump seized on this as a campaign issue that resonated with American workers in manufacturing communities across the U.S. In 2018 November president Trump announced a 25% tariff on imports of Chinese steel. A six month probe by U.S. officials had already shown 40% of sales value came from subsidies for corrosion resistant steel from China. The U.S. Trade Commission imposed tariffs of its own from 39% to 241%, with the Trump tariffs of 25% coming as an additional tariff to tackle the trade surplus with China. Meanwhile in China the government is closing uncompetitive smaller steel mills and in 2016 it combined baosteel with Wuhan Steel to create a larger company, and consolidate remaining companies. Baosteel now provides the steel for CIMC to dominate the steel container business, and to make ship to shore cranes, and make the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge.  It also goes to show what can be accomplished from small beginnings for countries in the developing world from Asia to Africa and Latin America, with government and industry focussed on development and growth.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Experts say CEO's have constituencies in the form of employees, shareholders and customers. This has affected CEO's as they responded to president Trump's comments on the Charlottesville attack.  Even the cautious optimism that CEO's maintained during the early months of the Trump administration- as they sought not to miss out on representation on advisory councils- has now faded. Most CEO's have decided that it is not worth having this voice in advisory councils when they have to be seen as supporting positions on racism and culture they cannot support. One by one the actions by Trump on the travel ban, climate change agreement withdrawal, Charlottesville attack,  has led to a shrinking of support. From non-involvement in Trump's campaign but cautious optimism, to a sense that it is not possible to work with the president without violating deeply held beliefs. Gini Rometty of IBM told employees that dialogue was critical to progress, but that " this group can no longer serve the purpose for which it was formed."  A sense that not much would be accomplished, and the reputational cost for business was too high to make it worth the effort. In the span of 3 days three advisory councils to the president were disbanded. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission, tells Italian newspaper La Repubblica on September 1, 2014, that Russian president Putin made some abnormal remarks in a phone conversation. Responding to Barroso's question about whether Russian troops had crossed into eastern Ukraine, Putin is reported to say: "That is not the question... But if I wanted to, I could take Kiev in two weeks." The WSJ editorial on September 3 referred to an earlier editorial on "Putin Bonaparte," giving some idea of how such comments by Putin are seen in the media, and how Putin's actions in Ukraine are creating new tensions with the NATO alliance and the U.S.

LyrArc Article Gist
The Netherlands government of prime minister Mark Rutte collapsed on April 22, 2012, after the Freedom party of Geert Wilders said it would not support futher budget cuts. Mr. Wilders said: "We don't want our pensioners to bleed just to meet the dictates coming from Brussels." Government forecasts had predicted the Netherlands deficit at 4.6% of GDP in 2012, above the 3% goal set by the European Union. And negotiations that collapsed were about making $18 billion in budget cuts to help meet the deficit goal. Rutte will now lead a caretaker government till elections in September or October 2012. Credit agencies may lower the Netherlands credit ratings from AAA and this would raise Netherlands borrowing costs in coming months. The result would be to increase the deficit even further. The Netherlands government was a strong supporter of Germany to introduce strict austerity measures and budget cuts in the eurozone during the debt crisis in EU countries in 2010-2011. With the elections in France and the defeat of French president Sarkozy in the first phase of elections by Socialist candidate Francois Hollande, the austerity programs in Europe appear to be unravelling. The deeper Europe goes into a recession in 2012-2013, the more likely new measures will be needed to address competitiveness, growth, interest rates and overvalued currencies as opposed to largely fiscal and budget measures alone....