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Bank of England governor Mervyn King's speech at the Economc Club of New York in Dec. 2012. About incoming governor Mark Carney, King says "I think he'll do a great job and they won't miss me at all." He says one way or another the U.S. will find a way to avoid the fiscal cliff. He sees a tension between short and long term policy goals such as recapitalizing banks and having governments reduce their debt.

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  Th full push for industrialization and modernization happened under BJP party's Modi in Gujarat state when Manmohan Singh was PM from Congress party, with Modi's model adopted by the whole nation when Modi became PM in 2014. In 1947 India gained independence but remained a poor undeveloped country with a large population of 340 million lacking the funds for rapid economic development. It had experimented with elections in the 1930's setting up state assemblies under British rule. This continued under Jawaharlal Nehru of the Congress party but development stagnated under his successors Indira Gandhi and Rajmohan Gandhi his daughter and grandson. In 2000 the opposition party under Vajpayee assumed office and made the shift to a market economy.  Manmohan Singh, economist and head of the Indian central bank, finance minister gave India a period of transition after the government of Atal Bihari Vajpayee of the Bharatiya Janata party full term in office 1999-2004. He introduced economic change through the unwinding of the socialist economy under Jawaharlal Nehru, a nuclear agreement with the US allowing access to nuclear technology, yet failed to tackle a central issue in the way India was governed with leakage of funds for development through corrupt politicians slowing the pace of investment and industrial revolution in India.    ...

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The passage of another round of austerity cuts through the Greek parliament by prime minister Papandreou leaves him with little political capital. Greece's debt is expected to get worse as the austerity cuts worsen the economic situation. This round of austerity cuts with no realistic restructuring of Greek debt is basically kicking the can down the road by governments in the EU say some economists. The implementation of the cuts will be a major challenge for Papandreou's government, which won the election on the basis of a social welfare program. Some analysts do not expect his government to last for the rest of 2011.

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As the British parliament prepares to vote on Brexit deal put forward by prime minister Theresa May, Joanna Sugden summarizes what is expected as the next step if parliament rejects it.  Why are a faction Conservative members opposed to it? There is the Irish backstop which they oppose. Keeping open the border between the two Irelands- Northern Ireland as part of Britain and Ireland as a EU country is important to preserve peace achieved through the Good Friday Agreement between the Catholic and Protestant communities.May wants to keep the border open. Far right Conservatives see this as keeping Britain connected to the EU in some way which they oppose. They stubbornly hold onto this view. Add to this the opposition from the Remain campaign which sees leaving the EU as bad for Britain's economic future. Some Leave supporters now see the dangers of Brexit, especially leaving with no deal made with the EU. Most of the Labour Party members fall into this group. What happens if parliament rejects May's deal by a small margin? The deal would be renegotiated with the EU to tweak it for more support. What happens if parliament rejects it with a huge margin? This would result in several options. May could call a general election. Britain could have a second referendum on Brexit. Or in a chaotic situation Britain could leave the European Union without a deal altogether, something everyone wants to avoid because of the disruptions it would cause. May is using this risk as  a way to persuade reluctant MP's but it may not work.     ...

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Germany's social-affairs minister, Ursula von der Leyden, presents the "fourth poverty and wealth report," in March 2013. The issue of inequality is arousing public sentiment in Germany with this becoming an election issue along with the euro crisis and energy reform. The term Gerechtigkeit means "justice" in German and is associated with the idea of equality. The Social Democrats Party and the Greens talk about this in terms of "social scissors" opening wider. The Minder Initiative which passed in Switzerland enabling shareholders to restrict executive pay has led to public discussion in Germany for a similiar approach to be adopted by Germany. The ruling Christian Democratic Party (CDU) of Angela Merkel and the Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU) party are different from other parties in Europe because of their Catholic and Lutheran roots which favor social solidarity. The FDP party in the ruling coalition supports free market principles but lacks popular support. The Economist cites the work of the German think tank DIW on inequality, which shows inequality showing sharp rise after German reunification around 1991, especially in East Germany. The situation moderates with improvements in inequality in East Germany and a slight improvement in West Germany after 2005. Both East and W. Germany have moved up overall in the Ginni coefficeint which measures inequality from about 0.4 in 1991 to about 0.5 in 2010, showing that the situation has stabilized at a higher level of inequality. Part of this could be because of the shift to temporary workers at lower wages about this time as German industry made efforts to keep wages down and improve competitiveness, even as overall conditions in the economy improved in the last decade. The Economist cites another study by the Initiative for a New Social Market Economy, a German think tank, which compares Germany with other members of the OECD. Germany ranks closer to Scandinavian countries in seventh place in this study, but does poorly in equal oportunities with 14th place. Germany lags behind other OECD and European countries in opportunities for women to work full time. Germany lacks enough daycare facilities for small children so that their mothers can work full time. There is a shortage of about 150,000 for preschool daycare openings in Germany, acccording to information cited by Deutsche Welle from government sources....

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February 1, 2011, the day when a million demonstrators were expected to come out on Tahrir Square in Cairo, the Washington Post makes a call for a democratic transition in Egypt. The Post says unfortunately the debate has been affected by considerable misinformation and mistaken ideas. It singles out three for correction. The protestors have no platform, that the radical Islamists are likely to assume power, and that the US has little power to influence the change. The April 6 Movement is a principal organizer of the protests and is run by young people. The party of Mohamed El-Baradei and the Muslim Brotherhood have joined together with the young protestors movement to have a common platform. And in a country where an estimated two thirds of the population is under 30 years, the older leaders in the El-Baradei party and the Muslim Brotherhood are deferring to the younger leaders. The movement is middle class, centrist, and its main grievance is the yearning for liberty. Eliott Abrams, the deputy national security advisor to former President George W. Bush, and Mr Bush on C-SPAN, have come out in favor of the Egyptian people's struggle for freedom. See Abrams column in the Post. The Muslim Brotherhood is unlikely to win anything more than a minority of seats in any elections, because the overwhelming influence in the protests is secular, middle class, and seeks the democratization and modernization of Egypt. For the American people this is an opportunity to support the aspirations to freedom and a modernized economy for the Egyptian people....

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Jair Bolsonaro, a former army officer, is expected to win by a large margin in the runoff election in Brazil against Fernando Haddad of the Brazil Workers Party. Crime, corruption including the Car Wash scandal involving the state oil company and politicians, a deep recession with the fall of commodity prices, have led to a shift in Brazil away from the Workers Party. Polls from Datafolha show about 60% of the vote in runoff going to Bolsanaro. About 30% of supporters say they are voting for something new after the deep recession and failure in providing government services with no money in the budget for adequate spending on infrastructure and services, education and health.  Both the centrist PSDB and the Workers Party that came in following the shift to civilian rule from military dictatorship in the mid-80's failed to win a significant part of the vote. The conservative PSL party only had 5 seats in the outgoing 313 seat house showing the deep dissatisfaction with the existing Congress and politicians in Brazil. Crime is a big issue with 64,000 deaths in Brazil in the last year, with failures in government services, including a failure to tackle a yellow fever epidemic over 2 years, are other issues that have led to the change in the mood of the voters in Brazil. ...

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The Dutch government of prime minsiter Mark Rutte resigned on January 14, 2021, after a parliamentary report showed that 26,000 families were wrongly accused by the tax authority of claiming child allowance since 2012. 10,000 families were asked to repay the amount leading to bankruptcies, divorces. Mr. Rutte admitted that there wa a breakdown "at all levels of the state." The opposition Labour Party social affairs minister at the time in the government resigned over the affair. The parliamentary investigative committee chairman says that the problem was pervasive at all levels of the government, including civil servants, bureaucrats and judges. There was he says systematic racism as people with foreign sounding names were singled out. Experts from think tanks say there is little political cost to Rutte and  ministers from his People's Freedom and Democracy Party. New elections are to be held soon and Rutte will continue with a caretaker government. Polls show he has 30% support twice that of the next party the anti-Islam Freedom party of Geert Wilders.  The government has set aside 500 million euros in compensation, 30,000 euros for each family. ...

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Angola's recent election gives the country a new president Joao Lourenco. Since independence Angola is governed by the MPLA led by Jose Dos Santos. Lourenco was selected by Dos Santos to help Angola navigate a difficult period when oil prices have fallen. Dos Santos remains a key figure in Angola- his daughter heads the oil company that generates 95% of Angola's export revenues, and his son heads the sovereign wealth fund. Lourenco's wife is an executive director of the World Bank, and helped negotiate a loan from the IMF for $1.4 billion in 2009. Lorenco is a low key figure who started by joining the MPLA in the struggle for independence at the age of 20, and is seen as a person Mr. Santos is appointing as he considers retirement.

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The overheating economy in Turkey. Inflation could reach 7.5% by the end of 2011 according to Goldman Sachs. HSBC economist, Murat Ulgen, estimates the current account deficit could reach 8% of GDP in the the 12 months ending in March. Goldman Sachs economist, Ahmet Akarli, says the government has kept the fiscal and monetary stimulus for too long. The AKP party is expected to win elections in June 2011 elections and the growing economy is helping it win voter support. His estimate is that nominal wage growth is 18% a year, domestic demand is rising by 25% and credit growth is 30-40%. It is proving hard for the central bank to control capital inflows which is making monetary conditions far too loose. In 2010 the central bank cut interest rates and raised reserve requirements for foreign and local banks to slow capital inflows but this was ineffective. Now the central bank is raising interest rates. Consumer lending is at an all time high and raising reserve requirements is not working. Turkey's new central bank governor, Erdem Basci, says the seas are choppy and a storm may erupt at any time even though things are steady at this time. ...

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A son of a Pakistani immigrant who came to England in the 1960's and was a bus driver, is elected Mayor of London in May 2016. Sadiq Khan founded a human rights law firm in London.

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Anton Troianovski reports for NYT from Geneva on the talks between Russian foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov and US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman on the Russian proposals for redrawing of the boundaries between Russia and Eastern Europe. Russia has insisted talks take place without the Europeans. The Russian view is that the current borders with strong US presence in Eastern Europe- in Poland, the Baltics, Ukraine, and other parts of Eastern Europe were a result of the new borders being thrust on a weakened Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union.  The US insists it will not do anything without working with its European allies, but is willing to look for some areas of common ground. European Union and Germany see the new Eastern Europe formed as a result of the self determination of countries in the region, and their right to choose their future. Ukraine was historically close to Russia. After the collapse of the Soviet Union Ukraine had developed two identities with eastern parts of the country closer to Russia reflecting earlier close ties and the western parts of Ukraine closer to Poland such as cities Lviv and Kiev reflecting the mood in Poland and Baltics for an independent Ukraine. Lviv is only 70 kilometres from the Polish border and shows traces of the Austro-Hugarian central European heritage. Kiev is about 300 miles from the Polish border in north central Europe. Elections led to governments alternating between close ties to Russia and distant ties to Russia with the two recent governments opposed to Russian interference in its affairs. President Putin responded with invasion of Crimea and forming an autonomous region in eastern Ukraine. In the latest move Putin seeks to reset the borders in a way that is favorable to Russia.   ...

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The Economist argues that a grand coalition in Japan of the Democratic Party of Japan with the old LDP is a bad idea, because it means going back to the old ways. It is these old ways with a collusion between government and the nuclear industry, says the Economist, that led to the nuclear crisis at Fukushima. Better for the DPJ to go to the country and seek a mandate in new elections.

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Iran's nuclear program a key isue in elections for leadership of the ruling Kadima party with Transportation minister Mofaz and Foreign Minister Livni top contenders both talking tough about Iran to win votes.

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A Pew Research Center poll in September 2016 finds 81 percent of Indians have a favorable opinion of Narendra Modi in 2016, compared to 87 percent in 2015. Even among supporters of the opposition Indian National Congress a majority say they have a favorable opinion of Mr. Modi. The author of the poll, Bruce Stokes, says the opinion of frustration of the Indian elites and media about the Modi administration is not reflected in public opinion. Recently the Modi government passed legislation for a national Goods and Services Tax replacing overlapping state and federal taxes that are seen as holding up growth.  Issues the Indian public ranks high are corruption, unemployment and terrorism.

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France's public finances and how this affects the strength of the euro-zone package of 750 billon euros to support eurozone countries facing financial crisis. France has a ratio of government debt to GDP of 80%, with BNP Paribas forecasting it to go up to 90%. France's budget deficit is forecast at 8% for 2010. And with high taxes it is risky for President Sakozy to raise taxes. The government's target is to cut the deficit to 3% by 2013. Part of the plan is to close tax loopholes, unwind stimulus spending, and to address the social security deficit. Weakened by poor midterm election results and facing strong unions, Sarkozy's options are limited.

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A 60% turnout in the election in Kashmir with the National Conference Party under Omar Abdullah winning 28 seats out of 87 seats, and the People's Democratic Party winning 21 seats and the Congress Party winning 17 seats. A coalition between the Congress party and the National Conference party is expected. The turnout in Srinagar the main city was 20%, higher than the 5% in 2002, which suggests that the terrorism in Kashmir is focussed in areas like Srinagar and in the rest of the country including rural districts the people are looking for ways to improve their lives free of the violence and poverty resulting from the insurgency.

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The Pakistan Supreme Court decides not to impose a prison term on prime minister Gilani for not pursuing a corruption investigation of President Zardari, opening the way for the present government to complete its five years in office. This has placed severe strains on the government in Pakistan. The next step appears to be early elections, probably in October-December 2012, ahead of the end of this government's term in office in March 2013.

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The EU agreement with Mercosur representing South American nations Argentina and Brazil is unlikely to go through with protests by French farmers who see exports threatening their livelihood at a time when costs of fertilizer, electricity, and other inputs are increasing. The French prime minister Attal says "France is clearly opposed to signing the Mercosur Treaty." French farmers are conducting a siege of Paris with tractors in long lines along the highways traveling from regions 300 miles away. A treaty with New Zealand allowing import of muttton is also opposed by farmers. EU treaties were used to increase export of cars and other industrial products from Germany, in exchange for allowing in agricultural or commodities such as lithium or metals, and soyabeans. Farmers in other European countries including Germany have also conducted protest in recent months about high costs of inputs and lack of enough government support. Dutch farmers were able to block some environmental measures on methane taken by the Dutch government and leading to a new government in the recent election. ...

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Mr. Erdogan is reelected in the second round of voting with 52.1% of the vote. Mr Kilicdaroglu got 47.9% of the vote with almost all the votes counted. The four percent margin also reflect the use of all state powers by Mr. Erdogan in the election. Overall it could be said that the vote was a close one after an earthquake and 40% inflation in Turkey. Mr. Erdogan efforts to run for another term is not limited by limits in terms a president can serve in Turkey. By the time he finishes another term in office he will have been in power for over 25 years. He faces difficult conditions for the Turkish economy which badly needs foreign investment. The mayors of Istanbul and Ankara the two main cities in Turkey are from the Opposition Republican party of Mustafa Kemal who founded the modern Turkey we know today in 1923 with the victory over the Entente western powers and Greece ratified by the Treaty of Lausanne. The future looks to be set by one of these two leaders as change is likely so that it has a chance to live up to the aspirations that surrounded its founding in 1919-1923. The transformation of a society at the dividing line between Europe and Asia into a modern state with the best that Europe had to offer from 1923 to 1938 including a new language that would promote the literacy of its people. Mustafa Kemal stated clearly in a speech at Nutuk in 1923 that lasted for several days the process that he had to trust would create a modern state that would compare with the best in Europe- the Turkish people and the National Assembly of the people of Anatolia and Rumelia. Mustafa Kemal did not see the six centuries of Ottoman rule as an example for Turkey in what Ismet who led the struggle for independence on the Greek front and as leading negotiator at Lausanne in 1923 called stemming from "the fire of his soul." Of Kemal it could truly be said he fought for the four momentous years 1919 to 1923 both the Entente Powers as well as the remaining elements of six centuries of Ottoman rule. ...