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This report calls for more vigilance on the part of intelligence agencies in Britain even when it comes to referendums and electoral processes, that the intelligence agencies themselves do not want to affect in any way. Only six lines of text could be obtained initially from M5 the UK intelligence service on its vigilance during the EU referendum. Intelligence agencies see this as something of a "hot potato." Staying away from this, though the 55 page Intelligence and Security Committee Report now says the agencies need to be involved to protect the democratic process.

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After the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Climate Change Agreement, China and the European Union sought to fill the leadership on this issue. Yet the reality now looks to be different. China decreased coal consumption between 2014-2016. Now China is ramping up coal generation as it needs to provide stimulus to a slowing economy as trade relations with the U.S. worsening.  In 2017 the trend reversed with state backed loans to help economic growth and surge in provincial permits.  China is now moving forward with plans to add coal fired power equal to almost the total U.S. capacity, according to Coalswarm, which tracks power plants worldwide for coal use. This would push coal fired production to above the cap of 1,100 gigawatts China has set and its current cap. Its current production is already about half of the world's total coal fired generation and quadruple that of the U.S. In 2017 China made up one fourth of total CO2 productions.  Canada is missing its emissions targets and is not likely to meet 2020 targets say experts. In the EU members reliant on coal power energy oppose EU parliament efforts to end subsidies to the most polluting plants by 2025, seeking delay of one decade. At the climate change talks in Katowice, Poland, these changes are facing opposition. As a sign of how the situation is changing since the 2015 Paris Accords, the protests in France by yellow vest protestors started in opposition to a carbon tax intended to meet France's climate change targets. That tax increase is being withdrawn by president Macron. Families struggling financially had a different perception of the increase in the fuel tax and even young people who support meeting emissions reduction joined the protests, as reported in the New York Times and The Times. This tells a lot about how the issue of climate change has changed in the public perception in three years. ...

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Lawyers Buchheit and and Gulati help Greece design a legal agreement that writes in a new collective action clause. The collective action clause ensures a 95% participation for the bond restructuring deal Greece is doing in March 2012 to cut its debt to sustainable levels. A similiar deal could be designed for Portugal says Mitu Gulati, a law professor at Duke University. Because Greece's bonds are written under Greek law, writing in a new collective action clause is a legal mechanism for achieving a meaningful debt reduction and bond restructuring deal- this is something Gulati and Buchheit figured out because of their expertise in this field. A joint paper by Buchheit and Gulati in 2010, first explored the way in which private bondholders of Greek bonds who reject a bond debt restructuring could be forced to accept the same losses as other investors who accepted the deal. They are now advisors to the government of Greece. In early 2011 there was serious discussion that the Brady Bonds debt restructuring for Latin American debt of Argentina, Mexico and Brazil of the 1980's, under which private investors traded in their old bonds for new bonds with longer duration at reduced interest rates and lower value- reflecting voluntary losses accepted by bondholders- was the approach needed for Greece, Portugal, Ireland and other eurozone countries. Then U.S. Treasury Secretary Nicholas Brady took the lead- in Landon Thomas Jr., NYT, 11/30/2010. Bondholders held out throughout this period, with Charles Dallara, one of the architects of the Brady bonds restructuring, hired by European banks to negotiate on their behalf. It was only when German Chancellor Merkel delivered an ultimatum by telling Dallara "this is the last offer," during a late night meeting on Oct. 27, 2011, at EU headquarters in Brussels, was an agreement reached on serious debt reduction- in Walker, Forelle, Meichtry, WSJ, 12/30/2011. The long delay meant a worsening crisis in Greece and the rest of the eurozone. ...

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Andy Kessler looks at the prospects for China's effort to dominate the market for advanced chips used in everyday devices, just as it did in solar panels and electric vehicle batteries.  He says Apple leaves US manufacturing technologies at a disadvantage by securing its M1 processor chip from Taiwan's TSMC. Intel has fallen behind in 10 nanometer chips and will need a few years says Kessler.  Kessler says Chinese threat to invade Taiwan which has made the US and the EU take a firmer stand on Ukraine poses a danger to TSMC which has 5 fabs or factories in just 1 science Park- Hsinchu Science Park. This poses a question is it safe to concentrate about 92% of the world's semiconductor production in one place Taiwan so close to the mainland of China? And knowing sit tight taking no action? Google's last chairman Eric Schmidt asks this question in the WSJ and calls for a new investments in the US to manufacture advanced semiconductors and other semiconductors for everyday use so that the US national security is protected. Even the $50 billion that is in Congressional legislation has yet to be approved by the US Congress, says Schmidt, showing that US Congress is not moving quickly to address this problem. South Korea and Taiwan including TSMC need to be told to make a large part of the semiconductors in the US and other locations such as India to diversify production. 92% of world semiconductors made in Taiwan that could be taken out with a few missiles, is no way to diversify manufacturing, when manufacturing can be done in India or other parts of the world with lower costs and with needed engineering manpower. ...

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The head of the European Centres for Disease Control ECDC, Dr. Andrea Ammon, says the Delta variant of the coronavirus will make up 70% of all cases in Europe by early August, and 90% of all cases by the end of August. ECD modeling shows that there is a risk of another wave like the one after last summer in Europe. The Delta variant is much more infectious than the UK Alpha variant and the UK variant much more infectious than the original variant. A 50% reduction in non-pharmaceutical interventions such as allowing the staging of events would lead to an increase in infection in all age groups. Latest ECDC data show 34% of people in Europe fully vaccinated and 57% with one dose. One dose offers much less protection. Younger individuals have a lower vaccination rate and are vulnerable. Also vulnerable are the older people not vaccinated yet. About 40% of people over 60 are not yet vaccinated, and 30% of people over 80 years are not yet vaccinated in the European Union. As in the US vaccination varies by region within the EU. All these vulnerable groups can be affected in another wave of the coronavirus similar to after last summer when restrictions were removed. Dr. Ammon is a former advisor to the German government. She says it is important for young people who are not vaccinated to continue to follow the strict social distancing precautions.  This is not happening today as governments are relaxing mask mandates in Britain, France and Spain. Soccer games are coming back to fan filled stadiums increasing the risk. Tourist spots in Portugal and Greece are now looking similar to the vacation spots in Croatia that increased infections in Europe after summer 2020. ...

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Reflections on Spanish democracy, 34 years after free elections following the Franco regime. No new solutions to problems of high unemployment (reaching 5 million "paradores" or unemployed as a recent front page headline in extra large print in the paper Cinco Dias declared) from the Socialist party and the Partido Popular. And a sense that the country is on autopilot, as decisions are being made by the EU on recapitalizing banks and other economic issues without a significant voice from the Zapatero administration.

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The minimum non-negotiable "breakout window" for 2015 nuclear negotiations of the EU, the U.S. and other nations with Iran, is a period of 12 months. The term "breakout window" refers to the period in which Iran decides to breakout of a signed nuclear agreement and rushes to develop nuclear weapons. It should take at least 12 months for Iran to be able to develop a weapon so that there is time to develop an effective response to the threat to world peace.

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China's battery company CATL's efforts to license its technology to American companies in the EV vehicle business. Contemporary Amperex Technologies China's largest maker of battery technology sees geopolitical tensions in a different way- business lasts for decades and governments are here for 4-5 years. It sees opportunity in the US and is using a model where American EV makers license technologies from CATL and own the factory in the US that makes the electric batteries. It has done this with Ford Motor which has its own factory and uses a technology licensed from CATL.

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A $9.2 billion loan from the US government supports US goals for achieving climate change by shifting from fossil fuels to electric vehicles. It also responds to China's subsidies to BYD and other EV makers with the US supporting its own EV manufacturers. WSJ criticism of the loan does not take into account  the need for the US to work with its industry for leadership in the technologies needed to fight climate change, and not fall behind other nations that support their manufacturing including China, South Korea and Japan with hidden subsidies and advantages.

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Boosting vaccine production for the Indo-Pacific region that includes Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam with production done through Biological E in Hyderabad will be discussed at the meeting with Biden. Japan will fund the project, and Australia will handle the distribution. This will be part of a followup to a March 12 virtual meeting of Quad leaders. This effort to meet the vaccine supplies challenge for the Asian region covering south east Asia and its population of 600 million will be one of the major outcomes of Quad countries collaboration, making it a peacetime collaboration that supports development in the region without burdening the financial position of any country.  The other part of US- Indian collaboration and Quad collaboration centers on two related themes after healthcare and pandemic. The immediate challenge is to tackle the breakdown in the supply chain for semiconductors. The US and Europe can no longer depend entirely on a supply chain based in Taiwan. The narrowest part of the Taiwan Straits which separates Taiwan from the Chinese mainland is only 81 miles wide, which makes continued dependence on chip production on Taiwan an unreliable option and the need to build a new supply chain for Japan, EU and US. Plans will be made to address this in the talks. The Biden administration has already taken action with Intel Corp making a U turn and bringing chip manufacturing back home to the US with $50 billion investment planned. India and other Asian countries may form additional options for semiconductor manufacturing. The third part of the Quad effort will center on US and Japan ramping up infrastructure building capabilities with India to build infrastructure across Asian countries and in Africa that will be financed in a way that will not have some of the liabilities of the Chinese initiative called Belt and Road. Loans given by Chinese state banks and contracts including manpower from Chinese contractors are now seen as not meeting the needs of Asian and African countries. These loans most of the time cannot be repaid as in Zambia, and other parts of Africa, and in Pakistan, leading to interest accumulating on debt and making future infrastructure development extremely difficult. The use of manpower from China also means no learning curve for infrastructure is formed for local companies and infrastructure comes without new jobs jobs being created.  For most of the period 1900 -1950 the British built Asian and African infrastructure. During the period 1950 onwards the US assumed a major role, as did the Soviets. This changed after belligerent Reagan administration policies and wars in the Middle East sapped the funds that could have gone to infrastructure building that would improved living standards in Asia and Africa. Mr Biden wants to see this change and this is what he meant when he said at the UN General Assembly today- " we want relentless diplomacy to take the place of relentless wars." He means every word of this and the diplomacy is between allies and also adversaries, but mostly with allies such as Japan, the EU and India to build a better world. That he has to do this quickly Biden is aware of that, which is why he said "the next 10 years will determine our future."   ...

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America has its own conversation points. Ischinger says we would love to vote in the US election as it affects us greatly. Americans would love to vote in the German and French elections as it affects us. As America fights to give workers and families their rights and invests trillions of dollars in infrastructure when will Germany and France do this? When will Germany and France fight to give all workers and families opportunity to get ahead and make a decent living? Are Germany and France aware that the Biden-Harris, Biden-Walz fight is for domestic policy to determine foreign policy and this is the domestic policy of America. Wolfgang Ischinger ,who heads the Munich Security Conference Foundation, writes in NYT about the importance of keeping the conversation with European allies going. He says US and European Union do not have a common policy towards China and this needs to be discussed and clarified. US and EU need to come closer for NATO to carry out it's mission now that the EU countries are shouldering a fair share of the defense burden in percentage of GDP devoted to defense. Ischinger says the Europeans are not investing defense dollars efficiently and developing European arms suppliers. His third point is that there should be consistent application of rule of law, democracy and western values in policy to build the alliance. He remains blissfully unaware that the same divisions that are fostered in America exist in Europe and some of them started in Europe- for Europe to be strong it must invest in its People, in workers and families and in infrastructure, domestic policy will become foreign policy.    ...

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DJT tariffs are selective and reciprocality makes them fair. This also cushions the impact on consumers and countries. Countries who have blatantly unfair tariffs for decades can then decide as in EU, China, India, Japan, S. Korea, Mexico and Canada, can decide how they will respond by looking at what they need to do for fair trade. Some tariffs are intended also as domestic policy for failure to control of fentanyl into the US as with CMC countries Canada, Mexico and China. US producers will make goods sourced from these countries at home and as DJT says about autos from Mexico this will lead to American producers in Detroit picking up production and bringing manufacturing back home to USA. Most goods Americans use were made in the US in the postwar period from 1950-1980, American manufacturing will get the boost it so badly needs after unfair trade practices from other countries in the EU, Japan, Taiwan and China. By April this policy will be in place, by June in 6 months the policies will be fully operational at entry ports in the US including Los Angeles and Long Beach. All tariffs are selective, carefully evaluated for individual countries and products and regions based on reciprocality a principle that is fair to all countries and the principle on which the world trading system is founded. Individual companies and industries that gain this or that benefit may present it differently saying is good or bad based on their interest and profits- for the US and American people the principle of reciprocality provides a yardstick that is both fair and in the long term interest of bringing jobs and higher wages to the US. ...

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A meeting of European leaders from Germany, France, Spain, and Italy with African leaders from Libya, Chad and Niger, comes up with priority steps to take for reducing migration from African countries to Europe. Steps include aid to countries with high flow of migrants. The EU gave $10 million to Niger to fight illegal immigration. The French president Macron suggested setting up hotspots from where migrants could apply for legal migration. Chancellor Merkel cautioned that this applied only to humanitarian refugees and not to economic refugees. The presidents of Chad and Niger point out that the cause is poverty, and smugglers need to be diverted to other occupations such as commerce or farming. During 2017 to August 125,000 migrants have come across the Mediterranean on boats. Smugglers put people on small boats leading to many deaths and rescue efforts. 

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Christy Mahon is a "14-er" who has climbed and skied all 54 of Colorado's 14,000 feet mountain peaks. She lives in Aspen, Colorado, where she is the development director of the Aspen Center for Environmental Studies. Christy has her husband as a climbing partner, who became a "14-er" before her.

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Akio Toyoda of Toyota Motors resisted making a full scale commitment to EV's leading to Toyota falling behind in EV technology, ceding leadership to Chinese, American and German companies. This report in WSJ looks at how this happened. Toyota vehicle sales are declining and VW has overtaken Toyota. Toyoda failed to make a commitment to a date for going all electric and this has led to criticism of his management of the company and seen as resistance to the climate transition to EV's in the automobile industry putting behind the period of fossil fuel driven cars. Toyoda is the grandson of Kiichiro the founder of the company when it was in textiles in the 1920's. He says the the role of CEO is very lonely and very hard, as his early years were spent without the team spirit seen at the top and he was closer to the grassroots. He is now chairman and has given the decisions of the transition to EV's to the new CEO, Mr. Koji Sato.

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Dependence on China increased during the Merkel years to extreme levels. A EU survey shown in this DW.com report shows that of 137 products and services deemed critical, including fields such as renewable energy and health, almost 50% are supplied by China and only 3% by Russia. German foreign takeover laws and acquisition laws are being upgraded only now after years of China's investment in German technology and critical infrastructure  companies. The Merkel administration took a lax approach to protecting German technology and critical infrastructure. A similar situation existed with the Obama administration in the US. New regulations give the German government a veto in all critical mergers and acquisitions. This DW.com report says that today Germany's protected sectors include energy and telecommunications, medical technology, artificial intelligence. The problems  with the previous approach in the Merkel years that showed a complete disregard for protecting vital technologies was that the Economy Ministry in 2016 was not able to stop the full takeover of the flagship German robotics company KuKa by a Chinese manufacturer of dishwashers and refrigerators Midea. In 2018 a Chinese state electric utility company SGCC sought to get a 20% stake in 50Hertz a German electric grid operator which was turned back. Only now with the entry of the Greens under Habeck and Baerbock in government has Germany adopted a clear policy of effective action to protect German technology and critical infrastructure companies. ...

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For the approaching US midterm elections president Biden seeks to draw a sharp contrast with Republican Senator Rick Scott's Plan which he says would worsen inflation and increase taxes on working class families. Mr. Scott's plan is for sunset on all federal legislation and president Biden says this would include Medicare and Social Security. Mr. Scott also wants all Americans to pay some income tax to have skin in the game. At this time about half of all Americans pay no taxes says Mr. Scott. Former US president Trump continues to lead the Republican party in 2022  yet he faces a very different Democratic party under president Biden. Mr. Biden's focus is on his $2 trillion plan for Workers and Families, rebuilding American manufacturing and renewing supply chains, unlike Hillary Clinton whose lacked such a focus. Leading to Mr. Trump's appeal with working class families and disdain for traditional Republican policies that secured him the presidency in 2018 by defeating Hillary Clinton. The changes with president Biden's focus on workers and families are happening also in the European Union. Scholz and the Greens in Germany, Macron in France with potentially Melenchon as prime minister, and similar changes in Denmark and other EU countries suggest that there is a renewed focus on infrastructure, rebuilding manufacturing and supply chain renewal, rebuilding incomes and lives of workers and families, in Europe and the US. ...

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This report in The Times take a look at the work Liz Truss has done as International Trade Secretary and now Foreign Secretary. Truss does not want Britain to become economically dependent on China. More than Johnson Truss is a UK Atlanticist who wants the UK to work with the US and the EU to build a western world that is entirely independent of China. Looking at her work and experience it would appear that Truss is the most underestimated of the candidates for prime minister, much more so than Sunak. She can be strident and aggressive but she has gone through a process of thinking and studying before that with a willingness to try new ideas. She come from an intellectual  family and one that was active in left wing activism. She studied at a comprehensive school in Leeds before going to Merton College Oxford  to study philosophy, economics and politics, and was willing to change her thinking when persuaded about a different course of action to get better results. She also gained the knowledge she needs to do her own thinking with experience first hand as Chief Secretary at Treasury, Secretary of International Trade, and as Foreign Secretary, getting trade deals with Australia and negotiating with other countries. Cameron, May, Johnson lacked this kind of knowledge and experience. And Sunak also falls way short of this kind of knowledge acquired and experience handling international assignments key to Britain's advancement after Brexit. ...

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Research shows that some countries will benefit more than others through climate change action for net zero emissions by 2050. India, Argentina, Britain and European Union, Japan and South Korea will be able to reduce imports of fossil fuels and invest in infrastructure, renewable energy, and create jobs in new sectors. Countries that depend on fossil fuel exports Australia, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Gulf states, will see much of their coal, oil and natural gas assets, left in the ground. The US and Canadian shale oil producers will also be affected, along with Chinese producers but with a broadly diversified economy the US and China will continue to grow. This paper with lead author from University of Exeter, in Nature, shows $11 trillion in stranded fossil fuel assets left in the ground by 2036 for major oil producing countries under the most probable scenario.  This means the transition will have to be carefully handled as some states such as Texas, Alberta will be hit hard in North America. The paper also shows that countries that are major oil and gas exporters such as Russia and Saudi Arabia will not be pioneers or push aggressively for climate change in the way the European Union, Britain, and India are doing at COP26 because of this problem of stranded fossil fuel assets left in the ground. China and the US have strong renewable energy sectors and will join the EU, Britain and India. ...

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The UN-Turkey arranged Black Sea corridor has enabled shipping of Ukraine grain to poor countries and countries depending on such supplies to feed their people. About 1 million tons were shipped in August and in one week to Sept 4 another 1 million tons were shipped. Russia says only small shipments are going to the poor or poorest countries. The figures provided by Ukraine are as follows:  54 vessels to Asia carrying 1 million metric tons of foodgrains 16 vessels to Africa carrying 469,000 metric tons. 32 vessels to Europe carrying 853,000 metric tons. Turkey is the largest recipient according to UN data. Also receiving largest shipments are Iran, South Korea and Egypt. EU makes up 23% according to UN data. Un says the first shipments were for the backlog of ships trapped in Black Sea ports that could not leave after the invasion in February of Ukraine. These are determined by international markets for grain. The UN says priority will be given to shipments to poor countries once a steady flow of ships from Black Sea ports takes place. Turkey which arranged the shipments and is closes to the Black Sea ports and Egypt have depended on Ukraine for grain supplies and rising inflation had become a major problem in the two countries. The two are also some of the most populated countries in the region. Turkey for this reason has a major interest in keeping this route open.   ...

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The changes taking place in Saudi Arabia under Prince Mohamad Bin Salman are the subject of this article from Prof. Mohsin Khan of Jindal Global University. Similar changes were initiated earlier under MBZ Mohamad Bin Zayad in the UAE which inspired the changes in Saudi Arabia. The effects are easy to see for Upward Mobility, Diversity, the economy, the relations with the EU and the US and other countries, the shift away from oil to renewables, women's participation in the workplace, and education in science and technology. During the last 50 years the wars in the Middle East have wasted resources in unimaginable ways, human and in trillions of dollars that could have improved the quality of life and ease of living of people. The result is that like Britain in the nineteenth century the US in the 21st shows no interest in Afghanistan or regions of South Asia which have scattered its resources. The shift now is to the seas and the region that covers the west coast of Africa through the Indian Ocean to the Pacific past Indonesia to Japan and the Hawaiian islands, the western coast of the US- called the Indo-Pacific. With the US, India, Australia, and Japan committed to freedom of navigation and international law in the region. It is all about investment, new supply chains, trade and growth, science and technology. And the UAE, Saudi now fit in within this larger framework, along with the European Union, and other countries in this region. ...

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Veteran reporter Mark Landler at NYT gives this exceptional report on Bolsover, a town in the Midlands in UK. Natalie Fleet, running for Labour for parliament, is a working class parent and a product of the UK Midlands region, a region around Coventry, Birmingham and Nottingham that was dotted with coal producing mines and industrial towns in the era before World War II. For most of the century till 2019 Labour held the parlamentary seats in this region and in the north of England around Sheffield. It was the loss of these seats that brought first Cameron and then Boris Johnson Tories to power, and where the immigration issue resonated for Nigel Farage's UK Reform movement that led to Britain having a referendum and leaving the European Union.  Today locals think it was all a big mistake, most Britons want to rejoin the EU, and they back Starmer's Labour party by huge margins after Jeremy Corbyn left the leadership position at Labour. Money that was allocated for reviving the town was never spent and the years passed with little change. Labour's Natalie Fleet attends D-Day ceremonies in the region and the one thing that is arousing Britons today is that PM Rishi Sunak chose to leav D-Day ceremonies the same day, ignoring the sacrifices of so many Britons and the need to keep alive the memory of a Europe united against the horrors of the war period- the need to work together make the world a better place. ...

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After elections this week in Germany the CDU may be faced with forming a government with the BSW socialist party an unlikely pair. Germany's political leader Sarah Wagenknecht considers the policy of letting migrants in to be "highly problematic", and making it difficult to focus on help for workers and families. Wagenknect says - "Not because people don't deserve a better life, but because our country is simply overburdened as a result."  She pursues a social policy that follows common sense on behalf of the working class and unions, and follows socialist policies for better incomes and benefits for workers. This is new to Germany says DW.com, yet it is not true for the EU. Neighboring Denmark for example has prime minister Mette Hendriksen who has said the same thing about migrants, opposing entry because it leaves the workers worse off than before and presents both a burden and a huge distraction from the many issues the working class face today. The Democrats in the US also are coming to the same conclusion as president Biden and Harris have moved to secure the Border with Mexico and cut unlawful migrant flows to a trickle in 2024.  These shifts will affect Scholz and the SPD party in 2025, as well as the FDP and Greens as they lose popularity in the former East Germany.  ...